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Rating: 2 Units

Connecticut won on Saturday night with a bruising effort against Miami, leading from start to finish. The Canes were no match for the Huskies and it was clear from the opening tip. The Huskies have won five consecutive games straight-up and are 9-1 against the spread in their last ten overall.

Rating: 2 Units

The Miami Hurricanes' first-ever romp into the Final Four, including redemption from last season's Elite Eight loss, has been a great story. The Hurricanes have a terrific backcourt and highly skilled role players that have helped the team average over 80 points per game in the tournament. Unfortunately, the ride ends here. UConn is playing at a level that I haven't seen since the 1990 UNLV Runnin' Rebels stormed through the tournament on the way to the National Championship. The Huskies have an average margin of victory of over 21 points, are shooting the ball at a 50% clip, and hold the opposition to just over 35% shooting.  This team can beat you from long range, averaging over 10 made 3pt field goals per game in the tournament, or in the paint, averaging 37.5 points in the paint per game. UConn will turn the ball over on occasion but this Miami team is not built to cause a high number of turnovers, averaging just over 10 forced turnovers per game in the tournament. And, if the Hurricanes start slowly, they will be in major trouble. The average score in the second half of the Huskies' games in the tournament is 46-27. Yes, the Huskies are beating teams by an AVERAGE of nearly 20 points in the second half of their tournament games. UConn will wear Miami down with too much size, too much defensive pressure and just, and just too much. The Huskies will roll into the NCAA Final on Monday night.

Rating: 2 Units

The Aztecs are 5-0 ATS in their last five games following an ATS win and 6-0 ATS in their last six games following a straight-up win. I'm a firm believer in San Diego State's defense, which caused a world of problems for the Crimson Tide and Blue jays. The Aztecs grind you down for the entire shot clock and waste no energy on the offensive end. They're capable of slowing down the Owls' offense and holding their own on the boards. Florida Atlantic will make this an exciting game, but like Creighton, it will fall short down the stretch.

Rating: 2 Units

Despite the uncertainty of Disu's availability, I like the Longhorns in this matchup. Texas has been shooting the ball extremely well in the tournament and doing so both inside and beyond the arc. Texas is averaging 37 points in the paint per game thus far in the tournament. Miami, meanwhile, is averaging 29.3 points in the paint per game. The Hurricanes are much more reliant on the 3pt shot and Texas has held teams under 30% from long distance. The Longhorns are an impressive 6-0-1 ATS in the last seven games against teams with a winning percentage of .600 or better. The Longhorns would be more vulnerable against a team that relied more on its inside play without Disu but they should be able to compensate for his loss against the perimeter-shooting Hurricanes. Texas has continued to overcome setbacks all season and they are up to the challenge in this one.

Rating: 2 Units

Creighton has played better than expected in the tournament, especially offensively. They have shot the lights out in their wins over Baylor and Princeton in their last two contests. One has to think that they will have a tougher time shooting the ball against an Aztecs team that held opposing teams to just 40.8% shooting from the floor this season. Depth is also an issue for the Blue Jays as we’ve seen them get a combined 16 points from their bench in their three tournament games, 14 of which have come from Farabello. If Creighton finds themselves in any kind of foul trouble, it’s going to be tough sledding. We just saw San Diego State upend Alabama in a game where Bradley finished with only six points. Look for him to bounce back and help the Aztecs advance to the Final Four. Consider that the Aztecs are 13-3-2 ATS in their last 18 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.

Rating: 2 Units

Gonzaga’s tendency to get off to a slow start makes the Bulldogs a terrifying betting option against a UConn team that is looking like the NCAA Tournament favorite right now. The Huskies have rolled through their first three games and have won all 15 of their non-conference games by double digits this season. Gonzaga is coming off an emotional game against UCLA, while UConn was able to cruise down the stretch, giving the Huskies an edge on Saturday night. They also have more size than Gonzaga in the paint, so this will likely be Timme’s worst game of the tournament. UConn has covered the spread in eight of its last nine games and is 12-1 in its last 13 games as a favorite.

Rating: 2 Units

The Wildcats outlasted the Spartans on Thursday evening, proving they belong among the nation's elite teams. This wasn't expected of K-State — it was picked to finish last in the Big 12 preseason poll — but the Wildcats' mix of transfer players meshed as well as first-year head coach Jerome Tang hoped. To take the next step, though, Tang's team must show it hasn't gotten too full of itself. The Owls weren't predicted to be dancing on Saturday, but like their opponent, they have silenced doubters with their consistency. Florida Atlantic showed Tennessee the door on Thursday night with a stunning second-half performance, but it can't win with one half of solid play tomorrow. I predict Kansas State wins and covers the narrow spread, ending the Owls' historic run. The Wildcats have been battle-tested, advancing to the Elite Eight after enduring a rigorous Big 12 schedule. FAU has proven that it belongs, but it won't be able to overcome its talent disadvantages versus KSU. The Cats win with grit — something point guard Markquis Nowell clearly has. Kansas State didn't lose focus when Nowell hurt his ankle versus Michigan State and won't take its eye off the prize at MSG tomorrow. Bet the Wildcats to continue to roll against the overmatched Owls.

Rating: 2 Units

Musketeers’ head coach Sean Miller returned to Xavier this season where he coached from 2004 until 2009 before leaving for the desert in Arizona. There is no refuting Miller’s success in this event, as his 20-11 SU mark would attest. Better yet, it’s been Miller Time when his troops are dogging it in The Dance, going 8-1 ATS overall when taking points. However, Xavier’s Achilles’ Heel in this contest is its dismal Defensive Field Goal Percentage (44.1 – only Gonzaga here is worse). Despite its glaring weakness on the glass, with Big 12 tournament champions standing 11-3 overall since 2000 in Sweet 16 games, and UT 20-4 outright against .750 or fewer foes this season, we’ll toss our hat in the ring with the Horns. 

Rating: 3 Units

Blue Jays’ head coach Greg McDermott is only 2-6 SUATS against foes off a win of greater than 4 points in this tourney. Interestingly, double digit favorites in the Sweet 16, favored by the most points in this round, are 18-3 SU, but have covered in only 7 of the 21 contests (7-12-2 ATS), including 0-7 ATS versus foes coming off a SU underdog win. In addition, double-digit dogs in Sweet 16 games are 15-6 ATS since 1999, including 11-1 ATS when coming off a SU underdog win (10-0 ATS versus sub .880 foes). In fact, teams off a pair of upset wins in the first two rounds are 14-5 ATS in Sweet 16 rounds dating back to 2011, including 7-0 ATS when taking 8 or more points today. 

Rating: 2 Units

Houston, it should be noted they struggled mightily against quality opposition this season – read: .750 or greater foes – going just 1-7 ATS. Ironically, each of Sampson’s last five losses in The Big Dance have been against foes of a similar ilk (Villanova last season). Miami is undersized, but the Hurricanes have elite guards and a dynamic small-ball big man in Norchad Omier. He's among a group of four Miami players averaging 13 or more points per game. A three-guard attack, led by ACC Player of the Year Isaiah Wong, could be a handful, particularly if Houlton’s star G Marcus Sasser is not 100% back from his groin injury

Sweet 16 Play of the Day

Rating: 3 Units

What has been overlooked this season, is Bama was the No. 20 in the AP preseason poll. Safe to say they have been major overachievers to the point they were awarded the No. 1 overall seed in this year’s tournament. And starting today they own the easiest path to the Final Four with only No. 5, 6 and perhaps 15 seeds in their path. They also bring the best Rebound Margin, and second-best Defensive Field Goal Percentage and Scoring Margins of all teams still remaining in this tournament. San Diego State enters with the second worst Offensive Field Goal Percentage (uh oh). The Aztecs are in the Sweet 16 for the first time since 2014, and third time overall. Seven players average at least 20.0 minutes per game this season, but only one player averages double-digits in scoring. Ironically. SDSU was No. 19 in the AP preseason Top 25, ahead of Alabama. With MWC teams a shivery 3-31-1 ATS in their last 35 outright losses in this tourney, you know exactly what to do.

