971 Detroit at Chicago

Norris & Rodon

Neither team hits lefties very well, but we rate the Tigers southpaw 11% better. In fact, other than starting pitching these two teams grade out virtually equal. So why are the White Sox favored? They shouldn’t be as we make the Tigers -114.

PLAY DETROIT

957 Colorado at Atlanta

Senzatela & Fried

Max Fried is getting a whole lot of respect off a small sample size. We only have him 6% better than Senzatela, and this line is saying he’s much better than that. While Atlanta holds slight edges across the board, the numbers just don’t add up to a number this high. This number should be -136, not where it is right now. 

PLAY COLORADO

912 Cleveland at Houston

Bauer & Cole

Not only have these two teams been playoff rivals as of late, but there is bad blood because of Trevor Bauer. He has been very vocal about how he thinks the Astros pitchers are cheating. Using a foreign substance to get more spin on the ball. The Astros players, especially Bergman have called him out in the press. This has gone on for some time now, so I’m sure this game will have a playoff feel.

From a handicapping perspective the big advantage for the host is offensively, with a 21% edge. Cleveland has the much better defense, while the combination of Cole and the Astros bullpen gives them a 25% pitching advantage. While we love Trevor Bauer and his intensity, the Astros are at a very cheap price. We made this line -178. Plenty of value on the host.

PLAY HOUSTON

978 Seattle at San Diego

Hernandez & Paddack

Here we have a young starter we want to back, against an old starter who is still trying to hold on. Our numbers give the San Diego pitching a whopping 40% advantage in this contest. And Seattle hasn’t hit nearly as well on the road as they have at home. The Padres own all the edges here and this line should be closer to a 2 to 1 favorite.

PLAY SAN DIEGO 

976 Miami at Cleveland

Alcantara & Rodriguez

The Tribe owns every key statistic In this Interleague contest. It’s a rare occasion that Cleveland has a double digit offensive advantage. The Tribe also has a 26% pitching edge. We talked earlier in the season on backing the Marlins as a home dog, but fading them on the road. We made this line much higher, so plenty of value to do so here.

PLAY CLEVELAND

909 Los Angeles Dodgers at Chicago Cubs

Maeda & Quintana

The Dodgers are the most talented team in the National League, and have the deepest starting pitching staff in baseball. The Cubs are quite the opposite as the starting rotation is getting old, with no Major League ready prospects in the high minors. The Dodgers own every key stat in this contest, from offense, defense and overall pitching. The opening line last night was a complete mistake and was bet into very quickly. It’s still not where it should be as we have the Dodgers as clear favorites in this one.

PLAY LOS ANGELES DODGERS

959 Chicago White Sox at Baltimore

Nova & Cashner

As with yesterday the Sox own advantages across the board in this one. Pitching along gives Chicago at combined 33% advantage. We spoke yesterday about the Orioles success on the road but complete failure at home. It’s hard to think of any team right now that has a worse home field advantage.

PLAY CHICAGO WHITE SOX

954 Philadelphia at NY Mets

Arrieta & Matz

Cheap line on the host here as we grade Matz 10% higher than Jake Arrieta. Philadelphia only hits lefties 2% better than league average. A major drawback for the Phillies here is coming off a series in Colorado. Coors Field is so different than other parks in the league, it does take some time to adjust to when leaving. We take advantage of that tonight.

PLAY NEW YORK METS

959 Chicago White Sox at Baltimore

Banuelos & Hess

Manny Banuelos was once one of the highest rated prospects in the Yankees minor leagues. He was originally a starter but has worked out of the bullpen for the past few seasons. We rate him 15% higher than David Hess of the Orioles. In fact, our numbers have the Sox with every key advantage in this contest. Baltimore has been a big money maker on the road this year, but burn the cash at home. We look for more of the same here.

PLAY CHICAGO WHITE SOX

914 Cincinnati at San Diego

Mahle & Lucchesi

Big starter mismatch for the Padres here with a 31% advantage for the host. The bullpen is also huge for the Padres. The negative for San Diego is getting off to slow starts. This is a team that continues to struggle through the first five, and finds a way to take the lead behind this excellent bullpen. While we like the Padres in the game, if San Diego starts slowly we can get a great number in live wagering. Keep an eye out for that as we may get the opportunity to hit these Padres twice on Sunday.

PLAY SAN DIEGO

907 New York Mets at St Louis

Syndergaard & Hudson

We went against young Cards starter Dakota Hudson last time out, and we find another favorable matchup to oppose him here. Syndergaard rates 47% better by our starter numbers, and the bullpen for the Mets grades out much stronger. The line has moved towards the Mets overnight, but not nearly enough.

PLAY NEW YORK METS

978 Seattle at Los Angeles Angels

Kikuchi & Cahill

There isn’t a lot of data points on the Mariners lefty as of late, but most experts feel Yusei can be a top of the rotation starter. That said, we are not sure he’s at that area right now. But yet he’s being priced that way in the marketplace. We have the Angels being better in every major category in this one, yet the line is very favorable. We will take advantage.

PLAY LOS ANGELES ANGELS

959 Los Angeles Dodgers at Milwaukee

Ryu & Anderson

Major pitching mismatch here as we rate Ryu 32% better than Chase Anderson. Along with the better bullpen and overall offense, this is a cheap price for Los Angeles. The Brewers biggest edge in any game is when Josh Hader takes the mound. But he threw 34 pitches yesterday and will not be available today.

PLAY LOS ANGELES DODGERS

927 Toronto at Oakland

Stroman & Brooks

Is it possible that Marcus Stroman is back? He’s looked much better this season and his advanced numbers back up his results on the mound. Aaron Brooks is a fringe starter and rates 24% below league average. The Oakland bats were on fire earlier, but we rate these two offenses equal at this point of the season. This contest should be a coin flip based on our numbers with the host having a slight advantage playing in this building.

