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Navy +3 5.5% pod

49era +1.5 3.3% play week 13

Saints+4.5 5.5% NFL POD

Boise State -2.5 3.3% play

It is very clear that the coaching change for Boise State made a dramatic difference, and I think it will continue here as Spencer Danielson is interviewing for the HC job, and it’s very evident the players love him.  Boise State lost 2 or 3 games that could have easily gone the other way, and I just feel like they are playing their best football right now.  UNLV has had a great season with a win or a loss they should be feeling good, but Boise State has faced the tougher schedule, and arguably has the better #’s although it’s pretty even.  This game is in Vegas, but Boise State is very much used to traveling here in the past and their fans travel extremely well.

Both teams come in with top 30 YPP offenses, and are primarily a run first team at roughly 58% of their plays being runs.  Boise is by far the better rushing team ranking 7th in rushing success rate, while UNLV ranks 99th.  Defensively against the run Boise 72nd, vs. UNLV who is 58th, but Boise has gone up against an average opponent run defense ranking 48th, while UNLV opponent coming in at 70.8.  I think Boise can control the run game and they have the best back in the game in Ashton Jeanty, while Taylon Green at QB also offers a rushing threat.  In conferenc eplay UNLV is only +.17 yards per carry, while Boise State is +1.88 ypc.  UNLV was outgained on the ground only 3x this season going 1-2, while their win against Air Force they had to come from behind as they trailed Air Force 24-7.

Toledo -7 2.2% play 

The first meeting was a home game for Miami Ohio, and they trailed 21-3 at the half, ultimately losing 21-17, but they were on the road and Miami Ohio had their QB in that game.  Gabbert lost of the season 4 games ago, and his replacement Aveon Smith has not looked good and has progressively gotten worse over his 4 games as more and more tape is available.  Smith goes up against his toughest challenge so far facing Toledo who has a top 20 pass defense, top 25 run defense, and top 30 sack rate, while Miami Ohio ranks 101st in ypc, 111th in success rate, and 101st in protecting the QB.  Smith threw 2 INT in his last game.  Toledo went 3-1 against top defenses this year, and amazingly all 4 games were on the road while their lone loss was by 2 points to  Power 5 opponent to open the year, which was their only loss. 

Miami Ohio’s defense is what should keep them in this game, but overall they haven’t faced many top offenses.  Toledo ranks 15th in yards per play, and has been balanced offensively ranking 25th in rushing success rate and 26th in passing success rate.  They are also 14th in protecting the QB.  Toledo in their lone two games vs. top offenses went 0-2.  Both teams played similar schedules of opponents, but Toledo +1.6 yards per play differential compared to MIami Ohio at +0.6 yards per play.  Toledo will have the incentive to put points and not take foot off if they get out to an early lead like the last time these two met. 

Washington +10 2.2% play / Washington +300 0.3% bonus

Oregon was a 3.5 point under dog on the road against Washington earlier in the season, and now they are a 10 point favorite on a neutral, which is more than a 10 point move, and Washington has not lost a game.  This is just bonkers to me and I understand Washington has not looked great and has been close to losing a bunch of times, but they have consistently found different ways to win games when some part of their team was not going well the other part turned it up.  We saw it from the defense in their road game at Oregon State.

Bottom line this is an inflated price based on recent results.  Washington has actually played the tougher schedule any way you look at it, and what’s not showing up is the last 3 games where Oregon is getting a ton of credit Washington played at USC and at Oregon State, while not only did Oregon get those two games at home, but they got them the week after Washington played them, and the week after they had dream crushing losses.  Oregon State was still in the mix to get to the PAC 12 title game, and USC the same as we saw Caleb Williams crying in the stands.  There is also this notion that Penix is injured, but I haven’t seen any hints of that with his arm at all.  Washington has a very good pass defense, which is what Bo Nix likes to do.  Although they won the first game they definitely got out played and that should allow them to make some adjustments for this game.  Should be a good one as the last two games have been decided by 3 points in favor of Washington.

New Mexico St +10.5 3.3% play 

Broncos -1 5.5% MAX NFL POD

Iowa State +10 2.2% play

South Carolina +7.5 2.2% play 

Florida State -6.5 2.2% play

Jordan Travis was a devastating loss to this FSU team that is still undefeated.  I think the team is mentally strong and rallies around each other.  We saw it in the game last week where they just went on a run the rest of the game after losing Travis.  Overall this is a mismatch when you factor in Florida is 131st in ypp defense, 125th in rushing defense, and the one thing Florida has going for them is their offense and passing game behind Graham Mertz, but Mertz is out with a collarbone.  I think the loss of Mertz is a bigger deal for this single game tha the loss of Travis.

I think Travis’ replacement in 4th year Tate Rodemaker is ready to go for this game in the swamp, a game that FSU can rely on their defense and rushing offense to get the win by a TD or more.  Florida -1 yard per play this season, and that was with an efficient Graham Mertz, 19th in QB rating running the show. Florida State is +1.7 yards per play, and have already proven they can beat SEC teams.  They beat Florida last year, they beat LSU last year and this year, and they’ll have motivation to prove they still belong in the college football playoff without Travis by beating an SEC team on the road by double digits.

Minnesota +3 2.2% play 

Kentucky +8 2.2% play 

Kentucky has faced a far tougher schedule the fact will be are they motivated here at all against a rival they have beaten 4 straight times, while Louisville wants this game to keep things rolling into the ACC Championship.  Jeff Brohm knows how important this game is, but he knows it won’t be easy.  While the ACC has actually gone 4-2 this year against the SEC I still believe this will be a close game.  Kentucky has only lost by double digits to 3 top 10 teams, Alabama, Georgia, and Missouri.  Is Louisville in that category?  I say NO.  

Louisville against good run defenses, which Kentucky certainly has ranking 14th in ypc, and 28th in rushing success rate defense.  Louisville has struggled to win with margin against teams that are good at stopping the run.  Against teams in the top 50 in run defense they have gone 3-1, but their wins have been by 7, 3, and 13 vs. Notre Dame due to +4 TO day.  Jack Plummer is ok passing the ball, but he’s not a difference maker much like Devin Leary on the other side of the ball who has very similar #’s.  Louisville also very reliant on explosive plays will go up against Kentucky who is 16th in explosive plays allowed.  Against top 50 explosive play allowed defenses Louisville has average 4 points less, against top 25 in 3 games they have averaged 6 points less than their season average.

