908 Colorado at Arizona

Gonzalez & Gallen

Sizable pitching mismatch in Arizona tonight. Chi Chi Gonzalez will be making his first ever start against this Arizona team, who have scored 6 or more runs in 6 of its last 7 games. Gonzalez in his last seven starts has failed to surpass the league average game score of 50. In fact, his average game score is just 40. 

Zac Gallen just pitched in Colorado for the first time and survived, which isn’t bad for a rookie starter. Now catching them a week later we expect the young righty to prosper. The Rockies are just 24-38 on the road this season. Can’t see them having much success tonight.

PLAY ARIZONA

911 Seattle at Tampa Bay

Gonzales & McKay

Seattle has won 11 of the last 16 meetings in this series. Gonzales has faced the Rays three times in the past two years with game scores of 58, 63 and 64. Over his last seven games overall he has an average game score of 53. Brandon McKay on the other hand is at a 49 average his past seven starts. 

Seattle has won 4 of 6 to start this road trip. The Mariners are showing plenty of value tonight.

PLAY  SEATTLE

967 Cleveland at New York

Clevinger & Sabathia

CC and his home run trouble return for the IL to face his former team. Sabathia has permitted 24 home runs in only 90 innings of work this year, just shy of 2 1/2 homers per nine innings. He simply doesn’t have the stuff of his younger years, and facing this homer happy Indians offense isn’t the cure. 

Clevinger is coming off a 30 game score in his last outing against Boston. Before that he has pitched six straight starts of 59 or better game scores. Nice value on the Tribe here who are 10-10 vs the Yankees the past three seasons.

PLAY CLEVELAND

980 New York at Kansas City

Syndergaard & Montgomery

Mike Montgomery disliked his role as a long reliever for the Cubs, and was very excited to get the chance to start with the Royals. It’s worked out very well thus far with 81 and 47 game scores since the trade. Normally not a big strikeout pitcher he has a 19 to 1 SO to BB ratio since the trade. The Royals really wanted him and it looks like we may be on to something as KC seems to have tweaked his delivery.

The Mets are only 13-16 on the season vs left-handed starters. They are also off huge back to back series’ vs the Nationals and Braves. We see a letdown here.

PLAY KANSAS CITY

908 New York at Atlanta

Stroman & Teheran

The Braves were good to us last night, and this matchup brings us back tonight. Julio Teheran has been very comfortable in the new Braves ballpark. His game scores at home this year are 48, 64, 62, 66, 22, 59, 62, 63, 58, 60 and 55. The only outlier of 22 was against the Mets the last time he faced them at home. With the win yesterday Atlanta is now 21-10 the last two seasons against New York. 

Marcus Stroman pitched really well in hopes of being traded with game scores of 68 and 70 before being dealt. But since the move to the big city his numbers have been 38 and 44. New York is only 27-38 on the road and just put its best hitter on the injured list. Since McNeil went down the Mets have lost all three games it played. 

PLAY ATLANTA

960 New York at Atlanta

Matz & Keuchen

Major home/road splits from these two. Matz on the road this season has produced game scores of 32, 57, 45, 13, 33, 39, 59, 47, 41, 13, 63 and 51. Dallas Keuchel on the other hand has been solid at home with game score numbers of 60, 68, 63 and 60. 

The Mets are 13-15 on the season vs lefties, while the Braves are 17-10 against southpaws. Atlanta has won 20 of 30 meetings in this series the past two seasons. New York is 27-37 on the road this year while the Braves are 33-25 at home. 

PLAY ATLANTA

916 Boston at Cleveland

Sale & Clevenger

The last two seasons Cleveland has a 7-4 edge over the defending champs. Chris Sale even at his best has long struggled against this Cleveland franchise. His last four starts against the Tribe have resulted in game scores of 49, 19, 27 and 25. His last five starts have produced an ERA of 9.97 with a 28 to 10 SO to BB ratio. Keep in mind despite his down season his SO to BB ratio on the year is 206 to 35. Needless to say he just hasn’t been himself against the Indians. 

Mike Clevenger is averaging a 66 game score in his last seven starts. In his home starts this year his game scores have been 67, 67, 59, 74 and 84. The Indians are 22-8 over the last 30 days while the Sox are 12-17. Cleveland is 25-12 on the season vs southpaws.

PLAY CLEVELAND

963 Arizona at Los Angeles

Young & Maeda

Hard to believe with just how dominant the LA has been. But win last nights victory by Arizona, the Diamondbacks are now 27-24 the past three seasons against the Dodgers. 

Kenta Maeda started the year strong but he has struggled as of late His last three game scores have been 31, 29 and 48. His last five starts against Arizona have produced an average game score of 47. Considering league average is 50, you can tell he’s underperformed on a regular basis.

Alex Young is a lefty that has never faced LA, which is something that we look for in our handicapping. In his last seven starts his average game score is 59. 

As good as the Dodgers are against righties 54-27, the team is less successful when facing southpaws 23-14. With a 17 game division lead the Dodgers have the ability to rotate starters, which gives us more value for the 59-57 Diamondbacks who are still fighting for a wild card spot.

PLAY ARIZONA

915 Chicago at Detroit

Nova & Alexander

The White Sox have been much better against lefties this year with a 21-17 record. Detroit vs right handed starters just 24-64. Chicago has a better road record than the Tigers do at home. 

Tyler Alexander faced the White Sox five weeks ago and fared well with a 53 game score. But his last two starts overall rated 39 and 37. 

Ivan Nova has been on a nice run as of late with game scores of 53, 69 and 80. He faced the Tigers in mid-April with a poor 30 game score, but his previous two graded out at 75 and 48. 

The Tigers are a terrible 14-38 at home this year, and we know Ivan Nova has had this game circled since early in the season. The price is more than fare on the better team. 

PLAY CHICAGO WHITE SOX

956 Philadelphia at Arizona

Arrieta & Leake

Heading into last night the Diamondbacks were 12-4 the past three seasons in this series. Mike Leake heads to the NL after the trade from Seattle. In his last five starts against the Phillies he owns a 60 average game score. In his last seven starts overall he has an excellent 31 to 3 SO to BB ratio. 

Jake Arrieta has an average game score of 43 his last seven starts. And he has done so allowing just four home runs in those games. Plenty of value on the host here.

PLAY ARIZONA

910 Washington at San Francisco

Feede & Samardzija

Don’t look now but Jeff Samardzija is pitching better than he has in years. In his last six starts his game scores have been 70, 63, 46, 66, 71 and 68. Four of those six starts were on the road. Including hitters parks in Philadelphia and Colorado. That’s impressive for anyone, and because it’s from what many considered a journeyman, it’s not being discussed in the national media. Previous to this run he had a 2.5 to 1 SO to BB rate. In his last seven starts it’s over 4 to 1. 

