This is a 10* on TB

One of these teams being here is not a surprise. That would be Tampa Bay, who set numerous regular season records last season before infamously flaming out vs. Columbus in the first round of the playoffs. This season, the Lightning weren’t nearly as dominant (didn’t even finish first in the division), but have enjoyed a far more successful playoff run and that’s really all that matters. So far TB has lost only four games in the postseason, none of them consecutively, and they enter this Stanley Cup Finals as decided favorites over the Dallas Stars. The Stars being here is a surprise. They went through the top two teams in the Western Conference - Colorado and Vegas - and have been underdogs on the money line in each of their L12 games! They’ve definitely been “living dangerously” though with the last five wins all coming by a goal apiece. Several of those have required improbable comebacks, something we also saw in the 1st round series with Calgary as well as the round robin. While Dallas did win the two regular season meetings (Both in OT), the Lightning are pretty clearly the better team here. TB is 44-7 the L51 times it’s been off a game in which it scored 2 goals or less. They won 2-1 on Thursday in the close-out game vs. the Islanders. Play on TAMPA BAY

AAA

This is an 8* on TB

After sweeping a doubleheader on Thursday, the Rays won again Friday, this time 2-1. They shouldn’t have much of a problem continuing to win this weekend at Camden Yards. We like them on Saturday as they look to strengthen their grip on the AL East. Baltimore is heading in reverse right now. They’ve lost 10 of 12. Yesterday marked the 7th time that the Orioles were held to 1 run or less in that 2-10 stretch, which has effectively ended their season. A big reason why the Rays are winning this division is their 26-12 record against the other four teams. That includes five straight wins over Baltimore. Charlie Morton has yet to win for TB since returning from injury, but he’s only allowed six runs in 11 ⅔ innings. He holds a 3.38 ERA in six career starts vs. Baltimore. Orioles starter Lopez has a 2-2 team start record this year after a leading a shocking 14-1 win over Atlanta earlier in the week. But that was by far his best of the four starts and we see him regressing on Saturday. Play on TAMPA BAY

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This is a 10* on OVER

Game 1 of this series went to overtime, so it ended up being an easy Over as the Heat won 117-114. You should note the Over was a winner by the end of regulation. Game 2, a 106-101 Heat victory, just stayed Under despite the losing side shooting 50% from the field. Boston also had a 13-point lead at halftime in Game 2. Blowing all of that in one quarter was a real shocker as Miami now is 10-1 SU/ATS in the playoffs, the only loss coming in overtime. The Heat’s trademark three-point shooting, which has been so big for them during this postseason run, was not that good in Game 2. They made only 32.6% from behind the arc. That they still won should frighten Celtics fans a bit. Down 0-2, you’ve got to figure Boston comes out strong here as they seek to avoid their first three-game losing streak in the bubble. Another loss would effectively end this series. But look for Miami’s three-point shooting, which is at 38.0% for the playoffs, to be better than it was in Game 2. The Over is 26-12 for the Heat off their previous 38 SU wins. Play on OVER

AAA

This is a 10* on DERN

Mackenzie Dern is the favorite here and for good reason. The 15th ranked contender in the Women’s Strawweight division is eight years younger and carries an 8-1 record. Her not ranked opponent, Rando Markos, is just 10-8-1 in her pro career. Dern began her career with seven consecutive victories, four of them coming via submission. Then she ran into Amanda Ribas last October and was beaten for the 1st time - via decision. But back in May, Dern returned to her submission ways using a kneebar to stop Hannah Cifers in the 1st round. Ironically, it is now Markos finding herself coming off a loss to Ribas. She lost to her back in March on a unanimous decision. One thing that sticks about Markos is how few finishes she has in her pro career. The number is just four and only one of those has been since 2014. Markos will look to take this fight to the ground, but that’s easier said than done against the superior striker Dern.  Play on Mackenzie Dern

AAA

This is a 10* on UCF

UCF has won a total of 35 games the previous three seasons and lost only four. The Golden Knights enter 2020 ranked #14 and are probably the best “Group of Five” team in the country. They open with Georgia Tech, who upset Florida State last week. Picked to finish last in the ACC, the Yellow Jackets were 13-point underdogs in Tallahassee. So it was a big surprise to start their season. It was a weird game with a 1 hr 45 min weather delay, plus the Seminoles turned the ball over three times. UCF, a more veteran team that has put up 30+ points in every game but one the L3 years, will not be as giving. The Knights are also eager to earn their first ever win in Atlanta. The program is 0-3 all-time vs. Ga Tech, but the last meeting was in 2000. The UCF program is a lot different (better!) now and ready to make a statement vs. a P5 foe. The Yellow Jackets are just 1-8 ATS their L9 home games and 0-5 ATS off their L5 straight up victories. Play on UCF

AAA

This is a 10* on NAVY

Navy had an absolutely disastrous showing in their season opener. They lost 55-3 to BYU! It was the worst loss in 13 years under Ken Niumatalolo and the head coach took all the blame. "Boy, that game was 1000 percent my fault," Niumatalolo said. "Obviously, we weren't prepared. One team was playing football. There's nobody to blame but myself. I erred on the side of trying to keep our guys safe (from COVID). I'd say it's the worst Navy football game we ever played." With two weeks to prepare, expect a MUCH better effort from the Midshipmen against Tulane. Against BYU, Navy ran for only 149 yards -- the 2nd lowest total ever for Niumatalolo in Annapolis and 211.5 yards below last year’s nation-leading average. Tulane played last week and only won by three (27-24) at South Alabama after initially trailing 24-6 in the third quarter. Now they turn around to face a complicated offense that’s going to produce a lot more than it did in the opener. The Green Wave were outgained last week in Mobile. They are breaking in a new QB and this is a lot of points to lay for a team whose only win over Navy in the L5 years came by a single points. The Midshipmen are 10-1-1 ATS following a loss by 20 or more points. Play on NAVY

AAA

This is an 8* on the OVER

This is a piece of daring scheduling by both schools. As of a week ago, Houston was set to open its season against Memphis on Friday night. Baylor was supposed to face La Tech last Saturday. Neither game took place due the opponents being affected by COVID-19. So the coaches (who are friends) decided to make “lemonade” by putting together the first Houston-Baylor matchup in a quarter century. With such little to prepare, we expect the defenses to be at a major disadvantage this week. It’s not like either offense struggled to score last year either. Baylor averaged 33.6 points/game. While that was under Matt Rhule, the Bears still brought back a senior QB in Charlie Brewer that threw 3,161 yards in 2019. The new coach in Waco is Dave Aranda, the former defensive coordinator at LSU. With just two starters back and limited time to work with his new team, Aranda’s defense will not resemble what we saw last year in Baton Rouge. Thankfully for Baylor, Houston lost last year’s QB D’Eriq King to the transfer portal. But second year coach Dana Holgorsen always puts together a strong offense. As for the Cougars defense, it gave up 34 points/game last year. Look for the offenses to go up and down the field in this Noon ET kickoff. Play on OVER

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