Ohio State +3.5 3.3% play 

Ohio State 9 point favorite and 6.5 point favorite have moved all the way to a 3.5 point under dog which is a 10 point move in 2 years. What has Ohio State done to deserve that type of move?  They have gone undefeated this year.  Of course they are doing it a different way than in the past, and that is with their defense.  I like the fact that the running game is healthy going into this game, and Ohio State has been tested on the road in the game against Notre Dame, which honestly could have gone either way, but they are coming into this game better than they were going into the Notre Dame game because of that experience.

For Michigan, what is different that is giving them a 10 point line move here? They are also undefeated, and have dominated Ohio State the last two years, but they are without Jim Harbough’s leadership on the sideline.  The team has rallied in recent weeks, but we have seem struggles against Maryland, and JJ McCarthy’s reluctance to throw.  The Michigan team has faced a far less schedule when you look at Michigan their average opponent has a YPP differential of -0.23, while Ohio State has better ypp vs. a tougher opponent +0.34.  The average opponent success rate for Michigan is 74.13, while Ohio State is 60.14th in the county.  This year’s Michigan team is identical to last year’s Michigan team.  The numbers of the players with the exception of their HC on the sideline.  I think Ohio State has planned for it, and while Ohio State’s #’s are similar too the biggest difference is their defense.  Last year ranked 43rd in QB rating defense, this year #1.  Their overall success defense ranks 7th against a tough opposing schedule of SR defenses ranked 58th on average last year they were 4th, but vs. 80th ranked.  Their 3rd down defense is #2, and their rushing success rate defense ranks 8th.  I think Ohio State’s defense is much more equipped to deal with Michigan’s offense than they were in year’s past and statistically there has not been as much drop off with Ohio State’s offense 

UTSA +3.5 3.3% play

"Nobody will think we can win, and we'll be the underdog on the road," UTSA coach Jeff Traylor said. "Looking forward to that."

UTSA has the better overall numbers, and an extra day of rest/preparation, but will be on the road.  I think these two teams are pretty even, and UTSA is actually the better team since Frank Harris returned healthy at QB.  To me he will be the best player on the field Friday, a mobile QB, an offense that plays with pace will give the stout Tulane defense issues as they are 21st in tempo in the country.  Tulane has a great QB in Pratt as well, but this team even at 10-1 has under achieved all year.  They rank 106th in success rate pass defense, 103rd in rushing success rate, which are two huge holes to fill against a great team like UTSA that was used to fighting for conference championships.  The teams are even, the coaches are even, and I think it sets up for a close game decided by a field goal.

Seahawks +7.5 1.1% play

Cardinals +5.5 3.3%

Packers +3.5 5.5% NFL POD

Iowa State +7.5 3.3% play 

Texas seems to be feeling the pressure of getting into the college football playoff in my opinion.  They have won 4 of their last 5 games by 7 points or less, and are expected to win by more than a TD on the road at night against an Iowa State team that has beaten the Longhorns in 3 of their last 4 meetings.  Iowa State has a top 50 pass and run defense, which has given Texas issues this season where they are 0-2 ATS in Big 12 play losing outright to Oklahoma, and nearly to Kansas State.  They turned the ball over 6x in those two contests, and Iowa State ranks top 50 in both offensive and defensive TO % per possession.

I don’t trust Texas and Quin Ewers, and now he will be without his top RB Weapon Jonathan Brooks who was lost for the season a week ago.  I expect this to be a very tense close game, and I give the edge to Matt CAmpbell who is 12-4 ATS as a home dog at Iowa State.

Tenn +10 -120 2.4% 

Memphis +8.5 2.2% play

Memphis is still live in the AAC Conference Title race, and this is a massive game at home against two top 30 offenses.  Memphis actually has the better offense and QB, and they're at home getting over a TD, where they take care of the ball.  SMU vs. a top 50 offense this season is 1-2, while they beat a similar North Texas team 45-21, that game was at home, and Memphis actually went on the road and beat North Texas.  Memphis lost to Tulane by 10 (-2 TO), and Missouri by 7 (-1 TO) both are to teams, and Memphis played both games tight.  SMU's defense ranks among the bets, but I don't think they are nearly as good as their ranking.  Even when Memphis loses at home it is a close game.  The last time they lost by more than a TD at home before their game against Tulane was 2016.

Army +3.5 3% / Army +145 0.3% 

Situationally this spot favors Army who had an easier game last week against Holy Cross.  Coastal had a tough game against Texas State, and they have a massive game on deck back at home against undefeated James Madison who is ranked in the top 25.  Army desperate for a win and won’t play for 2 weeks against Navy, a game the hope they are fighting for a Bowl berth and the Commander N Chief Trophy.

This was a meeting last season when Coastal had all off season to prepare for Army’s offense as it was the first game of the year.  That’s not the case this year, and this Coastal Carolina team is not as good as last year ranking 81st vs.running and defending the run compared to last year when they ranked 59th and 66th.  Army’s #’s look far worse, but that’s because they have had a much tougher schedule with 3 power 5 opponents on their scheduled compared to only 1 a season ago.  This was a back and forth 3 point game for most of the game a year ago before Coastal punched in a a TD with 3 minutes to go to go up 10 at home.  This game a road game, and I mentioned the favorable spot for Army.

South Florida +15 2.2% play 

Ravens -3 -120 2.5% play 

Broncos +7.5 2.2% play 

Jets pk 5.5% NFL MAX POD 

Falcons -1.5 3.3% play 

49ers -3 2% play

Ole Miss +11 2.2% play 

Col State -3 -115 3.5 % play 

Arkansas -2.5 3.3% play 

Arkansas seemed to have found something in their bye and with the new OC.  It was a 5.5% max play winner a week ago, and this team needs to win out to get to a bowl game.  Raheim SAnders is as healthy as he has been all year, and had 18 carries for 103 yards against Florida.  He makes KJ Jefferson better, and Jefferson is a guy I have a ton more trust in than the Auburn QB’s particularly on the road. 