PLAY TORONTO

917 Kansas City at NY Yankees

Junis & Sabathia

CC sure is getting a great deal of respect in his second game coming off the DL. There may have been value on him then, but certainly not now in this price range. The Royals won yesterday so everyone thinks there is no way the Yanks lose two in a row at home against the lowly Royals. But we obviously disagree. We rate Junis 15% better than Sabathia, and the depleted Yankees bats are only 11& better than those of the Royals. This line should be much lower based on players stats, as opposed to names on the jerseys.

PLAY KANSAS CITY

961 Chicago at Detroit

Nova & Ross

Slight movement overnight towards the visitor, but not enough in our opinion. We rate Nova 18% better than Tyson Ross. Detroit has slight edges in fielding an offense, but not nearly enough to make up the starting pitcher advantage for the Sox. The bullpens are rated as equal, so no advantage either way.

PLAY CHICAGO WHITE SOX

904 St Louis at Milwaukee

Wacha & Burnes

Decent sized pitching edge for the Brewers here as we rate Milwaukee with a 24% advantage with the starters and the bullpen. With Josh Hader taking yesterday off, he’s available for multiple innings if called on today. Wacha still working his way back from injury, which means this struggling Cardinal bullpen will likely be called on early.

PLAY MILWAUKEE

977 Cleveland at Seattle

Bieber & Leake

You are looking at the current ace of the Indians. The Tribe is having major starting pitching problems as Clevenger is injured, and both Kluber and Carrasco are dealing with low velocity issues. While Seattle owns a sizable 17% offensive edge, the pitching advantage for the Indians overwhelms it. Seattle was very fortunate early on with an amazing average with runners in scoring position. That regressed against the pitching of the Astros, and we see it continuing to regress against Bieber.

PLAY CLEVELAND

975 Houston at Oakland

McHugh & Estrada

The A’s are the better fielding team here, but all other advanced stats point towards the Astros. A 16% offensive advantage, a 14% bullpen edge, and a whopping 38% starting pitcher advantage for the visitor. We previously pointed out the Estrada signing being a good one for this division, but he is simply outclassed here against these Houston bats.

PLAY HOUSTON

967 Baltimore at Tampa Bay

Bundy & Glasnow

Probably our most contrarian play of the season. Right now Tampa looks like a major playoff contender, while the Orioles look to be one of the worst teams in the league. But the money line is the big equalizer, and the Rays are simply overpriced here. We are seeing lines in the 240-250 range and we only make this line 208. Unlike sports like the NFL & NBA, baseball teams typically win between 60 and 100 games each season. This line is basically saying the Rays have a 70% or better chance to win this contest. That’s roughly a 115 win team. While we like the Rays on the season, this number is worth a wager on the Orioles.

PLAY BALTIMORE

906 St Louis at Milwaukee

Hudson & Peralta

Cheap line in our opinion as we rate Freddy 26% better than the young Dakota Hudson. While we like the future of the Cardinals lefty, he’s not yet where this game has him lined. Other than a 3% offensive advantage for St Louis, the Brewers own every other key category we value. We grade the Cardinals bullpen 7% worse than league average, so that could be a big factor in this contest. 

PLAY MILWAUKEE

904 Chicago at Miami

Darvish & Richards

Nice opportunity to go against the struggling Yu Darvish at a plus money price. When the Rangers traded Yu to the Cubs it was clear at the time he was injured, yet Chicago continued to send him to the mound. In turn, he missed a great deal of time after surgery. The team expected him to be his old self this season but he’s still struggling badly, with control being the major problem. Trevor Richards is one of the starters we are looking to back this year. His advanced stats are on the incline, and yet he’s never talked about in baseball circles. Nice chance to back him here at a plus price against the overrated Cubs. 

PLAY MIAMI

960 San Diego at Arizona

Lauer & Greinke

At the beginning of every season the fans go crazy about the demise of Zack Greinke. Complaints about his lack of velocity and slow starts are common. But he always looks bad in Spring Training and as the season goes on he becomes the solid starter we expected. This line is based on those same old stories. We have Greinke rated 35% better than Lauer, which is not what this line is saying. It’s rare we get such a starting pitcher mismatch in this price range. We’ll jump on the home team before the expensive Zack numbers show in future starts.

PLAY ARIZONA

962 Milwaukee at Los Angeles Dodgers

Chacin & Stripling

We are taking a long range look at the Dodgers here who have lost six straight games. The truth is that this is likely the most talented and deep team in Major League baseball. Playing at home with a starting pitcher advantage of 37%. Los Angeles owns a 13% offensive edge, and the bullpen is currently much deeper than the Brewers. The line is low because the public doesn’t want to lay a price with a team on a losing streak. We scream SMALL SAMPLE SIZE and take the value on the host.

PLAY LOS ANGELES DODGERS

952 Philadelphia at Miami

Velasquez & Urena

Value on the home dog Marlins here who play much better at home than on the road. The Fish pounded the Phillies last night and we like their chances again on Sunday. While the best edge for the host is defensively, this line is simply too high on the visitor. Baseball betting is all about the numbers, and while Philadelphia should be favored, this number is way too high. Value play on the dog.

PLAY MIAMI

902 Pittsburgh at Washington

Archer & Sanchez

Intense battle yesterday as both teams used key bullpen pieces in the Pirates road victory. We do have Archer rated a full 9% better than Sanchez, but we still like Anibal as we have him graded 9% better than league average. Other than the starter edge for Pittsburgh, Washington owns all other key numbers in this matchup. We look for the host to even the series this afternoon.

