Thursday CBB Free play. My selection is on Jackson State minus the points over Arkansas-Pine Bluff at 8 pm et on Thursday.

Jackson State has been the stronger team this season, both in terms of overall record and the level of competition faced. Riding a four-game winning streak, the Tigers will be eager to keep their momentum rolling while also looking to bounce back from an ATS setback in their most recent outing. With a clear edge in talent and consistency, Jackson State should be well-positioned to take control of this matchup, especially against an Arkansas-Pine Bluff squad that could struggle to match its intensity.

Arkansas-Pine Bluff enters off an impressive blowout win over Mississippi Valley State, capping off a 2-1 road trip. However, returning home in this spot could bring a letdown, especially against a surging opponent. The Golden Lions have had trouble stringing together strong performances, and they’ll face a tough challenge slowing down a Jackson State squad that has been locked in. Expect the Tigers to assert themselves and pull away as the game progresses.

Take Jackson State. Projected score: Jackson State 79, Arkansas-Pine Bluff 67.

Cal State Northridge vs UC-Riverside
5-Unit bet on CS-Northridge priced as a 2.5-point favorite.

The following NCAA betting algorithm has earned a 195-131 ATS record good for 60% winning bets since 1996. The requirements are:

Bet on road teams priced between the 3’s.

They are coming off a blowout win by 20 or more points.

Both teams have won between 60 and 80% of their games.

Team Dynamics: Matadors’ Surge vs. Highlanders’ BalanceCal State Northridge has been on fire, averaging 80.8 points per game (47th nationally) with a 46.2% field goal percentage (88th) and forcing 12.6 turnovers per game (103rd). Their recent 6-0 stretch includes an 89-85 road win over Cal Poly, showcasing their ability to thrive away from home (9-4 road record, 9-4 ATS). They dominate the glass (38.2 RPG, 62nd) and play at a brisk pace (70.1 possessions), overwhelming opponents with transition scoring (13.2 fast-break points per game). UC Riverside counters with a balanced attack (75.2 PPG, 148th) and a decent defense (71.8 PPG allowed, 168th), but their 34.2% three-point shooting (164th) and middling rebounding (35.6 RPG) could leave them vulnerable against Northridge’s aggression.The Matadors’ 20-7 ATS record this season (best in the Big West) contrasts with UC Riverside’s 14-13 ATS clip, and Northridge’s 5-1 ATS mark in their last six road games signals they’re built for this spot. In their earlier meeting this season (December 5, 2024), Northridge won 75-68 at home, outrebounding UCR 38-32 and forcing 13 turnovers. If they replicate that formula, they could turn a close game into a rout.Key Player MatchupsMarcus Adams Jr. (CSUN) vs. Barrington Hargress (UCR)
Marcus Adams Jr. (17.8 PPG, 5.2 RPG, 47.1% FG) is peaking, averaging 23.5 points over his last four games. He’ll face UC Riverside’s Barrington Hargress (14.6 PPG, 4.8 APG, 1.4 SPG), a crafty guard who scored 16 in the first matchup. Adams’ size (6’8”) and scoring versatility could exploit Hargress’ 6’0” frame, especially in the paint. If Adams gets going, he’ll stretch UCR’s defense thin.Scotty Washington (CSUN) vs. Isaiah Moses (UCR)
Scotty Washington (14.6 PPG, 39.2% 3PT) is a lethal shooter, dropping 29 against Cal Poly. He’ll match up with Isaiah Moses (12.9 PPG, 36.1% 3PT), who had 15 in the prior meeting. Washington’s quick release and 2.1 threes per game could outpace Moses’ defense, especially if Northridge forces UCR into scramble mode with their 12.6 turnovers forced per game.Keonte Jones (CSUN) vs. Kyle Owens (UCR)
Keonte Jones (11.9 PPG, 7.1 RPG, 2.1 SPG) is a two-way force, shooting 53.2% and anchoring Northridge’s rebounding. Kyle Owens (10.8 PPG, 5.6 RPG, 41.7% 3PT) is UCR’s stretch forward, but Jones’ athleticism and defensive versatility could neutralize him. Jones’ ability to crash the glass and run could turn rebounds into transition buckets.Dionte Bostick (CSUN Bench) vs. Nate Pickens (UCR Bench)
Dionte Bostick (14.2 PPG, 48.1% FG) is a dynamic sixth man, scoring 18 against UCR earlier. Nate Pickens (9.2 PPG, 1.2 SPG) brings energy off UCR’s bench, but Bostick’s scoring efficiency and knack for big moments (20+ in three of his last six) could give Northridge a decisive edge in reserve production.Why Cal State Northridge Can Win by 7+ PointsCal State Northridge has the tools to pull away and win by 7 or more. Their offense, averaging 84.3 points over their six-game win streak, outstrips UC Riverside’s 71.8 defensive average by a wide margin. In the December matchup, Northridge shot 47.2% and won the rebounding battle, two trends likely to continue given UCR’s 35.6 RPG (225th) and 44.6% opponent field goal defense (238th). The Matadors’ pressure defense (12.6 turnovers forced) exploits UCR’s 11.4 turnovers per game, potentially fueling 15-18 fast-break points—a difference-maker in a projected high-scoring game (154.5 total).Northridge’s 20-7 ATS record and 5-1 ATS in their last six road games reflect their ability to dominate as underdogs, while UCR’s 3-4 ATS mark in their last seven home games hints at vulnerability. The Matadors’ depth—eight players averaging 5+ points—outshines UCR’s reliance on starters (five players at 8+ PPG). If Adams and Washington combine for 40+ points and Jones controls the boards, Northridge could lead by double digits late. Their 80-68 win over UCR last season by 12 points further bolsters this case.