Rating: 2 Units

This should be a gladiator-type showdown between two of the nation’s premier players in power forwards Drew Timme of the Zags and the Bruins’ Jaime Jaquez Jr, and both teams rank in the Top Four in Scoring Margin. Be aware that No. 3 seeds in the third round of this event are just 28-40 ATS since 1990, including 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS when facing a foe seeking revenge. The Bulldogs also sport the No. 219 team in the land in Defensive Field Goal Percentage, as opposed to UCLA’s No. 18 national rank in the same category. Therein lies your edge. Remember, since 1997 there have been four teams that entered the Sweet 16 round who lost the money in each of their first two rounds of the NCAA tourney and then met an avenging foe. They went 0-4 SUATS in those games.

Rating: 2 Units

CUSA programs are 0-4 SU in this round of the tournament, losing by an average margin of more than more than 10 PPG. Denting Tennessee’s stifling defense is priority one for the Owls if they hope to advance. The Volunteers rank 3rd in the nation in Defensive Field Goal Percentage (37.2) while allowing opponents to shoot just 26.4% from outside the arc, the lowest mark in college basketball. You can poke holes all you want at coach Barnes and his tawdry 20-31 ATS record in this tournament but he’s only the second coach in school history to make multiple Sweet 16s. In the end the pedigree wins out, as it almost always does at this stage. Lay the points.

Sweet 16 Play of the Day

Rating: 4 Units

This is familiar territory for the Razorbacks, reaching the Sweet 16 for the third straight season and taking aim at their third consecutive Elite 8 appearance. Getting here was not easy, though: CBS Sports reports that three Arkansas players fouled out in the Kansas game and two others finished with four fouls in the 72-71 upset. Then there’s a massive hangover awaits Arkansas, as teams in Sweet 16 games off an upset win over a No. 1 seed are just 4-7 SU and 3-7-1 ATS since 1996 when facing sub .790 opponents in this round. We think Connecticut is going to RULE the Razorbacks, going 24-6 SU and 21-9 ATS versus SEC foes of late (4-0 SUATS the last five seasons), including 6-1 SUATS against those coming off a SU underdog win. UConn is an outstanding 13-0 SU and 12-1 ATS record this season in non-Big East battles tells us Arky will get counted out here – a notion seconded by the fact that UConn is 16-1 SU and 13-3-1 ATS in this tournament against foes coming off an NCAA tourney upset win as an underdog, including 9-0 SUATS versus No. 6 or lower seeds.

Rating: 2 Units

Izzo enters on a 1-6 SUATS run of late against Big 12 opponents, as well as 0-3 SUATS in this tournament against No. 3 or higher seeds when coming off a SU underdog win when his troops sport a sub .666 win percentage. The only bad news for Kansas State? No. 3 seeds in the Sweet 16 round are just 3-14 ATS when taking on .714 or fewer opponents. While Izzo stands 16-12 SU in this event versus higher seeded opposition, he’s just 2-4 SUATS in those same games when his troops own a .676 or less win percentage and are facing No. 3 or greater seeds. The bottom line to us is we love higher seeded dogs like KSU, and higher seeded dogs in this round are 11-6 ATS since 1990, including 8-2 SUATS when taking 2 or fewer points. 

Rating: 2 Units

If previous performances are any indication, UAB should kill the Commodores in rebounding, particularly offensively which will lead to ample second-chance scoring opportunities. It nearly sank Vanderbilt against Michigan, and I think it will this time. The Blazers have a tougher defense than the Commodores and an offense that can keep up with them. Even on the road, I'm expecting UAB to win, and with the spread only at one point, the money line is the best option.

Rating: 2 Units

This will be a tough matchup for the Ducks, who could be without their top three players. Although it's tough to back a team in that situation, Oregon has been extremely impressive shorthanded through their first NIT wins. As impressive as the Ducks have been, I can see so many different scenarios playing out where the Badgers either win or keep this game within five points. Wisconsin has had some extremely close losses this season, including falling to Kansas by only one point earlier this season. Also, five of the most recent six losses for Wisconsin have either come in overtime or been decided by two points or less during regulation. Oregon is one of those teams that can make you look bad either way as a sports bettor. When the Ducks are on, they are very good, but they also have been inconsistent throughout the season.

Rating: 2 Units

The Spartans have won five of their last six games. They don’t have a high-scoring offense, but they played better in recent games, scoring more than 69 points per game in their last three games. Their rebounding was great during that span and they were very aggressive on the offensive glass, grabbing 12 offensive rebounds per game, so expect them to get a lot of second-chance scoring opportunities., They also do a good job protecting the ball and won’t give the Highlanders a lot of easy-scoring opportunities. The Highlanders usually play well defensively, but they weren’t as efficient in recent games, giving up at least 70 points in two of their last three games, so expect them to have a hard time slowing down the Spartans in this game. The Highlanders have lost four of their last seven games. They have struggled offensively on the road, scoring less than 70 points per game. They’ve struggled at the charity stripe, making less than 70 percent of their free throws. Their ball movement isn’t very good and they don’t rebound the ball as well as the Spartans, so don’t expect them to get a lot of extra-scoring chances against them. They’ve also been careless with the ball on the road, which will lead to easy-scoring opportunities for the Spartans. The Spartans are very good defensively and they played better in recent games, keeping their last three opponents under 65 points per game, so don’t expect them to have a hard time slowing down the Highlanders in this game. Go with San Jose State to cover the spread.

Rating: 2 Units

Looking at these teams, the greatest difference between them is on offense. They both play at a high tempo, rebounded well against their conference competition, and know how to stifle opposing offenses. However, Indiana State is typically efficient, hitting almost half of their shots and taking advantage of free throws. Eastern Kentucky is not, only hitting 43.5% of their field goals and missing nearly 35% of their free throws. Expect Indiana State's offense to make the difference in this one when they beat the spread.

Rating: 2 Units

TCU's offense was not their strength this season and had a few lulls on Friday, but overall their performance was impressive considering Arizona State's defense wreaked havoc on a lot of teams this season. That the Horned Frogs hit open threes and free throws could make them very dangerous going forward. Of course, Gonzaga's offense on Grand Canyon, but Grand Canyon's defense was barely 200th in adjusted efficiency this season. TCU's is much tougher at 23rd. Gonzaga's defense isn't great, and Timme's size could pose problems inside for TCU's offense, but I think if they play like Friday the Horned Frogs will take this game. Taking the points is safer though, so I'm going to roll with the spread.

Rating: 2 Units

Does Baylor have anyone that can stop Ryan Kalkbrenner? Unlike NC State, they have the size, with starter Flo Thamba, but I don't think he's good enough to hang with Kalkbrenner. If he gets in foul trouble, Baylor's options are either a freshman or a size mismatch. Unlike certain schools, Creighton knows how to feed their big men when they've got a good matchup. Then there's Creighton's three-point shooting, which is due to improve significantly from their Thursday performance. Baylor's defense is much worse than Creighton's, and their offensive output won't be able to offset that against another dangerous offensive squad. The spread is only one point, so the best value is in taking Creighton to win straight up.

Rating: 2 Units

The Gaels are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following an ATS win and 1-5 ATS in their last six games following a straight-up win. The Huskies are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games following a straight-up win, 5-1 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning % above .600, and 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall. The Huskies impressed me on Friday, outscoring the Gaels by a wide margin in the second half. They'll own a rebounding advantage again on Sunday, earning extra possessions and holding the slow-paced Gaels to fewer possessions. Sanogo played like a monster on Friday (28 points and 13 boards) and won't be held back by this Gaels squad.

Rating: 2 Units

The Golden Eagles have won 10 straight games. They are very good offensively, scoring more than 79 points per game while making 49 percent of their shots. They’ve taken advantage of their opportunities at the charity stripe, making over 77 percent of their free throws in their last three games. They do a good job finding the open man and they’re aggressive on the offensive glass, which will give them more scoring chances. They also do a good job protecting the ball and won’t give the Spartans a lot of easy-scoring opportunities. The Spartans usually play well defensively, but they struggled in recent games, giving up more than 69 points per game in their last three games, so expect them to have a hard time slowing down the Golden Eagles in this game. The Spartans have won three of their last four games. They are playing well offensively, scoring more than 71 points per game in their last three games. But they struggled at the charity stripe, making less than 70 percent of their free throws during that span. Their rebounding has been good and will keep them in this game, but they’ve been careless with the ball on the road, which will lead to easy-scoring opportunities for the Golden Eagles, who average more than nine steals per game. The Golden Eagles did a great job defensively in recent games, holding their last three opponents to 60 points per game, and won’t have trouble keeping Michigan State’s offense in check. Go with Marquette to cover the spread.