PLAY WASHINGTON

959 Milwaukee at Los Angeles Dodgers

Burnes & Urias

Plenty of underdog value here on the Brewers, as the Dodgers return home after struggling in St Louis. Milwaukee had yesterday off after playing cross town against the Angels. While LA has a 13% offensive edge here, the Brewers own a slight advantage in all the other key categories. We rate this game much closer than the current price.

PLAY MILWAUKEE

973 Cleveland at Kansas City

Carrasco & Keller

Bargain price for the Tribe who has advantages across the board. Cleveland dominated divisional rivals last year and have owned the Royals for the past few seasons. Cleveland has a huge 64% pitching edge in this contest including the starter and bullpen. Neither team has hit well thus far, and it’s very doubtful the Royals can break out against this Cleveland pitching staff. 

PLAY CLEVELAND

955 NY Mets at Atlanta

Wheeler & Wright

Zach Wheeler had a breakout season a year ago and he’s even better thus far this season. We rate him a full 22% better than his young counterpart on the mound tonight. New York also has a clear bullpen advantage, which hasn’t been said very often the past few years in New York. With the offenses rating evenly the Mets should clearly be favored here by much more than the current number.

PLAY NEW YORK METS

958 Washington at Philadelphia

Hellickson & Pivetta

The Nationals have the better fielding team, as the Phillies are 4% worse than league average. But that’s the only edge for the visitor in this matchup. We especially show a huge margin on the mound as Pivetta rates a huge 30% better than Hellickson. With Doolittle not available after throwing 22 pitches last night in the Nationals 10-6 comeback win, we like the cheap number on the host.

PLAY PHILADELPHIA

955 Miami at Cincinnati

Richards & Mahle

The Reds bats finally broke out yesterday in a 14-0 pasting of the Marlins. So now all is right in Cincinnati. Not so fast as one game does not correct this season long problem. Sure the Reds do own a 16% offensive edge in this game, but the Marlins didn’t use any of its key relievers in that blood bath. While Cincinnati has that offensive advantage, all other numbers point to the underdog Marlins. Especially with a 10% starting pitcher edge as we rate Tyler Mahle 14% below league average. Plenty of value on Miami to bounce back from the embarrassing loss.

PLAY MIAMI

922 Seattle at Kansas City

Gonzales & Junis

Don’t look now but the Seattle Mariners have the best record in the Major Leagues. Actually, maybe you should look now because this team is about to take a major fall in the standings. Despite the hot start we aren’t buying the Mariners. Along with the New York Mets, they have yet to play a team with a winning record. 

Our numbers which do take in the small sample size of this season, show the only Seattle advantage in this contest being offense. The Royals are the much better defensive team, and we give Jake Junis a 6% advantage in starters. Before the season Kansas City would have likely been a -125 favorite here. You just can’t adjust your line over 30 cents based on an 8% of the season sample size. 

PLAY KANSAS CITY

915 Tampa Bay at Chicago White Sox

Morton & Santana

First game off the DL for veteran Ervin Santana. He’s had a long and sometimes stellar career, but not much is expected out of him at this point. In fact, we rate the veteran righty 20% below league average. In this contest the red hot Rays own advantages across the board, and our number has them graded closer to a 2 to 1 favorite to win this game. Nice value on the much better team with a major starting pitcher edge.

PLAY TAMPA BAY

970 Milwaukee at LA Angels

Chacin & Cahill

Getting this one up early as we expect the Angels to be a solid favorite by game time. Josh Hader has to throw 36 pitches yesterday to close out the Cubs, so the outstanding closer will not be available for the Brewers here. Milwaukee also has a long travel day while the Angels have been home. Los Angeles finally broke out offensively the last couple games and our numbers have LA 10% better offensively.  We also rate Cahill 12% better than Chacin, who continues to have success via smoke and mirrors. 

PLAY LOS ANGELES ANGELS

961 Tampa Bay at Chicago White Sox

Snell & Rodon

Nice value on the red hot Rays who send the Cy Young winner to the mound on Monday. Tampa has a huge 33% starting pitcher edge in this one. In fact, Tampa owns advantages across the board. While this line has been bet up slightly overnight, it’s still showing 17 cents of value on the visitor.

PLAY TAMPA BAY

930 Boston at Arizona

Velazquez & Kelly

When looking at runs scored and runs against, the Red Sox are by far the worst team in the league. And it’s not like they have been playing elite teams to start the season. Oakland was expected to be a playoff contender, but Seattle and Arizona were teams that were bet against in season wins circles. Sure the Red Sox have played every game on the road so far, but this is the defending World Series Champions. 

The wrong team is favored in this one as we much prefer the Diamondbacks on the mound. Velazquez is 20% worse than an average major league pitcher. Which tells you all you need to know about what the Red Sox have in the high minor leagues. The bullpen edge is all Arizona in this one, despite the Diamondbacks using key relievers yesterday. The Sox terrible start continues on Sunday.

PLAY ARIZONA

909 San Diego at St Louis

Strahm & Wainwright

Wrong team favored here by our numbers, as the only advantage the Cards have in this game is a 13% offensive edge. Wainwright was a dominant pitcher in his prime but after multiple injuries and procedures we rate him below league average. Matt Strahm on the other hand is a player we have really liked for a long time. And now he’s finally being recognized in the baseball community. With Andrew Miller blowing up badly last night, this Cardinal bullpen cannot be trusted.

PLAY SAN DIEGO

958 Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee

We couldn’t understand the move on the Cubs yesterday, which scared us off another winner as we had the Brewers showing value. The same thing happened on the overnights as Chicago took money again. But now the Brewers money has shown which backs up our projected line of -150 here. That leaves us with plenty of value on what is clearly the better team at this stage of the season. And best of all Milwaukee rested its dominating bullpen piece in Josh Hader. Chicago on the other hand blew out Brach, Edwards, Cishek and Kintzler yesterday. All throwing 16 pitches or more. 

