902 Houston and Tampa Bay

Big hitting advantage for the Rays here as we see a battle of lefties taking the mound. Tampa Bay is fourth in baseball with a wRC+ of 121 on the season. Houston on the other hand is 20th with a 94 wRC+. Keep in mind league average is 100. Houston has struggled away from home with a 13-25 record, while Tampa sits at 22-14 away from the Trop. The Rays also have a huge back of the bullpen advantage going 4-3 in extra innings, and 16-7 in one run games. The Astros counter with 2-7 in extras and 12-15 in one run contests. The Rays put this series in the rearview mirror tonight.

PLAY TAMPA BAY

967 Tampa Bay & Houston

The Rays have a 105 wRC+ vs righties, while the Astros are 94 wRC+ against southpaws. The major advantage from a pitching standpoint is the Tampa Bay bullpen, as we simply do not trust the pitchers in this Houston pen. Case in point is the records in extra innings and one run games. Tampa is a combined 19-8 while Houston sits at 12-22. The fact is this Tampa team is built to win close games. Throw in the fact that the Rays are 21-12 on the road, and Houston is 13-25 away from home, and we have quite an edge with the Rays.

PLAY TAMPA BAY

909 Miami at Atlanta

The Marlins have a 111 wRC+ vs lefties, while the Braves are 126 vs righties. Both teams hitting much better than league average. Miami has the better road record, 22-14 vs 16-14. Sandy Alcantara has a 59 average game score in three starts against the Braves. Max Fried has a 48 average game score in his last five starts against Miami. Overall the past seven starts have shown both pitchers with a 55 average game score. While we understand that the Braves should be favored, this line is very much inflated in our eyes.

PLAY MIAMI

949 St Louis at San Diego

Nice price on the road underdog Cardinals here. Kwang Hyun Kim has an average game score of 60 in his last seven starts. But a closer look shows just how hard he is to hit the first time you see him. Against Milwaukee the first time he posted a 74 game score, down to 54 in his next start against the Brewers. Facing Pittsburgh for the first time he had a 66 game score, but dropped to 43 the second time the Pirates saw him. Same with Cincinnati, 69 the first time and 63 the second. Obviously this is the first time he will face San Diego.

Chris Paddack regressed as expected this season. He got off to a red hot start last year and faded a bit down the stretch. This year he has a 4.73 ERA and his last seven starts show him as a league average 50 game score. Clear pitching advantage here for the underdog.

PLAY ST LOUIS

937 Chicago White Sox at Oakland

Oakland has a wRC+ of 104 vs righties, but the Sox have a whopping 143 wRC+ vs lefties. In fact, Chicago is 14-0 on the season when facing a lefty starter. Luzardo has a 51 average game score in his last seven starts. Giolito in that same time frame is at 67. Lucas G has faced the A’s twice in his career posting game scores of 53 and 66, league average is 50. 

The Sox enter this series slumping a bit, but that just helps keep this line in control. 

Keep in mind that teams did not face equal schedules this year. The White Sox competed in a division with three playoff teams, the A’s on the other hand had themselves and Houston. Can’t understand why the A’s would throw a lefty against this lineup, but we will take advantage of it.

PLAY CHICAGO WHITE SOX

934 Houston at Minnesota

Minnesota has a 108 to 102 wRC+ advantage on the season vs righties, compared to Houston. The Astros have been terrible on the road with a 9-23 record. The Twins have been outstanding at home with a 24-7 mark. When playing .500 teams or better the Astros stand at 4-13 on the season, while Minnesota is 18-12. 

In the last seven starts overall Greinke has a 47 average game score, his best start was a 56 against the lowly Texas offense. 

Kenta Maeda has likely been the best free agent signing this season. His average game score in his last seven starts has been 65. His worst start of 56 equalled Greinke’s best start. 

This is the third straight series Houston is playing on the road, while the Twins are playing its third straight series at home. The price is steep but for good reason.

PLAY MINNESOTA

920 Cincinnati at Minnesota

Hitting against righties the Twins have a 110 to 94 wRC+ advantage. Tyler Mahle has fit in well with the Reds, but a closer examination shows he has been much better at home than on the road. On the road he has been a league average starter with a 50 game score, but when at home his game score numbers have been 63, 58, 71, 74 and 45. Jose Berrios has been very consistent with game scores of 78, 45, 68, 53 and 67 his last six outings. With the Twins being 23-5 at home this season, this number looks like a bargain.

PLAY MINNESOTA

905 Chicago White Sox at Cleveland

Offensively looking at wRC+ the White Sox have a 24% hitting advantage in this contest. Aaron Civale has faced Chicago four times in the last two years with an average game score of 53. His last three overall starts at Progressive Field have shown game scores of 48, 57 and 53. 

Dane Dunning has been very impressive with an average game score of 60 since his promotion. In his first game against an opponent his numbers are 47, 73, 68 and 70. He has been especially good when teams haven’t seen him before, and this will be the first time the Tribe has faced him. 

The White Sox are fighting for the top spot in the playoffs, while Cleveland is basically locked into the Wild Card contest. Look for a big effort out of Dunning and the Sox here.

PLAY CHICAGO WHITE SOX

967 Kansas City at Milwaukee

Neither team is very good vs right-handers, with Milwaukee at a wRC+ of 85 and the Royals at 89. But we do like the pitching matchup for Kansas City. Brad Keller has a 60 average game score in his last seven starts. He hasn’t given up a home run in 43.2 innings of work. Is it sustainable? Of course not, but in the last three seasons he has only allowed 22 homers in 349.1 total innings. So he has long term homer suppression. He is built up to go a long way today with his last three starts showing total pitches of 111, 106 and 103. 

Josh Lindblom has a 48 average game score this season. His return to the majors hasn’t been as smooth as he would have liked. He hasn’t gotten a victory in his last six starts. We don’t think he and the Brewers deserve to be substantial favorites here.

PLAY KANSAS CITY

920 Atlanta at New York Mets

Two highly touted starters take the hill in the Big Apple tonight. Ian Anderson has been terrific in his first four starts with an average game score of 65. He has been fortunate with the long ball allowing a single home run over 22 innings of work. David Peterson hasn’t been as flashy, but he did put up a 57 game score the first time he faced these Braves. 

The Braves pound vs righties, but only have a 93 wRC+ vs lefties this season. The Mets on the other hand dominate righties with a 128 wRC+ on the season, tied for first in all of baseball. Nice spot to fade the start of Anderson, catching the Mets at home at an inflated price.

PLAY NEW YORK METS

918 Los Angeles Dodgers at Colorado

Could very well be a letdown spot here for the Dodgers after taking 2 of 3 against the up and coming Padres. LA is only posting a wRC+ of 101 vs lefties, while the Rockies come is with a wRC+ of 94 vs southpaws. So the LA offensive advantage is minimal. Urias hasn’t been very good against the Rockies with an average game score of 39 in his last five matchups. In Colorado his scores have been 24, 39 and 38. Freeland is having a really strong year despite back to back 27 and 25 games scores 3 and 4 starts ago. He’s bounced back with 69 and 58 game scores his last two outings against the Padres and Angels. 

After facing the Astros and Padres, there is value against the Dodgers tonight.

PLAY COLORADO

976 Cleveland at Chicago Cubs

The Indians have now lost seven straight games. In a season of 60 a streak of this kind can really be a killer. And that’s what has happened as just a week or so ago the Tribe was battling for first place in the division. How it’s hanging on to the last Wild Card spot. 

