Art Aronson Handicapper, Premium and Free Picks

This is a 10* on MILWAUKEE

Milwaukee dropped a game in Colorado last night as they’ve now lost four in a row. This losing streak, which also saw them get swept at home by Cincinnati, has dropped them out of first place in the National League’s Central Division. They are a game back of the Cubs, who won yesterday. So it’s definitely time for the Brewers to right the ship and we couldn’t think of a better pitcher to have on the mound tonight than Corbin Burnes. With a 2.13 ERA and 0.84 WHIP, Burnes is having a sensational start to the season. The majority of his 11 starts have come at home, but the three on the road have seen him allow only two runs and seven hits. That’s in 18 innings where Burnes has 28 strikeouts vs. only one walk. The Brewers have come out ahead each of the past three times Burnes has started. Ironically, he didn’t have his best stuff last time. He’ll need to be better here as he’s pitching at Coors Field, but the Rockies also figure to give up their fair share of runs in this one. Colorado is on its third four-game win streak of the season. They’ve never been able to make it five. Senzatela is on the mound and he’s been the Rockies’ biggest money-loser in the starting rotation with a 3-10 team start record. Play on MILWAUKEE

AAA

This is an 8* on MONTREAL +1.5 (PUCK LINE)

Montreal again proved the doubters wrong by winning Game 2, 3-2. It was yet another game where the Habs never trailed. That’s been the case in eight of their last nine games, Game 1 vs. Vegas being the outlier. In Game 2, Montreal got off to a 3-0 lead and never looked back. It wasn’t until late in the third period that Vegas was able to get back with a goal. We think the Canadiens will, at the very worst, be able to stay within a goal of the Golden Knights in Game 3. The series is now in Montreal, making this the first time Vegas (or any U.S. team) has crossed the border into Canada in over a year. Attendance won’t be anywhere near full capacity, but it’s still an advantage to be at home. Montreal hasn’t lost on home ice since 5/25 and they’ve been beaten by more than one goal in only one home game during these playoffs. Vegas has just one win in its last four playoff road games, that being in Colorado where they rallied from an early 0-2 hole to win by one goal (3-2). Vegas has opened the scoring in just 5 of its 15 playoff games. When you start from behind, it’s tough to win by more than a goal. Play MONTREAL +1.5 (PUCK LINE)

AAA

This is a 10* on UTAH

Utah thought they had the Clippers right where they wanted them heading into Game 5. The announcement that Kawhi Leonard would miss Game 5 led to the line skyrocketing. But the Clippers pulled the 119-111 upset and are now a game away from advancing to their first ever Western Conference Finals. Last year they were in this same position but famously dropped three straight to the Denver Nuggets. They only get two shots this time, after starting down 0-2 in the series. We don’t like their chances of getting it done in Game 6. Leonard is still expected to be out. Same with Serge Ibaka. This is the first three-game losing streak of the season for Utah, who had the NBA’s best regular season record. So history favors them getting it done. We realize the same could have been said for Game 5 and that was at home. But can you trust Paul George to score 37 points again? We don’t. The Jazz scored 65 first half points on Wednesday and six players finished in double figures. The Donovan Mitchell ankle injury remains a concern, but at least he’s gonna play (unlike Leonard). The Clippers are just 2-5 SU/ATS when leading a playoff series the last three years. It was very logical to “count them out” going into the last game. Utah won’t make the same mistake twice. Play on UTAH

AAA

This is an 8* on the UNDER

This series is now 3-2 Atlanta after Philadelphia has blown big leads in each of the last two games. In Game 4, they led by 13 at halftime but lost 103-100 as the Hawks ended up taking 16 more shots. Game 5 was an even worse scenario. The Sixers led by as much as 26, but could not close the deal and suffered another three-point defeat (109-106) putting them on the brink of elimination. We chose to play the 1st half Under in Game 5 and even with Philadelphia scoring 62 by halftime, that bet was still a winner. Not pertinent to our bet was Atlanta having the huge 40-point fourth quarter. We don’t see that kind of offensive production from either side in this game. The Sixers have shot better than 40 percent from behind the three-point line for four straight games. It’s difficult to imagine them doing that for a fifth straight game. They’ve actually shot 51.2% overall in the series. Again, it’s very likely that number will decrease. There were 45 made free throws in Game 5. That’s yet another number that is unlikely to be matched. Atlanta is now 24-7 Under when leading in a playoff series, going 3-1 in that spot this year. Philadelphia was one of the league’s most efficient defensive teams in the regular season. Play on UNDER

This is an 8* on the UNDER

The second round of Group E action begins with Sweden taking on Slovakia Friday. Both sides were able to take points from their initial group match. Slovakia beat Poland 2-1 to get the full three points while Sweden played favored Spain to a goalless draw. While that was just one point for the Swedes, it was arguably a more impressive showing than what Slovakia did against a Polish side that was down a man by the end of that match. Shortly after Grzegorz Krychowiak was shown a red card for Poland, Slovakia struck with the game winner in the 69th minute. Their only other goal was a gift from the other side as Poland’s  goalkeeper committed the cardinal sin of an own goal. So multiple goals from Slovakia in this one certainly seems to be unlikely. Probably content with the win from the initial group match, they’d be happy with a draw here. Same for Sweden, who has Poland yet to come. A draw here and a win there would likely move them to the knockout stage. So don’t go expecting more than a single goal scored in St. Petersburg and there may not be any scored at all. Sweden has already played one goalless draw and this could very well be another. Both sides will be content to pack the midfield. Play on UNDER

AAA