His opponent tonight is Erick Fedde who in his last seven starts has a SO to BB rate of 18 to 17. His average game score is 42. He is coming off a 7 game score hosting Atlanta. 

The Bats were red hot earlier to get back into playoff contention, but are only 3-7 as of late. 

PLAY SAN FRANCISCO

932 St Louis at Oakland

Hudson & Fiers

The Cardinals were one of the hottest teams in the league until it started to run into good baseball teams. Teams with a winning record. Against the Cubs and Astros the Cards suddenly lost 4 of 6. Now the team travels to Oakland and takes on an A’s squad which is 20-10 over the last month.

Mike Fiers is considered a journeyman by most MLB fans, but he has been extremely good the past two seasons. 21-11 combined with ERA’s of 3.54 this year and 3.56 a year ago. In his last seven starts his average game score has been 59 with a 1.94 ERA. He’s not a big strikeout pitcher which doesn’t hurt him in this ballpark. 

Dakota Hudson has solid numbers on the season, but he has struggled with control as of late. His last three game scores were 29, 51 and 44. His last four on the road were 51, 44, 46 and 30. Nice value on the host here.

PLAY OAKLAND

952 Milwaukee at Chicago

Davies & Quintana

That season long regression we have been waiting on from Zach Davies is starting to show. He is off 24 and 29 game scores, and his SO to BB rate is 8 to 7 his last three starts. 

The Cubs are now 36-18 at home this season, and just dropped 2 of 3 in Milwaukee last weekend. 

We look for Chicago to get its bats rolling this afternoon against an overrated starter.

PLAY CHICAGO CUBS              

904 Chicago at St Louis

Lester & Flaherty

The host has now won 10 of 11 in this series, as the Cubs finally came through as a visitor yesterday. 

Jack Flaherty is pitching very well as of late with game scores of 66, 56, 72 and 74. His SO to BB ratio in those games is 30 to 7. 

The Cubs have a distinct home/road dichotomy. 36-18 at Wrigley and just 21-32 on the road. Cheap number for the host here.

PLAY ST LOUIS              

911 Houston at Cleveland

Verlander & Bieber

Hard to believe but the Indians have not faced Justin Verlander since 2017. When in Detroit the Tribe faced him on a regular basis, but after switching divisions Cleveland has been very lucky not to have faced the future Hall of Famer. 

The Astros are quite the step up in class for the Indians who just faced Kansas City, Toronto, Kansas City and Detroit the last 14 games. Cleveland was 11-3 in those contests. The only winning team the Indians faced before that was the Minnesota Twins, and the Tribe lost 2 of 3 to the division leader. Before than the Tribe faced Cincinnati, Kansas City, Baltimore, Kansas City and Detroit. In those 14 games Cleveland had another 11-3 record. So against teams with losing records the Tribe has posted a recent 22-6 mark, against teams with a winning record 1-2. 

As opposed to the Indians, Houston has played 20 straight games against teams with a winning record, coming away with a 13-7 mark. 

The Tribe just isn’t ready to step up in class tonight.

PLAY HOUSTON                                         

907 Pittsburgh at NY Mets

Agrazal & Wheeler

Dario Agrazal has been a nice surprise since joining the Pittsburgh rotation. In five starts he has an average game score of 55. Each of his last four starts have been well above the 50 league average. He’s not a big strikeout guy, so many advanced stats models will downgrade him. But he keeps the ball in the yard allowing just three home runs in 28 innings.

Zack Wheeler has the more well known name, but over his last seven starts he has been just average with a 50 game score. 

The Pirates have the better record vs righties 37-41 as opposed to 35-41. Pittsburgh is coming off a terrible home stand with a 1-7 mark against the Cards and Phillies. It will be good for the Pittsburgh players to get away from home. This line is way too high based on everything we value in the stats.

PLAY PITTSBURGH

902 Colorado at Cincinnati

Marquez & Castillo

Over his last seven starts German Marquez is averaging a 42 game score. League average is 50. He is coming off a strong 66 at the Yankees of all places, but his previous four starts were all well below league average. 

Luis Castillo has been extremely consistent. Over his last seven starts he has produced a 53 or higher in six of them. His last four at home have been 61, 85, 70 and 61. That was against the likes of the Cardinals, Brewers, Cubs and Astros. Very impressive indeed.

The Colorado bullpen threw 76 pitches yesterday while the Reds had the day off. Let’s back the host in this reasonably priced game.

PLAY CINCINNATI

915 Texas at Seattle

Minor & Leake

Better call a plumber it’s the Minor Leake matchup! Not as funny as the Kevin Brown, Ben Sheets matchup, but after the disaster that was yesterday any levity is needed. 

Seattle is 8-21 on the season vs lefties and Mike Minor has produced game scores of 62 and 79 this year against the Mariners.

Mike Leake is off a near perfect game last time out, but he has struggled mightily vs the Rangers. His last three Texas starts produced game scores of 20, 22 and 30. We can fade him here at a reasonable price after than outstanding outing five days ago.

PLAY TEXAS

976 Miami at Chicago White Sox

Smith & Covey

What looks like a complete pitching mismatch on the surface, looks completely different when digging in to the numbers. Caleb Smith is a highly thought of lefty and he has a bright future. But he’s really struggled with consistency. In his last seven starts he has produced poor performances of 28 and 39 game scores. Overall during that time his average game score is 50, also league average. 

Dylan Covey has gotten bombed when taking to the road, but at home this season he has produced game scores of 56, 58 and 45. 

The White Sox are 17-16 on the season vs lefties, while the Marlins are just 25-46 vs righties. 

PLAY CHICAGO WHITE SOX

952 St Louis at Pittsburgh

Hudson & Archer

Dakota Hudson has faced the Pirates just once, it was at home in Busch and he had a 42 game score. He’s really struggled on the road as of late with game scores of 44, 46, 30 and 44. 

Chris Archer has already faced the Cards twice this season with game scores of 56 and 68. In his last five against St Louis his average game score has been 57. Despite his overall troubles since coming to Pittsburgh, he’s had the Cardinals number. 

PLAY PITTSBURGH

902 San Diego at Chicago Cubs

Lucchesi & Quintana

Padres scored five yesterday and still came up short. San Diego has managed more than five runs just once its last ten games. In that contest the Padres lost to the Marlins 12-7. 

Jose Quintana has been very good in his career vs the Padres with an average game score of 61. 

Unlike the Pads, the Cubs have hit the ball solidly as of late. Scoring 5.8 runs per game its last ten. 

Let’s back the host here with the red hot Cubs, now on an 8-2 run.

PLAY CHICAGO CUBS

964 NY Mets at San Francisco

deGrom & Beede

Despite having ERA’s of 3.21, 1.70 and 3.53 the past three seasons, deGrom has a 30-26 record. Amazing how little run support he gets. 

San Francisco is 37-32 vs righties, while the Mats are just 33-39.