When you look at Arkansas' schedule it has been brutal.  So much that this is only their 2nd home game in the SEC.  Their road games at Florida, Alabama, Ole Miss, LSU< and A&M on neutral has to be one of the toughest schedules this season.  Auburn meanwhile had road games against Cal and Vanderbilt.  I look for Arkansas to try to avenge their only SEC home loss and continue the momentum.  Auburn’s 5 wins have come against opposing defense that rank on average 110th (ypp + success rate), and their 4 losses have come against an average defense ranking 50.5, and that includes LSU who is outside the top 100 in both categories.  Arkansas ranks 60th in ypp, and 38th in success rate.  They have a major advantage on their defensive line, while Auburn ranks 117th in sack % allowed, Arkansas is 5th at sack %.  A very bad combination to have on the road against a hungry Razorback team.

Tenn -1 5.5% MAX NCAAF POD

Missouri in a major hangover spot here, and their head coach even admitted that they emptied the tank left it all out on the field against Georgia, but came up short.  Missouri will go back home and welcome in Tennessee, a team who got to cruise and play just a half of football against Uconn.  Tennessee is the better team, and based on what I have seen I trust them on the road.  They completely out played Alabama on the road in the first half, but couldn’t hold on, but I think we see a different situation here at Missouri, a team they smacked 66-24 last year.

Missouri will also have a banged up Luther Burden who is the star and the key to their offense at WR.  He’ll likely give it a go, but won’t be close to 100%.  Tennessee is just a really good team when you look at the numbers I don’t really see a glaring weakness that Missouri can take advantage of.  They don’t turn the ball over, and MIssouri does not force turnovers.  They have a top 20 special teams unit.  They have the better third down offense and defense, better rush offense and defense, the better coach, and the fresher team.  Tennessee does have a look ahead to Georgia, but that game won’t matter unless they win this one, and who knows what happens as Georgia hosts Ole Miss later that night.

Utah +8 2.2% play 

New Mexico State +4.5 2.2% play

Jerry Kill and New Mexico State clearly not getting enough respect in the market.  They have a great match up here today as good running teams travel, and their 11th ranked rushing success rate offense goes up against Western Kentucky’s 127th rushing success defense.  Western Kentucky on the flip side love to pass the ball all over the yard, and rely on explosive plays, but New Mexico State’s defense ranks 42nd in explosive plays allowed, and the strength of their defense has been against the pass where they rank 54th in QB rating defense, and #60 in sack %.  I think they can come up with enough stops, take care of the ball to keep this game to a field goal or win the game on the road.  The last two teams with a top 50 rushing attack that Western Kentucky faced both beat Western Kentucky and rushed for 252 and 323 yards.

Jets +3.5 3.3% play 

cowboys+3.5 -120 5.5% max nfl pod

Falcons -3 1.1% Free pLay 

Bucs +3 3.3% pay 

Boise State +3 2.2% play 

Alabama -3 2.2% play

I'll back the more complete team at home with revenge here.  LSU' sdefense ranks 105th in ypp defense, and they struggle at times vs. teh run and pass ranking outside the top 90 in both form an efficiency perspective and success rate.  LSU also ranks 120th in explosive plays allowed, which is key, because Jalen Milroe will be able to take advantage of one of his strengths, which is the deep pass.  The weakness of the Alabama offense is their OL, and I don't think LSU can take advantage as they rank 79th in defensive sack %. 

Utah State -2.5 3.3% play

San Diego State is a bad football team.  They lost 0-6 to a bad Nevada team last time out and are -1.6 ypp on the season compared to Utah STate who is also 3-5, but +0.5 ypp vs. a tougher schedule.  Utah State top 60 in ypp on offense and defense while San Diego State is outside the top 100 in both.  Utah State took James Madison and Fresno to the wire.  San Diego State ranks 126th in success rate, and will go up against Utah STate who is 5th in seconds per play, and 16th in explosive offense.  Expect Utah State to win this game big.

Cinci +4 2.2% play / Cinci +155 0.2% play

Cinci at 2-6 is fighting for their first Big 12 win against a beatable opponent that they are familiar with in UCF.  UCF comes into this game ranking 121st in ypc defense, 129th in rushing success rate run defense, 124th in possessions ending in turnovers.  Their defense has really struggled with mobile QB’s, which Cinci has in Emory Jones.  I’m not super excited to back Scott Satterfeld again here, but I think it’s a favorable match up.  UCF must run the ball to win, and Cinci ranks 22nd in rushing success rate defense.  I think being back at home will help them in this game

Old Dominion pk 2.2% play 

Army +18.5 2.2% play

Huge game here for Army, and they have by far had a tougher schedule than Air force.  Army is playing power 5 schools from the ACC and SEC, and also have arguably the best G5 team in Troy on their schedule. That’s no excuse for losing to Umass 14-21, but Umass did get an extra week to prepare.  I expect a quick game here, and much like when we took Navy + the points that game was a lot closer than the 17-6 final.  These teams know how to defend each other, and I expect Air Force to have more trouble moving the ball than they are used to.  14 of Air Force’s points against Navy came on a broke play, and a key pick six off a tipped ball.  This is just a lot of points in a game where you have 70%+ run, 128th and 127th seconds per play, 112th and 108th explosive offenses.  Army 31st in turnover percentage so it’s going to be very difficult in my opinion for Air Force to win this game by 3 TDs.

Arkansas +4.5 5% play / Arkansas +170 0.5%

Arkansas has had a gauntlet schedule before their bye.  They had 4 road games against LSU, A&M, Ole Miss, Alabama, then a home game against Miss State where they just had nothing left.  Now they have a bye where they fired their offensive coordinator and a favorable match up against a Florida team that is in a major sandwich spot following the Georgia game and LSU on deck.  Arkansas has 4 winnable games if they get this one they could run the table to 6-6 and get into a bowl game.

Arkansas needs to run the ball to win games, and they have a veteran QB that is excellent in the red zone where Arkansas will have a major advantage on Saturday.  They’ll face a run defense that ranks 99th in ypc defense.  Over the past two years Arkansas when facing a run defense that’s not in the top 75 have only lost 1 game out of 9 by more than 4, and it was by 7, and they were able to put up an average of 35.2 points per game. Arkansas also a team that does not turn the ball over ranking 19th in OTO % which should keep them in this game no matter what on the road. 