Rating: 2 Units

Kentucky is coming off a strong outing against Providence, holding the Friars to 53 points and 36% field goal shooting. Kentucky cleaned up on the boards against Providence with 46 rebounds including 16 off the offensive glass, while holding Providence to 27 rebounds and only seven offensive boards. Kentucky is 33rd in the nation in offensive rebounds allowed at just 6.9 per game, which is not surprising as Kentucky’s Oscar Tshiebewe is averaging 13.5 rebounds per game which is first in the nation. Kansas State allows an average of 8.6 offensive rebounds per game which is 226th. Kentucky has covered the spread in six of its last eight overall and in each of the last five when playing against a team that has a winning percentage above .600. 

Rating: 2 Units

Pittsburgh is allowing an average of just 50.0 points per game in its first two games of the NCAA tournament as the Panthers' defense has tightened. Pittsburgh held Iowa State to 23% shooting overall and 10% shooting from long range. Xavier is a strong shooting team, hitting 50% of its field goal attempts during a regular season, but against first-round opponent, Kennesaw State shot only 17% from behind the three-point line and cannot afford to shoot poorly against the Panthers. Pittsburgh has covered the spread in 23 of its last 30 and in four of the last five against a team with a winning percentage above 600. Xavier struggled down the stretch to cover the spread, failing to cover the spread in four of its last five. In intangibles, Xavier must play without Zach Freemantle, who before being injured was the second-leading scorer and leading rebounder for the Musketeers. Freemantle was also one of the court leaders.

Rating: 2 Units

Maryland survived a slow start to get past West Virginia but an opening 10 minutes like they had Thursday here could put them in a hole that they would be unable to dig out of against the Crimson Tide. The Terrapins played some stout defense against West Virginia to get through but they were helped by getting the Mountaineers in foul trouble, opening up the interior for easy buckets. Alabama hung 96 on the board with their best player going scoreless while playing just 19 minutes. Granted, Maryland is better defensively than Texas A&M-Corpus Christi but the Crimson Tide have plenty of depth, as evidenced in Thursday’s win. It also helps that they are playing in their home state. Look for that depth to make the difference as Alabama prevails to advance to the Sweet 16.

Rating: 2 Units

I can't turn away from a Penn State team that has thrived in close games down the stretch. The Nittany Lions are 5-0 ATS in their last five games and have gone 9-0 ATS in their last nine games as the underdog. In addition, Penn State has won six of its last seven games against tournament teams and covered the spread in each game. Further, the veteran Penn State team is not easily rattled and performs well above average in neutral site games. Penn State is 9-1 ATS in its last ten neutral site games. I expect Pickett to protect the basketball and create opportunities for his teammates throughout the game. Texas, which likes to move quickly, will be forced to adjust to Penn State's methodical pace of play and I expect this game to be a one-possession contest heading into the final two minutes. With that in mind, points are critical and I will happily take the 5.5 on the board.

Rating: 2 Units

Quite a bit in this contest depends on the health of Sasser and Shead. Sasser was an All-American selection but logging only 14 minutes while scoring five points in the first round was less than what the Cougars were hoping for against the Norse. The Cougars struggled to pull away against Northern Kentucky and one has to wonder if perhaps Sasser did more damage by attempting to play Thursday night. It’s safe to say that Auburn’s offensive production is better than Northern Kentucky’s and will test the Cougars’ defense more than the Norse did. The Tigers can hang on the glass and make things tough for Houston on the offensive end of the floor. Houston may win the game but it’s going to be a war if Sasser is limited or doesn’t play. Take the points and Auburn in what should be a low-scoring affair.

Rating: 2 Units

The Razorbacks benefitted from the inconsistent play of Illinois in round one, something that has been a trademark of the Illini all season. Kansas had some of those issues early in the season but the Jayhawks have been playing at an extremely high level since then. They played the toughest schedule in college basketball this season and have 14 victories over tournament teams to prove it. Keep in mind that Arkansas is just 5-11 vs. tournament teams this season. The return of McCullers has also strengthened the Jayhawks' depth and should help distribute the scoring better. Kansas has thrived this season when the scoring was spread out, as it was in the blowout win over Howard. The Jayhawks are 10-5 ATS in the last 15 games and I expect that number to improve against the Razorbacks.

Rating: 2 Units

Duke is playing its best basketball right now, as its group of freshmen is pulling it together on both ends of the floor. On the other side, I am not very high on Tennessee, as the injury of Zakai Zeigler has clearly weakened the Vols. Zeigler was a high-level perimeter defender, and the Tennessee offense didn't have enough depth to compensate for his absence. I like Duke by at least six points.

Rating: 2 Units

It’s safe to say these are not your Bobby Knight Hoosiers. They’ve advanced past the Sweet 16 just once since 1994. Yet they are 8-2 SUATS when dancing off a loss, including 7-0 ATS against greater than .666 opponents. They also own a few big notches in their belt, having swept both Purdue and Illinois while picking up a win at No. 3 seed Xavier. The WOM (Well-Oiled Machine) comes to their aid here as well, noting that No. 4 seeds are 50-8 SU in the opening round when coming off a SU favorite loss, including 19-6 ATS when favored by 8 or fewer points. Meanwhile, MAC teams are just 6-19 outight in the NCAA Tournament, and 0-3 SUATS as dogs of fewer than 6 points against the Big Ten in this event. In addition, the Flashes are frauds when taking on Big Ten foes, going just 4-14 SU and 5-13 ATS overall.

Rating: 2 Units

If it’s possible for a 30-win team to fl y under the radar, the Owls are doing just that. So disrespected is FAU, they were actually a 2.5-point dog in the title game of the CUSA tourney when they rolled past UAB, 78-56. They bring a glossy 7-3 SU and 9-1 ATS mark into this game when coming of a SU underdog win, including 5-0 SUATS the last fi ve games. In addition, FAU is also 11-1 ATS in games when both teams arrive off pointspread wins. Enter the American Athletic Conference tourney champion Tigers, off an upset win over a banged up Houston squad. They’ll likely pay the price today, though, as the WOM notes that NCAA tourney fi rst round chalk is just 12-25-1 ATS since 2000 when coming off a SU win as an underdog in a conference title game. And it doesn’t help Elvis fans knowing Memphis is only 3-10 SU and 5-8 ATS against .828 or greater opponents in this tournament. With it, look for the Owls to fl y to 5-0 ATS in their last fi ve meetings against AAC competition tonight. 

Tournament Game of the Week

Rating: 5 Units

Miami, the ACC regular season and Drake, the Missouri Valley conference tournament. A trio of 5thyear senior guards leads the Bulldogs’ attack: Tucker Devries, Roman Penn, and Garrett Sturtz returned with their extra year of eligibility after having led Drake to 95-wins the previous four years. The terrific threesome averaged 42.1 PPG, 16.5 RPG, and 8.3 APG. They match up well with a Miami unit that also emphasizes guard play. The Canes bring a wobbly 1-5 ATS record as a favorite in this tournament into this fray as well as a 0-3 ATS mark in its last three Missouri Valley contests. Making matters worse, Miami mentor Jim Larranaga is just 1-5 ATS as a single digit favorite in this tournament. Meanwhile, Drake closed the season on a 13-1 winning run. In addition, they were 4-1 SUATS against .750 or greater opponents this campaign. However, we saved the best for last, where Drake head coach Darian DeVries is 10-2 SUATS “between the 4’s” in games on a neutral court

Rating: 2 Units

Certain games have the look and feel of “upset” written all over them, and this is one. The Wildcats enter fresh off an opening round loss to St. Peter’s last season and are just two years removed from a 9-win season. Wooden Award winner Oscar Tshiebwe leads the nation in rebounding (13.1 RPG) while averaging 16.4 PPG. As talented as they are, or can be, the fact of the matter is Kentucky is 0-7 ATS in its last seven non-SEC battles. Providence bolted out of the gate at 14-3 before closing out 7-8. However, Ed Cooley’s clan made it to the Sweet 16 last season as they cashed all three tickets in the tournament. Cooley is a long-term 104-74-4 ATS as a dog, including 19-7 ATS of late.