Free Play from Doc’s Sports. Take Pacific Tigers over San Diego Toreros (5:30p.m., Thursday, March 6) Steve Lavin has been a disaster since returning from the broadcast booth and he may not see another team. San Diego is 5-26 on the season and 2-16 in conference play. These teams actually split during the regular season but I see the rubber game going the way of the Tigers. The Toreros allow over 79 points per game and are terrible on offense averaging just over 11 assists per game (398th in the country). Do not miss out on Doc’s Sports weekend card featuring plays in basketball, hockey, and UFC 313.

Bet on Oakland/Wisc-Milwaukee under 146½ -108

Thursday card features the 2025 NHL Game of the Year, along with a 6* NBA TOP play and our Conf Tournament plays. Horizon League Comp Play below

At 8 eastern the Conference tournament comp play is on Wisconsin Milwaukee minus the points. The Panthers are in a nice system that has covered 8 of 9 times for home teams off a home favored win scoring 90 or less points and failed to cover the last game in the series, vs an opponent like Oakland that has rest and a losing record and covered their last game. These teams are winning by 20 points per game. Milwaukee has won 4 f the last 5 at home in this series and is a 21 win team. Oakland blew Green Bay in the first round but will likely get sent packing here. Play on Wisconsin Milwaukee. Rob V-

SU: 9-0
ATS: 8-1-0

Final

Team 79.1
Opp 59.9

03/06/2025 rThu 2024 WIMIL OAK home – -6.5 144.5

1* on Valparaiso

Jack’s Free Pick Thursday: East Carolina -4.5

I expect the East Carolina Pirates to be motivated tonight. It’s Senior Night, plus they want to avenge their 86-81 road loss at Tulane just a few weeks ago on February 19th. They shot just 40.3% from the field in that game while the Green Wave shot 48.2%, yet they still only lost by 5.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 8-0 SU & 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings. East Carolina is 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in its last five home meetings with Tulane with all five wins coming by 8 points or more, including the last two by 14 and 15 points.

Tulane is just 4-9 SU & 4-9 ATS in all road/neutral games this season. The Green Wave are 0-4 ATS in their last four road games in AAC play coming in. Bet East Carolina Thursday.

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1* Free Pick on Fairfield

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

This is a play on the MIDDLE TENNESSEE ST. BLUE RAIDERS for our Thursday Free Play. Liberty had a chance to move closer to the Conference USA regular season title but lost at home to Kennesaw St. in its final home game and now it will have to win two games on the road and get some help. The Flames are tied with Middle Tennessee St. for second place at 11-5, a half-game behind Jacksonville St. which closes at home on Saturday against Kennesaw St. This is going to be a tough task despite the Flames being 7-2 on the road but those seven wins came in Quad 3 and Quad 4 and they are 0-2 in Quad 2 road games, losses by five and 11 points. The Blue Raiders are in the same situation but they close with two home games following a three-game winning streak and wins in five of six games to get them here. Middle Tennessee St. is 10-3 at home and hosting its first Quad 2 game in what is going to be an electric environment while playing with revenge from a 10-point loss. This line has gone up despite 92 percent of the money being on Liberty. Play (760) Middle Tennessee St. Blue Raiders

HUGE Run rolls into Thursday. 169-151-6 +$1,710 Run and now Hoops is king. CBB ready with SEVEN Winners starting early and highlighted by Fargo’s Horizon Game of the Year and Big West Game of the Month. NBA 35-26 Run and back in action Thursday with a Top Play Signature Enforcer

[1%] Free Play on IUPU Ft Wayne

1 Dimer on Middle Tennessee