Tyler Beede has been adjusting his pics assortment as of late and it’s paying off big time. His last three starts have produced game scores of 55, 69 and 52. 

San Francisco has won 9 of 10 as of late, and that was against the offenses of St Louis, Milwaukee, Colorado and these Mets. Look for the Giants to pull this out in another low scoring affair.

PLAY SAN FRANCISCO

952 San Diego at Chicago Cubs

Lauer & Lester

Very tough scheduling spot for the Padres who are playing in a different city for the fifth time in eleven days. Since Sunday it played in San Diego, traveled all the way to Miami, and now all the way to Chicago. 

Lester has an average of 51 game score his last five against the Padres. He’s also only had one home start all season grading below a 48. 

Lauer has only faced the Cubs once, but it didn’t go very well with a 28 game score and a 22.50 ERA. 

This is the third straight home series for Chicago, while the Padres are still trying to get their travel bearings. This early start is a major advantage for the host.

PLAY CHICAGO CUBS

912 NY Mets at San Francisco

Syndergaard & Bumgarner

Both teams come in here on a nice run with the Mets winning four straight and the Giants 8 of 9. The Mets pitching has allowed just 10 runs in those four games but it faced the Marlins and the Twins. Minnesota is really struggling offensively right now as the regression has really taken hold. The Giants just played at Colorado and Milwaukee, two great hitting ballparks, but the pitching allowed just 30 total runs in those seven games. 

The Giants are 36-32 vs righties this season and this will be the fourth time in two years it has faced Syndergaard. Considering the teams only play 6 or 7 times a year that’s a lot. We prefer the consistency of Mad Bum here as he’s had 6 of 7 starts at a 46 game score or higher. His last five against the Mets averaged 65. Thor on the other hand has posted game scores of 45, 45 and 37 before his excellent 68 last start out at Miami.

PLAY SAN FRANCISCO

979 Arizona at Texas

Ray & Chavez

Despite a 50-45 overall record the Rangers are just 14-18 on the season vs lefties. Jesse Chavez pitched just 95.1 innings a year ago, and he’s thrown 22.2 in the last three weeks. His last two starts resulted in game scores of 29 and 40. He may be tiring a bit after being a reliever for most of the season. 

Robbie Ray has produced game scores of 71, 67, 36, 59 and 56 his last five outings. Four of those way above the league average. In his last seven starts he has permitted just 28 total hits. 

PLAY ARIZONA

958 Pittsburgh at St Louis

Musgrove & Mikolas

The Pirates have played ten straight games against the potent offenses of the Cubs and Brewers. They have lost 5 of 7 heading into this series. Pittsburgh swept the three game series the last time they were in St Louis. 

Musgrove has really struggled as of late in this matchup, allowing 17 earned runs in his last 15 innings vs the Cardinals. All three of those starts were in this building. 

Mikolas has posted game scores of 69, 69, 47 and 55 hosting the Reds. 

PLAY ST LOUIS

954 Cincinnati at Chicago Cubs

Castillo & Hendricks

The Reds are 30-37 on the season vs right handed starters, the Cubs vs righties 43-33. Cincinnati is 18-27 on the road with the Cubs being 32-16 at home.

This is the third time Chicago has faced Castillo this year, and he has an average game grade of 52 his last five starts vs the Cubs.

Hendricks is also facing the Reds for his third time this season with an average game score of 61 his last five vs Cincinnati.

Cincinnati is coming off a series in Colorado, which normally is taking, but the pitching staff allowed 19 runs the past two days. Look for the Reds bullpen to be limited tonight.

PLAY CHICAGO CUBS

913 Atlanta at San Diego

Soroka & Quantrill

PLAY ATLANTA

922 Detroit at Kansas City

Zimmerman & Bailey

PLAY KANSAS CITY

977 Houston at Texas

Miley & Minor

Astros have pounded lefties all season with a 21-6 record. This is the third time this season Houston has faced Minor. After being shutout the first meeting through seven innings, the Astros got to the Texas lefty for three earned runs in five innings last time out. We expect that offensive success to continue. 

Wade Miley has game scores of 65 and 55 his last two meetings with the Rangers. He has a 57 game score average in his last seven starts overall. We look for the Astros to rebound after losing the first two games of this series.

PLAY HOUSTON

975 Cleveland at Cincinnati

Bauer & Mahle

In the last three seasons Bauer has faced the Reds three times total. In those starts he has produced game scores of 64, 84 and 56. He posted a 35 game score his last outing against the Royals. On the season he has been excellent after a poor performance. Game scores of 65, 76, 49, 59 and 75 after a performance worse than league average. On a five game winning streak overall for the Tribe we look for that success to continue.

PLAY CLEVELAND

917 NY Yankees at Tampa Bay

Sabathia & Snell

The Yankees continued their dominance of the Rays this year with another extra inning winning affair. NY is 9-2 vs Tampa this season with all but one victory coming by three runs or more. 

CC Sabathia is in his farewell season and he will be honored at the All-Star Game. In his last four starts against the Rays CC has put up game score numbers of 66, 58, 51 and 70. In his last five against Tampa Bay he owns a 1.65 ERA. 

Blake Snell was outstanding his last outing vs Texas, but his three previous starts showed game scores of 13, 19 and 35. Last year he caught all the breaks in winning the Cy Young with a 1.89 ERA. This year those breaks has been going against him. He has an 8.28 ERA in his last seven starts. Has he completely turned around his season with that last start against Texas? Too early to tell by our numbers, but his name still brings out the public bettors. Plenty of value with the road dog Yanks here.

PLAY NEW YORK YANKEES

973 Oakland at Seattle

Anderson & Kikuchi

Rare lefty vs lefty matchup here. The A’s are 16-7 on the season vs southpaws, while the Mariners are just 8-17. Brett Anderson has faced Seattle five times the past two seasons with an average game score of 52. Kikuchi is facing Oakland for the fourth time already this season, with an average game score of 42. In Yusei’s last seven starts overall his average game score is a pathetic 31. 

PLAY OAKLAND

957 Colorado at Arizona

Senzatela & Greinke

The Rockies are 26-25 vs righties and 20-23 overall on the road. Arizona is 28-32 vs righties and 17-22 at home. Colorado has won 8 of 10 meetings this year and 19 of 29 the past two seasons. Antonio Senzatela has been terrific his last three starts against the D Backs. Allowing just 4 earned runs in 19.2 innings of work. Grienke’s last three home starts had game scores of 47, 37 and 33. Plenty of value here on the dog.

PLAY COLORADO

966 Boston at Detroit

Rodriguez & Soto

As dominant as the Red Sox have been the past three seasons they are just 9-8 in this series. While the Tigers are a terrible 22-46 vs right handed starters, they are a respectable 6-8 vs lefties. Boston is 4-6 its last ten games overall and have permitted 78 runs in that spam. No way this team deserves to be a favorite of this size.