Aaron Civale has a 55 average game score his last seven starts, but five of those came against the dregs of the league when hitting righties. Detroit has a wRC+ of 84, Kansas City 90, Milwaukee 81, Pittsburgh 62 and St Louis 96. All below the league average of 100. The Cubs sit at 102 wRC+ on the season. 

Jon Lester isn’t nearly the pitcher he used to be, but he has had no problem with the Tribe. In his last five starts against the Indians his average game score was 64, with a 1.73 ERA. He is coming off his best start of the season, and Cleveland’s wRC+ vs lefties is 75. 

PLAY CHICAGO CUBS

962 Atlanta at Baltimore

Battle of two lefties tonight in Baltimore. Cole Hamels returns from the DL for his first appearance of the season. His pitch count will likely be low since he has been out so long. While once a legit top of the line starter, he’s now just an average MLB pitcher. Keegan Akin looked great in his first two starts of the year. But as expected the Yankees saw him twice in the same week and the second start resulted in a 30 game score. Now that he’s facing the Braves for the first time we expect a successful outing. We’ve always loved backing unknown left-handed starters the first time through the league. Baltimore should have a solid pitching edge here. 

As good as the Braves have been this season vs righties, their wRC+ vs lefties is only 89, 11% worse than league average. Baltimore comes in at a wRC+ of 102 against southpaws. Nice underdog price here with the O’s.

PLAY BALTIMORE

920 Cincinnati at St Louis

The Cardinals have dominated this series the past three seasons winning 29 of 45 meetings. Adam Wainwright isn’t the dominant pitcher he was in the past but his command and control this season has been excellent. Wainwright has just nine walks in 40.1 innings of work. He’s also been one of the most consistent starters in all of baseball. In six 2020 starts his game scores have been 66, 59, 57, 49, 78 and 58. Keep in mind the MLB average is 50, so you know when you bet on Wainwright in 2020 you are going to get a good effort. 

Luis Castillo has had nice success against the Cards with an average game score of 56 in his last five starts in this series. But in his last seven starts overall he is a league average of 50. Cincinnati is only averaging 3.4 runs per contest offensively its last ten games, with a high of six. This isn’t a team crossing the plate on a regular basis. On the season vs righties the Cards are a league average 100, while the Reds are 89, 11% worse than league average. 

PLAY ST LOUIS

967 San Francisco at San Diego

Two righties go dead to head in this one as Cahill and Paddock do battle. Both teams have hit righties well this year with the Padres coming in at a wRC+ of 125 and the Giants 110. That give the host a 15% offensive edge. But when looking at the starters it’s been Trevor Cahill who has had the more impressive season. His game scores this year have been 50, 50, 68, 53 and 53. All league average or better. Chris Paddack is averaging a 47 game score on the season. In his MLB career he has permitted 33 home runs in just 188 innings. Even in his last two starts in which he didn’t allow a homer, his average game score was just 52. 

Over the last three seasons the Giants have won 22 of the 41 meetings. Over the last ten games overall, the Giants have scored 71 runs while allowing just 36. And you are going to make them an underdog of this magnitude? We don’t think so, give us the Giants at this inflated price.

PLAY SAN FRANCISCO

903 Kansas City at Cleveland

Danny Duffy has pitched very well on the road this year. His last four road starts graded out with game scores of 46, 64, 64 and 52. Considering that those four games were against the White Sox, Twins, Cubs and Tigers is even more impressive. When grading by wRC+ the Sox are 150 and the Tigers are 132, the top two teams in baseball vs lefties. And we know how good the Cubs and Twins are offensively. 

Carlos Carrasco is often heavily bet because of his name, but his average game score in his last seven starts is 54. Good but not overly impressive. In fact, his last five starts against the Tigers graded out at 48. 

The Indians deserve to be favored today but this line is much too high.

PLAY KANSAS CITY

971 Los Angeles Angels at Texas

Andrew Heaney faced the Rangers a month ago and was hit hard resulting in a 29 game score. But his previous four starts against Texas were game scores of 64, 62, 84 and 69. On the season Texas is 2nd last in baseball vs lefties with a wRC+ of 65. The Rangers enter this game dropping 8 of 9 overall. 

Lance Lynn was hoping to be traded at the deadline, but that didn’t happen. His first start after that disappointment was his worst start of the season, a 37 game score against the Astros. With Texas just playing out the string and bringing up your players for an audition for the future, we can’t see Lynn overly excited to bring his “A” game from here on out. The Angels have a 120 wRC+ vs righties, good for fifth best in baseball. This number has been bought up by the wise guys overnight, but still has plenty of value.

PLAY LOS ANGELES ANGELS

911 Tampa Bay at Washington

The Nationals return home off a long road trip in which it won just 2 of 10 games. Washington is only 6-13 on the season at home. The Nationals wRC+ against righties is 94, 6% below league average.

Tampa Bay has a 110 wRC+ vs righties and are 14-7 on the season on the road. Morton and Scherzer come out virtually equal on the mound, and we prefer the Rays bullpen in this matchup. Better team with a plus price than has proven themselves on the road.

PLAY TAMPA BAY

976 Texas at Seattle

Jordan Lyles has been a train wreck this season. His five starts have resulted in game scores of 10, 23, 39, 47 and 36. Two of those starts came against Seattle. The Mariners have a 102 wRC+ vs righties, and have won 7 of its last 10 games overall. 

Justin Dunn has been a league average pitcher this season, despite allowing five homers in his 27 innings of work. Texas against righties have a wRC+ of 62, 38% worse than league average. The Rangers have lost 8 of 10 games as of late, scoring four runs or less 8 of those 10 games. With a 7-15 record vs right-handed pitchers, and a 4-15 record on the road, we will lay it with the host.

PLAY SEATTLE

957 Washington at Atlanta

The numbers say the Nationals are only 5-21 on the season vs righties. But that’s not the entire picture, as they have a wRC+ of 96, just 4% below the MLB average. Josh Tomlin has done a nice job in the Braves bullpen. But because of injuries and lack of performance he’s now in the starting rotation. In his three starts this season his game scores have been 38, 36 and 43. The past three seasons he has pitched 172.1 innings and has allowed 43 homers! He gave up the long ball on a regular basis when in Cleveland also. 

Patrick Corbin in his last five starts vs Atlanta has an average game score of 56. League average is 50. He allows less than one homer per game the past three seasons. The Braves have a wRC+ of 78 against lefties. Nice price here with the reigning champions.

PLAY WASHINGTON

926 Texas at Seattle

The Rangers are dead last in the league vs lefties with a wRC+ of 65. That’s 35% worst than an average team. The Rangers have also dropped 7 of its last 9 games overall, while scoring 4 runs or less in 8 of 10 games. Justus Sheffield has an average game score of 55 in his last four outings. Kyle Gibson on the other hand has put up game scores of 41, 37, 35, 52 and 30 his last five starts. Seattle has a 101 wRC+ on the season vs righties. Money has been flowing towards the Mariners all day, and we agree.

PLAY SEATTLE

980 Arizona at San Francisco

The Diamondbacks are 1-9 on the season vs lefties with a wRC+ of 64, tied for worst in baseball. Tyler Anderson is facing Arizona for the third time in the last two weeks. In his last outing against this squad he struggled badly with an 18 game score. We expect the young southpaw to make the needed adjustments against this Arizona team who has dropped 9 of its last 10 games overall. 