Rating: 2 Units

For the Boilermakers, it’s the first time as a No. 1 seed since 1996. They’ll enter the Big Dance this year seeking their fi rst Final Four appearance since 1980. The Boilermakers have advanced past the Sweet 16 just once in six previous trips as a top-2 seed. They have, however, made the Sweet 16 or better in four of the past five tournaments, but have been eliminated by No. 15 and 13 seeds the past two years. The good new is they are 10-4 SU and 11-3 ATS in NCAA tourney openers under Matt Painter, which should comfortably get them underway against either of the two slop buckets advancing for the “First Four” round. 

Tournament Play of the Day

There is a large contingent of Vegas wise guys who like this Creighton team, and it’s understandable.After all, the Blue Jays were ranked No. 9 in the AP preseason poll after winning 23 games the previous season despite being beaten up with injuries. The truth of the matter is unless they win two games in this event and make it to the Sweet 16, they will fall short of last year’s effort. That’s the plight we see happening, and with it, we’re not about to lay points with a team under this sort of scrutiny. For openers, Creighton enters with a crummy 7-13 SU and 5-14- 1 ATS record in this tournament since the turn of the century, including 0-4 ATS when coming off a loss as a favorite. On the fl ip side, NC State enters with a sparking 8-1 SU and 7-1 ATS record this season in games when coming off a loss, including 7-0 ATS the last seven games. In addition, the Pack is 4-1 SUATS in this tourney when entering off a loss when they sport a greater than .666 win percentage. We’re backing the team playing the better ball as playing on any .666 or greater lined Division-1 team in Round One of the NCAA tournament coming off a loss of 24 or more points if they are facing a sub .740 lined Division-1 foe is a perfect 11-0 ATS since 1990

Rating: 2 Units

Like Kansas State above, no team has ever won a national championship after losing its fi rst game in the conference tournament. That’s bad news for the Bears, whose season was laced with ups and downs. A 10-2 start was met with a 3-game losing skid. Then a 10-1 winning run was met with a pair of losses, only to close the season out with another pair of defeats. The question is can Scott Drew’s capable band of Bears fi nd another winning streak to close out the season? A cause for concern was that Baylor was outrebounded, 43-15, in its conference tourney loss to Iowa State. If that’s not addressed they could be going into early hibernation. Yes, they’re on a 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS run in this tournament, but all of those games came as a No. 1 seed. On the other side of the coin, the Gauchos have turned into an ATM machine, cashing 19 of their final 27 games, while riding a 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS streak into this contest. While they’ve lost all four of their NCAA appearances, they managed to ring the register in those games, going 3-1 ATS.

Rating: 2 Units

Micah Shrewsberry will try to keep the momentum going against what has to be a down-in-the-dumps bunch of Aggies, crushed by Alabama in the SEC title game. A plus for the Lions is their 10-5 SU and 14-0-1 ATS record in their last fifteen games on neutral courts. Sure, the Aggies may be 12-2 ATS as a favorite (9-0 ATS the last nine) since the calendar turned on January 1, but the Lions carry an 8-2 SU and 7-3 ATS ledger in their last ten games into this contest. They are also 13-5 ATS against .666 or greater opponents this season, including six ATS covers in a row when taking points. This will be Texas A&M’s first trip to The Dance since 2018 but we don’t look for the celebration to go much further. Both teams bring plenty to the table but being major dog lovers, we can’t remain neutral here, not with the Nits on a ‘neutral assault’. 

Rating: 2 Units

Houston led the country in scoring margin (+16.0) and they play a suffocating style of defense. They’re also 6-0 ATS in games when coming off a double-digit loss. The feeling here is coach Sampson and company will likely be hell-bent on making a statement in this game today. If it weren’t for the Cougars’ worst-in-class 1-6 ATS mark this season in games versus fellow NCAA Tournament teams, we’d consider snapping the rubber band. Nonetheless, the Norse closed like a racehorse, going 7-1 SUATS down the stretch to capture the Horizon League title. They returned 4 starters from last year’s 20-win unit but were only 2-8 ATS in games outside the Horizon. They are 0-2 all-time in this event, as well as 1-24 ATS in their last 25 outright losses. That might be all you need to know today. 

Rating: 3 Units

This is the fourth time in school history that Duke isn’t a top-4 seed, and In the two previous instances, it lost in the first round (2007 as a No. 6 vs. VCU, 1996 as a No. 8 vs. Eastern Michigan). It could happen again here against an Oral Roberts’ squad that returned their top 6 scorers, and 7 of the top 8 from last year’s 19-win unit this season. The Golden Eagles reached the Sweet 16 in 2021, and their current 18-game win streak is the longest in this tournament. Can’t turn down another of the four 30-win teams in this tournament, especially when we get a look at the fact that ACC tourney champions are just 10-20-1 ATS in opening round games in the NCAA Tournament, including 0-7 ATS as a No. 3 or worse seed.

Rating: 2 Units

The Big Ten and the SEC lead the way with most teams in this tournament (8 each) and this is one of the reasons why. Yes, we understand the Illini are 8-1 ATS in games when both teams are coming off ATS losses, but they are also just 5-15 outright and 7-13 ATS against No. 8 or better seeds in this tournament, including 1-9 outright in games in which Illinois sports a sub .777 win percentage. It’s hard backing a team like this, especially a school that hasn’t reached the Sweet 16 since 2005. As for the Razorbacks, they must overcome the recent ugliness of 8-seeds in opening round games being on a 5-11 SUATS losing run since 2018, including 2-10 SUATS against 9-seeds coming off a SUATS loss. But it’s our belief that if anyone can, the Musselman can. The head Hog just missed the cut list of our March Madness Top 16 coaches as he is 8-5 SU and 5-8 ATS overall, but he’s gone a hog wild 5-1 SUATS in this tourney against foes that are not arriving off consecutive SUATS wins. Don’t forget, the Razorbacks were the No. 2 preseason pick in the SEC this season, so the talent is there. Not thrilled with the fact that both teams closed out 1-3 SU in their most recent four games, but we’ve got to pick a side, so we’ll be makin’ bacon with the better squad today.

Rating: 2 Units

Zona is now 61-10 under Lloyd as his troops lost to Houston in the Sweet 16 in this tournament last season – his only postseason loss with the Wildcats (8-1). Lloyd’s 22-2 SU and 17-7 ATS mark in games against foes coming off a win of more than 8 points also figures to serve them well here today. However, Pac-12 conference champions are only 2-6-1 ATS in the first round of the NCAA tournament when facing foes coming off a win. As for Princeton, the Ivy Leaguers sport a 10-5 ATS mark in this tourney since 2010, including 7-1 ATS when coming off a win of 7-plus points. The Tigers are also 6-2 ATS as a double-digit dog under head coach Mitch Henderson versus winning opponents who are not undefeated, in addition to going 4-2 SU and 5-1 ATS as a dog this season. Remember, all four No. 2 seeds have reached the Sweet 16 just twice in the past 25 tournaments and given the Wildcats’ wimpy 2-11-1 ATS ledger in its last 14 dances, we’ll be on the take today.

Rating: 2 Units

Considering the Cougars' only NCAA tournament win came way back in 1997, the odds seem stacked against a deep run here. But Charleston has been a tough out in this tournament, as all six games in school history have been decided by 10 or fewer points, despite the Cougars being a 12-seed or worse in four of those five appearances. There are also plenty of hurdles facing the Aztecs in this year’s event. For openers, the Mountain West have never had a team advance beyond the Sweet 16, as opposed to 17 other conferences that have had teams reach the Elite Eight since the MWC was formed in 1999-2000. And it gets uglier as, per ESPN, the MWC is 1-8 SU and 0-8-1 ATS in fi rst round games since 2010. History has not been kind to the Aztecs either, as they’ve gone one-and done in each of the last three Dances while dropping four straight games. They’d also better polish up their 3-point defense for this one – almost half of the Cougars’ shot attempts are from beyond the arc. Add the fact that Charleston fans should descend en masse to the not-so-distant venue in Orlando, and we smell an upset right out of the box.