Florida is certainly capable of winning this game, but the games that this team won big were games they were able to run the ball over 180 yards.  The Tennessee game was most impressive, but that was a night game, and they will have their hands full against Arkansas who ranks top 50 in ypc defense and rushing success defense, and rank 46% in TD percentage allowed.  Florida’s offense is hit or miss and they rely on long drives ranking 92nd in explosive defense I think Arkansas will be able to keep it within this number with a chance for an outright upset. Sam Pittman also 16-7 ATS as an underdog his team will fight for him here.

Syracuse -2.5 2.2% play 

Buy low situation for Syracuase playing at home with 2 extra days of rest/prepartion against a flying high Boston College team off 4 wins, but a closer look reveals a huge difference in strength of schedule. 

Boston College last 4 games have resulted in wins over teams who are a combined 9-23, while Syracuse has played 3 of their 4 games on the road losing all, but to opponents who are 22-10.  Boston College has gotten to go up agaisnt run defenses ranking worst than 100th in the nation in ypc or rushign success rate defense.  Syracuse easily the best run defense they have faced, and are even better at home in the Dome.

Syracuse needs to establish and run the ball and have a lead to do well, and i think they could do that here when you consider Boston College is 85th in ypc defense, 99th in yards per play, their pass defense is even worse so expect Syracuse offense to get back on track here, and for their run defense to set the tone. 

Texas Tech -2.5 2.2% play

I think we are getting some value here on Tech after their misleading two game stretch, and they are a desparate team sitting at 3-5.  Meanwhile TCU not so motivated in my opinion after their season last year and the season slipping a way with the Big 12 Championship out of mind.  TCU will start backup Josh Hoover who is not as good as Morris, not as mobile, and should allow the Tech defense, which is the strength of this team at home to play well enough to win.  They held a 17-13 lead over this TCU team last year heading into the 4th quarter.

Offensively Tech has out gained their last two opponents despite having their third string QB in the game.  They'll get back Behren Morton for this one and it shoudl be a huge bump.  They'll also get this in a night game at home, and Tech has been so much better at home than they have on the road.  TCU has been awful on the road this year, and the Big 12 as a hole have had home teams hitting at greater than 60% ATS.  I think Tech wins big here with TCU turning teh ball over ranking 129th in OTO %, while Tech is 14th on the defensive side of that #.  Tech also has 14th ranked special teams compared to TCU's 10th ranking. 

Bengals +4 2.2% play

Panthers +3.5 5.5% pod

Old Dominion +21 3.3% play *8pm et

Old Dominion should ride the momentum from last week as they upset App State as a 6 point home dog, a game we gave out.  I don’t sense a let down as they had a bye the week before and they have been playing like this all season long.  James Madison ranked in the top 25 for the first time is not warranted in my opinion when you factor in they have been fortunate winning several of their games by single digits.

James Madison is a run first offense and that’s the strength of this Old Dominion defense which ranks 21st in ypc defense, 1st in success rate defense.  On the flip side James Madison has not faced many quality rushing attacks this season while they rank 1st in ypc defense they have faced an average opponent ranking 80th.  Old Dominion ranks 18th in rushing ypc, and I think they will be able to move the ball on James Madison in this one.  James Madison since last season has faced 7 top 50 run defenses and have gone 5-2, but only 2 games have been a victory by double digits, and they were +4 to margin in those.  Old Dominion has taken good care of the ball and I believe they will do the same in this game. 

Cincinnati +7.5 5.5% NCAAF POD

Oklahoma State has been a dog in their last 4 games pulling the outright upset in their last 3, by running the ball, and forcing turnovers.  That has been the difference, meanwhile Cinci is -5 TO margin over their last 3 games, but on the season they actually rank 45th in % of possessions ending in a turnover.  Their run defense has also been excellent ranking 10th in rushing success rate allowed, and 19th in ypc allowed so they should be able to hold Oklahoma State in check on the ground game, and Oklahoma STate has not proven they can pass the ball ranking 92nd in passing success rate, 102nd in QB rating.  Overall I see two similar teams.  I think Cincinnati is going to be able to run the ball better than Oklahoma State as they have the better #’s overall fur rushing offense and rushing defense and that will be key going into this game. Cinci is desperate for a win, Oklahoma State is not supposed to be where they are currently, and have Oklahoma on deck so I see them just getting out with a win by less than a TD.

Kentucky +4.5 2.2% play

Florida +14.5 2.2% play 

I think the Gators can be pesky here as they do some things on offense that could give Georgia some issues.  Florida’s QB Graham Mertz has been great completing 76% of his passes 12 TD and 2 INT, which is an improvement from Anthony Richardson who was really inconsistent and only completed 53% of his passes.  Both teams off the extra rest and know each other well, both teams play outside the top 100 in pace.  Georgia lost their top offensive player in Bowers for the season, and while there is plenty of talent on Georgia’s offense still that biggest difference between last year’s match up and this year’s match up is the QB.  Carson Beck has played well, but the average opponent QB rating defense ranks 95th.

North Texas +7.5 2.2% play

Memphis just 1-5 ATS as an away favorite under Silverfield, and 10-25 ATS in their last 35 off a double digit victory as they beat up on UAB 45-21, but UAB started a backpu QB, and Memphis was +4 TO margin.  North Texas has been playing well of late, and played Tulane better on the road than Memphis played Tulane at home.  North Texas also proved they could hang with Memphis a season ago on the road outgaining them by 139 yards.  Chandler Rogers is really playing well at QB for North Texas with 8 yards/ attempts 14 TD and 1 INT.  Think this game is decided by a TD or less, and North Texas at home I give them the edge.

West Virginia +7 3.3% play 

I understand UCF has a good home field, but not on a noon kickoff, and we are getting a bit of an inflated line here base don UCF almost taking out Oklahoma and their old QB a week ago.  It seemed like that was a max effort for the team.  Meanwhile West Virginia struggled and lost to Oklahoma State, which is nothing new for West Virginia.  For whatever reason Neal Brown has struggled vs. Mike Gundy, and it happened again a week ago.  However, I actually think West Virginia matches up well in this one. 

