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NFC Play of the Day

Rating: 4 Units

Tom Brady is clearly programmed to break every NFL passing record in the book. In his best outing of the year – 432 yards and three TDs passing, one rushing TD – he completed 34 passes Sunday, adding yet another record to his seemingly endless collection. In the process he won his 19th division title, as the Bucs are now back-to-back division champs for the fi rst time in team history. Atlanta enters as a team playing out the string, just 2-6 SUATS and ITS in its last eight games while throwing green QB Desmond Ridder to the wolves. With the Dirty Birds just 2-13 ATS at home coming off a home game and Brady 3-0 ATS in his career as a dog in season finales, and finally NFL .500 dogs are 5-0 ATS in final games of the season when coming off a win

AFC Game of the Week

Rating: 4 Units

USA TODAY called out the fact that the Jets handed the Jaguars a Christmas gift two years ago when they foolishly rallied to defeat the Los Angeles Rams, 23-20, just before Christmas and granting them access to QB Trevor Lawrence as the No. 1 overall draft pick. Talk about a gift that keeps on giving to Jacksonville, it’s one that may well haunt the Jets for the next 10-15 years. What may also trouble the Big Planes today is their recent 7-16 SU and 5-18 ATS record in games when coming off a SU favorite loss, including 1-10 SUATS versus greater than .400 foes. That fits perfectly into the Seahawks’ 10-0 ATS record in home games when coming off consecutive underdog losses. Then there is head coach Pete Carroll, who is 8-1 SU and 6-3 ATS at home in January, including 4-0 SUATS with a losing record and 4-0 SUATS versus sub .600 foes – and our favorite holiday ‘Caroller’ has also never lost four consecutive home games. Finally, consider that playing on any NFL non-division home dog or ‘pick’ if they are 0-3 SU and ATS in their last three games is 112-82-7 ATS since 1980. Better yet, put these non-division hosts up against a sub. 500 foe in this role and the black ink turns a deep shade of green, going 35-19-3 ATS, including 16-1-2 ATS when they sport a win percentage over .100 and were a dog of 6-plus points in their last game.

Inter-Conference Game of the Month

Rating: 5 Units

For the first time in over two-and-half months the Pack finally have a winning streak. The Cheese Heads are the No. 10 seed in the NFC, currently 1.5 games behind the Commanders for the NFC’s final wild-card spot. Green Bay enters 6-1 ATS as a dog in games when favored last game. Miami returns home off a winless three game road trek knowing they are 0-4 ATS coming off three straight road games, as well as 0-4 ATS when coming off three losses. And that’s not to mention the fact they are 1-5 ATS as a host in this series. With Rodgers suddenly smelling playoff blood, know that he is 9-4-1 ATS as a dog from game 15 out, including 6-0-1 ATS when the Packers own a win percentage of .666 or less.

AFC Game of the Week

Rating: 4 Units

Currently the Pats are the No. 8 seed in the AFC playoff picture but they must close out the season against the likes of these 10-4 Bengals, 8-6 Miami, and 11-3 Buffalo. Thus, it starts today against a Cincinnati squad who enters just 7-29 SU and 12-22-2 ATS away against the AFC East, including 1-6 SU and 0-6-1 ATS when coming off a double-digit win. Yes, the Hoodies need to roll up their sleeves and get to work against a Joe Burrow-led Bengals’ bunch on an AFC best 6-game win skein. However, consider that playing against any NFL team that is 6-0 SUATS in its last six games if they are facing a sub .700 non-division opponent is 10-1 ATS since 1980.

NFL Upset of the Month

Rating: 5 Units

Bengals are 5-0 SUATS the last fi ve games, and that may sound good to Joe Public, but not to the savvy handicapper as non-rested NFL teams on a 5-0 SUATS win streak have puked as non-division favorites of 5 or fewer points, going just 10-20-1 ATS in this role. On the other side of this hardto-like take are the Bucs, who were totally throttled in last week’s 28-point loss at San Francisco. It doesn’t get much worse than that. In fact, it was the third-worst loss in Brady’s NFL career. And adding more misery, it occurred at the hands of 7th round rookie QB Brock Purdy. By now we all know of Brady’s jaw-dropping 11-1 ATS career mark as a home dog. But don't forget that Tom Brady is 16-3 SU and 18-1 ATS as a pick or dog off a loss in his NFL career, including 10-0 SUATS off a loss of more than 7 points.

NFL Game of the Week

Rating: 4 Units

Jaguars’ QB Trevor Lawrence, has over the course of his last three games sport a 111.7 QB Rating with 0 INTs. Meanwhile, the not-so-big news in the Dallas receiver room is that WR TY Hilton will be joining the Cowboys, not Odell Beckham, Jr. The feeling here is OBJ may still be in play for America’s Team, but not until he’s able to take the field. Yes, the Boys are confident, riding an 8-game ITS (In The Stats) win skein entering today’s game. But we can’t ignore that playing against any sub .800 NFL non-division road favorite coming off three straight home games from Game 11 out is 12-1-1 since 1980.

Mismatch of the Week

Rating: 5 Units

So why is it, that the Seahawks a measly 3.5-point favorite at home against the 4-8 Panthers? Is Vegas telling us something? They may be trying, but we’re not buying. Not with Carolina 0-3 SUATS in NFC West division duke outs this season, and 0-3 SUATS the last three games in this series. And not with the Panthers a pussycat-like 0-4 ATS in games when coming off a Bye week. Turn it around and you’ll find a Seahawks squad 7-3 ATS against foes coming off a Bye week. Better yet, the Seahawks are 25-3 SU and 21-6-1 ATS in games when coming off consecutive ATS losses under head coach Pete Carroll, including 15-0 SU and 14-1 ATS at home.

NFC Game of the Week

Rating: 4 Units

Brady  is simply the best as an underdog, going 41-17-1 ATS in his illustrious career, including 19-4-1 ATS when his team is seeking revenge and 17-5 ATS when his team is coming off an ATS loss. He also stands 21-6 SU in his career in games in which his team is .500 on the season. Perhaps even more impressive is Brady’s 45-14 SU and 43-12-4 ATS mark in games against foes with a better record, including 24-6 ATS when taking points. With Monday night’s stirring comeback win over the Saints, the Bucs currently hold down the No. 4 seed in the NFC playoff picture while the Niners lay claim to the No. 2 seed. Frisco is just 1-7 ATS as non-division home chalk of fewer than four points and Tampa Bay is 7-1-2 ATS as a dog after being a favorite the previous game. Finally consider that playing against any .666 or greater single-digit NFL regular season home team coming off consecutive home wins if they are facing an opponent coming off a loss is 14-2-1 since 1983.

Prime Time Game of the Week

Rating: 4 Units

The ‘return to the norm’ is simply too strong to overcome as ATS losses begin to pile up with each passing week. With it the Eagles enter this week on a 3-game ATS losing skid while having been out yarded in half of their last six games. Granted, the Packers are facing demons of their own, but Aaron Rodgers thrives in these situations, and we expect nothing less today. With it the Pack checks in 7-1 ATS in game versus .750 or greater foes the past two seasons, as well as 8-2 ATS when coming off a Thursday contest. Meanwhile, the Green Birds enter 1-8 ATS versus foes off a SU home favorite loss, and just 3-8 ATS against foes coming off a Thursday game. To cap it off, Green Bay QB Aaron Rodgers is 10-1 SUATS as a dog when the Packers are coming off a SU favorite loss, including 7-0 ATS versus .700 or greater foes.

Divisional Game of the Month

Rating: 5 Units

The Bengals are 8-0 ATS when coming off a non-division game when facing a foe that is also coming off a non-division game, as well as 7-0 ATS off a win versus foes coming off a win. And then there is Burrow, who brings a 9-1 SUATS career record into this game when facing an NFL opponent coming off a SUATS win. Meanwhile, the Black-and-Gold are at home following last week’s home win with a 0-4 SUATS ledger at home when coming a home game. Mike Tomlin’s troops are also 1-8 ITS (In The Stats) this season while being outgained an average -85 YPG. Finally the Bengals are 25-1 ATS in their last twenty-six division games they win outright

NFL Play of the Day

Rating: 4 Units

Mike McCarthy, not the sharpest knife in the NFL coaches’ drawer, decided to go for it on fourth-and-3 from Green Bay’s 35-yard line in overtime rather than kicking a field goal to go up by 3 points. The Cowboys failed to convert and the Packers then proceeded to kick the game-winning field goal. Another knock at the door is Dallas’ 3-10 ATS log in this series, including 1-10 ATS without rest. To clinch it all, Dallas is 3-18-1 ATS as a conference favorite versus .666 or greater opponents, including 3-11 SU and 0-13-1 ATS as a favorite of fewer than 4 points.