Rating: 2 Units

A big concern for Utah State: Per ESPN – Mountain West teams seeded 10th or worse are 1-23 all time, with 20 straight losses since the only win in 2002. That’s certainly not good news for the Aggies. Especially as they fi nd themselves dressing up as a favorite against the 7th-seeded Tigers. Head coach Ryan Odom, who coached No 16 seed UMBC to its magical upset over top-seeded Virginia in the 2018 NCAA Tournament, guided the Aggies to the NIT last year and the NCAA Tourney this season in his fi rst two years with Utah State. They play a rugged brand of defense but it’s going to take a major effort to move a mountain and overcome the MWC’s putrid history in this tourney. Yes, Missouri will need to overcome a 0-6 SUATS mark in their last six games on the dance floor but they’ll do so knowing they are 10-5 SUATS in this tournament in games in which they sport the better record. It’s showtime for the Tigers.

Rating: 2 Units

Furman is also one of four “double champions” (teams who won both their regular season and postseason conference titles) who are taking points from foes that won neither. We love fading these often-times disappointed favorites, especially with double-confident champions who are ecstatic to be dancing. Hey, the Paladins won their 15 conference games by an average margin of 16 points, and four players take the fl oor here averaging double-digits. Virginia can claim the second-best defense in the tourney, but they’ll need to apply the screws if they don’t wish to get screwed in this lid-lifter

Rating: 2 Units

The 8-seeds are on a 5-11 SUATS slide since 2018, including 2-10 SUATS against 9-seeds coming off a SUATS loss. That’s not good news for the Terps, who’ve won only a single game this month over bottom feeding Minnesota in the Big Ten Tournament – and the Gophers are a big cut below what Maryland will see in West Virginia. Mountaineers head coach Bob Huggins was at his best this campaign, getting an invite to the dance after being picked to finish ninth in the Big 12 following last year’s 16-17 losing effort. And while Huggy failed to make our Sweet 16 cut on this year’s top NCAA tourney coaches list, the fact of the matter is his troops are 11-4 SU and 9-5-1 ATS in first round games when coming off a loss, including 9-1 SU and 7-2-1 ATS versus sub .740 opposition. Finally, ESPN shared this nugget: At large teams that finished four games under .500 in conference play are 5-0 in the first round. Last year, 11th-seeded Iowa State became the first such team to reach the Sweet 16. This year West Virginia (7-11 in the Big 12) is the only at-large team in this year's fi eld to fi nish four games under .500 in conference play

Rating: 2 Units

First Four matchups involving a pair of Division-1 teams fi nds that squads coming off an outright loss as a favorite are 5-13 SU and 7-11 ATS, including 1-9 SU and 2-8 ATS against foes who were underdogs of 3 or more points in their last contest. That sets the table for the Sun Devils who were 17-6 SU against sub .690 opponents this season, as well as 9-2 SU and 7-4 ATS in games outside the Pac-12. And it certainly doesn’t hurt knowing the pitchforks bring an 8-1-1 ATS mark in this contest against Mountain West opposition. Meanwhile, the Wolf Pack closed the season on a 0-3 SUATS losing skein which is not a good omen for Nevada considering teams entering the Big Dance on a 0-3 SUATS losing skein are just 4-10 SU and 3-11 ATS since 2004, including 0-5 SUATS as an underdog. We seal the deal noting that MWC teams are riding a 0-12 SU and 1-11 ATS skein against Pac-12 foes in this show since 2001. 

Rating: 2 Units

This is one of those games where the road team probably doesn't want to be there and the home team just wants to beat an ACC squad. Cincinnati's big advantage is on the boards where Virginia Tech ranks 209th in the nation in rebounding margin a -0.1. Virginia Tech is also bad on the road, shooting just 31.8% from long range, while Cincy is holding teams to 31.2% from long range at home. The Bearcats also put up 82.7 points per game on 47% shooting at home.

Rating: 2 Units

The strange thing here is that FDU is playing tonight despite the fact the Knights actually lost to league champion Merrimack in the Northeast Conference championship game. That's because Merrimack is a Division-1 newbie who made the jump from Division II to Division I in 2019, but is serving the last year of a four-year prohibition from NCAA tournament play following its transition. Editor's note: It's such an archaic rule that needs to be abolished. Nevertheless, the Knights went 1-3 SUATS against 'lined' opponents this season (beat St. Joseph's), and are 1-4 SU and 3-2 ATS in this tourney, with their last appearance resulting in an 87-49 loss to top-seeded Gonzaga in 2019. On the other side of the court, 14-20 Texas Southern enters as the only team in this year's Dance with a losing record, yet own the Southwestern Athletic Conference tourney to make its second consecutive trip to this tournament (beat A&M CC in a "First Four" game last year before bowing out, 83-56, to Kansas thereafter. The Tigers did take down Arizona State, 67-66, as a 12-point home dog this season. While they have the experience, FDU is playing with house-money. And we're not betting against the house.

Rating: 2 Units

This is the clash between a couple of defensive-minded teams. Both schools struggle to shoot the ball from deep and are far away from an elite level when it comes to offensive efficiency. Seton Hall makes just 5.8 triples per game (326th in the country) on a 32.8 percentage clip (259th), while Colorado hits 6.5 threes (282nd) on a 31.9 percentage clip (304th). Hereof, I’m expecting to see a tight battle, so give me the underdogs to cover a 4.5-point spread. Both Pirates and Buffaloes have been pretty inconsistent lately, and it’s hard to trust either side. Seton Hall is 2-6 SU and 3-5 ATS in its last eight games overall, though the Pirates have covered the spread in five straight outings on the road. On the other side, Colorado is 3-5 SU and 5-3 ATS in its past eight contests overall and 3-4 ATS in its previous seven showings at home.

Rating: 2 Units

Consider that the Panthers are 21-7 ATS in their last 28 games overall, 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 games vs a team with a winning record.  While the Bulldogs are 6-14-1 ATS in their last 21 games following an ATS loss and 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games. 

Rating: 2 Units

I have been fading this overrated Wisconsin team throughout the season, and I see no reason to stop here in a matchup against a team that will be more motivated. The Badgers had NCAA Tournament aspirations this season, and they were expected to be a threat to make the second weekend. Instead, they flopped in conference play and only covered the spread five times in their last 20 games. Bradley enters this matchup riding a six-game road winning streak and having won 12 of its last 13 games. The Braves were regular-season champs and will be motivated to prove that was not a fluke against a major-conference team.

Rating: 2 Units

The Rockets are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games following an ATS loss and 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall. Toledo is the hungrier team, with a chip on its shoulder after losing in the MAC Tournament championship. The Rockets were victorious in seventeen straight prior to that game and will be out to prove they can play with a traditional Midwestern power. Toledo's offense is elite and will prove it in Ann Arbor, putting the Wolverines in a tough spot. Will the Wolverines defend their pride and home court in an otherwise unimportant game for a program rich in history? We shall see.

Rating: 2 Units

Consider that the RedHawks are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall, 16-5 ATS in their last 21 neutral site games, and 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games vs a team with a winning % above .600.  Additionally, the Islanders are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 Tuesday Games.

Rating: 2 Units

Purdue has been dominating the Big Ten all season and they won't stop now. Penn State has shot the ball well in the tournament, but they have not faced a defense like Purdue's. Edey takes away any easy opportunity at the hoop, and Braden Smith is an elite defender who will give Pickett problems on the perimeter. Penn State is also a guard heavy team, they often play four or five guards, which is a terrible matchup when going against Edey. Ohio State played a similar guard heavy lineup, and Edey gave them 32 points and 14 rebounds in an easy win. Edey will do the same here, Penn State does not have an interior defender capable of slowing down Edey inside. The big man dominated all season, and will end the Big Ten season with one more big performance.

Rating: 2 Units

The Cougars have won 13 straight games and they haven’t lost a game on the road this season. They have played well offensively, scoring more than 73 points per game away from home. They’ve taken advantage of their opportunities at the charity stripe, making over 78 percent of their free throws in their last three games. They rebound the ball well and they’re aggressive on the offensive glass, which will give them more scoring chances. They also do a good job protecting the ball and won’t give the Tigers a lot of easy-scoring opportunities. The Tigers aren’t very good defensively, giving up more than 74 points per game on the road, and will have a hard time slowing down the Cougars in this game. The Tigers have won four of their last five games. They are playing well offensively, scoring more than 75 points per game in their last three games. They don’t rebound the ball as well as the Cougars and won’t get a lot of extra-scoring chances against them. They’ve also been careless with the ball on the road, which will lead to easy-scoring opportunities for the Cougars, who average more than eight steals per game. The Cougars have played well defensively and held their last three opponents under 60 points per game, so expect them to keep Memphis’ offense in check. Go with Houston to cover the spread.