West Virginia needs to establish the run in order to stay in games, and they rank 125th in seconds per play and can certainly play keep away in this one.  They got their running QB back in Greene, and they get to go up against the 116th ranked success rate defense, which ranks 112th in defense ypc, 127th in rushing success defense, 127th in third down defense, 133rd in turnovers forced.  I think West Virginia’s offense can have success, and help their defense out.  West Virginia’s defense is very good especially vs. the pass where they rank 5th in success rate.  UCF lives off their explosive plays, but WEst Virginia is very good at limiting those ranking 35th in explosive plays allowed.  They are also 28th in third down defense.  West Virginia is also the better special teams team and red zone team.

Vikings +7 2.2% play 

Steelers +3.5 3.3% play 

Old Dominion +6.5 3.3% 

Both of these teams want to lean on the running game and play defense.  Old Dominion is actually by far the better running offense and defense and they have faced the tougher schedule. Old Dominion when I average out their ypc rank and success rate running the ball with garbage time eliminated rank 50th against an average opponent defense ranking 64.58.  App State ranks 54.5 vs. 67.7 so similar rushing offenses, but Old Dominion is at home in this game, which makes a difference.  Run defense is the biggest discrepancy as App State ranks 121st against an average opponent offense ranking 68, when compared to Old Dominion ranking 27.5 vs. 63.25.  

App State facing a top 50 run defense the last two seasons is only 2-4, with one win coming on a hail mary, and East Carolina  this team, but App State benefited from being at home and forcing 3 turnovers in that game.  Old Dominion coming off a bye here, and on the year holding opponents to 0.5 yard per play less than season average, while Old Dominion is allowing 0.8 yards per play more than their opponent average. 

BYU+3 2.2% play

BYU in night games at home are almost unbeatable while Texas Tech has been a poor road team for a while now.  This will be their third road game in 5 weeks, and they are down to their 3rd string QB a true freshman.  Meanwhile BYU starts Kedon Slovis a QB with tons of experience.  BYU is off a blow out, but before that they had wins against ARkansas on the road, Cincinnati at home.  I think this team will be ready to go, and Tech’s 85th ranked pass defense should allow BYU who struggled to run the ball to move it in this game.  Tech is not a team that forces turnovers ranking 108th, and they are also near the bottom at turning it over ranking 93rd in % per possession.

Auburn +6.5 3.3% play

Auburn has not been good on the road playing poorly at Cal, Texas AM, and LSU, but at home they took Georgia to the wire losing by only 7 points, and dominated their other two lesser opponents.  I look for Auburn to give Ole Miss issues and have a chance to pull an outright upset.  This is clearly a game Hugh Freeze had circled going up against the team that fired him or forced him to resign.  We saw a similar situation last year with Brett Bielama and Illinois who went into Wisconsin as dogs and won 34-10.  We also get Auburn in a buy low situation after they got crushed by LSU a week ago 48-18 after getting off to a slow start it just snow balled. 

On the flip side Ole Miss has not looked very good on the road; they struggled against Tulane for the majority of the game, got handled by Alabama, and even in their last game against Arkansas at home they struggled.  They come off the bye, but I don’t think this team deserves this much credit to be nearly a TD favorite on the road in the SEC and with the majority of the $ coming in on Ole Miss the oddsmakers refuse to move this to 7, which leads me to believe that Auburn is the right side.  Hugh Freeze as a HC is 36-19 ATS at home, 11-3 ATS as a dog.  Ole Miss just 3-20 ATS as road favorites of less than 8 points, and are just 3-17 all time on the road in the series.

Oklahoma State +3.5 2.2% play

Oklahoma State has revitalized their season after back to back wins against Kansas and Kansas State.  Once Alan Bowman came back and practiced with the first team it just seemed like Oklahoma State played much better all around.  For West Virginia they have been playing great, but they lost on a hail mary to a poor Houston team.  They have a good home field, but they typically are under dogs in this spot, but they’ll be favorites here, and I think Mike Gundy is a far better coach 3-1 vs. Neal Brown.  Last year’s loss saw Oklahoma State the week after Oklahoma lose at home and gave up 200+ yards rushing.  Oklahoma State still out gained West Virginia.  I think West Virginia who needs to be able to run the ball will have a hard time running against Oklahoma State.  They rank 94th in rushing ypc, and 78th in success rate.  Oklahoma State has been solid vs. the run ranking 33rd in success rate defense.  They did give up 200+ yards twice, but that was against a pair of top 20 rushing success teams and that just is not West Virginia.  Look for Oklahoma State to continue their momentum and history of success in this meeting.

Baylor +3.5 3.3% play 

Cinci has really struggled this season in their first year in the Big 12.  Actually all of the teams who joined the Big 12 have struggled.  Baylor got a win at UCF in Blake Shapen’s first game back.  Shapen will now be making his third start, and this one after a bye, which gave him extra time to get back in synch with the team, and this should be the best this Baylor’s offense looks all year.  Shapen also gets to go up against a pass defense that’s really struggling.  Cincinnati ranks 114th in QB rating.  Baylor on the other side has struggled on defense, but they have played an average ypp offense ranking 46.2, and Cinci ranks 91st.  Baylor has done well against mobile QB’s, and I don’t have a lot of confidence in Emory Jones passing the ball.

Navy +10.5 3.3% play 

Air Force has one three straight match ups, but I think this is Navy’s best chance over that time period to pull an upset win.  Air Force’s starting QB Larrier is doubtful, and Air Force just played a very physical game against Wyoming. Jensen Jones who came in for Larrier fumbled on his first two possessions, and that’s the one thing that can not happen in a game with limited possessions.  Navy has really taken care of the ball this year and have been able to force turnovers as well.  They rank top 20 in to % and forcing to % per possessions

 Navy had an easy victory over Charlotte a week ago, and facing triple revenge I think they have a max effort here at home where they always seem to play very well.  Air Force stats look very good, but it has come against a very weak schedule, and their #1 third down offense will be challenged this week against a Navy defense that ranks 19th in third down defense, and knows a thing or two about defending this type of offense.  Both teams play slowest in the country, and have not had many explosive plays ranking 100th (Navy), and 126th for Air Force. So a game with limited possessions, Air Force’s QB being doubtful, and navy having a ton of revenge, and the easier game a week ago, and home I think the value is clearly on them.