Upset of the Week

Rating: 5 Units

Coming off their Bye week, the Browns look to be as healthy as they’ve been all season with star DB Denzel Ward and OT Wyatt Teller due back after resting lingering injuries. They are also as hungry as they’ve been this season as they now trail AFC North Division-leading Baltimore by 2.5 games and need to up their game in anticipation of the return of QB Deshaun Watson in three weeks. The Browns secondary better sharpen up, though, going against the top 1-2 WR duo in the league in Tyreek Hill and Jalen Waddle. Hill is on pace for a record 2,085 yards and could become the first ever receiver to surpass 2,000. Nonetheless, Miami arrives 3-8 ATS following consecutive NFC contests, while Cleveland is 7-1 ATS in this series, 4-0 ATS in first of back-to-back roadies, and 5-1 ATS following a division home game. Consider that Cleveland HC is 11-6 ATS as a dog with his current team, including 5-0 ATS against opponents he defeated in a most recent meeting.

NFL Play of the Day

Rating: 4 Units

Pete Carroll’s crew enters on a 4-0 SUATS win skein, winning three of the games outright as underdogs. And speaking of dogs, Seattle QB Geno Smith is 12-3 ATS in his last fifteen games when taking points in this league, including 7-0 ATS versus .444 or greater foes. On the other side of the fi eld, it should be noted that Brady is 3-0 SUATS in his NFL career in regular season games on neutral fields, but only 1-2 SU and 0-2-1 ATS versus NFC West foes with the Bucs. In wrapping things up, it should also be noted that NFL teams with the better record are 19-8-1 SU and 16-12 ATS in Euro games. To clinch is, Seattle head coach Pete Carroll is 7-2 ATS as a dog with the Seahawks when riding a three-game-plus win skein, including 7-0 ATS when taking either 2 or 3 points.

NFL Play of the Day

Rating: 5 Units

Las Vegas has cashed in each of the games, winning two of them on the scoreboard. Like Arizona, they are still on the outside looking in at the current NFL playoff picture. Unfortunately, they’ve struggled against foes coming off a Thursday game going just 4-10-1 ATS. And they’ve also wriggled in this series with a 4-6 SU and 3-7 ATS mark the last ten gatherings. The Saints have won the stats in 5 of their seven games this season, including each of their last three games. As a result, they bring the better offense and the better defense into this fray. They are also 11-4 SU at home when playing off a SU previous home loss. Finally, consider that  NFL playoff teams the previous year are 6-22 SU and 7-20-1 ATS away in Game Seven when coming off consecutive ATS wins if not favored by 3 or more points, including 2-15 ATS if the Over/Under total in this game is greater than 40 points.

Inter-conference Game of the Month

Rating: 5 Units

After starting 3-0 SUATS this season behind the lefty, the Fish ride a 0-3 SUATS skid entering this contest. The Dolphins have plummeted from being ranked fi rst in points per drive with Tagovailoa, to 29th without him. Tua, though, brings a lofty 16-9 SU and 15-9-1 ATS career mark into this battle, including 10-4 SUATS at home. Nonetheless, concussions take center stage in this contest with new rookie QB Kenny Pickett currently in concussion protocol. Steelers’ backup QB Mitchell Trubisky completed nine of 12 passes for 144 yards and a TD in relief of Pickett who left last week’s game woozy with a concussion. Another side bar issue today will be the return of former Miami head coach and current Pittsburgh defensive assistant Brian Flores, who’s has had run-ins with Fish owner Stephen Ross over reported ‘tanking’ issues. However, .500 or greater NFL teams, 0-3 SUATS in their last three games, are 14-1 SUATS since 2000 when facing a foe coming off a SU underdog win.

NFL Play of the Day

Rating: 4 Units

Kansas City is 8-18 ATS as a favorite when coming off one loss when facing a foe coming off a loss, including 3-14 ATS versus avenging foes. The bottom line, though,  the Niners’ No. 1 ranked defense is 101 YPG superior to that of the Chiefs. That being the case, Frisco head coach Kyle Shanahan is 14-6 ATS as a dog with a win percentage of .333 or more, including 6-0 ATS versus .714 or fewer opponents.

SNF Game of the Week

Rating: 5 Units

The stat that jumps out in this contest is that both teams rank No. 1 and 2 in Net Turnover Margin, with Philly +1.8 and Dallas +1.0. For what it’s worth, the Eagles are 2-5 SU and 1-5-1 ATS under Nick Sirianni in games in which they lose the TOs, while the Cowboys are 4-9 SU and 3-10 ATS the same way under Mike McCarthy. Meanwhile, where Sunday night home teams coming off consecutive wins tend to struggle, there is no refuting the fact that teams who just upset the defending Super Bowl champions are close to no shows the following game. The Cowboys are 0-5 ATS in games after Rams, and the Eagles seeking triple revenge it's important knowing America’s Team is a meager 1-9 SUATS away versus .428 or greater foes seeking triple revenge.  Finally, playing against any NFL away team who upset the defending Super Bowl champion in their last game by 7+ points and scored 28+ points if they’re facing a .400 > foe and the O/U total in this game is < 44 is a PERFECT 15-0 ATS since 1980.

AFC Game of the Week

Rating: 4 Units

It starts with KC QB Patrick Mahomes’ 12-1 SU mark versus .777 or greater foes, as well as his 4-1 SUATS record at home versus the AFC East during the regular season. On the flip side, Bills QB Josh Allen has struggled away in his NFL career against .700 or better foes, going just 2-5 SUATS. Digging deeper, the Bills are 1-12 ATS in the 2nd quarter of the season (Games 5-8) with a .500 or greater win percentage when coming off a SUATS win and facing an opponent coming off a home game. Head coach Andy Reid brings in a 28-9-1 ATS dog log into this prime time showdown when coming off consecutive wins, including 4-0-1 ATS at home. Consider also that the Chiefs QB Mahomes is 9-0 ATS as a dog in his NFL career.

SNF Game of the Month

Rating: 5 Units

Baltimore has been outgained in all four games this season.  Cincinnati’s strength this season has been its defense as they rank No. 8 in points allowed and No. 11 in overall yards allowed. They are also one of five teams that have been installed as a favorite in every game this year – yet dress up as a dog today. Finally, consider that  Cincinnati is 12-1 ATS against foes seeking double revenge.

NFC South Game of the Week

Rating: 4 Units

Brady is 12-4 ATS in his NFL career when his team is coming off consecutive losses, as well as 23-7 ATS when his team is coming off a double-digit loss. To clinch it, Brady is 7-1 ATS when his team is coming off a double-digit home loss, including 7-0 ATS the last seven games.

NFL Play of the Day

Rating: 4 Units

Given the fact the Jags, with their new head coach Doug Pederson, are 0-10 ATS in the second of consecutive away games, they are also 0-4 ATS against the NFC East. On the other side of the coin, Philly is 6-2 ATS in its last eight games against the AFC South. All good numbers in the Eagles’ favor, for sure. To cap all of this off, consider that playing one any NFL non-division home team in Game 4 if not favored by more than 7 points vs. a foe that scored more than 24 points in its last game is 17-3 ATS since 1980.

NFC Game of the Week

Rating: 4 Units

Green Bay’s is 14-2 ATS in games after battling the Bears, along with the Pack’s 9-5-1 SU and 10-5 ATS record in games when seeking “double revenge”, including 10-2 ATS versus .333 or great foes. On the other side of the coin, the Bucs are 2-8 ATS at home against foes seeking “double revenge”, as well as 2-7 SU and 1-8 ATS in Game Three’s of the season. Finally the Packers are 11-2 SUATS with a sub .750 win percentage under head coach Matt LaFleur, including 4-0 SUATS when seeking revenge.