Rating: 2 Units

VCU has now won seven straight games and are playing at a much higher level than the team that played Dayton over a month ago. One player in particular, Adrian Baldwin Jr, has certainly stepped up his game in that time. Baldwin averaged just 10 points in the two games with Dayton this season but has been much more efficient since then. Additionally, the Rams are 6-1 ATS in this latest run as well. Both teams are excellent on the defensive end, particularly Dayton, but the Rams hold a significant edge in turnover margin. Dayton ranked just 12th in the Atlantic Ten in turnover margin this season while VCU was first in the conference in turnover margin. Additionally, VCU forced Dayton into 18 turnovers in each of the first two matchups. I expect a better offensive effort from VCU in the rubber match and a continued edge in turnovers.

Rating: 2 Units

Quite a bit of how this plays out could well be centered on Bona’s status. If he can’t go, the Bruins will have to rely on Mac Etienne and Kenneth Nwuba. That is a major drop not only in production, but in athleticism, as neither one of those guys brings what Bona does to the floor. Potentially having your top big man limited or missing is bad regardless but when you’re dealing with a team with the twin towers duo of Tubelis and Ballo, it puts a lot of pressure on Jaquez Jr. and Campbell to carry a bigger share of the load. Arizona wants to make up for their loss last week at Pauley Pavilion in the regular season finale. The Wildcats have their team ready to go and they are facing a Bruins team that might be worried about avoiding any further injuries. Look for Arizona to claw out a tight win here with both teams preparing for where they’ll end up for the opening round of the NCAA Tournament.

Rating: 2 Units

When looking at adjusted offensive ratings, there is a huge difference as Toledo is ninth in college basketball with a 119.5 offensive rating while Kent State is currently 135th in the sport with a 107.4 offensive rating. A huge reason why is the difference in the capabilities to knock down threes as the Rockets are second in all of the United States shooting 40.7 percent from beyond the arc as a program while the Golden Flashes are all the way down at 236th in the nation with a 32.9 percentage as a program from distance. All in all, go with the Toledo Rockets to cover the spread. 

Rating: 2 Units

The teams split two meetings this season with each team winning at home. Miami walloped Duke at home in their previous contest, prevailing by 22 points. Duke has won seven straight games as they have turned things around after a slow start on the offensive end of the floor. The Blue Devils are going to be tested defensively by an explosive Miami offensive unit. Miami does have plenty of experience to build around and they are facing a Duke team that is rather lacking in that department. The Blue Devils have played well of late but Miami has the ability to outgun teams almost at will. Give the Hurricanes the slight advantage as they punch their ticket to the title game.

Rating: 2 Units

Arizona State was anything but good on the offensive end of the floor against Oregon State. When you struggle to score against a team like the Beavers, who were anything but a good team this season, it doesn’t bode well for your future chances. USC limited the Sun Devils to 65 and 69 points in the two meetings this season as they shot a combined 11 of 50 (22%) from beyond the arc in those contests. The Trojans just beat Arizona State five days ago and it’s hard to see how the Sun Devils can turn things around considering how poorly they played against the Beavers. Let’s be honest: they were fortunate to win that game as Oregon State missed several layups that easily could have changed the outcome. USC is out to make a run in this tournament and Arizona State is merely a stepping stone. Take the Trojans to beat the Sun Devils for the third time this season to advance to the semifinals.

Rating: 2 Units

Vanderbilt is a strange team to handicap in that the team doesn’t thrive in any one particular area. However, the Commodores not only finished the season with three-straight wins but they went 7-1 ATS in that time period, with the only loss coming against these LSU Tigers. Vanderbilt certainly played poorly, particularly on the defensive end, in the loss to LSU. I am confident that they will be ready to bounce back in this game, especially with so much on the line in terms of post-season play. Two wins in the SEC Tournament will certainly put Vanderbilt in the sightline of the committee. Meanwhile, LSU likely played its best game on Wednesday night. I can’t discount the fact that the Tigers won just two games all season in the SEC in handicapping this game. Winning two all year and then winning two straight here seems far-fetched. Lean towards a Vanderbilt team that won eight of its last nine games in a top-tier SEC Conference.

Rating: 2 Units

Both teams come into this matchup after poor finishes to the season. Auburn won the regular season battle comfortably, dominating the glass and winning the battle of points off of turnovers. Auburn should once again dominate the glass and get frequent second-chance opportunities against the Razorbacks. Auburn is 20-5 on the season as a favorite while Arkansas has yet to win a game this season as an underdog. The Tigers certainly want to improve their NCAA Tournament position and will do so in this game thanks to their defense and rebounding.

Rating: 2 Units

The Mountaineers have enjoyed some recent success but won't dethrone the conference champs in the tourney. West Virginia has an explosive offense with perimeter shooters and has proven to be a good rebounding team. It won't matter, though, against a rested Kansas squad with March Madness experience. The Jayhawks will hold their own in the rebounding department and make plays on the defensive side, causing turnovers — they average 8.7 steals per game, 16th-most in the NCAA — leading to scoring runs. In the most recent matchup with KU, WVU had 21 turnovers. Simply put, the Jayhawks value the basketball (26th in assist-per-turnover ratio) more than the Mountaineers (190th).

Rating: 2 Units

After staging a spirited comeback attempt against the New Jersey Devils on Sunday, the Arizona Coyotes hope to carry that vibe into today's home game against the St. Louis Blues. The Coyotes rallied from a 4-2 deficit to tie the game and force overtime with the Devils at Mullett Arena. The Blues are 1-5-2 in their last eight. These teams split their first two games this season. The Coyotes won 5-0 at home on Jan. 26 on Karel Vejmelka's 33-save shutout. Consider that the Blues are 8-21 in their last 29 after scoring 2 goals or less in their previous game.

Rating: 2 Units

Michigan has the better big man, and the better supporting cast in this matchup. This game weighs heavily on the tournament hopes for both teams. In a matchup of two of the best bigs in the country, Hunter Dickinson has the edge over Clifford Omoruyi in the post. Dickinson has 2 inches and 20 pounds on Omoruyi, and is the better scorer. Dickinson averages 18.2 PPG, while Omoruyi averages 13.5. They play different styles, which will benefit the Wolverines. Dickinson can step out and hit outside shots, which will force Omoruyi out from under the basket and open up lanes for the other Michigan players. Omoruyi scores the majority of his points around the basket, but that won't be easy against the bigger Dickinson. Michigan also has Jett Howard and Kobe Bufkin scoring on the perimeter, and Rutgers' Caleb McConnell cant guard both of them at the same time. Michigan is the better team, and will advance in this game.

Rating: 2 Units

Notre Dame has struggled all season long and they have dropped five straight meetings with Virginia Tech entering this contest. None of that instills confidence in their chances here. For that matter, their short rotation is problematic against a Hokies team that has pretty decent depth to work with and who are a good scoring unit. Should Starling miss this game as he has the last three, Notre Dame’s already thin group takes another hit and that makes for too deep a hole for them to dig out of here. The Fighting Irish aren’t good enough defensively to overcome missing one of their better offensive players. Virginia Tech brings the curtain down on the Brey era by prevailing here to advance to the second round.

Consider that the Dons are 10-23 ATS in their last 33 games following an ATS win, 4-12-1 ATS in their last 17 games after scoring more than 90 points in their previous game.  While the Bulldogs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games.

Rating: 2 Units

The Gaels will win straight-up and cover as spread favorites, forcing BYU into enough turnovers to separate on the scoreboard. Saint Mary's slow-tempo approach (359th in pace of play) will put pressure on the Cougars to maximize their offensive opportunities, which will be problematic for a team that averages over 14 turnovers per game, one of the highest turnover ratios in the NCAA. The Cougars will not be able to rely on offensive rebounds, either, as Saint Mary's boasts a +7.1 rebounding margin. I bet the Gaels will win with an efficient shooting performance (52.8 eFG%, 37.2 3PT%) and stout defense (5th in defensive efficiency).

Rating: 2 Units

Consider that the Norse are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games, 16-6 ATS in their last 22 games versus a team with a winning record, 13-6 ATS in their last 19 neutral site games.  While the Penguins are 2-8 in their last 10 neutral site games. 

