Will Rogers Handicapper, Premium and Free Picks

The 6-4 Marlins, seventh in OPS over the last two weeks, are hitting pretty well for a change.  The A's are in their usual spot; dead last with a .173 batting average and a .480 OPS in the last two weeks.  Miami is a good home team and will look to take the second game of the series against the Hapless A's.  Medina, the A's rookie (0-4, 6.83 ERA) hasn't pitched as poorly as his ERA would suggest,  if it weren't for the long ball.  He allowed three in his last start, and eight over 22 innings in May.  He will square off against another rookie, the highly-touted Eury Perez, who has started the season very well.  He shut out the Angels over five innings last time out.  Opposing batters are hitting just .188 against him over his four starts.  The Marlins bullpen has been uneven at times but very effective lately.  The A's pen is the worst in the league.  Take the favored Marlins on the run line today at -1 1/2.  10*!

The Twins and Guardians didn't score many runs on Friday, and with Allen and Gray on the mound we could see a similar result for Saturday.  The Under is 7-3 in Guardians games, and consistent (5-0-1) in Allen's starts.  Cleveland's rookie lefty is off to a fine season, and off a superlative 7 inning 10 K shutout in his last start.  The Twins' right-hander Gray hasn't been quite as good in May as April, but man, has he pitched well at home (3-0, 1.27 ERA) this year. The teams are supported by two of the most effective bullpens in the league.
Cleveland's offense has been a disappointment all season.  They struggle particularly vs right-handers.  The Twins, at 25th in OPS, have their issues with lefties.  Buxton, Correa and Gallo are all listed as questionable for Saturday, a possible big hit to Minnesota's offense.  Look for another low-scoring game and take the Under on Saturday.

It’s been quite a ride through the playoffs for us and the teams.  Now is when the Panthers take the truth serum of the Knights.  Are they for real?  Is Bobrovsky for real?  Can Tkachuk keep doing what he’s been doing?  Can the Panther’s patchwork defense keep it together?  Is Paul Maurice a genius?

Looking at Bobrovsky’s save % we think it’s otherworldly.  Hill’s is comparable and in the regular season it is superior to Bobrovsky’s.  Carolina’s approach is volume of shots from wherever (shot heat maps show the vast majority from the outside), so they made it easy for Bobrovsky to look impressive.  Vegas gets to the dirty areas and they will expose Bobrovsky like Carolina never did.

Tkachuk’s playoff history was mediocre before this year.  What’s different about this year?  He’s playing against the Eastern Conference, not the Western Conference.  He has had his way with Carolina, Toronto and surprisingly, Boston with little or no pushback.   Vegas is a different story and he will get push back.

The depth Vegas has upfront will expose the Panthers’ defence and show us that Forsling and Gudas aren’t what we might have thought they were and Marc Staal is not a top four defenceman.  Vegas’ third line with Karlsson, Smith and Marchesault will feast on Staal and the Panthers’ third pairing when they get a chance.  Vegas’ fourth line will punish the Panthers’ in their own end. 

With respect to Paul Maurice we’ll find out when his team comes up against a powerful Vegas team that has quietly worked through the Western Conference under the skilled guidance of Bruce Cassidy who’s former team, the Bruins, sputtered in the playoffs without him.  Take Vegas on the Money Line.

We have seen a stack of unders with the Panthers in the postseason, not in small part due to Bobrovsky's remarkable play.  It is now ten days since he played, so at what point does rest become rust?  He gave up three goals in his last start; I'm wagering that he will do at least the same tonight.  The Panthers are 0-5 in Vegas and those games have gone over to the tune of 4-1.  The Knights rolled out six goals against a very good defensive team in their last game.  The return of Mark Stone and Eichel's first foray into the playoffs have made the Golden Knights an offensive force to be reckoned with.  The Golden Knights have had five days rest and are mostly healthy, a rarity in the past two years. Let's not forget that the Panthers were a top six team in offense this season. Look for goal tending on a less heroic scale and a higher final score.  Take Vegas and the Panthers to go over the total.