AFC Game of the Month

Rating: 5 Units

Matt Ryan now owns a 63.9 QB Rating with the Colts. The saving grace is his 11-5 SUATS career record against AFC West opposition, including 5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS as a dog. On the opposite side of the field, the 2-0 Chiefs – the only undefeated team in the AFC West – enter with a Super Bowl grudge rematch on tap at Tampa Bay next week. Kansas City’s 1-5 ATS record in its last six AFC South skirmishes, and the Colts 6-1 ATS log when coming off a division road. Finally NFL home dogs coming off a shutout loss are 12-2-1 ATS, including 10-0 ATS versus .466 or greater opponents.

SNF Game of the Month

Rating; 5 Units

Rodgers has made a living at home in his career with the Packers, going 69-38-4 ATS overall, including 27-12 ATS in division games, as well as 28-9-2 ATS when hosting foes coming off a SUATS win. Green Bay is 20-3 SU and 18-5 ATS in this series since 2011, including 8-0 SUATS when coming off a loss. To clinch it, Green Bay is 9-0 SUATS in regular season games when coming off a loss under head coach Matt LaFleur.

NFC Division Game of the Week

Rating: 4 Units

Tom Brady comes into this one with a 2-7 ATS career mark when taking to the road as a favorite when coming off a road win after beating the spread by double-digits in his last game including six straight losing tickets in his last six tries. Additionally Tampa is 1-6 ATS away in games with double revenge. Consider as well that New Orleans is 7-1 ATS the last eight games in this series, and 8-1 SU and 9-0 ATS as conference home dogs versus .800 or greater opponents.

NFL Game of the Month

Rating: 5 Units

Bucs are 1-6 ATS as non-division road chalk and 1-6-2 ATS in their last nine games against NFC East foes. Looking to the opposite side of the field we find Dallas at 7-0 ATS in its last seven home dog roles, and 4-0 ATS versus the, NFC South. To cap it off consider that an NFL pick or road favorites who won 13-plus games last season are 19-32-1 ATS in season openers, including 0-4 ATS in games with an Over/Under total of 50 or more points.

AFC Game of the Week

Rating: 4 Units

Steeler head coach, Mike Tomlin makes winning division games a priority, going 65-29-1 in his career – including 10-4-1 in first division contests of the season. Additionally, playing against NFL any division road team not favored by 8 or more points in Game One of the season if they lost in the Super Bowl game last season is a perfect 11-0 ATS since 1988.

Thursday Blowout

Rating: 4 Units

Rams are 5-0 SUATS Game One of the season the last five years, while head coach Sean McVay is 13-2 SU and 11-4 ATS during the first three games of the season in his NFL career, including 7-1 SUATS at home. With public support overflowing for the Bills, we consider that fact that defending Super Bowl champions are 5-0 ATS as home dogs during the first six games of the season since 1980.

Rating: 5 Unit Wild Card Game of the Week

Rest assured, the Bills have been chewing nails since losing to Kansas City in the AFC title game last season. Not only have they played their way back to the postseason this year, they’ll take the field today knowing that playoff home teams who fell in their conference title game the previous season are 44-8 SU and 34-16-2 ATS overall, including 26-3 SU and 21-6-2 ATS when coming off a win of 6-plus points. Yes, we realize that six of their victories this season have come against teams that were using a backup quarterback, but after its 7-0 SUATS winning skein, New England enters just 1-3 SUATS in its last four contests while nearly mirroring its dismal 1-4 start to begin the season. The Pats where out-yarded -406 net yards against five fellow bowl teams this season, while the Bills outs tatted six playoff teams to the tune of +325 net yards. In fact, consider that NFL playoff home favorites who were in the playoffs the previous season are 15-3 SU and 14-5 ATS since 1996 when facing a foe coming off a loss, including 6-0 ATS when coming off a loss of more than 8 points.

Rating: 4 UnitSNF Game of the Week

The Chargers’ Achilles heel has been its scoring defense in late stages of the game, as the 10.3 PPG they surrender in the 4Q of games is the worst in the league. However, Vegas is the worst team in the league in Penalty Yards Per Game which means nothing surprises us in this prime time playoff eliminator. In a game of back-and-forth possibilities, we settle on this beauty  that winning division home dogs of 3 or fewer points seeking revenge in their final game of the season are 11-5 SU and 12-4 ATS since 1980. In addition, playing on any division home dog with a winning record coming off a SU non-division NFL road win as a dog of 4 or more points if they are facing an opponent that has won 21 or fewer of its last 32 overall games is a perfect 7-0 ATS since 1980.  That should put the Raiders in the playoffs.

Rating: 4 Unit NFC Play of the Day

Niners need either a win or a loss by the Saints, and they are in the playoffs as a wild card. Frisco upended Los Angeles, 31-10, as a 3.5-point home dog back in November, and has now won and covered each of the past three meetings in this series. After stumbling out of the gate 3-5 during the first half of the season, Kyle Shanahan’s troops have found their groove going 6-2 SUATS and 7-1 ITS (In The Stats) in their previous eight games. With the horned heads just 3-9 ATS at home when coming off consecutive road contests, and the 49ers sporting a 28-12 SU and 28-10-2 ATS record as a visitor in this series, the points become the play today. To cap it off, consider that the Rams are 1-7 SUATS at home in division games when coming off consecutive away wins, including 0-6 SUATS the last six.

Rating: 6 Unit AFC Game of the Month

Cincinnati comes into this one celebrating their first playoff berth, division title, and season of double-digit wins since 2015. QB Joe Burrow passed for 446 yards and four TDs, giving him 971 yards and eight TDs, and zero interceptions over the past two weeks. And Burrow to Ja’Marr Chase has become the NFL ‘s most dangerous connection. With the Browns averaging a mere 4.4 PPG during the 4Q this season – only Atlanta was worse – look for the Bengals to avenge a 41-16 home loss suffered against Cleveland two months ago. Finally, consider that Cincinnati is 10-0 SU and 8-2 in this series when the Browns are coming off consecutive SUATS losses, including 6-0 SUATS when Cleveland owns a losing record.

Rating: 4 Unit NFC Play of the Day

The Cowboys became the 17th different NFC East division champion in the past 17 seasons when they clinched the crown in last week’s 56-14 whipping of Washington. With it, QB Dak Prescott fi nally broke out of his slump, albeit against a poor pass defense missing lots of personnel. Prescott was nearly perfect in this game going 28-of-39 for 330 yards and four touchdowns. He’ll need a repeat performance today, though, especially with ‘Zona 6-1 SUATS away this season. Consider that Dallas is 5-12 SU and 2-15 ATS at home the last 11 years without rest versus .666 or greater conference opponents, including 0-12 ATS in games with an Over/Under total of fewer than 51 points

Rating: 5 Unit AFC Game of the Week

Miami’s 21-3 win over New Orleans Monday Night was more lopsided than the final score indicated, as the Dolphins outgained the Saints, 259-164, and averaged 1.2 more yards per play. With it, they currently hold down the seventh seed in the AFC playoff picture after Monday night’s win, with two more games left to prove they’re deserving of a postseason berth. With last week’s home underdog win over San Francisco, Tennessee enters today’s fray as the No. 2 overall seed in the AFC playoff picture. After tossing for only 40 yards in the first half against San Francisco last week, Titans’ QB Ryan Tannehill came alive after the break finishing up 22-of-29 for 209 yards and a touchdown. Still, they are just 1-6 ATS as non-division home chalk of 5 or fewer points, while Miami is 17-4 ATS as non-division road dogs of 5 or fewer points. Consider that NFL dogs riding a 7-game-exact win streak are 13-3 ATS since 2002, including 12-1 ATS when coming off a non-division victory.

Rating: 4 Unit NFL Play of the Day

The Dolphins have won yardage in each of their last five games, while surrendering just 272 YPG throughout the course of its current six-game win skein. On the flip side, the Saints did the impossible when they blanked Tom Brady and the defending Super Bowl champion Bucs in Tampa Bay last week. And for that they figure to pay a price today. For openers, New Orleans is 1-9-1 ATS home versus AFC opponents. In the 9-0 victory last week, only one Saint registered more than 17 receiving yards. That was Marquez Callaway, who had a big game. He caught six of his nine targets for 112 yards. Look for New Orleans and its 1-9-1 ATS record as an AFC host to take a hit tonight. The Clincher: Teams who shut out the defending Super Bowl champions in a win of 7 or more points are 0-3 SUATS since 1980 their next game.