PLAY DETROIT

963 Baltimore at Toronto

Bundy & Sachez

Yes the Orioles are a terrible 14-30 on the road, but the Jays are just as bad at home with a 17-28 mark. The Orioles are 16-37 vs righties and Toronto is 19-37 vs right handed starters.

Bundy hasn’t been great but he’s head and shoulders better than Sanchez. Hard to believe but Aaron Sanchez has an average game score of 28 in his last seven starts. League average is 50.

PLAY BALTIMORE

910 San Diego at LA Dodgers

Lamet & Ryu

PLAY LA DODGERS

914 Detroit at Chicago White Sox

Boyd & Lopez

The White Sox are 15-11 on the season against left-handed starters. Matthew Boyd has struggled as of late on the road against weak hitting clubs like Cleveland and Kansas City. 

Reynaldo Lopez isn’t a highly rated starter, but he has fared well against these Tigers. In his last five starts against Detroit he has an average game score of 60. In his last four he has produced 77, 56, 71 and 57. Well above league average numbers. 

PLAY CHICAGO WHITE SOX

922 Cleveland at Kansas City

Bauer & Junis

Trevor Bauer had a 75 game score in his only start against the Royals this year. In his last seven starts his average game score has been 60. That start against Kansas City was just a week ago, and you would think the Royals would make some adjustments. After all Bauer has put up game scores of 25 and 39 in two of his last five starts against Kansas City. 

Jake Junis has a 50 average game score his last seven. His strikeout to walk ratio is a solid 41 to 13. The Tribe dominated the Royals each of the last two seasons, but KC owns a 4-2 mark this year. The Royals are on a 5-2 home run against these Indians. This number is just too high, especially when you consider the putrid Orioles pitching staff held the Tribe to two total runs in a three game series this past weekend. Worth a chance to take the big number with the underdog Royals.

PLAY KANSAS CITY

917 LA Angels at Texas

Suarez & Minor

We don’t want to come off insensitive after the tragic death of Tyler Skaggs yesterday. If you are anything like me, the loss of someone you admired had to affect you in some way. And if you and I can feel that way, the players reactions will be even more affected. 

Every year or so something like this happens in one sport or another. And the team that was affected most, plays in honor of its fallen teammate. 

While the numbers are correct that Mike Minor and the Rangers should be favored tonight. You can throw out all the analytics because this game is unlike any other. We expect the underdog Angels to rise to the occasion and honor their brother. And because of the situation, it wouldn’t be beyond reason to think the Rangers wouldn’t have the same energy as usual.

PLAY LOS ANGELES ANGELS

908 Philadelphia at Atlanta

Nola & Keuchel

Aaron Nola has been better as of late, but those starts were at home. On the season away from home Nola has produced game scores of 33, 30, 50, 68, 47 and 25. Just one game better than league average. 

As expected Dallas Keuchel is dealing with a bit of rust after sitting out close to half the season. While his game scores were 40 and 40, keep in mind he was on the road against the Cubs and Nationals, two very good hitting teams. 

The Phillies are only 9-13 on the year vs left-handed pitchers. They are also 17-23 away from home. Atlanta is 37-29 vs righties and 24-17 at home. The Braves return home off a long road trip but had yesterday off. We prefer the home team in this one.

PLAY ATLANTA

912 St Louis at San Diego

Mikolas & Lucchesi

Mike Mikolas broke out in a big way last year but has regressed in 2019. He has been especially bad on the road with game scores of 34, 44, 10, 57, 41, 41 and 39. Just one game better than league average on the season. 

The opposite is true of Joey Lucchesi who has been dominant in Petco Park. His home game scores on the season are 73, 45, 69, 65, 45, 61, 45, 64 and 67. His worst home game score on the season is better than all but one road game score for Mikolas. 

Despite the Cardinals having by far the better record over the past three seasons, San Diego is 11-8 in this series. 

PLAY SAN DIEGO

905 Pittsburgh at Milwaukee

Brault & Davies

The Brewers are a solid 34-25 vs right handed starters, but just 10-14 vs lefties. Over the past seven starts for each pitcher Brault has an average game score of 49 while Davies sits at 41. It’s clear that Zach Davies has come back down to normal after an outstanding start to the season. In his last three home starts he has produced game scores of 32, 43 and 24. 

The last three seasons the Pirates own the series 24 to 23, so despite the Brewers being the better team Pittsburgh has held its own. 

The Brewers are not hitting right now, scoring just 14 combined runs its last five games. On the other hand the Pirates have reached double digits in three of its last six contests.

PLAY PITTSBURGH

919 Kansas City at Toronto

Keller & Sanchez

Despite 6 of 7 starts being on the road Brad Keller owns an average game score of 53 during that time frame. His strikeout to walk ratio is a solid 30 to 11. 

Aaron Sanchez on the other hand continues to struggle. A 34 average game score his last seven starts with a 19 to 19 strikeout to walk ratio. None of his last six starts produced higher than a 42 game score. Keep in mind league average is 50. 

Toronto is a somewhat respectable 13-17 vs left handed starts, but only 18-35 vs righties. The Blue Jays are also ten games under .500 playing at home. There is no way the Jays should be favored by this type of margin this afternoon.

PLAY KANSAS CITY

977 Oakland at LA Angels

Anderson & Skaggs

Nice value on the underdog here as Brett Anderson has only had one bad outing on the road this season. In his other road starts he has put up game scores of 54, 49, 55, 48, 62, 59 and 55. Consistently solid away from Oakland. In his last five starts against the Angels his average game score was 56. LA is only 11-18 vs left handed starters, but 31-23 vs righties. 

Oakland on the other hand is 14-7 vs lefties as opposed to 30-32 vs righties. Lefty Tyler Skaggs has been good as of late with a 55 average game score his last seven. But in his last five starts against the A’s he is averaging just a 38, never lasting more than 4.2 innings in any outing. 

PLAY OAKLAND

927 Washington at Detroit

Sanchez & Norris

Usually you can find value betting on a team on a losing streak, when facing a team playing well. But that’s not the case at all in this one, as we see value in the road favorite. 

The Tigers are 11-27 at home on the season. In the last 10 games Detroit has scored a total of 28 runs. In the last five home games the Tigers have scored 1, 1, 3, 0 and 2 runs. 

Anibal Sanchez isn’t lights out like he was last year, but he’s been very consistent. His last seven starts show an average game score of 56. Every offense he faced in that time frame is much better than this Tiger scoring unit. While the Tigers have averaged 2.8 runs its last ten, the Nationals are averaging 6.7. Cheap number to lay with the Pats.

PLAY WASHINGTON

959 Arizona at San Francisco

Young & Beede

Lefty Alex Young is making his MLB debut tonight for the Diamondbacks. One of our favorite handicapping angles is to play on unknown lefty staters the first time through the league. San Francisco is only 8-16 on the season vs left handed starting pitching. The Giants are just 16-23 at home overall on the season. Arizona on the other hand is a sparking 24-19 on the road. 

