Stephen Nover

Stephen Nover

I have had only two losing season in pro football in my handicapping career. I have the best sources in the business thanks to more than 25 years as a sportswriter, handicapper and analyst.

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College presents opportunities that the NFL doesn't where sometimes you can actually find line value. My record the last three years in college football is 109-86 for 56 percent. I've beaten the colleges the past three years by combining many handicapping factors such as matchup analysis, statistics, history, weather and situational elements. Information is the key. I'm fortunate that I have many sources to rely on. Many stem from having been a sportswriter/sports editor for daily newspapers in the Midwest, South and West for more than 20 years and having been the sports gaming writer for the Las Vegas Review-Journal for 13 years while also having covered the UNLV football team as the team beat writer for several years. I have the knowledge, experience and resources necessary to win. I've won the past three years and I expect to turn a tidy profit again this season.

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Stephen Nover is one of the most respected NFL handicappers in North American with the record to back it up: 371-302 for 55 percent during the last eight years. All of Stephen's plays come with his trademark deep and unique analysis. Stephen is a multiple Rotisserie league football champion and was an award-winning sportswriter for the Las Vegas Review-Journal for 13 years. He also worked for the legendary linesmaker Roxy Roxbury, who was the top oddsmaker in North America before retiring. Don't miss out. Lock in now and get all of Stephen's plays at a top value price.

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Free picks

Game Details
Nov 26 '20, 12:30 PM in 1d
NFL | Texans vs Lions
Play on: Texans -2½ -110 at William Hill
Game Analysis

Deshaun Watson is reason enough to back the Texans here. Watson is one of the five best QB's in the NFL right now. But the Lions are worth a fade all by themselves.

The Lions have lost their last three Thanksgiving games. Their best player is punter Jack Fox. 

The Lions were missing their two best wide receivers, Kenny Golladay and Danny Amendola, plus their top running back, D'Andre Swift, this past Sunday. Matthew Stafford is dealing with a thumb injury. The result was a 20-0 loss to the Panthers, who were missing starting QB Teddy Bridgewater, star RB Christian McCaffrey and have a mediocre defense. The Lions managed just 185 yards and 3.4 yards per play. This being a short week for Detroit doesn't bode well for those key skill position players returning. 

The Lions have never bought into Matt Patricia. The Lions have a long and sad history of bad coaches. Patricia can proudly take his place among them. He makes Jim Caldwell look like Vince Lombardi. Patricia would have to win 23 games in a row to match Caldwell's winning percentage. That's how bad Patricia is. 

Detroit has failed to cover 15 of its last 21 games and is 4-11 ATS the past 15 times as a 'dog. There's the possibility the Lions fire Patricia if Detroit loses this nationally televised game, their lone prime time game of the year. Lions players probably wouldn't mind that happening. So Detroit motivation could be lacking. 

Houston is a highly flawed team. But the Texans remain dangerous - as the Patriots found out - because of Watson. The Texans' 3-7 record is misleading due to the brutal schedule they've played with six of their defeats coming to the Chiefs, Ravens, Steelers, Titans, Packers and Browns. Those six opponents have a combined record of 46-14. Watson should be in line for a huge game. The Lions are 28th in scoring defense. They had just one sack and one QB hit in last week's game against an inexperienced backup QB who dropped back 34 times. 

The Texans have stepped up their game and improved morale since the egregious Bill O'Brien was canned. I trust Watson and the Texans far more than Patricia and Detroit especially during a short week with the Lions so banged-up.

Pick Released on Nov 24 at 04:29 am

SERVICE BIO

Sports gaming writer for Las Vegas Review-Journal 1984-1997. Professional handicapper since 1999. Author of three books - Las Vegas Sportsbeat, Sportsgaming Beat, Winning Fantasy Football. Taught sports betting at UNLV. Former co-host of the Sunday Night Stardust Line sports gaming radio show. Was part-time oddsmaker and analyst for Roxy Roxborough. Recognized NFL expert with 21 of 23 winning seasons.