Rating: 5 Unit Inter-Conference Game of the Week

Indianapolis reversed a 0-3 start into the No. 5 seed in the current AFC playoff chase thanks to 4-1 SUATS skein after taking on the latest ‘Hard Knocks II’ role Thanksgiving Week, while snapping New England’s season best 7-game win streak last week. And they did it in spite of QB Carson Wentz’s immense struggles as potential league MVP RB Jonathan Taylor dashed for 170 yards on 29 attempts, including a 67-yard scamper for a score. Given head coach Frank Reich’s 10-4 SU mark from Game Thirteen out during the regular season, and Indy’s 8-3 SUATS all time mark against NFC West foes coming off consecutive losses, the points become the play here today. Also consider that Cardinals QB Kyler Murray is 3-8 SUATS at home in his NFL career versus winning foes, including 0-8 SUATS versus foes with at least one loss on the season. To cap it all off, consider that playing against any regular season NFL home pick or favorite on Saturday coming off a loss if they lost to the spread by 17 or more points in the loss is a perfect 14-0 ATS since 1980.

Rating: 4 UnitNFL Upset of the Day

The suddenly listless Ravens have not scored an offensive touchdown in the first quarter in each of their last 7 games, but if you saw the second half of the Ravens-Browns contest, you’ll know why we think they’ve still got some fight left. That was when backup QB Tyler Huntley sparked Baltimore to a near-win at Cleveland, engineering a 19-point second half comeback that fell two-points short in the Ravens’ 24-22 loss at the Dawg Pound. Consider as well that playing on any NFL home dog of more than 3 points during the second-half of the season with a winning record if they were a playoff team last season that is not coming off a loss of 13 or more points and they are facing an opponent with at least one loss on the season who is coming off a win of 14 or more points is a perfect 11-0 ATS since 1980.

Rating: 5 UnitNFL Saturday Game of the Month

Bill Belichick is 6-2 SUATS riding a 7-game winning streak, including 4-0 SUATS versus sub .700 foes. He’s also 20-5 on Saturdays, including 10-2 SU and 8-3-1 ATS during the regular season, and 8-2 ATS as a dog versus the Colts with New England, including 5-0 ATS in games in which Indy owns a sub .777 win percentage. Toss in his sterling 12-2 SUATS record as a visitor when playing with rest and his squad suddenly poses a major problem for the born-again Colts. Meanwhile, Indy has forgotten how win in this series, going just 13-34 SU and 14-32-1 ATS overall since 1987, including 2-17 ATS as a favorite, and 0-4 ATS in games in which the Pats own the better record. We don’t see anything here being broke, and we’re not about to fix it. Finally, consider that New England head coach Bill Belichick is a sterling 12-2 SUATS record as a visitor when playing with rest, including 11-0 SUATS when facing sub .666 opponents.

Rating: 4 Unit Prime Time Game of the Week

QB Patrick Mahomes is just 1-2 SU and 0-3 ATS in this series in games in which the Bolts sport a .500 or greater record, while Andy Reid brings a 2-4 SUATS career record on Thursdays into this contest when facing division foes. On the flip side, the Chargers are 6-2 SU and 8-0 ATS on Thursdays from Game Eleven out.

Rating: 4 Unit - Inter-Conference Play of the Day

Kyle Shanahan has developed a broad home-road dichotomy, where he is 22-16 ATS away as opposed to 16-22-1 ATS at home with San Francisco (more on that below). Included in those numbers is a glitzy 7-2 ATS record on the AFC road, including 6-0 ATS the last six contests. Coupled with Cincy’s 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS mark under Zac Taylor in games against the NFC West, it paints an imposing picture for the suddenly fractured Bengals. Consider that Shanahan is 11-2 ATS away in non-division games against foes coming off a loss, including 6-0 SUATS the last six games.

Rating: 5 Unit NFL Game of the Week

Tampa sits atop the NFC South with a four-game lead over all three of their other division rivals. In addition, Buffalo enters on an 8-1-1 ATS win skein on the non-conference road as well as 5-1 SU and 4-1-1 ATS in games after coming off a SU favorite Monday Night loss. Yes, Tommy Seven Rings is 31-3 all-tie against Buffalo, but in each of those wins he had The Hoodie whispering in his ear. FYI: He is only 2-2 ATS against Buffalo when the Bills sport a .636 or greater win percentage. Moving to the here and now, though, you may be shocked to learn that Brady is 1-6 SU and 2-5 ATS during the regular season with the Bucs versus .636 or greater opponents. To cap it off, consider that Tom Brady is 0-5 SUATS as a favorite during the regular season versus .636 or greater foes with Tampa Bay.

5* Inter-Conference Game of the Week

Setting the table for the Raiders, is the fact that home teams coming off a Turkey Day win are 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS since 1990 when hosting sub .666 foes off win. With the sinners in a three-way tie for second-place in the AFC West, one game behind Kansas City, and currently 5-1 ATS at home coming off a pair of previous home losses – they lost to Cincinnati and Kansas City at Allegiant Stadium last month – it’s time to hand it off to The Clincher: NFL teams coming off a SU underdog win on Thursday are 5-1 SU and 6-0-1 ATS since 1990 versus a foe coming off a Monday Night game.

Rating: 4 Unit 4* AFC Play of the Day

While on paper it appears the Chargers are wobbling at 2-3 SU and 1-4 ATS since Bye week, they are actually 4-1 ITS (In The Stats) in those games. They are also 6-1-1 ATS away when coming off an away game. Cincinnati QB Joe Burrow appears to be leading the Bengals’ resurgence, yet he is just 2-6 ATS in games when coming off a win, including 0-4 SUATS against no-division foes. And then there is Cinci’s 2-11 SUATS ledger when coming off a pair of wins-exact. Speaking of which, we sew up the deal with The clincher: Cincinnati is 3-9 ATS since 1980 when coming off consecutive wins after facing Pittsburgh, including 0-5 SUATS in non-division games.

Rating: 5 Unit 5* NFL Upset of the Week

Chicago has out yarded each of its last three opponents, while holding all three foes to less than 300 yards. And then there is this from the WOM (Well Oiled Machine): Game Twelve NFL home teams who were in the playoffs the previous season are 6-1 SUATS since 1990 against opponents coming off a Bye week. And then there is a cold weather team hosting a warm weather team in December. Given Arizona’s 5-13 SU and 6-11-1 ATS all-time mark on the NFC North road. The clincher:  Playing Against any .400 or greater NFL Road Favorite from Game Nine out who allows 4.6 or more yards Per Rush if the beat the spread by more than 6 points and scored 27 or fewer points in its last game, if they are facing a .444 or less opponent that averages 3.5 or more Yards Per Rush is a perfect 22-0 ATS since 1980.

NFL Inter-Conference Game of the Week

Head coach Sean McVay enters this game knowing he is 4-1 SUATS when coming off consecutive losses, including 3-0 SUATS versus foes coming off a loss. And speaking of QB dings, despite battling a toe injury, and losing left tackle Elgton Jenkins to injury, Rodgers went 23-of-33 for 385 yards and four touchdowns in last week’s loss at Minnesota, snapping the league’s longest SUATS win skein at 9 this season. The big concern for Rams’ backers is Rodgers’ 41-21-1 ATS career record in games when the Packers are coming off a loss. However, it waters down to 13-11 ATS when he is at home in games with both teams coming off a loss. Cap it off my knowing that playing on any NFL team coming off consecutive SU favorite losses, the last an ATS loss by 12 or more points, if they were a playoff team last year and they are facing a .700 or better opponent is 16-0 ATS since 2006

Rating: 4 UnitNFL Play of the Day

A red-faced Ryan Tannehill was intercepted 4 times (3 times in the 4Q) in last week’s humiliating loss to Houston as the Titans were flagged for looking past the Texans in favor of today’s contest. Our QB League database notes that Tannehill is 20-12 SU and 22-10 ATS against foes coming off a double-digit win, including 19-7 ATS as a dog. Note that NFL road dogs coming off a SU loss as a double-digit favorite are 10-4 SU and 12-2 ATS when taking on a foe coming off a win of 14 or more points. The clincher: Tennessee is 10-5 SU and 11-4 ATS against foes coming off a double-digit win under head coach Mike Vrabel, including 5-0 SUATS this season.