Tyler Beede has a 40 average game score his last seven starts, which is 10 less than an average MLB starter. In two starts against these D’Backs his game score average is also 40. He faced Arizona just five days ago and gave up four earned runs in four innings of action.  In two starts he has a strikeout to walk ratio of 6 to 8. While we always expect a bounce back from a pitcher that was pounded in a recent start, not sure the Giants can put enough runs on the board to matter.

PLAY ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS

960 Colorado at San Francisco

Gonzalez & Bumgarner

Rarely will you ever see a starting pitching mismatch of this magnitude in this price range. Our numbers show Bumgarner with a 54% advantage in starting pitching.Mad Bum has a league average 50 game score his last seven starts and a 51 average game score his last five vs Colorado. His last two facing the Rockies here resulted in 64 and 63 game scores. 

Chi Chi Gonzalez hasn’t pitched in the majors since 2016. In 2015 & 16 he had a 37 to 41 strikeout to walk ratio. His last seven starts dating back to that time shows an average game score of 37. That was from his days with the Rangers. 

While the number seems high based on the records of both squads, it’s high for a reason. The Giants should dominate offensively tonight.

PLAY SAN FRANCISCO

905 LA Dodgers at Arizona

Kershaw & Greinke

The first thing you think about in this matchup is two future hall of fame starters. But a closer look shows the LA offense could be very live here. The Dodgers are 37-16 on the season vs righty starters. Over the last six games LA has scored 42 runs. Covering the latest seven games for Arizona the D’Backs have allowed 55 runs. 

Greinke is averaging a 50 game score in his last five starts vs the Dodgers. Kershaw on the other hand is averaging a 63 vs Arizona. 

Kershaw has posted road game scores of 60, 60, 53 and 63 this season. Greinke has struggled as of late at home with scores of 37 and 33 his last two times out. We lay the cheap price with the best team in the National League.

PLAY LOS ANGELES DODGERS

969 Houston at NY Yankees

Verlander & Happ

Justin Verlander has been very good after a subpar performance by his standards. After a 60 game score or less he has posted 72, 81 and 75 scores the next outing. The Astros are 16-6 on the season vs lefty starters. Getting plenty of value here with our team dropping seven straight, with the Yankees winning eight straight. 

Happy is a league average pitcher his last seven outings and his average game score against the Astros is only 45. Verlander on the other hand is averaging 70 his last seven outings and 60 his last five vs the Bronx Bombers. 

The public will look at this game and bet the hot team vs the cold team, especially with the Yanks installed as a home dog. We totally disagree with that public thought process.

PLAY HOUSTON

907 Cincinnati at Milwaukee

Castillo & Chacin

Luis Castillo has been tremendous on the road this season. His game scores have been 64, 68, 31, 74, 60, 68 and 53. The lone bad game came here against the Brewers. But in his last five starts against Milwaukee he had produced game scores of 80, 53, 52 and 76 before that May collapse. We expect him to rebound nicely against a team he had pitched very well against in the past. 

Chacin in his last four starts shows game scores of 48, 16, 40 and 41. He’s not exactly excelled this year with a 51 to 32 strikeout to walk rate, and a 5.60 ERA. 

The Reds have won six straight games overall, while Milwaukee has dropped five straight. If we take in the extra inning and 1 run game records, he show Cincinnati to have the better record when factoring out the luck factor. Better team on a hot streak as a dog? Yeah we will bite.

PLAY CINCINNATI

956 Atlanta at Washington

Keuchel & Strasburg

Finally the day has come where Dallas Keuchel gets a major league start this season. You know after all this time he will be extra fired up to take the mound. But that works against him as he likely will try to do more than usual, which results in loss of control. With a strikeout pitcher he may overcome, but not a junk ball pitcher like Keuchel.

Strasburg is coming off his worst start of the season, a 29 game score. But he has been excellent after a 50 or lower start this season. His game score in those contests were 76, 52 and 67. 

Washington has won the last four meetings, this home team is a bargain.

PLAY WASHINGTON

961 Tampa Bay at NY Yankees

Chirinos & Tanaka

Six of the last ten meetings in this series have been won by the road team. The Yankees have a half game lead on the Rays in the division, yet the close game luck has all been on the New York side. The Yankees are a combined 12-10 in one run and extra inning games, while the Rays are 7-13 in those contests. 

Over the last seven starts Chirinos has an average game score of 60, while Tanaka is at 56. Yonny has been even better on the road than at home. Our numbers suggest nice value here on the road underdog.

PLAY TAMPA BAY

910 San Diego at Colorado

Margevicius & Lambert

Nick Margevicius is a soft throwing lefty that has only produced 18 strikeouts in his last seven starts. The last thing you want pitching in Coors Field is a guy without the ability to throw strikeouts. In two starts against the Rockies this year he has a 35 game score, allowing 10 earned runs in nine innings of work. 

The Padres have never faced Peter Lambert who has a 66 game score average after his first two starts. Both of those starts came against a solid Cubs offense, once at home and once away. Colorado has beaten the Padres 6 of 8 games this season, and 29 of 46 the past three seasons. Lay it with the favorite.

PLAY COLORADO

951 Arizona at Philadelphia

Duplantier & Arrieta

Big fan of the young Jon Duplantier who has pitched very well despite being called upon to fill different roles for the Diamondbacks this year. In his two starts he is averaging a game score of 52 which is higher than league average. Jake Arrieta on the other hand has a 46 game score average his past seven starts. His last two starts resulted in allowing 10 earned runs in only 9.2 innings of work. His strikeout to walk ratio in those contests was 6 to 6. Over the past three seasons Arizona has posted a combined 11-3 record in this series. Nice payoff on the underdog here. 

PLAY ARIZONA

960 St Louis at Chicago Cubs

Wainwright & Hendricks

Our numbers show Hendricks with a 23% starting pitcher advantage. The Cards are 11-18 on the road and Chicago is 23-11 at home. Hendricks has an average game score of 68 his last seven starts, as opposed to Wainwright with a 51 over that same time frame. Hendricks at home has produced game scores of 56, 77, 82 and 80 his last four starts at Wrigley. Over the last three seasons the Cubs have won 28 of the 46 games in this series. The home team has won nine straight in this series. 

PLAY CHICAGO CUBS

912 Colorado at NY Mets

Gray & Matz

Steven Matz has been at his best pitching in Citi Field this season. His game scores have been 53, 63, 66 and 67. Overall his last seven starts outrank Jon Gray 53 to 49. Matz is also coming off a poor performance on the road at Arizona where he permitted five earned runs in only six innings of work. We back the slight home favorite here.