Taylor Clark looked good against the Giants last time out with a 67 game score. But his previous three games against San Francisco resulted in game scores of 29, 22 and 54. With the Giants having a 106 wRC+ vs righties, also with the Diamondbacks being 5-15 away from home. We have plenty of value on the host.

PLAY SAN FRANCISCO

913 Chicago WS at Kansas City

Looking to jump on this Sox lineup once again when facing a lefty. Now 11-0 on the season with a league leading wRC+ of 157. A full 23% higher than the next best team. Dylan Cease has road game scores of 58, 51 and 57 his last three away starts. This is his third start against the Royals this year with game scores of 57 and 56. Normally you would look for some type of letdown after facing Minnesota, but the Sox dropped those last two meetings. So therefore we can probably ignore the letdown here. 

PLAY CHICAGO WHITE SOX

967 Detroit at Milwaukee

We cashed big on the Tigers yesterday, and yet for the second straight game the Brewers are taking money. Spencer Turnbull should be a major money maker this year after 6.06 and 4.61 ERA’s the past two seasons. What we love about the Tigers righty is that he doesn’t give up the long ball. The last three seasons he has permitted just 15 home runs in 195 innings. The Tigers are 12-13 vs righties with a wRC+ of 94, while the Brewers are 10-14 with a wRC+ of 70. Detroit is 8-6 on the road, while Milwaukee is 7-10 at home. Adrian Houser got out of the gate fast this season, but has faltered as of late. Game scores of 42, 47, 45 and 30. Not ideal when the league average is 50. 

PLAY DETROIT

953 St Louis at Cincinnati

Not only did the Cardinals pound the Reds last night 16-2, but they have dominated this series 29-15 the past three years. Tyler Mahle has an average game score of 43 the last five meetings with St Louis. The Cards are 13-11 vs righties with a wRC+ of 109. The Reds are 10-17 vs righties with a wRC+ of 93. Cincinnati is also just 7-11 at home. The Reds bullpen used five pitchers last night, each throwing 19 pitches or more. That included key late inning relievers like Bradley, Thornburg, Jones and Iglesias. 

PLAY ST LOUIS

951 San Francisco at Colorado

Kyle Freeland has a 46 average game score against the Giants the last five meetings. His last three games overall at home produced game scores of 27, 56 and 46. The only quality start was against Arizona who is second worst in baseball vs left-handers. The Giants have a 119 wRC+ against lefties. Colorado is 9-16 vs righties with a wRC+ of 75, fourth worst in the majors. Here are the pitch counts from the Colorado bullpen yesterday, 50, 32, 27 and 23. Want no part of these free falling Rockies who are just 8-12 at home. 

PLAY SAN FRANCISCO

915 Detroit at Milwaukee

Both starting pitchers have really struggled to open the season. Fulmer coming off injury, and Lindblom returning from South Korea. Detroit will likely go to the bullpen first as Fulmer’s high pitch count has been 63. But that’s probably a good thing considering the struggles of these starters. Detroit has a better record against righties, 11-13 to 10-13. The wRC+ numbers show Detroit at 89, and Milwaukee at 70. So we get the better hitting team vs righties catching a huge plus payoff. Add in the fact that the Tigers are 7-6 on the road and Brewers 7-9 at home. This line makes no sense whatsoever. It’s all based on name recognition and not 2020 reality. We simply cannot pass up this overlay.

PLAY DETROIT

969 San Diego at Colorado

Neither starter has gotten off to the starts they had planned. Both come in off back to back poor performances. The Padres are 16-9 vs righties on the season with a wRC+ of 125, second best in baseball. Colorado against righties are 9-14 with a 79 wRC+. San Diego is playing the much better ball as of late, and management is doing everything it can to upgrade this roster. Nice price with the better team.

PLAY SAN DIEGO 

953 Seattle at LA Angels

Nice advantages all around for the Mariners here. Seattle comes in with a 100 wRC+ against righties, while the Angels are just an 82 wRC+ against lefties. Marco Gonzales has faced LA twice this year with game scores of 68 and 66. Jaime Barria is making his first start of the season, after posting a 6.42 ERA in 2019. He’s very prone to the long ball, allowing 41 homers in just 221.1 innings of work the past three seasons. Over the last month Seattle is just 12-18, while the Angels are only 10-20. 

PLAY SEATTLE

979 Seattle at LA Angels

Came up a bit short with our big plus money play on the Mariners last night. But we are finding value once against with this Seattle club. Over the past three seasons Seattle has a 23-22 record in this series. Dylan Bundy got off to a great start for the Angels but has faded as of late with 37 and 48 game scores. He is very prone to the long ball allowing 74 homers in just 380.2 innings of work. Hard to lay this number with a guy allowing two home runs per nine innings. Justus Sheffield was highly touted and his last three starts show why. Game scores of 71, 57 and 60 show he is finally living up to expectations. 

On the season the Angels have a 73 wRC+ vs lefties, 27% worse than league average. The Mariners are 102 vs right-handers. Great price with the visitor tonight.

PLAY SEATTLE

969 Pittsburgh at Milwaukee

Can’t understand why this line is so high. Over the last three years the Brewers have a 25-20 record in this series. On the season Milwaukee is just 5-8 at home. Against right-handed starters Milwaukee is third worst in baseball with a wRC+ of 66, 34% worse than an average MLB squad. Pittsburgh on the other hand has a 108 wRC+ vs lefties. We can see the host being a slight favorite here, but this line is completely overblown. 

PLAY PITTSBURGH

927 Seattle at Los Angeles Angels

While Andrew Heaney has pitched well against the Mariners this year , with game scores of 54 and 58. It will be the third time in a month the Mariners have seen the lefty. Heaney has only allowed two home runs this year and yet his ERA is still 5.52. The last three seasons he has given up 49 long balls in only 304.2 innings. 

Margevicius has been solid since coming over to Seattle with game scores of 56, 59 and 46. The Mariners are playing good ball right now having won 6 of 8 as of late. Looking at wRC+ vs lefties this season Seattle is at 70 and the Angels 71. No way should this line be anywhere near this high.

PLAY SEATTLE

916 Kansas City at Chicago White Sox

Danny Duffy has been very good this year, and has a nice 54 average game score against the White Sox his last five starts in this series. But the Royals are only 6-12 on the road and 10-16 vs right-handed starters. 

The Sox are a perfect 8-0 on the season vs lefties, with an unheard of wRC+ of 170. That’s 33% higher than the second ranked team in the league vs left-handed starters. The Sox are hot having won 9 of its last 10 games. Cheap number at home vs a lefty pitcher.

PLAY CHICAGO WHITE SOX

973 Pittsburgh at St Louis

While the Pirates are 0-4 on the season vs lefty starters, they actually have hit southpaws well. With a wRC+ of 125 on the year, ranking eighth in the majors. Chad Kuhl has a sparkling 2.84 ERA despite allowing four home runs in 19 innings of work. His game scores in 2020 are 63, 52 and 57. The two teams Kim has faced struggle vs lefties. Cincinnati has a 93 wRC+ and the Cubs are just an 85 wRC+. This will actually be the best offense he has faced this year believe it or not. Solid value on the dog this afternoon.

PLAY PITTSBURGH

974 LA Angels at Houston

The Astros have dominated this series winning 67% of the last 42 meetings, including 3 of 4 this year. Jose Suarez has an average game score of 34 his last seven starts. Well short of the league average of 50. in 82.1 innings of MLB work he has allowed 24 home runs! Cristian Javier has been impressive in his rookie season, with a 55 average game score. 