Rating: 5 UnitDivisional Game of the Week

The Steelers are 19-5 SU and 15-8-1 ATS the last 24 games in this series. They are also 9-2 SUATS away in games in which Cincinnati sports the better record, including 5-0 SUATS when the Black and Gold arrives off a SUATS loss. And making things juicier, when Pittsburgh is coming off a loss and facing Cincinnati coming off a win, the Steelers stand 7-2 SU and 8-1 ATS in the Queen City, including 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS as a dog. Also consider that : Pittsburgh QB Roethlisberger is 27-5-1 SU and 22-11 ATS away in Ohio at Cincinnati and Cleveland, where he played his college ball at Miami Oh, including 9-0 SU and 8-1 ATS in games in which Pittsburgh owns the lesser record. To finish it off Cincy is 3-7 ATS as a division home favorite while Pitt is 7-1 ATS as a division road dog.

5* NFL Game of the Week

4* NFC Division Game of the Day

Kirk Cousins had a fine day in leading the Vikings past the Chargers last Sunday, when he completed 25-of-37 passes for 294 yards and two touchdowns, as the Vikes moved up to the No. 8 seed position in this year’s NFL playoff picture, as they now trail the Pack by 3.5 games in the NFC North. With it, we love fading teams with huge leads in divisional matchups, especially against those that are scratching and clawing to earn a playoff berth. Green Bay’s lousy rush defense allows 4.6 Yards Per Rush, which fits like a glove into Minnesota’s 4.4 Yards Per Rush offense. Consider that Minnesota head coach Mike Zimmer is 10-4 ATS as a home dog in his NFL career, including 4-0 ATS in division games. Also playing against any .400 or greater NFL Road Favorite from Game Nine out who allows 4.6 or more yards Per Rush if the beat the spread by more than 6 points and scored 27 or fewer points in its last game, if they are facing a .444 or less opponent that averages 3.5 or more Yards Per Rush is 21-0 ATS since 1980.

Rating: 5 Unit Inter-Conference Game of the Week

The Vikings went up 17-3 just prior to halftime, but some more miserable time management allowed the Ravens to score a touchdown in the final seconds before intermission (that’s on you, Mike Zimmer). Still, the much-maligned Cousins had a nice performance, despite the loss, as he went 17-of-28 for 187 yards and two passing TDs and a running touchdown. The bottom line is Minnesota’s season – and possibly Zimmer’s job – is on the line in this contest. With seven of Minny’s eight games this season having been decided by 8 or fewer points, including three overtime sessions, we’ll take a look at the fact that Minnesota is 15-5-1 ATS as a dog in non-division games when coming off a loss under Mike Zimmer, including 9-1-1 ATS versus .600 or greater opponents.

Rating: 4 unit NFL Mismatch of the Week

New Orleans dropped 22 points on Atlanta in the 4th quarter to take the lead, after trailing by 18, then failed on a 2-point conversion to leave the door open for a field goal win by the Falcons. That’s exactly what happened, so we expect to see a frustrated bunch of Saints in Music City this afternoon, taking it out on a Tennessee team that suddenly looks unbeatable. We know better. The visiting squad in this series has cashed four straight tickets, and the chest-puffing Titans have collapsed after rumbling with the Rams, going 1-6 ATS of late. Also consider that NFL teams coming off four consecutive underdog wins in a row are 2-5 SU and 1-5-1 ATS since 1999 as a favorite the following game.

Rating: 5 Unit NFL Upset of the Week

The plain truth is that the Steelers’ Monday Night win over Chicago featured one of  the worst-officiated games we have ever seen. The officials seemingly did everything in their power to decide this outcome. The greatest offense by the officials occurred when the Bears seemingly forced a punt in the fourth quarter. Cassius Marsh sacked Roethlisberger on third down, but Marsh was flagged for taunting – even though he only stared at Pittsburgh’s bench. He didn’t even say anything! Yet, the flag was thrown. Chances are the same crew won’t be working this game, which could be bad news for Detroit. No problem, we say, as the Lions are a hearty 8-1 ATS with rest, while Aged Beef Ben and his charges have gone 2-5 ATS after Monday Nighters. The win-starved Lions should want this more, and if Roethlisberger is as tired as he looked on Monday, Detroit has a great opportunity to get off the 0-8 schneid. Also consider that playing on any winless NFL with rest from Game Five out team versus a .500 or greater opponent if the opponent is not coming off a double-digit win is 13-0 ATS since 1980.

Rating: 4 UnitInter-Conference Play of the Day

For what it’s worth, the most lucrative situation in the NFL this year has been that of road dogs coming off a win of 6 or more points. That’s because these dogs are 12-6 SU and 15-3 ATS season to date. Sure, the resurgent Cowboys are 3-0 ATS at home this year, but they’re still dragging  a 3-10 ATS log as non-division home favorites of 10 or fewer points. Will Prescott make it back? Or will Rush be asked to save the day again? We’re ambivalent since we’re backing a Broncos team that’s gone 5-0 ATS as non-division road dogs of 5 or more points. Consider that Denver QB Teddy Bridgewater is 23-5 ATS away as an NFL starter, including 10-0 ATS versus winning opponents.

Rating: 5 Unit NFL Game of the Week

 Although Panthers head coach Matt Rhule has been taking a lot of heat this year, he’s still 41-21 ATS as a dog in his CFB and NFL careers, plus he’s 4-1 ATS as a dog with the Panthers against foes coming off consecutive wins. The Pats are just 1-4 ITS (In The Stats) in their last five games, so with or without Darnold behind center, we can’t wait to capitalize on the fact that Pats head coach Bill Belichick is 9-12 SUATS away in games when coming off a SU underdog win, including 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS as a favorite.

Rating: 6 Unit Upset of the Year

Teams who upset the defending Super Bowl champion as a dog are just 26-36 SU and 24-37-1 ATS versus division foes the following game, including 19-36 SUATS when not favored by 7 or more points. So now the Saints are 5-2 and hoping to have Winston back and healthy to face Brady and the Bucs when it really counts – in January. In addition,  the visiting team is 4-2 SUATS of late in this series. Toss in the “beat the Super Bowl champ” letdown factor, as teams in division game who upset the defending champs are just 15-25 SU and13-27 ATS since 1990.  The clincher: playing on any .400 or greater NFL division dog playing with triple revenge is 12-0 ATS since 1980.

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Rating: 5 Unit NFL Game of the Week

The Brady numbers become dizzying, and at some point we anticipate seeing some degree of regression. It actually happened in his final season with New England when he concluded the season with a career-low 55.7 QBR. But the move to Tampa was akin to finding the Fountain of Youth. Today, though, he takes on a team he knocked out of the NFC playoffs last season, and for that, we expect him to pay the piper. For openers, the Saints are 10-3-1 ATS as home dogs dating back to 2006, including 6-1-1 ATS with head coach Sean Payton. The Bourbon Street gang is also 5-0 SUATS in its last five regular season meetings with the Bucs. And if that’s not enough, consider that Payton is an annuity when it comes to exacting revenge in division games, going 23-12 SU and 24-11 ATS, including 18-2 ATS as a favorite or dog.

Rating: 4 Unit TNF Game of the Week

The Cardinals, the league’s sole unbeaten team, and currently 7-0 for the first time since 1974 under head coach Don Coryell (why isn’t he in the NFL HOF?). As always, in matters of great importance like this game, we note the Packers are 5-0 ATS versus undefeated NFC West opponents. On the flip side, NFL 7-0 favorites are 0-3 SUATS in Game Eight versus .700 or greater non-division opponents since 1980, while Arizona QB Murray is 1-5 ATS as a non-division home favorite of fewer than 7 points. In conclusion, take the points and relax. Also consider that Green Bay QB Rodgers is 10-4 SU and 10-3-1 ATS on Thursdays, including 6-0 SUATS versus foes coming off a win.

Rating: 5 Unit SNF Game of the Month

The fact of the matter is the Colts’ two wins this season have come against the likes of Houston and Miami, 2-10 combined on the year with 10 successive losses in a row. Enter the nasty Niners, coming off a bye week on a three game
losing skid, while sporting the better ‘O’ and ‘D’ in this contest. Frisco is 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS of late against AFC South opposition. With QB Jimmy Garoppolo back after being sidelined the last six quarters with a calf injury, look for him to improve on his 20-7 SU and 16-11 ATS career mark against non-division foes here tonight. Finally consider that the 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan is 5-0 ATS In his NFL career when coming off three losses in a row.