Georgia Tech -5.5 3.3% play 

Georgia Tech and BC off a bye here, and I think Georgia Tech is discounted a bit as both teams come in at 3-3, but Georgia Tech has faced the far tougher schedule.  Tech was in the game against Ole Miss, and the closes comparable opponent for BC was Louisville with their passing attack.  Georgia Tech is #1 in explosive plays, and top 50 in pace which should give Boston College some issues here.  BC’s wins have come against Army, Virginia and Holy Cross.  Their close loss against Florida State at home 29-31 was misleading as the entire Florida State team had the flu.  Georgia Tech will have an extra week of preparation which will be a huge positive when you factor in Boston College’s only offense is Thomas Castellanos feet.  I think Tech can game plan for it here, and I think their offense wills core some points.  Boston College ranks 113th in success rate offense, and 116th in success rate defense.  They also turn the ball over 95th in % of possessions, and don’t force turnovers 106th.  They just aren’t a good football team, and they like to play fast, which is going to give Georgia Tech the better coached team more opportunities. I sense a blow out here.

New Mexico State -3 2.2% play

Huge coaching mismatch here w/Jerry Kill vs. Dana Dimel.  UTEP is just 5-21 ATS in their last 26 home games, and are down to their 4th string QB at this point.  New Mexico State is continuing to get better and they have an elite offense with an elite running game backed by a dual threat QB in Diego Paiva.  I think that travels well, and expect New Mexico State to get the win here on Wednesday night. 

Cowboys -1.5 2.2% play

Patriots +3 -115 3.5% play 

Browns +10 3.3% play 

UAB +9.5 5.5% pod

Miami +3.5 3.3% play 

USC+3 2.2% play

USC is 2-4 ATS this season, and now they go on the road for their most difficult task to face the Notre Dame team that suffered their season ending 2nd loss. I don’t think Notre Dame planned to suffer their 2nd loss already this season, but the fact is they let the Ohio State game get away, they should have lost to Duke, and Lousiville pretty much dominated that game if you ask me.  This game to me is all about the coaching mismatch, and although I don’t respect the DC of USC for obvious reasons.  Lincoln Riley is head and shoulders above Marcus Freeman who continues to make poor decisions late in the game.  Notre Dame’s offense is also lacking, which is surprising since Sam Hartman is their QB, but Hartman has struggled when competition has picked up, and he lacks the athletic receivers he had at Wake Forest.  

Ironically I bet Notre Dame +5 last year on the road, and now they’re 3 point favorites, which I can’t see that big of a line move in this match up.  My handicap was USC’s poor run defense (120th at the time) against Notre Dame’s strength of running the ball, but USC actually held them to 90 yards rushing in the game. Now doing that on the road poses more of a challenge, but I like USC’s coaching staff more to make adjustments, and this is a pretty big game for the Trojans who want to prove something as everyone is talking about Oregon and Washington being the best teams out of the PAC 12. Lastly, this is Notre Dame’s 8th week in a row playing football and that includes a trip to Ireland to start the season.  The last 3 weeks have been high leverage, and I just have to think and it maybe showed last week… What does this team have left?

Auburn +11.5 2.2% 

This is probably the best defense LSU has faced all year, and Auburn will come in fully rested off a bye after taking Georgia to the end of the game.  LSU’s offense is clicking, but this is their 7th straight game, and the last 3 games have been extremely high leverage games decided in the final seconds.  What does this team have left, especially the defense?  I’m not sure they have much, and Auburn's defense should be able to keep them in it.  Auburn ranks 58th in ypp, but their opponent average offense ranks 25th and they are holding opponents 11.4 points under their season average. Compare that with LSU who ranks 124th against a 46th average offense.  Auburn also the far better special teams here, and their head coach Hugh Freeze 29-12 ATS as a dog.

Washington -3

The Huskies have not played anyone that is on the same level as Oregon thus far, but they have played the tougher schedule and have better results.  When you take out garbage time the Huskies have an average success rate of 38th against an average opponent success rate of 70th, while Oregon is at 53.5 vs. 90.4.  Oregon should have lost to Texas Tech on the road trailing 27-18 entering the 4th quarter, and Tech driving late to kick a field goal to win it coughed up the ball and Oregon took it back for a TD for a misleading 38-30 win.

The Huskies have been absolutely dominant at home, and while the teams they have faced are not on the level of Oregon they have plenty of confidence seeing they went to Oregon last year and pulled out a win as 12 point dogs.  The biggest reason i LIke Washington is their defense is flat out better.  They rank 35th in ypp allowed against an average opponent ranking 61.8, while ORegon is 51st against an average 91.25 opponent.  This is going to be a fabulous game, and I feel Washington is not getting the credit they deserve, and then factor in Bo Nix road splits, which even last year showed up.  Entering this season he has 28 TD to 20 INT in road games, and 30 TD to 3 INT at home.

Bowling Green +4.5 3.3% play

Buffalo is not a very good team this year.  They have faced a far weaker schedule compared to Bowling Green, and have played far worse at home than Bowling Green played on the road against their common opponent Liberty.  I think we are buying low on Bowling Green after their 27-0 loss a week ago to Miami Ohio, but they were clearly in a bit of a flat spot after upsetting a very good Georgia Tech team the week before.

Buffalo is -2 yards per play on the season against an opponent average of -0.16, while Bowling Green does not impress at -1.7 ypp it has come against an average opponent +1.28 ypp.  I think they shoudl be able to run the ball here as Buffalo ranks 130th in defensive ypc, and their should be opportunity for some explosive plays as they rank 25th in explosive offense comparedt o Buffalo who ranks 116th in explosive defense.  Overall this is a strenght of schedule play as Buffalo far worse on offense and defense and has played a far weaker schedule.  Thier average opponen ypp defense is 85.6 compared to Bowling Green's 35th, and their average opponent offense ranks 64th compared to Bowling Greens 37.6.  

Tennessee -3 3.3% play 

Utah State +4.5 2.2% / Utah State +170 0.8% play

Fresno State could be without their starting QB Mikey Keene here, and I think it's trending that way on a short week as Fresno State heads back on the road to elevation for the second week in a row.  Both teams are pass first teams and run tempo, but Utah State has the better passing #'s against a tougher schedule.  Fresno's defense ranks 11th in ypp, but their average opponent offense ypp is 109.8th, and opponent ypp differential is -1.6.  Fresno has played one of the weakest schdules to date, and with a backup QB in Logan FIfe likely making the start I think there is some value on the money line as well here.