Rating: 3 Units

South Florida will cover the spread on Sunday, playing a more complete game than it did in the first meeting with Wichita State. The Bulls are coming off a rousing Senior Night victory and the Shockers are hoping to rebound from deflating second-half letdown at the hands of number-one Houston. WSU shot over 60 percent in that game and still lost, turning the ball over 18 times. It won't have similar efficiency from the field against the Bulls and could struggle in the rebounding department if Tchewa is available to suit up.

Rating: 2 Units

Consider that the Mustangs are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600, 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record, and  1-5-2 ATS in their last 8 road games. While the Bearcats are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 games following a straight up loss, 9-1 ATS in their last 10 home games vs. a team with a losing road record, 9-1 ATS in their last 10 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400, and 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a losing straight up record.

NCAAB Game of the Week

Rating: 4 Units

Cats are playing their best ball of the season at the right time. Even so, 16-14 Villanova will likely need to win out thru the Big East tourney in order to capture an invite into the NCAA Tournament for the 17th time in the last 18 Dances. Meanwhile, UConn took the opposite approach to the season, opening the campaign on a 14-0 winning run before going just 9-7 heading into March. Still, with 23 wins at press time, the Huskies all but have their NCAA tourney ticket punched. A trip to the archives tells us Villanova is 6-2 SU and 6-1-1 ATS in this series, as well as 9-1 SU and 6-3 ATS in Last Home Games. Then there’s the program’s intimidating history: winning the Big East regular season championship 7 of the last 9 years, and the Big East conference tournament 5 of the last 8 years. Yes, they miss Jay Wright, but these are still the players he recruited and they won’t back down now. With a 10-3 SU effort at home this season and revenge for a 74-66 loss to UConn in late December, we seal the deal for Villanova with the fact that UConn is 6-11 SU and 5-12 ATS against foes playing their final home game of the season, including 1-6 SU and 0-7 ATS when the Huskies sport a .586 or greater win percentage.

Rating: 2 Units

Texas Tech has been streaky this season as they started the year 10-2, dropped eight in a row, then won six of eight before losing their last two games. The Red Raiders aren’t quite as stingy defensively as they’ve been in recent seasons but they are at home here. Texas Tech is 11-5 at home while Oklahoma State has posted just a 4-7 mark as the visiting team on the year. The Cowboys have slumped of late with five straight losses and they have only two road wins in conference play. Oklahoma State doesn’t have great offensive firepower and that proves to be their undoing as the Red Raiders earn a home win to close the regular season on a positive note.

Rating: 3 Units

Tennessee has done most of its damage this campaign at Knoxville, going 14-2 SU and 11-5 ATS as opposed to 4-5 SU and 3-6 ATS as visitors. Yes, the Rocky Top 5 rank No. 2 in overall defensive Field Goal Percentage, but Auburn counters as the No. 12 team in the land in the same category. Let’s also not forget that the Tigers took the Vols to the wire a month ago at Thompson Boling Arena before dropping a 46-43 thriller. As for today’s revenger, War Eagle is 7-2 ATS in this series, including 3-0 SUATS at home. In addition, Coach Pearl stands 6-4 SU and 7-3 ATS in Last Home Games versus .700 or fewer foes, including 5-1 ATS between the 10’s (favored 10 or less or dog of 10 or less points). Look, Auburn was ranked No. 15 in the AP preseason poll and definitely underachieved this season, but the talent is still there. If you’re still not sold, we suggest you check out that Auburn is 6-0 ATS in Last Home Games when .400 or greater if facing a .640 or greater opponent.

Rating: 3 Units

Arkansas is coming off back-to-back losses to ranked opponents, while Kentucky took a tough 68-66 defeat against Vanderbilt on Wednesday. After their regular-season finale, the Southeastern Conference tournament awaits, and both teams are projected to make the NCAA Tournament. Calipari kept praising his players for the fight they showed against the Commodores. The Wildcats (20-10, 11-6 SEC) trailed by 11 in the second half and rallied to take a two-point lead with 1:10 left on a jumper by Oscar Tshiebwe'. Vanderbilt's Jordan Wright scored the next two baskets, and the Wildcats' Antonio Reeves missed a 3-point attempt at the buzzer.  Consider that the Wildcats are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games.

NCAAB Game of the Month

Rating: 5 Units

Huggins led the Wildcats in 2006 and 2007, and he’s currently 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS with same-season revenge of 4 or more points at WVU against KSU (Wildcats beat West Virginia on New Year’s Eve, 82-76). It’s been an inconsistent season for WVU, though expectations were low after only 1 starter returned from the previous campaign’s 16-17 squad. But even though the Hillbillies have won just twice in their last six games, those two wins came in their last three outings. Owners of a 17-13 record at press time, the Huggies are sitting firmly on the NCAA bubble and needs this like kielbasa needs sauerkraut. Not so for the Wildcats, who are sitting pretty after knocking off Oklahoma to improve to 23-7 with 11 wins in Big 12 play. This is not a good role for the visitors, though, as they’re 0-3 SUATS against foes in Last Home Games playing with same-season revenge of 6 or fewer points. The Manhattan Cats are also just 1-5 SU and 0-6 ATS away in Big 12 Last Road Games in regular season finales. Finally, Huggy’s team is 12-4 SU in WVU Coliseum this season, which fits right in with the fact that WVU head coach Bob Huggins is 15-0 SU and 11-4 ATS in Last Home Games when playing with three or more 

days of rest, including 7-0 SUATS with West Virginia

Rating: 3 Units

The Ohio State Buckeyes recently had a nine-game losing streak which they finally ended last week. It’s been a disastrous season for a squad that has plenty of skill. They have not been a reliable team, covering in only two of their last ten bouts. The Michigan State Spartans have only lost two Big Ten home games all season. The Buckeyes' defense has been the culprit in many losses. They are squandering 102.8 points per 100 possessions, ranking them 113th while the Spartans are only allowing 96.3 points per 100. MSU has averaged a remarkable 88 points in their last three games. The Spartans completely dominated the Buckeyes last month on the road, winning by 20 points. 

Rating: 2 Units

Consider that the Over is 3-0-1 in Lobos last 4 games following a straight up win., 4-0 in Lobos last 4 Friday games, and 4-0-1 in Lobos last 5 road games. While the Over is 5-0 in Rams last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record, 4-0 in Rams last 4 vs. a team with a winning straight up record, 9-1 in Rams last 10 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600, and 10-2-1 in Rams last 13 games following a ATS loss.

Rating: 2 Units

This is a major contrast in styles as Dayton plays at one of the slowest paces in college basketball, ranking No. 345 in tempo. They are also one of the best defensive teams in the land, allowing just 60.7 points per game, which is 12th best in the country. St. Louis on the  other hand averages close to 76 points per game and plays at the 71st fastest pace in the country, fueled by Collins, who leads the nation with 10.2 assists per game. When these two met a few weeks ago, Dayton controlled the tempo in an easy win. This time around, I like St. Louis to control the pace at home. Take St. Louis here to cover the spread.

Rating: 2 Units

Both teams are playing pretty well and neither is an offensive juggernaut. Washington has covered four straight in this series. Washington State barely won the first game at home as Brooks shot just 4-of-16 from the field. The Huskies shoot it much better at home, where they make 44.3% of their shots and allow just 40.5% from the field. On the other hand, Washington State is shooting under 40% (38.6%) from the field on the road. Take the points.

Rating: 2 Units

Two Pac-12 bottom feeders meet up Thursday night when Stanford battles Oregon State at Corvallis, Ore. The Cardinal (12-17, 6-12 Pac-12) are in 10th place in the 12-team conference while the Beavers (10-19, 4-14) are 11th. Stanford is hoping to build momentum after Sunday's solid 81-69 home victory over Washington. The victory was just the second in the past seven games for the Cardinal.

Rating: 2 Units

Both teams come into this game with something to play for. The Boilermakers are still fighting for a top seed in the NCAA Tournament and would obviously like to enter the Big Ten Tournament with some momentum rather than a two-game losing streak. Wisconsin is clinging to tournament hopes and a loss here would be near fatal for those chances. In the last ten meetings between the two teams, Purdue has gone 6-4. Wisconsin has an overall record of 9-5 at home this season but the Badgers are just 4-10 ATS in that time. Purdue should dominate the paint in this matchup with the league's #1 rebounding team pitted against the 14th-ranked rebounding of Wisconsin. Wisconsin is a dismal 4-14 ATS in its last 18 games. Look for Purdue to exert its will over Wisconsin and get back on track.