Rating: 4 Unit NFL Play of the Day

McDermott was going for the win, and given how well Tennessee was moving the chains in the second half, he likely would’ve lost in overtime had the Titans won the coin toss. He was taking matters into his own hands. His own hands failed him, but the gutsy call should be admired because many NFL coaches are too conservative. With it all, consider that defending Super Bowl losers are 2-12 ATS as non-division favorites when facing an opponent coming off a SU underdog win, including 1-10-2 ATS when facing a foe with revenge.

Rating: 5 Unit MNF Game of the Month

Playing on (Tennessee) any NFL home dog of more than 3 points with a winning record if they were a playoff team last season that is not coming off a loss of 13 or more points and did not cover its last game by 20 or more points if they are facing an opponent coming off an ATS win of 7 or more points is 14-0 ATS since 1980.

Rating: 4 Unit NFL Upset of the Week

Today, the Pats return home to host Dallas, one of the hottest teams in the league at 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS. It’s where The Hoodie is 155-41 SU and 110-78-8 ATS in his career with New England, including 14-4-1 ATS when taking points. The Cowboys enter after taking down an injury-laden Giants squad at home last week, carrying a 9-21-1 ATS mark in non-division duels in games after knocking off New York, including 0-6-1 ATS the last seven games. Bill Belichick is 21-7 SU in his career against teams from the NFC East, including 3-0-1 ATS as a dog. He is also 6-0 SU versus the Dallas Cowboys. The Clincher: Playing against any NFL non-division road favorite of more than
3 points coming off three consecutive home games and a SUATS win is 14-1 ATS since 1980.

Rating: 5 Unit NFL Game of the Week

The Browns lost to the Chargers on Sunday, even though they scored more than 40 points and didn’t turn the ball over a single time, there had been 401 instances in the Super Bowl era where a team had accomplished both of those feats, and those teams combined to go 401-0. However, the Browns ended that improbable 401-game winning streak that had gone on for more than 50 years. Consider that 6-0 NFL teams in Game Seven are 1-9 SUATS when facing an opponent coming off a SUATS loss, including 0-7 ATS if not favored by 12 or more points.

Rating: 4 Unit SNF Game of the Month

While the defensive genius of Buffalo head coach Sean McDermott is a given, he continues to fly under the radar in games when coming off high-scoring efforts, going 8-1 SUATS in his career in games after the Bills tally 35 or more points in their previous contest. He is also 6-1 SUATS with Buffalo in matchups of winning teams when his troops own the higher win percentage. With that, we turn things over to The clincher: Buffalo QB Josh Allen is 12-1 SU and 10-2-1 ATS in his NFL career against opponents coming off a SUATS win, including 7-0 SUATS when the Bills own a greater than .666 win percentage.

Rating: 5 Unit NFL Game of the Week

The Niners enter off a pair of SU favorite losses, while the host Cardinals arrive off last week’s underdog win against the Rams. Because of it, the bottom line is this game is packed with value. Remember, the preseason line on this game at the Westgate Super Book was “pick”, so it’s been adjusted more than a variable rate mortgage loan. The Clincher: San Francisco is 12-3 SU and 11-3-1 ATS when coming off consecutive SU losses as a favorite, including 5-0 SUATS versus .800 or greater opponents. Playing against any .500 or greater NFL division favorite coming off consecutive wins, the last as a dog (Arizona), versus an opponent coming off consecutive losses, each as a favorite, if the Over/Under total in this game is more than 41 points is 14-0 ATS since 1980.

Rating: 5 Units

Denver stands 22-10 SUATS at home versus opponents coming off consecutive wins, including 15-5 SUATS in non-division contests. Then there’s the red-hot Bridgewater, who is 21-6 ATS when his team is coming off a win, including 15-2 ATS versus non-division foes. Consider that 3-0 teams in the NFL are 15-1 ATS in Game Four of the season when hosting a non-division opponent.

Rating: 4 Units

The Steelers come into this one 7-1 ATS as dogs of more than 3 points, and 6-1 ATS in their last seven in non-conference road games. The fact that HC Tomlin is at his best when facing quality opponents who own a .666 or greater record, going 37-13-2 ATS when the foe is coming off back-to-back wins, including 20-6-2 ATS as a dog. Pittsburgh QB Ben Roethlisberger is 37-21-3 ATS as a dog, including 16-5 SU and 17-3-1 ATS away against foes coming off consecutive wins.

Rating: 5 Units

Playing against any NFL team with a winning record coming off a Monday Night divisional win and cover if they are facing a .750 or greater opponents coming off a SUATS win of more than 3 points is 12-0 ATS since 1980. In addition, Rhule 36-13 ATS away and 40-19 ATS as a dog in his combined college and NFL head coaching careers, and Dallas a dismal 0-8 SUATS at home in games after coming off a Monday night game

Rating: 5 Units

The revitalized Rams found their magic elixir in QB Matthew Stafford, whose 127.0 QB rating is nearly 40 points above his career average. The horned heads are 7-1 ATS in this series as well as 5-1 ATS in the first of consecutive home games. On the other side of the field Tampa, who has yet to win the stats this season, is 1-7 ATS in Game Three of the season, as well as 1-4 ATS
in its last five games against NFC West opposition. To cap it off, consider that playing against the defending Super Bowl champion as a non-division road pick or favorite coming off a win in which they scored 48 or fewer points if they own a win percentage of more than .900 and are facing an opponent coming off a win of 14 or fewer points is 17-0 ATS since 1980.

Rating: 4 Units

Playing three road games in a row is always tough, as since 2014, sixteen other teams have been in that same situation: playing their last two preseason games on the road and then opening the regular season on the road. Those sixteen teams are 6-10 SU and 5-10-1 ATS in Week One, including 1-9 SU and 1-8-1 ATS if they failed to make the postseason the previous year. Both Baltimore and Jacksonville played their last two preseason games on the road, and then open the season on the road. That makes their Week One game their third road game in a row. MNF favorites dip to 4-12 SU and 1-15 ATS when laying less than 6 points in a game in which the Over/Under total is set at 40 or more points

Rating: 3 Unit NFL Play of the Day

Quite a pair of killers in which the Texans open the season (Chiefs & Ravens). Looked great in their opening 80-yard drive of the season, & stayed with KC, stat wise (9-yard deficit). That wasn't the case when these 2 met last season, as the Ravens posted a 491-232 yard edge in that 41-7 wipeout. Thirteen straight regular season wins for the Ravens (longest active streak in league). Baltimore is in off another opening drive TD (had 8 last year), with Jackson posting 7th game with 3+ TD passes & no picks since last year

Rating: 5 Unit NFL Game of the Year

Battle of two young mastermind coaches in Shanahan and McVay. McVay definitely has the edge with a healthy QB. Hopefully, Garoppolo gets back to 100% next year, because this could be the rivalry that it was back in the '80s & '90s. Third straight road game for the Rams, having slipped by the Seahawks & Broncos (33-31 & 23-20). No question that L.A. is the NFL's premier ball-mover, behind Goff (1,928 passing yards) & Gurley (career-high 208 rushing yards last week), but Rams allowing 27.3 ppg in their last 3 outings. Niner "D" is just about at that level, so we'll take the better "O" here.

Rating: 4 Unit NFL Game of the Week

Quick revenge shot for Falcons, who were taken apart, 38-0, just 2 weeks ago, along with a 424-230 yard deficit. At least Atlanta save some face, by snapping 0-6 SU and 0-9 ATS slides (1st cover since Oct 4) in 23-17 win over Jags. Still -79 points ATS last 10 games, and 0-5 ATS in division play. Panther magic continues, although blowing 35-28 lead in 3rd was a bit scary. Cam simply superb: 5 touchdown passes in 3-of-5 tilts (19 in those 3). Now 18 straight regular season wins. Falcs 1-15 ATS as underdogs of greater than 3 points off 2 road games

Rating: 3 Unit NFL Play of the Day

- It has all fallen apart for the Ravens, who got off to that horrid 0-3 and 1-6 start. At least they've been competitive at home, with first 5 games decided by 4 points or less SU. That is until the last 2 weeks, namely 35-6 and 34-14 losses to smoking Seahawks and Chiefs. First time in their 20-year history, that the Ravens have dropped 5 home games. And it hardly gets any easier, as Pittsburgh not only finished last weeks game with Denver on a 24-0 run, but has topped 29 points in its last 6 games. Ben is now at 337 passing yards per game. No stopping the Steelers now.