The Angels are 4-12 on the road and 5-16 vs right-handed starters. Houston is 7-5 vs lefties with a wRC+ of 131, 31% better than league average. The Astros are 11-4 at home.

PLAY HOUSTON

905 Chicago Cubs at Detroit

In our opinion too much credit is being given to the Tigers starter. Casey Mize has a very bright future, but young hurlers tend to struggle out of the gate. In his debut he only went 4.1 innings while allowing 3 earned runs. The talent is there but it’s very rare for rookie pitchers to enter the league fully formed. 

Alec Mills struggled last time out against the Cardinals. But his game scores before that start were 61, 72 and 52. The Cubs are 12-8 vs righties on the season, while the Tigers are 7-12 in that same category. Chicago is 5-2 on the road while Detroit is 4-9 at home. This Tiger pitching staff has allowed 67 runs its last 10 games. 

PLAY CHICAGO CUBS

904 LA Angels at Oakland

Had the A’s last night and they led wire to wire. No reason to switch sides today as the Angels are the most overrated team in the league. This will be the third time each of these starters has faced the opposition this year. Neither pitched extremely well with Bassitt posting game scores of 56 and 47, and Canning 49 and 36. So Bassitt has had the better recent success against this opponent. The Angels are 4-15 vs right-handed starters and 3-10 on the road. Oakland is 12-8 vs righties and 12-3 playing here. The Angels are 8-19 on the season while the A’s are 19-8. This is a very cheap number.

PLAY OAKLAND

976 LA Angels at Oakland

Going against the early line movement in this one as we get the clearly better team in the home dog roll. Sure Andrew Heaney has had very good success against this A’s squad, with an average game score of 62 his last five meetings. He’s fared much better against todays opponent that Mike Tiers who has a 42 average game score against the Angels. That’s a clear starting pitcher edge for Los Angeles. But looking much deeper we see that Heaney has a 4.74 ERA this season despite only allowing a single home run in 24.2 innings. Fiers on the other hand has a 5.96 ERA but has allowed 7 hame runs in just 25.2 innings. The previous two seasons the Angels lefty allowed 47 homers in 275.1 innings of work. These are two pitchers about to hit major regression. 

The road favorite Angels are just 4-14 vs right-handed starters and 3-9 this year on the road. Oakland is a perfect 6-0 vs lefties and 11-3 overall in this ballpark. The last season plus Oakland has a 17-9 record in this series. Too much value in this one to not want a piece of the home dog.

PLAY OAKLAND

924 LA Angels at San Francisco

Kevin Gausman has always had the talent, but he’s had a hard time putting it all together. But this year he has started with game scores of 47, 50, 69 and 55. More impressive is that those games were hosting the Padres, at Colorado, at the LA Dodgers and hosting Oakland. Some pretty good hitting teams in tough parks. The Angels are only 4-13 on the season vs right-handed starters, and 3-8 overall on the road. The Giants are 5-5 vs lefties compared to 5-11 vs righties. The Angels are sending out Jose Suarez who has an average game score his last seven starts of 36. This is his first start of 2020. Nice price to go against an overrated Angels squad.

PLAY SAN FRANCISCO

912 Tampa Bay at NY Yankees

As much as the public seems to like Blake Snell, his last five starts against the Yanks have averaged a 52 game score. Just slightly better than the league average game score which is 50. Tanaka on the other hand has simply owned the Rays with an average game score of 70 his last five starts against them. When looking at current form for the last seven starts overall, Snell is at 54 while Tanaka is at 51. From an offensive standpoint the Rays have a slight edge in wRC+ at 999 to 950. Rare chance to get the Yankees at home at an underdog price.

PLAY NEW YORK YANKEES

956 Washington at Atlanta

Been very impressed with Toussaint thus far with a 23 to 5 SO to BB ratio on only 17.1 innings of work. That includes his worst start last time out at the NY Yankees. He was highly thought of as a prospect, and it’s starting to look like that is translating at the Major League level. 

Anibal Sanchez just hasn’t been the same this year. He had a huge return to form a couple years ago but right now he is struggling mightily. His three starts in 2020 have game scores of 45, 29 and 26. Washington is only 2-9 on the season vs right-handed starters. This is a very fair line on the Braves tonight.

PLAY ATLANTA

964 Washington at Baltimore

Surprisingly the Orioles have won 4 of the 6 meetings the past two seasons. This is what we call a one way rivalry, as the O’s lost part of its fanbase when the Nationals arrived. The Nationals are just 2-8 on the season facing right-handed starters. Baltimore is 2-1 vs lefties and their lineup shows a much better wRC+ vs lefties. The Orioles have six players that have a double digit increase in wRC+ against lefties. Plenty of value on the home dog on Saturday.

PLAY BALTIMORE

927 San Diego at Arizona

The Diamondbacks have won 25 of the last 45 meetings, and they are catching the Padres off a huge four game series with the Dodgers. Kelly has an average game score of 56 his last five starts against the Padres. Lamet on the other hand is at 47 in his four career Arizona starts. When looking at the last seven overall starts by both hurlers, we see both with an average game score of 61. Both teams are 8-7 on the season vs righties. When comparing projected lineups we see San Diego with a 913 wRC+ and the Diamondbacks with a similar 921 wRC+. No way the host should be this size underdog here.

PLAY ARIZONA

911 Pittsburgh at Cincinnati

The Pirates were good to us yesterday, let’s look for a repeat performance. Pittsburgh is now 27-12 in this series. The last five starts between these two shows Kuhl with a 56 average game score, while Gray is at 49. Still don’t trust the Reds in this price range with a 3-10 record against right-handed starters. Similar to yesterday the Reds have a slight offensive edge, but not nearly enough to justify this price.

PLAY PITTSBURGH

959 Pittsburgh at Cincinnati

Believe it or not but the Pirates have owned Cincinnati the past few years. Now 26-12 vs the Reds. And Trevor Williams has posted an average game score of 63 his last five starts vs Cincinnati. The Reds are also 3-9 on the season vs right-handed starters. We rate the Reds starter one tier better. Offensively these lineups are an 898 wRC+ for the Pirates and 932 for the Reds. Not nearly enough edges to support a line of this size. Plenty of value on the Pirates on Thursday.

PLAY PITTSBURGH

925 Tampa Bay at Boston

The Rays are 15-8 the past two seasons against the Sox. Snell has an average game score of 64 vs Boston. His last seven starts average a 55 game score overall. He’s been on a pitch count to start the season, but we love this Tampa Bay bullpen. The Rays are 8-3 against righty starters while Boston is just 3-5 vs southpaws. Good number to fade an overrated Rex Sox squad.

PLAY TAMPA BAY

971 Arizona at Colorado

Love the starting pitcher for the Diamondbacks who we rate two tiers higher than the inconsistent Freeland. Offensively this projected lineup shows a 955 wRC+ for the visitor, with an 836 wRC+ for the host. We don’t want to fade the Rockies on a regular basis vs southpaws, but this is a weak lineup against righties.

PLAY ARIZONA

962 Chicago White Sox at Detroit

Like the two tier starting pitcher edge for the Tigers, as Alexander has been terrific out of the pen this year. Offensively the Tigers come in at a wRC+ of 923, while the Sox are at only 856. Detroit matches up very well vs lefties, while that is a major weakness for Chicago. 