Our numbers show the host having edges across the board and we are a big fan of Corbin Burnes, who could turn into the ace of this staff. Lay the cheap number on the Brewers.

PLAY MILWAUKEE

964 Kansas City at Detroit

Lopez & Moore

The Royals struggle against lefty starters hitting 6% worse than league average. While  Kansas City is the better defensive squad by 3%, all the other numbers point towards the home team. While we aren’t fond of either starter, we do rate Moore 12% better than Lopez. In fact, Lopez is rated 24% worse than league average. The number has been bet up a bit, but not nearly high enough. We like this spot for the Tigers on Saturday.

PLAY DETROIT

918 Minnesota at Philadelphia

Odorizzi & Pivetta

Our numbers have the Phillies dominating this contest with the only Minnesota edge coming via an 8% defensive edge. Will there be a letdown for the Phillies after facing the Nationals in the last series? Possibly, but unlike the physical play of basketball and football, baseball doesn’t seem to have that same letdown capacity. 

Philadelphia hits righties at home 20% better than the Twins hit right-handed pitching on the road. And Jake Odorizzi rates 15% worse than league average, while we really like Nick Pivetta. Out rating have him 17% better than league average, and most sharp baseball minds have him exploding this season. Cheap number here with the better team, better starter, and better offense playing at home.

PLAY PHILADELPHIA

922 Seattle at Chicago White Sox

Kikuchi & Lopez

If this game was being played a week ago the White Sox would be clear home favorites. But the Mariners have gotten off to a much better start than expected, and now we can take advantage of that small sample size. Seattle took 3 of 4 from the Red Sox and won two straight against the Angels, both series being played at home. When those two opponents played teams other than the Mariners, the Red Sox went 1-3 and the Angels 1-4. So don’t read too much into the Mariners success, it just so happened it played teams struggling to open the season. 

While Seattle owns slight edges in offense and starting pitching, the White Sox have equal advantages in defense and the bullpen. We rate this game dead even and have Chicago a slight favorite with home field advantage.

PLAY CHICAGO WHITE SOX

906 Arizona at San Diego

Ray & Lucchesi

The more we look into this contest the more we like a bounce back for the Padres. Arizona hits lefties 6% lower than league average and we rate Lucchesi a solid 5% better than the more publicized Ray. San Diego has a slight defense edge and a 7% bullpen advantage. In reality though that bullpen edge is magnified this afternoon. The Diamondbacks had to use the back end of its bullpen last night as Bradley and Holland combined for 27 pitches. The Padres rested the back end of its bullpen and only Robert Stock has pitched in the last two nights, throwing just 12 pitches in striking out the Diamondbacks side on Monday. Nice price for the Padres to get some revenge.

PLAY SAN DIEGO

967 Minnesota at Kansas City

Berrios & Keller

Really impressed with Jose Berrios and what  we expect from the Twins ace this year. He dominated the Tribe in his first outing and we rate this Royals offense 10% below league average. In fact, the Twins own advantages in every key category in this one. Including a solid 21% edge in starting pitching. We made this line much higher than what has come out as the opener, and the early money is moving our way. Still plenty of value left in this one.

PLAY MINNESOTA 

919 Houston at Texas

Peacock & Smyly

Drew Smyly returns to action for the first time in a very long time, as his injury past has been extensive. While our numbers rate him 6% better than league average, he will surely by rusty and his pitch count will be monitored. That’s very important as the Texas bullpen will be gassed after using eight pitchers the last two nights against the Cubs. The only edge the Rangers have in this game is a 7% advantage defensively.

Brad Peacock would be a number two or three starter on most teams, but he has been blocked in Houston. Our numbers have him at 23% better than league average, and because he hasn’t been a starter much in the past his name recognition helps with the number here. We believe the Astros should have been a -198 favorite here, which gives us plenty of value on the road team.

PLAY HOUSTON

964 Atlanta at Philadelphia

While we are not one to release many favorites of this size, this number is very cheap based on our ratings. While we like Kyle Wright for his future success, pitching on national tv in his debut here is a very tough situation. He’s currently rated 14% below league average and the Braves bullpen is in shambles. Jake Arrieta isn’t the same pitcher he was just a few short years ago, but he’s still rated league average by our numbers. We expected this line to be much higher than it is, so we will jump at a rare chance to bet the Phillies at home at a decent number.

PLAY PHILADELPHIA

980 Chicago at Texas

The early money here has come in on the dog and we fully support it. In fact, we have the Rangers graded out to be the slight favorite here as the opening number was way off. Cole Hamels returning to Texas will be the main story here, but the disparity in defense and the bullpens are where the true value is in this contest. All Joe Public looks for is hitting and starting pitching, which will point them slightly to the Cubs here. But when everything is considered the Rangers hold all the betting value.

PLAY TEXAS

908 Colorado at Miami

Plenty of value of the host here as we are a big fan of today’s starter Pablo Lopez. We already rate this youngster as 2% better than a league average starter, which is really saying something for a player no one knows outside of the state of Florida. The Rockies are expected to challenge the Dodgers this season, but we just don’t buy it. This offense rates out at league average on the road, and we bet Colorado under in season wins. With Colorado taking the first two games of the series, the public is buying into this short term sample. We like the Marlins to get into the win column here with a very generous price.

PLAY MIAMI

917 Cleveland at Minnesota

Loving me some Indians here on Saturday. We have the Tribe with every edge except hitting in this matchup. And we feel Trevor Bauer is in for a Cy Young type of season. We rate him 34% better than journeyman Jake Odorizzi. The Cleveland bullpen and defense add up to another 12% advantage for the visitor. Cleveland has taken money overnight, and we fully agree. But there is still plenty of value in this cheap number.