PLAY NEW YORK METS

917 Chicago WS at Kansas City

Giolito & Keller

Lucas Giolito was a top minor league pitching prospect for years. But injuries and lack of control always kept him as a fringe 4A player. But he has burst on to the scene in a big way this season. In his last seven starts he has a 70 average game score. His last three starts were 77, 73 and 87. His strikeout to walk ratio in those three games was a combined 28 to 2. Needless to say Giolito has arrived. And because of his poor career until this point his numbers are still at a bargain price. 

Brad Keller by comparison is at 44 his last seven starts, league average is about 50. Keller’s last two home outings were game scores of 34 and 33. The Royals are 15-31 at home vs right handed starters. We look for the Royals bats to be in hibernation.

PLAY CHICAGO WHITE SOX 

926 Oakland at Los Angels Angeles

Montas & Canning

Big offensive edge here of 18% for the host, along with a 9% starting pitching edge. Canning has a 34 to 9 SO to W ratio his last seven starts, but that includes the 6 to 4 ratio at Baltimore on May 5th. His game score through those seven games averaged 58. 

We like Frankie Montas but he has been extremely lucky in the home run department. Amazingly he has gone eight straight starts without allowing a home run. We rate the Angels offense 17% higher than league average at home against righties. Nice price on the home team.

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973 Houston at Oakland

Verlander & Anderson

We’ve been looking at a great spot to fade Brett Anderson, and we get the chance tonight. His advanced stats show he’s due for major regression, and he’s really struggled against this Houston offense. In the last two seasons he has permitted 12 earned runs in only 5.2 innings against the Astros. Houston is 29-15 against Oakland in the past three seasons. 

Justin Verlander has posted a dominating 72 game score in his last seven starts, with a 57 to 8 SO to W rate. Late it with the Astros.

PLAY HOUSTON -148

954 San Francisco at Miami

Beede & Alcantara

San Francisco has lost seven straight games. In its last ten contests the Giants have scored four runs or less every game. As bad as the Marlins have been the past three seasons it still owns a combined 11-4 record against these Giants.

Tyler Beede has a 31 average game score in three major league starts. Over his last seven games Sandy Alcantara has a 48 game score average. 

The Giants are an amazing 16-6 combined in one run and extra inning games. This team has only won 21 games on the season, and have been extremely fortunate in close games. That’s a regression stat waiting to happen.

PLAY MIAMI 

918 Detroit at Baltimore

Carpenter & Means

Large starting pitcher advantage for the Orioles here as Means rates 16% higher than Carpenter. In fact, the Tigers lefty rates 13% worse than an average MLB starter. 

John Means has been terrific pitching at home with his latest game scores being 61, 71 & 60. That included facing the hitters of the Angels and Red Sox. When comparing the last seven starts from each of these pitchers Means has a 54 game score average, while Carpenter is at 37. 

Ryan Carpenter is coming in off his best start of the season, at the Mets with a game score of 62. But that was by far the best start of his career, as 51 was his previous high. We look for regression from the Detroit lefty here.

PLAY BALTIMORE

955 Philadelphia at Milwaukee

Eflin & Woodruff

Over the last three seasons these two teams have split the 18 games played, including 3-3 so far this year. Eflin & Woodruff faced off just 12 days ago with the Brewers winning 6-1. While Woodruff out-pitched Eflin in that game, the differential wasn’t as drastic as the final score. Woodruff had a 5 to 5 strikeout to walk outing, while Eflin’s was 7 to 2. In fact, career wise in this series Eflin has a 22 to 4 strikeout to walk ratio, while Woodruff is 8 to 7. Small sample size shows Woodruff to dominate this team, but the advanced stats don’t stand up. Our numbers have the Brewers starter only 3% better than the young Philadelphia righty. We also like the Phillies 5% offensive advantage. Our numbers say there is no way the Brewers should be a favorite of this size, we take advantage with a solid underdog play.

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919 Tampa Bay at Cleveland

Morton & Carrasco

The Rays have a 29-19 record on the season despite being very unlucky. Tampa is a combined 4-12 in one run and extra inning games. Very strange considering the back of this bullpen is very talented. 

Morton is coming off his worst start of the season with a 40 game score at the Yankees. His prior road games this season resulted in game scores of 71, 68, 69, 53 and 57. 

Carlos Carrasco has an ERA of about one full run higher than the last two seasons. His velocity is down and he has been very inconsistent. His last two starts against the Rays resulted in eight earned runs in 15 innings. The Rays are the better team with a comparable starter as an underdog. Sign us up.

PLAY TAMPA BAY

963 Tampa Bay at Cleveland

Snell & Bieber

Two major regression candidates on the mound today. Snell has been unlucky when looking at the advanced stats, while Bieber has been very fortunate.

Believe it or not Blake Snell has been terrific this year when not facing…..the Kansas City Royals. In two starts against them he has game scores of 41 and 18. On the road when not seeing the Royals he has numbers of 67, 78 and 64. 

Shane Bieber is coming off the best start of his career. A complete game shutout of the Orioles with 15 strikeouts. In the previous five starts he permitted 17 earned runs in 28.2 innings of work. His two year history shows he pitches much better on the road than at Progressive Field. 

PLAY TAMPA BAY

953 Miami at Washington

Lopez & McGowin

Don’t look now but the Marlins are only 1 1/2 games behind the Nationals in the division. The Fish have won six straight games as Washington continues to flounder. (Pun intended). Lopez rates 13% higher than McGowin and Miami is playing with a confidence we haven’t seen out of this team in years. The Nationals bullpen should get a lot of time in this one, and that’s a good outcome for the Marlins. Washington’s bullpen has been horrendous all season. Nice price with a live dog here.

PLAY MIAMI

969 Boston at Toronto

Porcello & Sanchez

The Red Sox have simply dominated the Blue Jays the last three seasons winning 30 of 42 games. Rick Porcello struggled the start the season but has been extremely good his last six starts with game scores of 59, 52, 61, 64, 51 and 53. During that time he has a strikeout to walk ratio of 33 to 7. We have him rated 35% better than Aaron Sanchez. The Red Sox also own a 10% better defense in this contest. We look for the Sox to bounce back from a rare loss to the Jays yesterday.

PLAY BOSTON 

951 Cincinnati at Milwaukee

Castillo & Davies

Not that Yellich and Braun have been declared out for the Brewers, it’s time to back the much better starter in this one. We rate Castillo a whopping 34% higher that Davies, who is due for some regression. The Reds are only 9-17 in one run games and extra innings, while the Brewers are 11-6. That means regression favors our club. The last three road games for Castillo showed game scores of 74, 60 and 68. Cheap price for the Reds here in this early contest.

PLAY CINCINNATI 

903 Colorado at Pittsburgh

Marquez & Archer

The Rockies own every key edge here except home field advantage. We rate Marquez 13% higher than Archer, and some of that has to do with Chris Archer’s past, as he has not pitched nearly as well since the trade to Pittsburgh. The Rockies have won 3 of 4 in Pittsburgh and Marquez has a 60 game score in his last five contests against the Pirates. Colorado took money overnight for good reason, but the line is still much lower than what we made it.