PLAY DETROIT

955 Atlanta at New York Yankees

We are looking at a two tier starting pitching edge for the Yankees, although Toussaint looks to be back where he was as a prized recruit. Offensively the Braves have the slightly stronger lineup, 1081 wRC+ as opposed to 1037 for New York. The Yankees rake against lefties, but are overpriced vs right-handed starters. Nice value here on the road dog.

PLAY ATLANTA

915 Seattle at Texas

Neither of these teams were expected to do much this season. In fact, you could have had either team at 100 to 1 to win it all. The Rangers currently have a 1 1/2 game lead on the Mariners, which tells you neither team is playing much different than expected. Our numbers show Texas with a slight 853 to 836 wRC+ offensively. Although the Texas starter does rate about two tiers higher than the young Mariners starter. That said, no way this line should be this high with a very small if any home field advantage. Worth a shot in a game we have much closer to a tossup.

PLAY SEATTLE

971 Colorado at Seattle

The Rockies have won 7 of the 8 meetings with Seattle. They are also a perfect 5-0 vs left-handed starters, while Seattle is 3-9 vs righties.  Colorado has a projected offensive wRC+ of 954 compared to the 852 for the Mariners. Big edge on the mound for the Rockies as well. Worked for us yesterday, no reason to buck the trend. 

PLAY COLORADO

927 Colorado at Seattle

The Rockies have won 6 of the 7 meetings with Seattle. They are also a perfect 4-0 vs left-handed starters, while Seattle is 3-8 vs righties. The Seattle starter has faced the Rockies three times with game scores of 34, 35 and -4. We would rather back the major league debut of the Rockies starter. Colorado has a projected wRC+ of 954 compared to the 852 for the Mariners.

PLAY COLORADO

915 Toronto at Atlanta

Showing the Blue Jays to have a tier advantage in starting pitching. As well as a 966 to 920 wRC+ in this contest. Home field advantage has been very low to non-existent so far in this shortened season. Catching plus money with the Jays is a solid bet.

PLAY TORONTO

926 New York Yankees at Philadelphia

Cashed with the Phillies yesterday and see more of an edge today. We rate both starters in the same tier, although the Yankees have a very slight edge. From a hitting standpoint New York shows a powerful 1087 wRC+ but the Phillies are right behind with a 1000. Not a huge fan of this Philadelphia team coming into the season. But we can’t pass up the overlay in this contest.

PLAY PHILADELPHIA

903 San Francisco at Colorado

This line is just too high not to get a part of the Giants here. Both starters are graded in the same tier. From an offensive perspective the Giants are about league average with a 899 wRC+. The Rockies lineup is just slightly better at 954 wRC+. Colorado is being rated much too high in this betting marketplace.

PLAY SAN FRANCISCO

985 Miami at Baltimore

Wrong team favored here even with the slight pitching advantage for the O’s. This Baltimore offensive lineup is horrendous. Only one player in the lineup rates better than league average against righties, and that’s Dwight Smith at 103. As a whole Baltimore posts a 725 wRC+ while Miami comes in at 887 wRC+. Miami now has close to a league average offense after the Covid 19 situation. Look for the Marlins to come away with the road win.

PLAY MIAMI

981 Philadelphia at New York Yankees

Money has poured in on the Phillies for good reason, this Yankees lineup isn’t great. In fact, the Phillies have a 990 wRC+ while the mighty Yankees are at 942 wRC+. We also rate the Phillies starter three tiers higher than the Yankees lefty starter. Not often we fade New York at home in this price range, but they shouldn’t be favored today.

PLAY PHILADELPHIA

969 LA Dodgers at San Diego

Terrific pitching duel in the beautiful city on San Diego. We rate the Dodgers having a slight edge on the mound of one tier. From an offensive standpoint it’s all LA as we much prefer the Padres against lefties. Our wRC+ numbers have LA with a 1113 to 902 advantage. This series has been all Dodgers as LA has won 27 of the last 38 games played the past 2+ seasons. Not often that you get the best team in the National League with it’s best starter in this price range.

PLAY LOS ANGELES DODGERS

965 San Francisco at Colorado

A pair of righties on the mound today and our numbers show the Giants with a two tier advantage in that area. While both lineups are rather weak, the Giants have a 871 to 860 wRC+ advantage. When looking at history between these clubs, San Francisco and Colorado have split the past 38 meetings. This boils down to a slight edge for the visitor catching a plus money price. Sign us up.

PLAY SAN FRANCISCO

915 Pittsburgh at Chicago Cubs

Not impressed with either offense today against lefty starters. The Cubs are at 896 wRC+ while the Pirates come in at 789. Both under league average. Neither starter is impressive either as we rank the Cubs pitcher just one tier higher than the Pirates. So all our stats show the Cubs should be a favorite in the 140-150 range. Yet we are seeing the favorite posted in the 180 range. Plenty of room to sneak in a plus money win on the Pirates.

PLAY PITTSBURGH

972 LA Dodgers at Arizona

The Diamondbacks rake against lefties with a 1034 wRC+. Just slightly less than the Dodgers vs righties at 1081 wRC+. So the hitting is close to equal. We rate both starters in the same tier, so that also rates pretty even. When looking at team history these squads are 20 and 20 the past forty meetings. With Arizona getting last at bats the value is clearly on the host.

PLAY ARIZONA

973 San Diego at Colorado

Projected lineups favor the Padres 1054 wRC+ to 954 wRC+. Both teams hit lefties better than the league average of 900 wRC+. We rate the Padres starter one tier above the Rockies starting pitcher. San Diego should be favored.

PLAY SAN DIEGO

969 Seattle at LA Angeles

Despite the Angels having the better squad the past three seasons, the Mariners lead this series 21 to 19. LA is a really good hitting team vs righties, but that isn’t the case vs southpaws. LA has a 937 wRC+ vs lefties which is just slightly better than league average. Only four Angels players perform better against left-handed pitchers. And Goodwin rarely plays against them and Simmons is injured. This line is simply too high considering the lineups and the starters on the mound. Worth a nice shot here at a big plus price.

PLAY SEATTLE

924 Kansas City at Detroit

Very weak offensive lineup of 787 wRC+ for the Royals vs a lefty. Detroit sits at 899, basically league average vs the southpaw. Major pitching advantage here for the Tigers, who have a much bigger edge than the current line. Won’t back the Tigers many times this year as a favorite, but this game deserves it.

PLAY DETROIT

903 Arizona at Texas

Taking the plus money with the visitor here as this Texas lineup has a combined wRC+ of just 804 vs lefties. The Rangers have really struggled offensively in the early going, and we can’t see them lighting up this Arizona pitching staff. In what very well could be a low scoring game let’s back the NL squad.

PLAY ARIZONA

957 Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati

Much was expected from the Reds this season, but this club has struggled out of the gate. After Bauer, Castillo and Gray the Reds starting rotation really steps down in class. Cincinnati matches up really well vs lefties but steps down when facing right handed pitching.

The Cubs don’t have a clear number one starter, but this team goes five deep in the rotation. Chicago also has nine players that rate better than league average in wRC+ against righties. Good matchup for the visitor.

PLAY CHICAGO CUBS

903 Arizona at San Diego

Really like this Diamondbacks team vs lefties. Today’s lineup is showing a 1020 wRC+, as opposed to the 926 wRC+ for the Padres. We also have a two tier advantage in starting pitching. As well as the Padres All-Star closer being unavailable today.