PLAY CLEVELAND

953 St Louis at Milwaukee

Opening day game comes down to the wire and the Brewers hold on for the victory. But in doing so Josh Hader had to throw 21 high pressure pitches in two innings of work. As opposed to the best arms in the Cardinals bullpen who had the day off. 

Our numbers show the Cards to have a 4% hitting edge, and a 5% bullpen advantage if Hader is available. The starter ratings show Flaherty to be 16% better than Peralta, and that number is very generous to the Brewers righty. Let’s grab this underdog price on the Cardinals as we expect St Louis to go off as a slight favorite.

PLAY ST LOUIS

921 Detroit at Toronto

Zimmerman & Stroman

We are looking to fade the Blue Jays here in the favorite role. This team should be in for a very long season, especially as it keeps the expected rookie of the year down in the minors. 

Jordan Zimmermann rates exactly even with Marcus Stroman, as both pitchers are 4% below league average. That really tells you all you need to know about these two pitching staffs, as these two mediocre pitchers get opening day starts. The Tigers have a 1% edge in the bullpen, while Toronto has the same 1% advantage in defense. The Jays own a small 3% edge offensively, which doesn’t equate to this betting line. Plenty of value on the Tigers here.

PLAY DETROIT 

906 Boston at Los Angeles

Change of scenery does wonders for the Dodgers here. Boston has to move around its excellent defense in order to get a subpar defensive player in JD Martinez into the field. No DH is a major problem for the Sox tonight defensively, especially if the move is in that excellent defensive outfield. 

Big starting pitcher edge for LA here as we have Buehler rated much higher than Porcello. The Dodgers have a 19% bullpen advantage and a 17% hitting edge as Boston really isn’t much better than league average on the road vs righties.

PLAY LOS ANGELES

951 Houston at Boston

Cole & Price

Sizable edges for the road team here as we grade Cole 13% higher than Price. The Houston bullpen is also superior by 22% while the offenses are even. The Astros are a very confident team and the deepest squad in the league. With Houston being stellar on the road this season we will back the Astros here.

PLAY HOUSTON

905 LA Dodgers at Milwaukee

Ryu & Miley

As good as Miley has been for the Brewers this year, it’s still a small sample size compared to his history. Which is why we grade Ryu 14% higher than the Brewers lefty. The Milwaukee bullpen is better but its best piece Hader threw 40 pitches yesterday, and he’s likely out tonight. With the offense being somewhat of a wash, we look for the Dodgers to even up this series today.

PLAY LOS ANGELES DODGERS

922 Boston at New York

Porcello & Sabathia

Cheap number on the Yankees here with its back to the wall after being blown out yesterday. While Boston has a 6% starting pitcher edge, the Yankees are far superior in the bullpen and offensively. New York hits 25% better at home vs right-handed starters than league average. We lay the short number tonight on the Yankees to even the series.

PLAY NEW YORK

952 Cleveland at Houston

Carrasco & Cole

Edges abound for the host here with an 11% starter edge, 3% bullpen advantage and 10% hitting edge. The Indians feasted on a bad division this season, while the Astros played in a competitive division and still put up a better record. The Astros are the best team in the postseason and this is a cheap number to get them at home.

PLAY HOUSTON

908 Cleveland at Houston

Putting this one up late so sorry for the lack of analysis. Purely a value play on the Astros.

PLAY HOUSTON

911 Los Angeles at Arizona

Stripling & Greinke

Just an amazing season for Ross Stripling who came out of nowhere this year when the Dodgers really needed him. LA has limited his innings as of late but the bullpen is solid. We rate the righty 17% better than Greinke in this contest. The Dodgers also have a 3% bullpen edge and a 12% offensive advantage. 

Greinke has pitched better at home this year, but the major inning numbers have taken a toll on him the past month. 

PLAY LOS ANGELES DODGERS

952 NY Mets at Washington

We all know how great Jacob deGrom has been this year, and he’s been just as good on the road. But even in a Cy Young year this number is way too high. We rate the Mets starter 32% better than Ross, but the other key stats all all heavily on the Nats. This game should be much closer to a pick ‘em.

PLAY WASHINGTON

903 Washington at Miami

Strasburg and Alcantara

We don’t usually tread in this deep of water when it comes to playing large favorites, but this line is really cheap considering the matchups. The Nationals rate 36% better in starting pitching, 18% better in the bullpen and 23% better offensively.

Strasburg owns a 2.26 ERA on the road with a 1.05 WHIP and .229 opposing team batting average. He hasn’t allowed a run to the Marlins in five innings this year. Alcantara has gotten off to a nice start with the Marlins but keep in mind he had a 1.80 WHIP last year in St Louis and has always suffered with control problems.

PLAY WASHINGTON

971 Minnesota at Kansas City

De Jong & Kennedy

Young Chase De Jong rates 5% higher than veteran Ian Kennedy and the Twins bullpen is 19% better than the host. Minnesota also has a 15% offensive advantage. A clean sweep on the underdog, can’t pass this one up. 

PLAY MINNESOTA

970 Chicago at Baltimore

Lopez & Ramirez

Bullpen game for the Orioles with Yefry Ramirez on the mound. He has been much better pitching at home than on the road. Lopez on the other hand has a 4.65 ERA, 1.52 WHIP and .268 opponent batting average away from home.

Our numbers show Ramirez with a 16% advantage and the Baltimore bats with an 8% edge. Chicago does have a 4% bullpen advantage. Wrong team favored here.

PLAY BALTIMORE

927 Arizona at Houston

Ray & Keuchel

Our numbers show the Diamondbacks with a solid 15% starting pitcher edge, while the Astros have the bullpen and hitting advantages by 18% and 15%. That’s not nearly high enough to be a favorite in this price range.

Robbie Ray has been outstanding on the road all season with a 2.90 ERA, 1.21 WHIP and .193 opponent batting average. 