Cowboys +3.5 5.5% NFL POD

Rams +4.5 2.2% play 

Jaguars +5.5 2.2% play 

Louisville +7 -120 5.5% NCAAF POD

This game has all the ingredients of an upset win here for Louisville.  Notre Dame is off back to back games that took a full effort and were high leverage results coming down to the last few plays.  Louisville has the extra day of rest and prep, and will be at home at night with their first sell out crowd in 4 years.  Jeff Brohm is the better and more experienced coach in this match up and he is 10-6 ATS as a home dog.  I just don’t trust this Notre Dame team, which has played great defense, but They will be up against an offense that could give them some issues in this one, and Notre Dame’s coaching staff has yet to let Sam Hartman loose. I expect a close fought game, and the home crowd will make the difference at night.

LSU -4 3.3% PLAY 

I’m really not buying into this MIssouri team right now.  Their offense is not balanced despite ranking 21st in yards per play their average opponent ypp defense ranks 89th, and they rank 88th in rushing ypc, and while LSU’s defense has struggled it has come against teams that are top 50 in passing and rushing, and have a QB that can run.  Brady Cook has only 37 rushing yards on 35 carries.  I think LSU can bounce back here and I trust Brian Kelly off a loss, and he’s clearly the better coach here.

I think Missouri is taking money with this line coming down, because the idea that LSU suffered a dream crushing loss last week, and their playoff hopes are done, but I think Kelly can sell to his team that if they run the table they can not only get into the SEC Championship, but the playoff if they win out.  They have a game at Alabama, and Texas A&M at home to wrap up the season.  The playoffs are very much still a thing for this LSU team in my opinion.  LSU’s offense is elite, and nothing Missouri has faced comes close.  Kansas State, and Memphis the only two teams who have top 60 passing and rushing offense, but neither have a mobile QB, and neither featured a top 20 unit while LSU is top 20 in both, and 4th in success rate overall.  LSU’s defense has struggled allowing explosive plays ranking 124th, but Missouri’s offense ranks just 92nd in explosive offense.  

Oklahoma +5.5 3.3% PLAY 

Texas is getting a lot of the early action with 80% tickets and $, but the spread has actually dropped and gone the other way.  To me these teams seem pretty even to me, and there are more red flags on the Texas side.  First off they won 49-0 last year, but that was an Oklahoma team battling major injuries and in the first year of Brent Venables scheme, which was a complete culture shift.  Oklahoma’s defense looks like they have really turned the corner.

Texas red flags to me are the fact that their offense ranks 46th on third down against an average opponent third down defense ranking 82.6.  They rank 27th in ypc, but that has come against an average 83.2 ypc defense, and with garbage time eliminated they rank 86th in rushing success rate.  Texas also has not faced a team yet that will push the pace as their average opponent pace is 90th, while Oklahoma ranks 33rd in seconds per play and Texas is 128th in explosive defense.  Texas beat Alabama, they beat Oklahoma last year 49-0, and this is their chance to really get confident and say Texas is back, but I think Oklahoma is just the better team when it comes to 3rd downs, turnovers, and red zone.  

Patriots +6 3.3% play 

Ole Miss +3 -115 2.5% play 

LSU is a big play for a lot of folks this week, but I don’t understand it.  First of all the home team is 8-2 straight up and 9-1 ATS in the series.  Ole Miss came off the game against Alabama where they did not cover, but LSU missed covering the spread a week ago by 2 TD’s.  I just don’t understand how a team is favored on the road in the SEC with the 70th ranked run defense, 104th ranked QB defense, 119th ranked 3rd down defense, and 102nd ranked success rate defense.  Ole Miss on the flip side is a top 50 offense and defense and they have faced a tougher schedule statistically.  LSU ranks 81st in protecting their QB and heads on the road to face an Ole Miss defensive line that is elite and ranks 26th in getting to the QB.  I think this line is a bit of an over reaction as many were on Ole Miss a week ago.  Ole Miss also +1.6 ypp differential on the year compared to Florida State who LSU lost to is +1.2 vs. -0.25.  I’m not saying Ole Miss > than FSU, but I think they are getting disrespected with this line here.

Boise State +3 2.2% play

Memphis has played the far easier schedule than Boise who has faced Washington and Central Florida.  Memphis needs to throw the ball to be successful while Boise needs to run it, and both defenses struggle, but Boise’s stats are a bit inflated as their game with Washington’s pass happy offense that is hard for anyone to stop.  Memphis just gave up 300 yards rushing in back to back games.  Both of these teams are in similar situation it feels with similar coaches that are under performing.  I feel like Memphis is getting a lot of credit here for the way they played against a Missouri team out of the SEC that is currently ranked.  I’m sorry Missouri is not a top 25 team and they were lucky to beat Kansas State and have not been very impressive to start the season.  Memphis also has a bigger game on deck against TUlane, not that a G5 would overlook Boise State.  Boise State also an extra day of rest/preparation for this one.  I think this game will be a back and forth enjoyable game, but Boise State should be able to run the ball here given what we have seen from Memphis of late.  Boise State is 36-0 when they run for 175+ yards since 2015.

Indiana +14.5 2.2% play

Indiana getting some extra points here in my opinion after nearly losing to Akron in OT and getting out gained by 200 yards.  Indiana has played very good defense against Ohio State and Louisville, while Maryland continues to get hype despite not playing anyone.  The average opponent ypp defense that Maryland has has faced ranks 108th in ypp defense, an average 92nd ypp offense, and aveage opponent -1.56 ypp differential.  Maryland won 31-9 and covered the spread at Michigan State but they benefited from forcing 5 turnovers from a sputtering Spartan team.  Maryland also has a very large look ahead with Ohio St on deck. Meanwhile Indiana desperate to play better and the defense continues to carry the torch.  Offensively they really like to slow it down 105th in pace.

Florida +3 3.3% play 

Syracuse +7 2.2% play 

Akron -2.5 2.2% play 

Some value here with Akron who has by far faced a tougher schedule with three road games at Indiana, Kentucky, and Temple, but they return home to face an underwhelming Buffalo team.  Akron had a very impressive performance taking Indiana to the brink as a 16.5 point dog losing in OT.  QB DJ Irons is real dual threat who will give a Buffalo defense that has been very poor defense ranking 131st in ypp. Buffalo had a misleading final last week after training by 21 in the final minutes before getting a TD, onside kick, and TD to lose by 7 to Louisiana.