PLAY COLORADO 

953 Philadelphia at Chicago

Arrieta & Darvish

The Phillies are 6-7 in one run and extra inning games, while the Cubs are 11-6. So we should see some regression in Philadelphia’s favor. Over the last seven starts these two have almost identical game scores of 51 for Arrieta & 52 for Darvish. Arrieta has a better strikeout to walk ratio, but You is off an 11 to 0 game. So how much do we trust that Darvish is back off that solid performance? 

While Darvish does rate 8% better by our pitching numbers, he’s still being priced as the Darvish of old. He’s battled injuries the past few years going back to his time in Texas. He pitched much of his last season there hurt, and he didn’t let management know. While we admire his pride, he just hasn’t been the same pitcher since. Our numbers give the Phillies an 11% offensive advantage here which is enough for us to back the road squad. 

PLAY PHILADELPHIA

971 Baltimore at Cleveland

Means & Plutko

We had a nice payoff on the Orioles yesterday, and today we get their best starter on the mound. Means owns a 55 game score his last seven starts. Posting a 2.61 ERA in the process. He has never faced the Tribe. Plutko is making his first start of the year, and owns a 47 game score and 5.77 ERA in his previous seven starts. In 80.1  big league innings he has permitted 22 home runs. 

It’s rare when you get a starting pitcher in this price range that has a 24% advantage over the opposition. We will once again fade the high priced Indians who are simply not the same team as recent seasons.

PLAY BALTIMORE

917 Baltimore at Cleveland

Bundy & Rodriguez

Much prefer the Orioles on the road when catching a higher return. Despite the season numbers we grade Bundy 6% higher than Rodriguez. Dylan Bundy is taking a major step down in offensive competition here after facing the Angels, Rays twice, Twins twice, A’s and Yankees his last seven starts. Jefry Rodriguez has had a good start to the season but keep in mind he has faced the A’s, White Sox, Marlins and Royals. Nice value here on the road dog.

PLAY BALTIMORE

921 Houston at Boston

Cole & Porcello

Playoff revenge for the Astros who lost the American League Championship to these Red Sox. This is the first meeting of the season for these two. Boston is the better fielding team and the offenses grade out even, but pitching is all Houston. We rate Cole 17% higher than Porcello, and the bullpen rates a 16% advantage. We don’t use motivation as much of a factor in baseball, but the Astros have talked about how poorly they played against Boston all off season. Keep in mind Houston won the regular season series each of the past two years.

PLAY HOUSTON

925 Colorado at Boston

Marquez & Rodriguez

Marquez on the road has produced game scores of 68, 75, 94 and 55. Our numbers rate him 16% better than Rodriguez. The Rockies actually match up very well here as they hit 5% better than league average on the road vs lefties. Our line has this game much closer to a coin flip, so we will gladly take the plus money with the Rockies.

PLAY COLORADO

954 Milwaukee at Philadelphia

Woodruff & Eickhoff

The Phillies have a solid 12% advantage offensively, along with a 5% bullpen edge. The Brewers are 24-19 on the season but have been lucky in one run and extra inning games with a combined 9-4 record. The Phillies are 4-7 in that category. Woodruff has a game score of 52 on the season, Eickhoff is 65.5 and that includes a low of 46 at Colorado.

PLAY PHILADELPHIA

909 Los Angeles Angels at Minnesota Twins

Skaggs & Berrios

The Angels show a 21% offensive edge here, while the Twins have the better pitching and defense. Minnesota will likely be without its DH tonight as Nelson Cruz is dealing with a wrist problem. Tyler Skaggs has been good but he’s off his worst start of the season. We expect a bounce back from the Angels lefty. While the records say the Twins are the better team, keep in mind that regression is in order. Minnesota is 7-3 combined in 1 run and extra inning games, while the Angels are 2-8 in those type of contests. We are getting good value here against one of the hottest pitchers in the majors. 

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925 NY Yankees at Tampa Bay

Sabathia & Stanek

The advanced stat community has been looking to fade CC the past two years with little success. He doesn’t have the ability to dominate like he did in his early career, but he has learned to be a better pitcher as opposed to a thrower. Because of that we are seeing more value on him as of late. Our numbers have this as more of a toss up game, while the market shows the Rays with a 60% chance for victory. We gladly take the plus money on what we view as an equal contest.

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918 Detroit at Minnesota

Turnbull & Pineda

Spencer Turnbull is getting a great deal of credit in this line, but we still rate him 3% worse than an average MLB starter. The concerns about the Tiger offense continue, as the team was shut out again yesterday. The numbers said Tigers yesterday, but the team was uncompetitive. Can’t see them giving a better effort here in the first game of the doubleheader.

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961 Washington at Los Angeles

Sanchez & Maeda

This line has been hit upwards since the opener, but we feel it’s now at a value point in taking the Nationals. Yes, Washington has been a major disappointment this season, but keep in mind the talent level on this team. No way, with this pitching matchup, should the Dodgers be this size a favorite tonight. The Nationals won yesterday, no reason to think they can’t win again tonight, especially at this price.

PLAY WASHINGTON

979 Philadelphia at Kansas City

Arrieta & Bailey

The only advantage the Royals have in this contest is a 6% defensive advantage. The Phillies own a whopping 29% offensive edge, 10% bullpen advantage and 14% starting pitcher strength. Homer Bailey has solid numbers against the Phillies, but he has only faced them once since 2014. Very reasonable price for the much better ball club.

PLAY PHILADELPHIA

973 Detroit at Minnesota

Ross & Odorizzi

This is what we call a spite play. Tyson Ross is still trying to get back to where he was earlier in his career, and he’s had a tough time doing it. Minnesota has been a red hot squad that is making believers out of a lot of pundits. But when was the last time a Jake Odorizzi start had a number in this price range? He is 51-50 with a FIP of 4.18 for his career. He’s off to a great start with a 2.78 ERA on the season. But what do you believe, 168 career starts or 7 starts in 2019? Plenty of value on the Tigers here as the Twins having been more than a -202 favorite this season, and that was on opening day. 

PLAY DETROIT

915 Seattle at NY Yankees

Leake & Happ

The Yankees hold the edges in pitching and defense, along with fielding. But not in hitting as the Mariners continue to rake against just about everyone. We’ve faded Seattle in the past but this number is just too high to ignore the Mariners in this one. Taking the clear value here on Seattle.

PLAY SEATTLE

971 LA Angels at Detroit

Skaggs & Boyd

Big fans of both these pitchers but we are fading the line move here. LA opened as the favorite, but the Tigers have taken money overnight. Our numbers make LA a -134 favorite in this contest. Offense is the main reason as the Tigers continue to struggle at the plate. Against lefties the Angels rate 17% better than the Tigers offensively. Detroit has overachieved this season, and continue to be overpriced.