PLAY ARIZONA

901 Los Angeles Angels at Oakland

Prefer the Angels lineup here which posts a 1065 wRC+ as opposed to the A’s 993 wRC+. We also have a three level edge with our starting pitching.

PLAY LOS ANGELES ANGELS

968 Pittsburgh at St Louis

The Pirate offense has been cold to start the season and grades out as a 859 wRC+ in this contest. After the top four batters not a single Pirate hitter rates league average. St Louis rates 967 wRC+ with this lineup, but the starting pitcher advantage for the Cards is huge. Hudson has been terrific for the host, while Keller has really struggled since his promotion. Instead of betting on his promise we can only go with what we have seen at this level, which is a fade of the Pirates young righty.

PLAY ST LOUIS

951 Miami at Philadelphia

We question the Marlins starting Sierra vs a righty, but other than that we like the Marlins chances once again today. The wRC+ is 853 compared to the Phillies 991. But we actually prefer Urena to Velasquez on the mound. A bit of money has come on the visitor and we agree.

PLAY MIAMI

911 Miami at Philadelphia

This was a good result for us yesterday, and the value is there for a repeat. The Philly offense has the big names against this no name Marlins squad. But when breaking down the wRC+ hitters on the field today the Philadelphia edge is only 45. While Zack Wheeler is a quality starter, we like Chad Smith just as well. Smith started last year on fire before tiring as the season went on. We like him to bounce back strongly this season. Too much value once again on the visitor.

PLAY MIAMI

957 Miami at Philadelphia

These two have been very competitive the past two years with the Phillies owning a 20-18 record in this series. We really like the offensive moves of the Marlins in the offseason. Against righties Miami now has a wRC+ lineup of 930, better than the league average of 900. In fact, despite all the big name talent for the Phillies, this lineup of 994 today isn't nearly as dominant as the past two seasons vs the Marlins. While Nola rates 26% better than Alcantara in ERA+, the line overcompensates. Plenty of value on an improved Marlins team in the season opener.

PLAY MIAMI

954 Detroit at Cincinnati

The Reds have a huge offensive edge in this contest. The league average team will have a wRC+ of 900, as the average player will post a 100 wRC+. The starting lineup for the Tigers here against a righty is 801, while the Reds vs a lefty with this lineup will be 1128. That's a whopping 36% better with every batter in the lineup. Cincinnati putting in Matt Davidson is a huge edge over the overnight lines as he smashes lefties to the tune of a 123 wRC+ the past three seasons. That makes only one Reds batter less than league average against lefties. From a starting pitcher standpoint we also rate the Reds to have a 25% ERA+ advantage. Despite Cincinnati being a sizable favorite, this line is simply too cheap to not back the Reds.

PLAY CINCINNATI

903 Washington at Houston

Strasburg & Verlander

Stephen Strasburg has a 1.88 ERA and 66 average game score in his last seven starts. Justin Verlander has a 3.27 ERA and a 60 average game score in his last seven starts. The last three starts by the Houston righty have resulted in five home runs. That has been the concern all season for Cole and Verlander. The opposition swings for the fences because they have been so dominant. He has allowed 36 dingers in 223 innings this season. We saw the way Washington approached Gerrit Cole yesterday, we expect more of the same today. The starters and the lineups are much closer than this line suggests. It’s inflated based on the Astros need after losing home field edge yesterday. We will take the high plus money price on the Nationals, as this line should be much shorter.

PLAY WASHINGTON

912 Houston at NY Yankees

Cole & Severino

This handicap all comes down to value because you simply cannot make a case against Gerrit Cole. He’s been as dominant as any pitcher we have followed, with his lone weakness being the long ball. He has given up 29 homers in 212.1 innings this season. Players are just coming to bat and swinging from their heels against him. That said, this line from a value standpoint is all Yankees.

The last two seasons New York in 9-7 vs the Astros. Only Tampa Bay has had similar success and they took Houston to the limit in the previous series. Luis Severino has put up game scores of 60, 70, 49 and 56 since coming back from his season long injury. The Yankees are better against right handed starters 74-42 vs 71-47. While Houston is very good on the road at 47-36, New York is 59-24 at home. 

No doubt Cole has a large edge on the mound, but Severino is capable of matching him. The Yankees in this price range at home is a bargain we haven’t seen all year.

PLAY NEW YORK YANKEES

908 NY Yankees at Houston

Paxton & Verlander

Paxton faced the Astros twice this season with game scores of 57 and 28, the latter in this ballpark. Verlander also faced the Yankees twice with game scores of 64 and 50. The key to this handicap is how well the Astros have hit lefties this season. Overall 39-11 vs southpaws and 63-22 overall at home. It’s rare we get Verlander and his 2.34 home ERA in this price range. While James Paxton has an ERA a full run higher on the road.

PLAY HOUSTON

906 Washington at St Louis

Scherzer & Wainwright

The last two seasons St Louis is a combined 10-5 vs the Nats. Mad Max has faced the Cards twice this year with game scores of 51 and 55. Adam Wainwright in his two starts against Washington this season produced game scores of 61 and 56. Over the last seven starts Scherzer has a game score average of 56, while Wainwright’s is 57. 

Both teams are very equal vs righties as the Bats are 72-53 and the Cards are 74-58. Washington is 46-39 on the road, while St Louis is 51-33 at home. 

Adam Wainwright has pitched much better at home than on the road this year. He posts a 2.56 ERA at Busch Stadium and 6.22 ERA away from home. All his advanced numbers also show he favors this mound. Surprised by this very public line as we made this game much shorter. Great value on the home dog.

PLAY ST LOUIS CARDINALS

913 Tampa Bay at Oakland

The Rays sit at 13-8 the past three seasons against the A’s. Charlie Morton faced Oakland twice this year with game scores of 78 and 65. League average once again is 50. What we really like about Morton is his ability to reduce home runs. He permitted just 15 in 194.2 innings this season. Sean Manaea has looked solid since coming back from a long IL stint. 

Tampa has a 32-25 mark against lefties this season, similar percentage to righties. But the A’s rake against lefties with a 35-14 record, but are less successful against right-handed starters at 62-51. While Oakland is a very good 52-29 at home, the Rays are among the league best on the road with a 48-33 mark.

This game looks to be a dead even contest, yet we are getting a plus price on the road underdog. Can’t pass up the veteran Morton in this price range.

PLAY TAMPA BAY

956 St Louis at Arizona

Wainwright & Young

While money has come in on the Cardinals early, the value is now on the home Diamondbacks. St Louis clinched a playoff spot with the victory over the rival Cubs yesterday. They now have a three game lead over Milwaukee with six games to go in the season. All is right in Cardinal land, so we take advantage of an overconfident bunch here. 

Wainwright is pitching his best ball of the season, but four of his last six starts came against possible playoff foes Washington and Milwaukee. Not sure that same intensity will be there against Arizona. Alex Young has stayed under the national radar but he has posted a solid 3.27 ERA in his 74.1 innings of work this year. The Diamondbacks are 7-4 in his starts this season. While the Cards are 73-52 against right-handed starters this season, they are only 16-15 vs lefties. We al know how hot St Louis has been, but Arizona has held their own at 17-13 the past month. Nice price with the home dog here who continues to play good baseball while others have thrown in the towel.