Rating: 3 Unit NFL Play of the Day

Seven straight wins for the Cards, who were saved when vet Freeney forced Minny fumble in final 0:05. No question that Arizona plays its best ball on the road (32-19 points per game edge), and not about to go into late swoon after last years disastrous finish (without Palmer, who is now at 4,003 yards and 31 touchdowns with only 9 interceptions). Eagles 6-2 SU when Bradford starts and finishes, but no Philly touchdowns in final 40:38 versus Buffalo. Kelly is 2-10 ATS off 2 wins, and 1-8 ATS versus the NFC West. And Eagles are 0-9 ATS off 2 SU/ATS wins versus non-division.

Rating: 4 Unit NFL Game of the Week

The perfect Panthers stand at 12-0 SU this year, and 16-0 SU in regular season play, behind 2nd best defense in the league, and Newton's leadership (5 touchdowns with 1 interception last week and now 25 touchdowns and 10 interceptions this year). Missed spread last week via pair of botched PATs and 2-point runback off failed 2-point try (497-334 yard edge) versus Saints. For Falcons, it all continues. Five straight losses (last 1:39 at Tampa), and now at 6-6 SU, after 5-0 start, and a horrid 0-8 ATS run (-58 points).

Rating: 5 Unit NFL Game of the Month

Talk about opposite directions! The Saints are in off their 1st no-TD showing in 155 games, with Brees TDless for first time in 46 games. New Orleans on 0-3-1 ATS slide (-61½ points), and 6-12-1 ATS since '14. Panthers, of course, are perfect: 11-0 SU, 9-2 ATS TY, & 11-3 since last year, with their only misses by 3½, 3½, 2½ points. Have topped 26 points in their last 9 games, are +16 turn overs. That defebse is superb, while Cam and mates should feast on Saints horrid stop unit (NFL's worst). And Carolina 11-3 ATS as series visitor

Rating: 4 Unit NFL Game of the Week

Talk about streaky. Chiefs came from 9-1 ATS run, to 3-9, to current 5-0 (+89 pts). Five straight wins, with 761 rushing yards, and a 14/0 turnover advantage. They have a 62-16 point edge in their 2 division road games so far, with vastly improved Raiders victim #3. The dog is 7-3 ATS in Oakland games, with the only misses by a mere 1½, 4, & 2 points. Carr's touchdown pass in final 1:21 versus Titans snapped 3-game Oakland slide, but note the Raiders losing their last home game by 19 points ATS. Chiefs 9-3 ATS as series guests

Rating: 4 Unit NFL Game of the Week

Current Falcon futility continues. Opened at 4-0 (+42 points ATS), but just the reverse since, going 2-4 SU and 0-6 versus the points (-43½ pts). And Ryan, who has been remarkably steady, was responsible for 3 of Atlanta's 4 second half turnovers in blowing a pair of 14-point leads versus the Colts. The Vikings had their confidence shaken a bit with 30-13 loss to the Packers, but are still +44½ points ATS in their last 9 games. Minny is 7-1 ATS off a division game, and a superb 19-4 ATS versus non-division opponents. I'll grab this dog

Rating: 3 Unit NFL Play of the Day

Now that's what I call a statement. Tampa Bay QB Winston tied a rookie record with 5 touchdown passes in 45-17 rout of a decent Philly squad, with Martin contributing 235 rushing yards just for good measure. Indianapolis is going it without Luck, with Hasselbeck leading a 17-0 windup versus the Falcons. So a field goal favorite here. Well, the underdog has covered ALL TEN Colt games this season, and Tampa is 13-0 ATS as a road underdog off reaching 28+ points. Underdog call here!

Rating: 4 Unit NFL Game of the Week

Redskins in middle of Patriot, Saint, Panther, Giant run, so it doesn't get any easier for 3-5 outfit, which ranks 25th on offense. That 210-yard deficit at New England was fully expected in light of the unrelenting machine that the Pats represent. But note a 748-172 Redskin rushing yard deficit over their last 4 games. Ripe for the plucking. Saints in off OT loss, despite another 387 passing yards with 3 touchdowns and 1 interceptions from Drew who now has 898 passing yards with 10 touchdowns and 2 interceptions the past 2 weeks. They have amassed 66 first downs in those 2 games.  Blowouts have become a near norm for the Redskins. They’ve lost 10 games by 17 or more points during the last two and one-half seasons. Historically November is a brutal month for Washington. The Redskins have dropped 20 of their last 27 games during the month, including going 0-4 last November.

Rating: 3 Unit Play of the Day

Peyton Manning returns to his former home once again. What a defense the Broncos displayed in rout of splendid Packers, with a 500-140 yd edge, neutralizing Rodgers, in the process. Now at 7-0 for the 1st time since '98, when they upset the Packers in the SuperBowl. Catching Colts off their Monday Nighter with Carolina is a definite plus, as is the revenge motive for last years 24-13 home playoff loss to Inddianapolit. the Underdog is 7-0 ATS in Colt games this year and Andrew is 2-0 versus Peyton. But Denver is 6-0 ATS off a SU underdog win, while Indy is 1-10 ATS at home versus a non-division opponent who is off a SU and ATS win.

Rating: 4 Unit NFL Game of the Week

A week ago, I gave a couple of solid reasons for backing the Browns over the Rams, such as Cleveland with an 11-3 ATS record as an underdog, as well as 10-1 ATS off a loss. Well, four lost fumbles put those stats into the trash bin. Still, the dog is 12-3-1 ATS in Cleveland games, and the Browns are 9-0 ATS as non-division home dogs. And try 6-0 ATS off scoring less than 14 points. But the Cards have a 34-22 points per game edge away this year, and are 7-0 ATS versus an opponent off a double digit SU loss. All things considered, Card call.

Rating: 4 Unit NFL Game of the Week

Well, what do you know? He's human after all. The initial interception (pick-six) for Brady in win over Indy (not by enough: Colt touchown in final 1:19), so he is now only 14 touchdowns with 1 interception for the season (71%). The Jets just continue to do it, now standing at 4-1, both SU & ATS, with the SU winner covering New York games by 17½, 20, 9, 11½, & 7½ points. So why not another? Home team is 29-8 ATS in Pat games, and New England is at 36.4 points per game in their last 8 games. Jets +39½ points ATS on road this year, but Pats are 8-0 ATS at home versus opponents who are off 2 wins

Rating: 4 Unit Game of the Month

- Eagles finally came alive in the 39-17 throttling of the Saints, who are in search of  anything that will come to their aid. No, those 34 first downs, 186 rushing yards, and 519 total yards (Bradford: 333 passing yards, and now has 8 touchdowns with 6 interceptions) aren't to be dismissed, but consider the opponent. That snapped a 9-0 ATS dog run in Philly games. And the pup is 8-2-1 ATS in the Giants' last 11 games, as well. Three straight wins for New York,  but no cover versus the Niners, despite 30 first downs and 525 yards. Eli a superb 41-of-54 with 3 touchdowns and only 1 interception in that one, and is a respectable 10 touchdowns wih 2 interceptions for the season, which hasn't been the case, recently.

Rating 4 Unit NFL Game of the Week

After facing the likes of Tyrod Taylor, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Marcus Mariota, Blake Bortles and Ryan Mallet, the Colts step way up in quarterbacks drawing Tom Brady and the NFL’s top offense. New England is averaging 37.2 points per game while leading the NFL in total yards and passing yards. Indianapolis is 21-7-1 ATS in its last 29 home games. That record is trumped by New England’s dominance of the Colts during the Chuck Pagano era. The Patriots are 4-0 SU and ATS versus the Colts in the last three years – and that’s against Andrew Luck. The  Patriots have buried the Colts during this span winning 59-24, 43-22, 42-20 and 45-7. That comes out to average victory of 29 points.

Rating: 3 Unit NFL Play of the Day

The Cardinals defeated the Lions with Drew Stanton at quarterback last season, 14-6. Arizona is much more potent this season with a healthy Carson Palmer averaging 37 points per contest. Arizona had covered its past eight games with Palmer as a starter until last Sunday’s loss to the Rams when the Cardinals had to settle for field goals instead of touchdowns during many trips inside the Red Zone. Matthew Stafford entered Week 4 having thrown the most interceptions in the NFC. A short week after playing the physical Seahawks on Monday doesn’t leave the Lions in a great spot either physically or mentally.