Dallas Keuchel at home is just 4-5 on the season with a 3.66 ERA, 1.26 WHIP and .253 opponent batting average. 

Nice spot to take the generous dog price with the much better starter.

PLAY ARIZONA

969 Houston at Boston

Cole & Price

Terrific series between the two best teams in baseball. Cole rates 16% better than Price, although both are elite starters. Boston has a 2% better bullpen, but both are among the league leaders. Offensively Houston excels with a 4% advantage, although combined these two are 30% better than league average in hitting.

Cole is equally good on the road as opposed to home. His opponent batting average away of .206 is simply outstanding. 

Price has been better at home than away, but his inconsistency has hurt his season. Keep in mind he only pitched 74 innings a year ago, so he may be hitting a wall about now. We would rather trust Cole and company, and this line is quite the bargain.

PLAY HOUSTON

965 Tampa Bay at Toronto

Glasnow & Sanchez

Huge pitching advantage for the Rays as we rate Glasnow 52% higher than Aaron Sanchez. The Tampa Bay bullpen has a 6% advantage, while Toronto owns a 2% batting advantage. 

Sanchez continues to make his way back from major surgery, and while he does we can continue to take advantage. A 5.22 ERA and a 1.63 WHIP give us all the numbers we need to go against this starter. While it is a small sample size Tyler Glasnow has a 2.89 road ERA and a 0.70 WHIP on the road, along with an opponent batting average of .117. His overall numbers through 86.2 innings are very good as well. 

PLAY TAMPA BAY

907 Chicago at Milwaukee

Montgomery & Miley

Chicago owns the advantages across the board with a 12% starting pitcher edge, 3% bullpen advantage and 3% offensive edge. Montgomery has been better on the road, while Miley has done the same. The Cubs are the better squad and Miley is living on borrowed time.

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921 Detroit at Chicago

Liriano & Giolito

Detroit has a 14% starting pitcher advantage, and an 8% hitting edge, while the bullpens are virtually equal. The White Sox hit 16% worse than league average at home vs left-handed starters. 

Giolito has been a disaster in the major leagues, after being a highly touted prospect in the minors. He has pitched great his last three outings, which is why this line is so high. That said we cannot ignore his MLB history of a 5.09 ERA and 1.35 WHIP. Let’s take advantage of this small sample size as we expect Giolito to regress in this start.

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976 LA Angels at Texas

Shoemaker & Springs

Matt Shoemaker finally makes his second start of the season after not pitching in the majors since March. The line is based on him going somewhat deep into the game, but we expect this to be a bullpen game for the Angels. Exactly as it will be for the Rangers. 

Our numbers show the Rangers with a 10% starter advantage, with a 6% bullpen edge. The host also has a 6% offensive advantage in this one. Very cheap price on the host today.

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930 Toronto at Miami

Sanchez & Straily

Aaron Sanchez continues to work his way back into the Blue Jays future plans. The problem for Toronto fans is that he’s still not close to his pre-injury days. While Toronto has nothing to play for the management wants to get him in playing shape for next season, and build up his arm strength. That’s a big advantage for us as we rate Aaron Sanchez 43% lower than an average MLB starter. While Toronto does have a 12% bullpen edge, it’s Miami with a 3% batting advantage. 

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961 Minnesota at Cleveland

Odorizzi & Clevenger

This line is way too high by our numbers. Cleveland does have a 13% starting pitcher advantage, but that’s the only major edge for the Tribe. The Indians put Miller on the DL again, and Cody Allen has lost all confidence. The hitting is virtually identical. Odorizzi has shown better numbers on the road, while so has Clevenger.

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922 Seattle at San Diego

Ramirez & Lucchesi

The Padres have a 22% starting pitcher advantage, as our numbers really like Joey Lucchesi. He has a strange delivery which takes time to adjust to, especially in an interleave situation. The Padres bullpen also rates a 17% edge, while the Mariners own a 4% offensive advantage. 

Erasmo Ramirez is off three productive starts, but his career numbers have been mediocre at best. On the road he has a 5.23 ERA, 1.26 WHIP and allows opponents a .286 batting average. 

Joey Lucchesi has actually pitched better on the road, as home runs have been a problem at home. He has permitted 12 homers in only 61.1 innings of work here at Petco. That’s an anomaly we don’t see continuing. Nice price with the better pitching staff.

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958 Pittsburgh at St Louis

Nova & Flaherty

The Cardinals starter has a solid 27% advantage over Nova. The Pittsburgh bullpen does have a slight 5% advantage. St Louis owns the offense by 11% as the Pirates hit righties on the road 10% lower than league average. 

Jack Flaherty has been good at home with a 3.10 ERA, 1.09 WHIP and .205 opponent batting average. Ivan Nova owns a 5.18 ERA away with a 1.38 WHIP and a .278 opponent batting average. We don’t normally tread in this price range but the value is there on the host.

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978 Texas at San Francisco

Gallardo & Holland

Major starting pitcher advantage for Holland who rates 35% better than Yovani. San Francisco also holds a 15% bullpen edge, to go along with a 20% hitting advantage. The Rangers are 14% below league average on the road vs left handed starters. 

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968 Chicago at Detroit 

Kopech & Zimmermann

Michael Kopech has gotten a ton of hype which is why we can take advantage of the betting market here. We’ve followed his career in the minors and frankly we feel he is overrated. He struck out four batters in two innings in his debut, which helped push the hype train. While we rate him 7% better than Zimmerman, the host has the other key edges. A 6% bullpen advantage and a 14% hitting edge, as the Sox are 15% below league average on the road vs righties. 

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975 Philadelphia at Toronto

Velasquez & Estrada

Major pitching edge here as Marco Estrada is finally showing the regression many have called for the last few years. We rate Valasquez 26% superior to the Jays starter. The Phillies bullpen has a 12% advantage and offensively Philadelphia is 11% better than Toronto. We are getting quite a bargain on this contest.