PLAY ARIZONA

954 San Diego at Milwaukee

Paddock & Woodruff

Brandon Woodruff returns from the injured list and is expected to be on a limited pitch count here. Which is all well and good as lefty Gio Gonzalez will follow him to the mound. Chris Paddock has been excellent in his last three starts, which is what is keeping this line very attractive for the host. But Paddock over his last seven starts is slightly below average with a 49 average game score. 

The Brewers are chasing the wild card game and have won 10 of 11 in its pursuit. The Padres on the other hand are just playing out the string of yet another disappointing season. With a lefty coming in early it’s tough for the Padres to set a lineup here for the full game. That means some of the starters will be in for a short stay for San Diego. Great price on a hot team at home.

PLAY MILWAUKEE

904 Washington at St Louis

Strasburg & Hudson

Big money move overnight toward the Nationals, but now the value is clearly on the host. St Louis has won 8 of 11 meetings the past two seasons. When comparing both starters the numbers are almost identical, and impressive. So really tough to make a decision based on that factor. Both clubs far equally well vs right handed starters, so that’s a wash. The Nationals are 40-35 on the road, while the Cardinals are 47-28 at home. Slight edge to St Louis. Over the last month the teams have virtually the same record, with St Louis being a game better. Recent 10 and 20 game breakdowns are saying the same thing.

So here we have a game that should be lined in the pick ‘em range, and yet the host is a sizable underdog based on early line movement. We will take the sizable value here as Dakota Hudson looks for his seventh straight game score of 58 or better.

PLAY ST LOUIS

959 San Diego at Colorado

Lucchesi & Hoffman

Joey Lucchessi has been very consistent against the Rockies. His last five starts against them has produced an average game score of 56, including 71 and 61 his last two. The Rockies have struggled vs lefties all season with a 20-34 record. 

Jeff Hoffman has a 43 game score average his last seven starts. He has really been beaten by the long ball as of late allowing seven home runs in his last 12.2 innings of work.

PLAY SAN DIEGO

951 Atlanta at Philadelphia

Teheran & Smyly

Julio Tehran has been on a terrific run. In his last six starts five have been graded out at 59 or higher. His last two on the road were 67 and 69. He’s only permitted 17 home runs in 163.1 innings of work.

Drew Smyly on the other had has really struggled with the long ball this year. He has allowed 29 in only 101.2 innings of work. In fact, the past three seasons the lefty has permitted 72 home run in 343.2 innings of work. In this ballpark that is the kiss of death.

Atlanta is an impressive 22-11 vs southpaws this season, and 44-28 overall on the road. This number is very cheap.

PLAY ATLANTA

957 St Louis at Colorado

Hudson & Senzatela

Antonio Senzatela has been a punching bag as of late. In his last seven starts he owns an average game score of 24. His ERA during that time is 14.03. He has a strikeout to walk ratio of 12 to 15. 

Dakota Hudson has been his polar opposite. The young righty has a 60 average game score and a 2.03 ERA in his last seven starts. He faced Colorado once this season and posted a 67 game score at home. He has never pitched in Coors Field, which is the only negative for the Cards.

The Rockies are 41-50 vs righties and only 35-35 at home. St Louis is 66-49 vs right handed starters, and 35-37 on the road. Over the last month Colorado has won 9 games while the Cards have won 22. St Louis has every edge we look for in a game, as we see the Rockies playing out the string.

PLAY ST LOUIS

951 Atlanta at Philadelphia

Keuchel & Eflin

Zach Eflin has faced the Braves twice this season. In 5.2 innings he has permitted 12 earned runs with a combined game score of 15. He has permitted four home runs in those 5.2 innings of work. On the season Eflin has allowed 23 long balls in 140 innings. Not a good combination pitching in this ballpark. 

Dallas Keuchel isn’t prone to home runs as a ground ball pitcher. Over the last two seasons he’s permitted 30 home runs in 295.1 innings of work. 

The Braves are 68-45 vs righties, while the Phillies are just 16-22 vs left handed starters. With Atlanta having a better road record than the Phillies do at home, we don’t mind the road favorite price.

PLAY ATLANTA

961 New York at Boston

Paxton & Rodriguez

The Yankees have dominated the Sox this season 13-5. Paxton has produced a solid 56 average game score against Boston his last five starts. Rodriguez has a 43 average game score against the Yankees his last five starts. 

Paxton is on quite a roll as of late with an average game score of 62 his last seven starts overall. Eduardo Rodriguez himself is doing quite well with a 54 average game score his last seven overall. 

But here’s the real advantage for the visitor. The Yankees are an outstanding 29-16 on the season vs lefties, while the Sox have struggled vs southpaws with a 20-26 mark. New York is 41-28 on the road, while Boston has struggled in Fenway with a 36-38 record. 

Let the 2019 dominance of the Yankees continue on Monday.

PLAY NEW YORK YANKEES

906 Washington at Atlanta

Scherzer & Soroka

Both pitchers have fared well against the opposition. Mad Max though hasn’t faced the Braves yet this season. Mike Soroka on the other hand has a 54 average game score in three starts against the Nats. While Scherzer has been good at not allowing homers, about one per nine innings the past three seasons. Soroka has only given up 11 long balls in 178.1 innings of big league work. That is simply outstanding. In a game with a total of 8.5 runs, that statistic could be the key to victory. 

Washington is 58-46 vs righties, while the Braves are 67-44 against the same. The Bats are a solid 37-34 on the road, but Atlanta has a strong 47-27 home mark. Catching the Braves at home in a plus money situation looks very favorable.

PLAY ATLANTA

956 Chicago at Milwaukee

Darvish & Gonzalez

Both pitchers have fared well against the opposition, posting average game scores of 63 for Darvish and 62 for Gonzalez. But we prefer Gio and the Brewers here, as he is much less home run prone. On the season Gonzalez has permitted 8 home runs in 67.1 innings of work. The prior two years combined for 38 home runs in 372 innings. Darvish on the other hand has allowed 31 dingers in 152.1 innings this year. Along with 34 home runs in 226.2 combined innings in 2017 and 2018. In a game in which pitching should dominate, we want no part of the homer happy Darvish.

Chicago also struggles vs lefties at 13-17 on the season, and are just 29-40 on the road this year. Look for the Brewers to shine here at a nice home price.

PLAY MILWAUKEE

915 Texas at Baltimore

Burke & Bundy

Brock Burke has been excellent in his first three starts of his Major League career. He has an average game score of 61 and he has not permitted a homer in 18 innings of work. We love backing unknown lefties the first time through the league.

Dylan Bundy on the other hand is a home run machine. He has permitted 93 long balls in 479.1 innings of work the past three seasons. He has permitted 26 in 138 innings this season.

Texas is 44-46 vs righties, while the O’s are 19-34 vs southpaws. The Rangers have a better road record than the Orioles do at home 29-44 to 22-47. 

Nice payout price here for what looks to be a solid road underdog against an undeserving favorite.

PLAY TEXAS

971 Minnesota at Boston

Perez & Eovaldi

Martin Perez hasn’t faced the Red Sox since 2017, which favors the pitcher. Boston hasn’t hit lefties all year with a 20-24 record. 

Eovaldi continues to struggle off his injury stint, and has posted a 6.23 ERA on the season. Minnesota is an outstanding 69-37 vs righties, and 47-24 on the road. 

Over the last month the Twins have posted a 19-11 record, while the Sox continue to flounder around .500 with a 16-14 mark.