NC State +3.5 3.3% play 

Everyone is drinking the kook aid for Louisville who has started 4-0 and will head on the road to face a solid NC State defense Friday night.  You’d be hard to find someone actually on NC State here tonight, but I think it’s a good spot when you factor in they have an extra day of prep and they don’t have to travel and they are a home dog.  Louisville coming off a great game where they lit up Boston College, and they have Notre Dame on deck, who they will host and it will be a sell out for the first time in 4 years.

Jeff Brohm has taken over Louisville and so far so good, but this is not the role I’m looking to back Brohm in as a favorite.  He was just 13-19 ATS as a favorite at Purdue, he was 12-4 ATS as a dog.  NC State value is real as they are 0-4 ATS so far.  I think Brennan Armstrong who was reunited with his old OC Robert Annae may have a chance to have a good game.  They have had 2 road games and Notre Dame at home, while Louisville only had one game on the road against Georgia Tech, a game they trailed 28-13 at the half and should have lost.  NC State by far has faced the tougher schedule as their average opponent ypp differential is +0.23 compared to Louisville -1.03.  

Louisville ranks 101st in ypp defense, 111th in defensive sack %, and 84th in 3rd down defense yet they are a road favorite. I’m not buying it.  I expect a tight game, but NC State is poised for their best showing of the season.  They trailed Notre Dame at home by only 7 points entering the 4th quarter.  Armstrong ended up throwing 3 INT.  NC State has only 1 TO in their other 3 games.  I think NC State’s defensive line at home will be the difference.  They rank 28th in sack %, and Louisville has yet to face a defense that can get after the QB.

Titans +3.5 2.2% play 

Colts +8 2.2% play 

Falcons +3.5 2.5% play 

Broncos +6 5.5% MAX POD

Georgia Tech +4 3.3% play

Wake Forest is a very misleading 3-09 when you factor in their easy schedule of Elon, Vanderbilt, and Old Dominoin who they trailed 24-7 late in the third quarter last week.  With the 3-0 record they are actually only +-0.2 yards per play and that has come against an average opponent rank of -0.2 ypp margin.  On the flip side Georgia Tech has played an average Ypp differential opponent of +1.65. 

I really think Georgia Tech has the edge at QB with transfer QB King ranking 29th in QBR.  They have been very good at protecting him and converting third downs top 50 in both categories, and they were right in the game against Ole Miss last week, a game that they trailed by 7 late in the 4th quarter which end up being a very bad beat as we had Georgia Tech +17.5.  I think its a good time to sell on Wake Forest. 

Oklahoma State +3.5 2.2% play

Oklahoma State and Iowa State look like two challenging offenses, but MIke Gundy has sort of owned Matt Campbell over the years and they have been unable to win with any sort of margin.  Not to mention the total has dropped two points to a whopping 35 and the weather looks horrible with 17mph winds and some rain in the forecast.  This line has moved in favor of Iowa State, but I don’t see why or how both of these teams have shown up as equally bad.

Alabama -6.5 2.2% play 

Extreme buy low spot on Alabama after they lost at home to Texas they had a bit of a hang over against South Florida on the road last week, and now they come back home to play Ole Miss, but I believe Alabama will be ready to play their best game of the season.  If anything good came out of the South Florida game it was that their no longer should be a QB controversy as Tyler Buchner went 5-14  for 34 yards against South Florida.  Jalen Milroe is a dynamic player running the ball and he can throw the deep ball beautifully and gives Alabama the best shot to win here.  

Ole Miss defense is just not doing anything for me here.  They gave up over 500 yards to Georgia Tech last week and a misleading cover, and they struggled with Tulane with a back up QB, but still won and covered the game so we are coming with a nice buy low sell high situation and we have Nick Saban with extra motivation.

Auburn +8.5 3.3% play 

I know Auburn is a bit banged up, but that is why this spread is getting up above 8 points.  They’ll have their QB’s who both offer different strengths with Thorne and Ashford.  I think Auburn is a difficult team to defend and I think this number is too large, while Auburn has played well, and are stout on defense.  I think the Aggies could struggle in what should be a one possession game, which has been historically the way Jimbo likes to coach.   Hugh Freeze is a great coach as a dog including 16-6 ATS as an away dog, and I think that will continue at Auburn.  We don’t really know much about Auburn as they brought in a lot of transfers, and have yet to show their identity other than the fact that they are a run first team still.  Their stats are better against similar competition and I can’t help but think Hugh Freeze has saved a little something for his return to the SEC.  

A lot of experts are discounting Auburn’s struggles against Cal, but they did win the game, while A&M gave up 48 points in a loss to Miami.  Why aren’t we making a big deal about that loss?  Cal has looked very good early on and their statistical profile is actually similar to Miami.  I am just not so sure how good of a coach Jimbo Fisher is at this point and he is surely not one to get margin in a game.  We hear the hype around A&M every year, and every year they disappoint.  Bobby Petrino has taken over the offense, which is a good thing for the Aggies, but this is a big test against a defense that has been solid ranking 10th in QB rating defense, 20th in ypp defense.

Army +13 2.2% play

Syracuse has a massive look ahead to Clemson next week and they have a really poor sandwich spot here facing Army after they impressed many a week ago against Purdue, but after last night I really am not impressed with Purdue and Syracuse benefitted from 4 Purdue turnovers a week ago. Syracuse is a bit over value in my opinion because they are 3-0 SU & ATS, but have faced two of the worst teams in FBS/FCS.  Army meanwhile flying under the radar and have a very strong defense.  They are a very troubling team to prepare for, and look to be throwing the ball more this year, but overall will slow this game down.  Army dominated UTSA as a dog a week ago, and love playing service academies in this role

San Diego State +7 3.3% play

SD State value here is a home dog after a brutal start of the season due to the tough schedule they have played *UCLA, Oregon State, and a very good MAC Ohio team.  They welcome in Boise State to kick off the Mountain West season, and really what is Boise State at this point?  I just have not been impressed.  They are a one dimensional offense led by Taylen Green who is prone to interceptions and has not played well at all on the road.  Boise State's defense has not looked good and have been deceptively bad.  San Diego State will look to revenge last year's loss and I think they'll have a chance to pull the outright upset.