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928 Texas at San Francisco

Perez & Suarez

Despite the win/loss records of the starters, we have a pitching mismatch by our numbers. Clear data sports has the Giants’ starter rated 39% higher than Perez. The San Francisco bullpen has a 15% edge and the offense a 17% advantage. Many times we agree with the line moves on games but this one is an exception. The opener was in the correct ballpark.

Perez has battled through injuries throughout his career and has never lived up to the hype. He has a 6.82 ERA on the road this season with a whopping 1.91 WHIP and an opponent batting average of .362. While he’s obviously not that bad, that just tells you how he has struggled this season. 

Andrew Suarez has been much better at home than on the road. He owns a 3.79 ERA with a 1.10 WHIP and an opponent batting average of .247. His strikeout to walk ratio is almost twice as high at home than on the road. 

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959 St Louis at Colorado

Mikolas & Senzatela

Major pitching advantage for the Cards here as Mikolas rates 30% better than his mound counterpart. Colorado owns a 4% bullpen edge, while the Cards have a 2% offensive advantage. 

Mikolas has a perfect 7-0 mark on the road this year. With a solid 3.47 ERA, 1.10 WHIP and .241 opponent batting average. Antonio Senzatela has pitched better at home this year with a 3.00 ERA. But his whip is high at 1.43 and his opponent batting average is .277. So don’t let that ERA fool you as he has permitted just one home run at Coors in 21 innings on the mound. We really though the Cards would be a sizable favorite tonight, this is a bargain price.

PLAY ST LOUIS 

914 Chicago at Detroit

Shields & Boyd

Big advantages for the host here. Detroit has a 29% starting pitcher edge, a 6% bullpen advantage, and a whopping 20 offensive edge. Chicago hits lefties on the road 20% worse than league average.

Boyd is 5-3 with a 2.80 ERA, 0.95 WHIP and .185 opponent batting average at Tiger Stadium. James Shields on the other hand is 1-7 on the road with a 5.75 ERA and a 1.43 WHIP.

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961 St Louis at Los Angeles

Flaherty & Buehler

Very surprised by the size of this line as we have this matchup much closer. Flaherty rates 5% better than Buehler, also we love both of these starters. While the Dodgers bullpen does have a sizable 23% advantage, it’s been in shambles as of late. The Dodgers have a 15% advantage offensively, but not nearly enough to support this high spread.

The Cardinals are on a 19-6 run including taking the first two games of this series. The Dodgers on the other hand have lost 8 of 11. Plenty of value on the dog here.

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916 Cleveland at Boston

Bieber & Eovaldi

As an Indians fan we watch every Tribe game all season. While the starting pitching staff has been terrific, we feel Shane Bieber is a ticking time bomb. Most of his stuff is pedestrian, and he’s had success because he’s only allowed seven home runs in 68 innings. His ERA is 4.37 which is mediocre. His WHIP is 1.41 which is high, and he allows opponents a .295 batting average which gets you sent to the minors very quickly. He’s having success at this level by smoke and mirrors.

Nathan Eovaldi has always had a terrific fastball in which he tried to overpower the batter and get the strikeout. Because of that he was too predictable and couldn’t go long in the game. This year because of getting older and prior injuries he’s finally learning how to be a pitcher. Since coming to the Red Sox he’s pitched 15 innings in Fenway Park and has yet to give up a single earned run. On the season his ERA is 3.62 with a WHIP of 1.04.

This line is low because of public perception, especially on the Bieber side of the equation. Let’s look for the Sox to even this series.

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966 Chicago at Minnesota

Giolito & Gonsalves

Decent price to go against one of our worst rated pitchers in the league. Not only do the Twins have a massive starting pitcher edge, but also a 20% advantage in the bullpen. Offensively Minnesota owns a 27% advantage offensively. Chicago hits lefties on the road 16% lower than average, and now must face a pitcher the players have never seen at this level.

Stephen Gonsalves has been simply amazing in his minor league career. He owns a 53-20 record with a 2.46 ERA. His WHIP is 1.10 with an opponent batting average of .199. That covers 599 minor league innings. We always like to back rookie lefties the first time through the league, and he should dominate this light hitting White Sox lineup.

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927 Houston at Oakland

Verlander & Manaea

Strong starting pitcher advantage for the Astros here. Our numbers show a 33% advantage with Verlander. Houston also shows an 18% bullpen edge. Houston also rakes on the road vs lefties hitting 20% higher than league average. 

Justin Verlander has dominated on the road this year with a 1.74 ERA with a 0.94 WHIP and an opponent batting average of just .195. While Manaea’s home stats are good the A’s haven’t backed him with much support. He’s only 5-5 on this mound this season. 

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901 NY Mets at Philadelphia

Syndergaard & Nola

Two excellent starters go head to head on Friday and we believe the line is a bit inflated on the host. Our numbers show the only real advantage in this game being the Phillies bullpen, but Syndergaard normally goes deep into games. We also feel that after the Phillies permitted a total of 30 runs yesterday, the bullpen will obviously be a little taxed. 

The Mets have played nine road games this month against the pitching staffs of the Nationals, Marlins, Yankees, Orioles and Phillies. In those nine games New York produced 73 runs. Since the All-Star Break the Mets have averaged 6.7 runs away from home. With Thor on the mound and the Mets being underrated on the road all season we like our chances in this one.