PLAY MINNESOTA

969 Minnesota at Boston

Dobnak & Porcello

Randy Dobnak will get the start for the Twins tonight. He’s pitched out of the bullpen thus far. He only allowed less than half a homer a game this year in the minors, which is a concern in this ballpark. 

Rick Porcello has a 63 average game score his last five starts vs the Twins, but he allows too many long balls to gain trust against this team. Porcello has permitted 91 home runs the past three seasons, including 26 in 149.1 innings of work in 2019. Against this home run hitting lineup of the Twins, those numbers just won’t cut it. 

Minnesota is 68-37 vs righties, while the Sox are 54-39. Minnesota is 46-23 on the road while Boston is just 34-34 at home. 

PLAY MINNESOTA

907 San Diego at Arizona

Quantrill & Leake

Going against the line move here as we once again fade Mike Leake. The Arizona righty finally had an above average game for the Rays last time out. He went into San Francisco and produced a 63 game score. But his previous five game scores were 32, 43, 15, 38 and 35. With a league average number of 50, you can see how he has struggled. 

Cal Quantrill had produced game scores of 59, 57, 72, 46, 58 and 68, before struggling badly at home against the Dodgers last time out. We can forgive any pitcher who isn’t at their best against that Dodgers lineup. 

The Padres have the better record vs righties, 53-53 to 47-50. San Diego is also a very respectable 33-35 away, while the Diamondbacks are just 33-33 at home. 

We are getting great value here on a game we feel should be much closer to a coin flip contest.

PLAY SAN DIEGO

901 New York at Washington

Syndergaard & Ross

Thor has dominated the Nationals this season with game scores of 58, 71, 66 and 49. In his last six starts overall his strikeout to walk ratio was 35 to 7. But most important he is coming off his worst start of the season. A three inning, nine earned run game against the Cubs. 

Joe Ross is pitching better, but he only averages about five innings of work. Which puts this terrible bullpen in the game sooner.  After facing the likes of the Marlins and Orioles, the Nationals will step up in class for this series. We don’t think Ross and this bullpen can get it done.

PLAY NEW YORK METS

976 Seattle at Texas

Kikuchi & Martin

It’s a bullpen day for the Rangers who send out Brett Martin as the opener. Despite not having a true starter, we prefer the Texas bullpen over Yusei Kikuchi. He had an outstanding game against Toronto two weeks ago. But beyond that the lefty has been a major disappointment. He enters this game with a 6.32 ERA in his last seven starts, along with a 43 average game score. But what really is the kicker is his home run rate. On the season his has permitted 33 homers in only 139.1 innings of work. Pitching in the heat and humidity of Texas isn’t the way to avoid the long ball. 

Seattle is just 15-29 vs lefties, while the Rangers are 24-25 against southpaws. 

PLAY TEXAS

963 Cleveland at Detroit

Civale & Zimmerman

The Indians are 39-13 the past three seasons against the Tigers, including 13-1 this season. The Tribe is 51-38 vs righties while the Tigers are 29-72 vs the same. Cleveland has a 36-28 record on the road while Detroit is just 17-44 at home. The Indians are 17-13 the past month while Detroit is 9-21.

Aaron Civale has an outstanding 1.82 ERA and an average game score of 62. He’s pitched 29.2 innings without giving up a home run.

His mound counterpart is Jordan Zimmerman who comes in with a 6.48 ERA and a 44 average game score his last seven starts. The past three seasons Zim has allowed 69 home runs in 373.1 innings of work. What really puts the Tribe over the top is how it has performed against Zimmerman. In five starts the past three years Zimmerman has an average game score of 34, an ERA of 10.69 and has lasted just 16 innings. He has allowed 6 home runs and produced just 4 strikeouts. This is a terrific pitching advantage for the Indians.

PLAY CLEVELAND

921 Texas at Los Angeles Angels

Minor & Heaney

Andrew Heaney has been red hot his last three starts with game scores of 84, 63 and 54. But overall he has posted an average of 56 his last seven outings. His last start was against these Rangers just a week ago and he went eight innings allowing just a single run. His strikeout to walk ratio was 14 to 0. It was an outstanding start, but with the loss fresh in the Rangers minds, we can see some major regression here. We still expect Heaney to be good, but this line is way too high.

Mike Minor has an average game score of 56 his last five against the Angels. That includes a bad 28 just six days ago. His regression is expected to be a positive one. Minor’s last four road starts produced game scores of 84, 69, 42 and 56. 

The Angels are just 17-28 on the season vs lefties, and only 33-31 at home this season. Over the last month Los Angeles has posted a 9-21 record, and 3-7 in its last ten contests. No way should the Angels be a favorite in this price range.

PLAY TEXAS

915 Minnesota at Chicago White Sox

Pineda & Giolito

The past three seasons the Twins have won 32 of 49 in this series, including 8 of 13 this season. Giolito has an average game score of 52 in his last five starts against Minnesota. But his last start just six days ago was a memorable one. He pitched a complete game shutout allowing only three hits. His strikeout to walk ratio was 12 to 0 and he had a 93 game score. But that outing is fresh in the minds of the Twins who previously put up seven runs in 10 innings against him earlier in the year. Pitchers who have extreme game scores and then face the same team tend to face major regression. 

Michael Pineda has an average game score of 57 against the White Sox in his last five starts against them. More impressively he has posted 53, 61 and 67 numbers against them this season. 

The Twins are 63-37 vs righties while the Sox are just 35-51. Minnesota is a very good road team with a 40-22 mark, while Chicago has struggled at home 33-32 on the year. 

PLAY MINNESOTA

954 Pittsburgh at Philadelphia

Musgrove & Vargas

The Phillies are 8-2 vs their cross state rivals the past two seasons. Jason Vargas has a 54 average game score in his last seven starts. Joe Musgrove is at 46 his last seven, but he did have an excellent 72 game score in his only start vs the Phillies this year. 

The Pirates are a weak 12-22 on the year vs left-handed starters. The Phillies are 52-43 vs righties. The visitor is 26-38 on the road this year, while Philadelphia is 38-28 at home. 

The Pirates broke out of a hitting slump in a big way the last two games hosting the Reds. But this team had scored just 13 combined runs the previous eight games. Now on the road vs a lefty we expect the Pittsburgh bats to go silent once again. 

PLAY PHILADELPHIA

959 Atlanta at New York Mets

Fried & Wheeler

The Braves have dominated this series the past two seasons winning 22 of 33 meetings. Wheeler has been hit hard his last two starts against the Braves, with game scores of 23 and 36. The Mets are also just 13-17 on the season vs lefties.

Atlanta is 39-25 on the road and 58-42 vs right handed starters. Max Fried has an average game score of 52 his last five against the Mets.

PLAY ATLANTA

905 Washington at Pittsburgh

Corbin & Musgrove

Late comeback win last night for the Bucs, but it had to use its best relievers in the process. Patrick Corbin goes six innings consistently for the Nets, but Joe Musgrove has been very inconsistent for the host. Since April 27th Musgrove has struggled to put up back to back good starts. When pitching above a 50 game score he has come back with outputs of 21, 54, 24, 51, 21, 59, 61, 54, 40, 32, and 13. His last outing was an outstanding 71 against the Cubs, so we will very likely see regression here. 

Washington is a solid 53-41 vs righties this season, while the Pirates are just 11-21 vs left handed starters. The Nationals are also a quality 32-30 on the road, while the Bucs have a poor 25-35 home record. 

PLAY WASHINGTON