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921 LA Angels at Detroit

Canning & Norris

Griffin Canning has just one start under his belt but he already rates as one of the top Angels starters. We take advantage of this number now before the betting public knows more about him. Huge offensive discrepancy here as LA rakes and the Tigers continue to struggle with the bats. Lay the short number here with the much more complete team in this matchup.

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919 Minnesota at Toronto

Berrios & Sanchez

Really starting to believe in this Minnesota squad. Berrios is having a breakout year and rates 36% higher than Sanchez. With a weak pitcher on the mound we are looking for a big offensive game from the Twins. Our numbers still have Sanchez 26% worse than an average MLB starter. This is a good hitting environment. Major mismatch is a reasonably priced game.

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902 Atlanta at Miami

Teheran & Lopez

Three of our top four gradings in this contest favor the home underdog. We have Lopez rated 14% higher than Teheran. The Braves advantage is obviously offensively, but only by 11%. We are showing a very solid 10% overall edge for the underdog. 

PLAY MIAMI

920 Seattle at Cleveland

Swanson & Anderson

This line has steadily climbed overnight and we understand why. We make Cleveland a -164 favorite here. The Indians bullpen and defense are the main reasons, as both starters grade out lower than league average. The Indians continue to find ways to win with a banged up team, let’s expect another victory from the host.

PLAY CLEVELAND

964 LA Dodgers at San Diego

Hill & Lucchesi

Wrong team favored by our numbers which is a rarity in the case of the Dodgers. Los Angeles is the most talented team in baseball, and yet they are misplaced in this one. We rate Lucchesi 14% better than Hill, and the bullpens are virtually equal. Keep in mind both closers pitched yesterday, throwing 19 and 21 pitches. Therefore neither may be available tonight. We have this lined as a pick ‘em, so value is on the home dog.

PLAY SAN DIEGO

969 Kansas City at Detroit

Bailey & Ross

Two of the worst starters in our database go at it in Detroit today. But instead of jumping on the over, we will back the underdog. These teams are so close talent wise that the biggest advantage in the game is the KC defense which is 4% better than that of the host. Going down every key stat we use shows these two clubs being completely equal on Saturday. That puts us squarely on the plus money Royals, on what we grade out as a coin flip.

PLAY KANSAS CITY

966 Minnesota at NY Yankees

Odorizzi & Happ

The Yankees have owned the Twins at home for years, and it was even mentioned on the Twins broadcast of yesterdays game. It’s in the heads of the Minnesota players, and that’s a huge advantage for the host. Our numbers are showing a whopping 8% overall advantage for the Yankees today, as defense is the only edge the Twins own. This number should be much higher.

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909 NY Mets at Milwaukee

Matz & Woodruff

This could very well be a low scoring affair as Hader didn’t have to work yesterday, and the Mets got a complete game from Thor. But we can’t pass up the Mets getting plus money in a game we grade out as very close to a coin toss. New York has the better bullpen overall, but Milwaukee is the better defensive team. Other than that both teams are virtually equal in offense and starting pitching.

PLAY NEW YORK METS

923 Toronto at Texas

Thornton & Minor

Despite all the talk about this Texas offense, much of that success comes from the ballpark the team plays in. In fact, our numbers rate Toronto 9% higher than that of the Rangers. Mike Minor is rebounding nicely from a major injury, but we also like young Trent Thornton on the mound. Texas is the better fielding team, but that’s not nearly enough to explain this very high line. We are showing 7.5% value on the Blue Jays in this one.

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907 San Francisco at Cincinnati

Beede & Gray

While we grade out Gray to have a 7% edge over Beede, the other pitching and defensive numbers favor the road underdog. Especially the Giants bullpen which is a full 16% better than that of the Reds. Unlike other cappers who only rate offense and starting pitching, we are able to gain edges by focusing on areas that are important, but not in the mainstream.

PLAY SAN FRANCISCO

901 St Louis at Chicago

Flaherty & Hendricks

We are showing a solid 5.5% advantage with the Cardinals here. Two very good starters but we rate Flaherty 7% higher than Hendricks. The bullpens and defense are virtually equal, but the Cards own a healthy 9% offensive advantage. It all adds up to a nice start to a strong card on baseball on Friday.

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901 St Louis at Washington

Mikolas & Scherzer

Despite the excellent Max Scherzer on the mound it’s tough laying a sizable number with these Nationals. For the second straight season this team has been a money burner, as it just isn’t playing up to its talent level. 

Washington is 12-16 on the year despite playing 16 of 28 games at home. The Cardinals own a +34 run differential with the Nationals. Washington is just 6-10 while playing in this building. So despite the starting pitcher advantage we find value on taking the road underdog.

PLAY ST LOUIS

955 San Diego at Atlanta

Paddock & Teheran

The Braves have a 6% hitting advantage in this contest, but San Diego owns all the other key stats. A major advantage for the Padres is on the mound as San Diego has a 24% pitching edge in this contest. The Padres are also the better defensive team. Paddock came into this season with a great deal of hype, and he’s lived up to it very well. Robbie Erlin saved the Pads bullpen yesterday throwing 38 pitches. Therefore the entire back of the bullpen arsenal is fully rested tonight.

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957 San Diego at Washington

Lucchesi & Hellickson

The Nationals are picking up just where they left off last year, as one of if not the most disappointing teams in the league. The bullpen continues to be bad, and the offense isn’t anything beyond average. The Padres have a large 24% starting pitching edge here, and the San Diego bullpen is far superior. The opening line was a bad one and we follow the money on this one.

PLAY SAN DIEGO

901 Cincinnati at St Louis

Mahle & Hudson

We’ve made it a habit of going against the young Cardinals lefty. While he has the talent he’s not shown it at this level as of yet. Because he’s highly thought of we continue to take advantage of the overlay price. Tyler Mahle is a journeyman, but he is not considered a hot shot prospect, which plays in our favor. We are showing a nice 4% advantage on the road dog here.

PLAY CINCINNATI

977 Texas at Seattle

Miller & Kikuchi

Have no idea why this line opened so high. It’s trending down but still has a way to go. Our numbers show a 5% edge with the Rangers here. The key stats are even between these two with the biggest edge being a 10% offensive advantage for the host. This line shows a nice advantage on the dog.

PLAY TEXAS

975 Los Angeles at Kansas City

Skaggs & Duffy

Two starters coming off the DL, but only one has been effective in the last few seasons. We rate Skaggs 13% better than Duffy who is making his first start of the season. The Angels have a huge 21% offensive advantage as KC hits lefties 7% worse than average at home. Kansas City has the defensive edge, but every other key stat backs the visitor.

PLAY LOS ANGELES ANGELS