Rating: 2 Units'

Juan Howard’s Wolverine hoopsters are in need of every win they can muster if they wish to impress the selection committee. Fortunately for Howard, his team has responded with a 5-2 SUATS February compared to a middling 3-3 SUATS effort from the Illini. The Wolverines are 6-1-1 ATS with revenge in this series (Illini took them down twice last season) when Illinois enters with a sub. 700 win percentage, and the WOM reminds us the Wolves are 8-4 ATS as a dog during the regular season following a LHG, including 5-2 SU and 6-1 ATS when facing sub .750 foes. As if that’s not enough to contend with, Illinois is staring down a double revenge affair of its own on tap with highly-ranked Purdue. Remember, Michigan was a preseason Top 20 pick in the polls, so the talent is still there.

Rating: 2 Units

The Bears had dropped two straight games to Kansas and Kansas State prior to a same-season revenger against Texas at Waco over the weekend, and they’re just 4-20 SU and 8-16 ATS after the Longhorns, including 3-14 ATS when coming off a loss (check Saturday result). That doesn’t bode well considering the Pokes are 6-0-1 ATS in this series with same-season revenge from a loss of 7 or more points when Baylor takes the floor with a greater than .666 win percentage. Oklahoma State also performs well in Last Home Games, going 21-7 SU and 18-10 ATS the last this role, including 3-0 SUATS with same-season revenge of 15-plus points. Home teams in the Big 12 have fl exed their muscles this campaign, going 123-28 SU overall and 50-25 SU in conference clashes. Those stats look especially good when the visiting Bears bring a woeful 5-22 ATS record when coming off a home game and facing foes in LHGs.

Rating: 2 Units

UCLA has not only won seven in a row but is 4-2-1 ATS in that span. Colorado is 3-6-1 ATS in their last 10 games. The Bruins beat a double-digit spread against the Buffaloes last time despite trailing for over half the game. Their defense absolutely shut down an inefficient Colorado offense and should be able to do it again. I wouldn't worry about UCLA playing on the road either, as they're 8-2 in away games this season and 6-3-1 ATS. I'm riding a team that's hot and has an elite defense against a team that's cold and has a lackluster offense. Take UCLA to cover.

Rating: 2 Units

Currently in a three-way tie for 3rd place in the MVC, the 5-returning starter Sycamores have been on a scorching 7-1 SU and 8-0 ATS skein with the only loss coming by a single point at Belmont, 89-88. We expect them to return to their winning ways here, especially since they were nipped by Missouri State, 64-62, in Springfi eld in mid-January. In the 11 games since beating the Sycamores, the Bears are a money-burning 2-8-1 ATS. Yes, they arrive off a off same season revenge victory over Murray State, but they’re just 1-3 ATS after running with the Racers. The final coffin nail for Missouri State is its 0-5 ATS failure in the last five games when coming off a win. Additionally, Indiana State is 6-1 SU and 5-1-1 ATS in Last Home Games of the season, including 4-0-1 ATS when playing with revenge.

Rating: 3 Units

Maryland is unbeaten in its nine conference home games this season, making the Terrapins a team that I am thrilled to back on Sunday afternoon, especially given the circumstances. Northwestern is coming off its most disappointing loss of the season, blowing a 16-point lead in the second half of its game against Illinois. The Wildcats have only won three of the last 14 head-to-head meetings between these teams, and they have a major emotional hurdle to overcome in this contest. Maryland has covered in eight of its last 11 games and should fare well against a Northwestern offense that has a tendency to go cold.

Rating: 2 Units

Indiana has dropped its last 2 games on the road against Northwestern (64-62, Feb. 15) and Michigan State (80-65, Tuesday), and the Hoosiers are 0-3 against the spread (ATS) across the past 3 games overall. It seems like forever since the Hoosiers picked up a 79-74 win over the rival Boilermakers, but it was just on Feb. 4. Purdue snapped a 2-game mini skid with an emphatic 82-55 win over disappointing Ohio State Sunday. While the Boilermakers have dropped 3 in a row on the road, they love a little home cooking, going 15-1 at home.

Rating: 2 Units

Boise State is currently breathing down the neck of MWC leader San Diego State, just one game back at press time. Then there’s the ugly fact that it’s been almost a month since BSU cashed a ticket, going 6-1 SU but only 1-6 ATS. Conference road favorites on a 5-game ATS losing skid like Boise are just 7-13 ATS against winning opposition, including 3-10 SUATS when favored by 4 or fewer points. And not only are the Spartans 3-0 ATS the last three games in this series, and 3-0 SUATS at home when coming off a previous home loss, they’ve logged a competitive 10-3 SU and 8-4 ATS home record at The Event Center this season. With the Broncos taking the court off a same-season revenge win against New Mexico and sporting just a 3-7 ATS effort against avenging foes in post-Lobo competitions, west coast Sparty gets the call.

Rating; 2 Units

Oklahoma State is in danger of sliding off the dreaded NCAA Tournament bubble completely. But while they return home off three straight double digit losses, the Pokes do own a 7-2 SUATS ledger at Gallagher-Iba Arena when playing off three losses exact. They’re also 4-0 SUATS at home off a loss this season, and 3-0 ATS home in this series when seeking revenge from a same-season defeat of 6-plus points. Kansas State, easily the surprise team in what has been a Big 12 meat-grinder of a campaign, may have 21 wins in the bank but the Wildcats aren’t exactly a fi ne-tuned machine of late, losing 4 of their last seven games. Even worse for first-year KSU head coach Jerome Tang, his squad’s home-road dichotomy sticks out like a sore thumb: 13-1 SU and 10-4 ATS at Manhattan as opposed to 3-6 SU and 4-5 ATS away. Toss in a triple revenger on deck with Oklahoma for the Purple Cats, and Kansas State looks to be in over its head here in Stillwater.

Rating: 2 Units

While the South Carolina game was nearly a disaster, being back home should bring Bama back to their usual dominance. At home, they are significantly better on both ends of the floor than their season averages, and their numbers this season are already elite. Along with that, they're 9-4-0 ATS at home while Arkansas is 2-6-0 ATS on the road. These teams play the same brand of basketball, Alabama just does everything better. The first game proved that, and now that this one is in Tuscaloosa, Alabama should roll into another resounding victory. Take the Crimson Tide to cover the spread against the Razorbacks again.

Rating: 2 Units

The Bears struggled in their losses to Kansas and Kansas State as they wilted in the second half of both games in hostile environments. On the plus side for the Bears, this game is at home, where they have had success, posting a 13-2 record. Their two losses came by a combined three points with one of those coming in overtime. Texas won the first meeting this season but that was before the return of Tchamwa Tchatchoua. The Longhorns are just 4-4 on the road this season with all four defeats coming by at least seven points. Baylor is out to avenge the loss in Austin and to get back on track heading into the final week of the regular season. George and Cryer feed off the crowd to help the Bears get back in the win column.

CBB Play of the Day

Rating: 3 Units

The Dawgs are 3-0 ATS home as a dog or a favorite of fewer than 3 points in this series, 3-0 SUATS as a conference home dog when coming off a loss of 30-plus points, and 5-1 ATS as conference home dogs over the past 12 months. Meanwhile, Missouri stands just 2-4 SUATS in games after battling MSU and the Tigers have struggled to cash tickets of late, going just 1-5 ATS in their six most recent outings. In this battle of cats and dogs, we’ll back the Dawgs with added support coming knowing that playing on any college hoops home dog with a winning record coming off consecutive losses of 28 or more points is 7-1 ATS since 1990.

Rating: 3 Units

I am not overly concerned about Iowa’s recent losses on the road, as the Hawkeyes have been much better at Carver-Hawkeye Arena. They rely almost entirely on their offense to win games, making them a team to back at home and fade on the road. In fact, they have won seven straight home games coming into this contest, and they should be in somewhat of a desperation mode to get back on track with NCAA Tournament seeding. Michigan State has only covered the spread once in the last five meetings between these teams and its dependence on 3-point shots makes is going to cost the Spartans on Saturday.