Alex Smart Handicapper, Premium and Free Picks

Its obviously taking some time to get this version of the Crimson Tide to tho jell, but you can bet HC Saban will be primed to have his team prepared for undefeated Ole Miss here this week, after his first home game of the season vs Texas ended in surprising disaster. Last time out after that debacle the Tide started slowly but the D, shined in. a17-3 win vs USF, and once again will be the key to a Alabama victory here today vs a program they have beaten 15 of the L/16 times. It must also be noted that Saban in his  career when his team is coming off consecutive double-digit ATS losses, is 8-0 SUATS the L/8 opportunities and is also 8-0-1 ATS when coming off a double-digit victory and 4-0 SU/ATS versus undefeated sides with huge DD margin of victory being registered . Its been tough sledding on offense for Alabama but this week vs a over rated Ole Miss D, they do enough to get us the win and cover on a beat down opening line.   .

Play on Alabama to cover 

BYU is in an emotional letdown spot after a huge win vs Arkansas last time out despite of being outgunned 424-281. It must also be noted that BYU has had huge problems rushing the ball, which is not a good omen here today. KANSAS is 13-4 ATS L/17. in home games versus poor rushing teams - averaging 120 or less rushing yards/game   

KU Coach Lance Leipold, has seen significant improvement in his team since taking over and is off to a  3-0 start in 2023. Also it may come as a surprise to alot of college football fans but the Jayhawks are the nation’s top-ranked team  overall in returning production, and are currently outgunning their opponents this season by an average +231 net YPG.

Key Trends:  Leipold  at home in his FBS career with KU, is  15-3-1 ATS when coming off a victory , including  and has only failed to cover once in 16 games when coming off an away  win, including 10-0 ATS when coming off consecutive victories. 

CFB avorites of 3.5 to 10 points (KANSAS) - in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with 2 or more straight losses against opponent in the first month of the season, after closing out last season strong with 4 or more straight wins are 23-5 ATS L/31 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors.

Kansas to cover

Jayhawks are the nation’s top-ranked team  overall in returning production, and are currently outgunning their opponents this season by an average +231 net YPG and averaging 37 plus points per game on the season. Meanwhile, BYU in back to back games have scored 38 and 41 points and thanks to not being able to run the ball consistently have been firing away down field via their passing game. Today Im betting on a back and forth all guns blazing tilt with the combined average score eclipsing this number. 

My projections estimate both sides will score 28 plus points. KANSAS is 40-5 OVER  when both teams score 28 or more points with a combined average of 77.5 ppg scored. .BYU is 6-0 OVER  when both teams score 28 or more points over the last 3 seasons. BYU is 9-0 OVER when they score 28 or more points over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 67.6 ppg scored. 

Leipold is 10-1 OVER  after 3 or more consecutive straight up wins in all games he has coached with a combined average of 76.4 ppg scored. 

CFB teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (KANSAS) - after gaining 6.25 or more yards/play in 3 consecutive games, with 9 or more offensive starters returning are 41-16 OVER L/31 seasons. 

Play over

Woodruff  in limited action has been brilliant  this season -- 5-1 with a 1.89 ERA. In  his past five starts, Woodruff is 3-0 with a 1.06 ERA and in three career starts against the Marlins, he is 3-0 with a 1.71 ERA. Rinse and repeat here vs a Marlins side that is slumping as is evident by three losses in their past four games. They also have lost four of five matchups with the Brewers over the past two weeks and Im betting on them adding to those negative numbers today.

MILWAUKEE is 22-15  against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season this season. MILWAUKEE is 38-18  against the money line when the money line is -100 to -150 this season.

MIAMI is 16-37 against the money line when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

MLB Home teams (MIAMI) - with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.70 to 4.20 on the season (NL), after a game where the bullpen was rocked for 6 or more earned runs are 53-109 L/26 seasons for a go against 67% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Milwaukee to win

What  stands out here for me when I decided to take the points is Sam Houstons  D, which held their first two opponents to under 260 yards  while holding BYU and Air Force to 14 and 13 respectively. With the Cougars off a TCU battle, and now looking ahead  the Bearkats have a team that could find their motivational skills tested . Houston has lost the stats battle in all 3 games this season ,  and just dont look all that cohesive vs a upstart that will rattle them physically. Note: Sam Houston is 2-0 ATS this season. HOUSTON is 0-7 ATS  as a favorite of 10.5 to 21 points over the last 3 seasons. HOUSTON is 0-6 ATS  as a home favorite over the last 2 seasons.

Play on Sam Houston to cover

Wow what an embarrassment last week for the Razorbacks , at home vs BYU. Talk about falling a sleep at the proverbial wheel. The reason why I say this is that the Hogs owned the stats battle, outing gaining the Cougars by a 424-281 margin. Now going against a team that they were probably looking ahead in a  revenger for last season loss  against LSU  (LSU beat Arkansas 13-10), I expect  Sam Pittman  who has only failed in  one of  8 ATS as is visitor with revenge  to get the job done here . Note: Arkansas is also  7-1-1 ATS  on the road with conference revenge on board. .  : LSU is 0-8-1 ATS L/9 when favored by 13 or more points in conference home openers. .

Play on Arkansas to cover

KState lost at Missouri last time out as favs and will now be very prepared to bounce back at home this week vs visiting UCF. Note: KANSAS ST is 8-1 ATS  after playing their last game on the road over the last 3 seasons. KANSAS STATE is also 11-2 ATS when coming off their first loss of the season. UCF against their only FBS opponent this season lost to Boise State by a 18-16 count, and things look to be alot more tougher this week against a motivated opponent looking to get back into the win column. 

UCF is 0-7 ATS after scoring 42 points or more last game over the last 3 seasons. (UCF beat up on a lower tier Villanova side last week by a 48-14 count ) 

CFB Home favorites vs. the money line (KANSAS ST) - off an upset loss as a road favorite, in the first half of the season are 36-1 L/5 seasons with the average margin ppg diff clicking at +23.6 which qualifies on this ATS offering. 

Play on Kansas State to cover