Rating: 3 Unit NFL Play of the Day

The Bills have a 307-120 rushing yard edge this year, while the Dolphins have a 284-116 rushing yard deficit. And Miami is a 3 point favorite? As per usual, Buffalo couldn't stay with the Patriots, despite an overly hyped crowd, as a quick 7-0 lead melted into a 37-13 deficit. But Taylor was 23-of-30 (76.7%) for 242 yards, but he had 3 touchdowns with 3 interceptions and now has 4 touchdowns and 3 interceptions for the season. Tannehill comes in with 3 touchdowns and 0 interceptions while completing 67% so far, but that rushing yard edge for Buffalo cannot overlooked. The Bills won, 29-10, here a year ago.

Rating: 3 Unit SNF Smoker

Rodgers has a tremendously balanced offense with Eddie Lacy and Randall Cobb. Picking up veteran James Jones, a wide receiver Rodgers is comfortable with, was a huge plus. Seattle’s defense isn’t as dominant on the road and currently is minus holdout star safety Kam Chancellor. Seattle is far from intimidating away from CenturyLink Field. The Seahawks are 2-9 SU and ATS during their last 11 September road games. Marshawn Lynch hasn’t been as effective on the road and he’s running behind a mediocre-at-best offensive line that when the shuffling finally stopped starts two players who went undrafted and one who was taken in the seventh round of the draft. This has Green Bay’s written all over it.

Rating: 3 Unit NFC Game of the Day

The Cowboys have a veteran, productive, high-percentage in passer in Tony Romo as an underdog against the Sam Bradford-led Eagles, who are all about “potential.” Bradford, a 58.2% career completion percentage person, has played all of one real game for Philly. It wasn’t pretty, and although there is potential to improve, potential at -5 is a tightrope walk. The Eagles could not run DeMarco Murray much on Monday Night because of the scoreboard situation. The situation was that they were trailing by 17 points at halftime. A lot of people assume that when they start 0-0 here, Murray will make the Cowboys suffer for letting him go to Philadelphia in free agency. But he’s no lock to run as well as he did behind the Eagles line as he did behind the Dallas line. Different blocking schemes. And the Cowboys know how to make him fumble.

Rating: 3 Unit NFL Play of the Day

Last year, when the Seahawks played on this field, the Rams (+6½) pulled the 28-26 upset, thanks, in part, to a successful faked punt late in the game. So you know that Seattle who is 47-20-1 ATS lately will be more than prepared. Still one of the best teams in the NFL, especially with that impregnable defense. The addition of TE Graham from New Orleans gives QB Wilson another key option. Rams swapped Bradford for Foles, but their offensive line is still a problem, with the use of rookies needed, so that will take some time. St Louis lost its last home game by 16½ points ATS, and now face determined Seahawks team.

Rating: 4 Unit NFL Game of the Week

There are teams currenty playing up to their potential but nobody is on the level of the Seahawks. They are not only on 5-0 SU run (4-0-1 ATS), but total domination, holding those 5 opponents to 6.6 points per game along with a franchise record of 596 yards in annihilation of one of the better defenses in the league ('Zona). Wilson: 339 passing yards (17 yards per pass); Lynch: 113 rushing yards (11.3 yards per rush). The Rams are -27½ points ATS last 2 weeks, and will pay the price for earlier 28-26 upset.

Rating: 4 Unit NFL Game of the Week

Seattle looks to be near full speed now. They need two wins for the division title, and possibly home field throughout the playoffs. Their defense is near its apex, allowing just 27 points in their last 4 games. That's 6.75 points per game versus Arizona, San Francisco, Philadelphia, and San Francisco. They have given up just 9 and 14 first downs in the last 2 weeks. The Cardinals are still atop the NFC West, but are averaging only 13 poins per game in their last 5 games, are going it without Stanton, and have managed just 2 touchdowns in their last 19 quarters.

Rating: 4 Unit NFL Game of the Week

The Seahawks are again the at the top of the NFL. They have had 379-164 and 440-139 yard edges at San Francisco and Philadelphia (17, 11 pt covers). They are coming off holding the former 416 yards per game Eagles to only 139 yards. The Niners are sinking fast, with a 145-103 point deficit in their last 7 games (5 of last 6 SU wins by just 5, 5, 3, 6, & 4 points). Seattle is 7-1 ATS hosting an avenging division opponent.

Rating: 4 Unit NFL Game of the Week

Home/road dichotomy worm sure has turned in Bengal contests, with the road team on 4-1 SU and ATS run. Three straight wins for Cincinnati, so 1½ up on Ravens, Browns, and these Steelers. Dalton had 1 touchdown with 3 interceptions at Tampa, but Bengals survived, due to inopportune Buc penalties. The underdog is on an 8-1 ATS run in Cincinnati games, and the Bengals lost their last home game by 27 points ATS. The Steelers, with and underdog 5-0 spread run in their last five games, by 63½ points. Ben has 3,705 passing yards thus far, and the Steelers had a 538-393 yard edge over the Saints.

Rating: 4 Unit NFL Game of the Week

The Cardinals got their comeuppance in 19-3 loss at Seattle, posting only 12 first downs, 64 rushing yards, and only 204 total yards. But, they are still 2 games up in the NFC West, & and have won 16 of their last 20 games, while covering a profitable 15-4-1. They did sack Wilson 7 times in that loss, and Stanton was off a 305 passing yard effort, before just 149 versus the Seahawks. The Falcons can move it, behind Matty who has 19 touchdowns with 9 interceptions, but rank dead last on defense.

Rating: 4 Unit NFL Game of the Week

This is one that the Colts just do not let get away, with 37-3, 30-10, & 44-17 wins, in their last 3 games with the Jaguars. You know they are extra focused following last week's annihilating loss to the Pats, in this building. A 244-19 rushing yard deficit in that one, as well. Despite last week, Indy is on a 30-17-2 ATS run, and has topped 32 points in 5 of its last 8 games. The Jags, of course, will be bent on revenge for earlier 44-17 pasting,but have topped 17 points in just 2 of their last 12 games. To cap it off, Pagano is 12-1 ATS off a loss.

Rating: 4 Unit NFL Game of the Week

The Saints haven't lost two in a row at home since 2009 after losing in overtime to the 49ers in the Superdome this past Sunday, snapping a 10-game home win streak. New Orleans is 19-2-1 ATS under Sean Payton at home. The Bengals haven't been the same since coming out of their bye in Week 5. They are 2-4 SU, 1-4-1 ATS since then. Three of those four losses have been by three touchdowns or more.Drew Brees has a 37-to-8 touchdown-to interception ratio at home since the start of last year. Mark Ingram has rushed for 392 yards in the last four games while tight end Jimmy Graham has hauled in 22 passes and scored four touchdowns in the last three games since recovering from a shoulder injury. The Saints have covered 80 percent as home favorites during the past 31 instances.

Rating: 4 Unit NFL Game of the Week

Arizona comes in to this one with another 4-game run, both SU & ATS. The cards are currently on runs of 14-3 SU (2 of those 3 loses by a mere 4 & 3 pints) & 13-3-1 ATS. They're averaging 25.9 points per game in their last 17 games, with Palmer a solid 11 touchdown passes with only 2 interceptions on the season. This is the third straight road game for the Rams, who are 4-4 ATS, but who have allowed 34, 34, 34, 31, & 34 points in their 5 losses, and have yet to put back-to-back covers. Arizona is 7-1 ATS in division play, versus a team below .500 off a SU win. Arizona's 3rd-ranked defense should handle the Rams easily.

Rating: 4 Unit NFL Game of the Week

The Chargers come into this one off 2 straight losses, after a 5-game SU run (4-1 ATS). However, they are +52½ points ATS in their last 7 games, with Rivers throwing for 20 touchdowns with only 5 interceptions for the season. The Dolphins come in on a 2-game run, for the first time all year. But those two wins have come versus the fast falling Bears and horrible Jacksonville. The Chargers are 7-1 ATS on the road, off a DD SU loss.

Rating: 3 Unit NFL Play of the Day

Carolina averaged 34 points per game 2 games prior to last week's 38-17 blowout at GreenBay (38-3 in 4th). But still a game up on New Orleans. Shock has set in for Seattle, with losing 2 straight, although they nearly came all the way back from a 21-3 deficit versus the Rams. In that game Wilson became the 1st QB in NFL history with a 300-yard passing and 100-yard rushing game. Seattle HC Carroll is 7-1 ATS off 2 straight losses, and the Seahawks are 9-0 ATS as favorites off a pair of SU losses.