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953 NY Mets at Philadelphia

Oswalt & Suarez

First Game of Today’s Doubleheader

Taking a look at Corey Oswalt’s numbers suggest a much better pitcher than a 5.03 ERA would indicate. He’s allowed seven home runs on the season which is why the ERA is so high. But in reality he has a 1.07 WHIP and allows opponents just a .224 batting average. The Mets are one of if not the best road hitting team in baseball. It’s Citi Field that keeps this offense from getting the respect it deserves. Philadelphia was just in a series against the team running away with the best record in the league, the Red Sox. That was a show me series for this young team. We can’t see them getting up for the lowly Mets here. Our numbers have New York as a real bargain here.

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918 Pittsburgh at Minnesota

Archer & Berrios

The Minnesota hitters should have an advantage here as they are very familiar with Chris Archer from his years in Tampa Bay. The Pirates hitters on the other hand are unfamiliar with Jose Berrios. The Minnesota hurler has struggled in 2 of his last 3 starts, but should bounce back strongly here. He has a 2.95 ERA at home with an amazing 0.88 WHIP. Opponents are hitting just .187 against him on this mound. We rate Berrios with an 11% starting pitcher advantage, and a 15% hitting edge here, with the bullpens being even. 

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962 Chicago at Detroit

Giolito & Hardy

Lucas Giolito was once a prized pitcher in the Washington farm system. He was traded to the White Sox, and after Tommy John surgery has never been the same. He’s pitched much better on the road than at home this season, and he still has terrible numbers away. It’s even worse when he pitches at night, with a 7.24 ERA and 1.67 WHIP. This is not a pitcher we want anything to do with in this price range. Clear Data Sports rates Giolito 50% worse than an average major league pitcher. The White Sox continue to trot out three of the worst starters in baseball. Hardy rates 49% higher than Giolito, the Detroit bullpen has a 6% edge, and offensively Detroit hits 6% better against right-handed starters than the White Sox. Hardy has been a real bright spot for the Tigers this year. We trust him and the Tigers to make quick work of the visitor tonight.

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904 Washington at St Louis

Milone & Mikolas

Devastating loss for the Nationals last night with their ace starting the contest. Losing a 3-0 lead in the bottom of the ninth with one swing is about as bad of a loss as you can think of. Now the Bats have to travel off a night game to face the rejuvenated Cardinals. Huge pitching edge for the host who has a 41% advantage in the starters. The bullpens are equal, while Washington does have a 4% batting advantage. Miles Mikolas has been outstanding in this ballpark. A 2.01 ERA with a 1.03 WHIP on the season. He’s allowing opponents a .237 batting average and has only permitted two home runs in an amazing 71.2 innings of work at home. While that last stat is sure to regress, this man has owned this mound all season. Cheap number considering the circumstances.

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929 St Louis at Kansas City

Flaherty & Duffy

While we have made a living on underdogs this season, this is the time of year that favorites are golden. Once rosters expand we will find great value on underdogs and youth energizes losing teams. But for now we will lay it with the Cardinals tonight. Huge starting pitcher advantage for the Cards in this one with a 36% advantage with Flaherty. St Louis also holds a nice bullpen edge over the Royals. St Louis should dominate in the batters box with a 21% advantage as the Cards his lefty starters on the road 13% above league average.

Let’s take a look at home poorly Danny Duffy has performed at home this season. He is 1-5 with a whopping 6.48 ERA and 1.60 WHIP. Opponents are hitting .288 against him. Only three times this season has he permitted less than 4 earned runs in a home start. 

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955 Arizona at Cincinnati

Buchholz & DeSclafani

Fair price for the far better team here as we look to back Buchholz on the road. When healthy Clay has been a very good pitcher in his career. After two years struggling with injuries he’s back and resembling his old self. Our numbers count his injury struggles in the past and he still rates slightly higher than his mound opponent. The Arizona bullpen has a huge 18% advantage in this contest. The Diamondbacks also have a wide 14% offensive edge, as Cincinnati is 17% below league average at home vs right-handed starters. 

Buchholz has an excellent 2.10 ERA and 0.93 WHIP on the road, he also hold opponents to a .198 batting average. He owns a 29 to 7 SO to W ratio. DeSclafani has a 5.65 ERA at home with a 1.47 WHIP. Opponents are batting .287 against him in Cincinnati. 

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908 Pittsburgh at San Francisco

Nova & Suarez

Time to take advantage of one of the biggest home/road dichotomies in the league. Ivan Nova has been solid pitching at PNC Park, but look at what he has done the last few years on the road. This season 5.40ERA and 1.43 WHIP. Last year 5.02 ERA and 1.32 WHIP with a 3-12 record. In 2016 he had a 6.65 ERA 

And a 1.46 WHIP. 

Andrew Suarez is coming off his worst start of the season allowing 8 earned runs and 10 hits in just 5 innings of work. He has been a much better pitcher at home posting a 3.64 ERA and 1.07 WHIP on the season. 

Our numbers rate him 13% better than Nova, with the bullpens rating virtually identical. But the Giants have a large 14% hitting edge as the Pirates are 11% below league average on the road vs left-handed starters.

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968 Boston at Toronto

Johnson & Hauschild

We’ve been looking for a chance to go against Brian Johnson and the price is right here to take the underdog Jays. While the numbers say Johnson has a 2.22 ERA on the road this year, he has been extremely lucky. His road WHIP is 1.56 and he permits a .293 opponent batting average. Last year on the road he had an 8.22 ERA with a 1.96 WHIP and a .324 opponent batting average. 

Our numbers show Mike Hauschild to be 6% better than Johnson, with the bullpen being virtually equal. Boston hits right-handed starters on the road equally as well as Toronto hits lefties at home. This line should be closer to even.

PLAY TORONTO

903 St Louis at Miami

Mikolas & Lopez

We have a 15% starting pitching edge for the Cardinals, as well as a 12% bullpen advantage. St Louis also has the dominant offense by 14%, as the Marlins are 11% below league average at home vs right-handed starters. In home games Pablo Lopez has a 5.60 ERA, 1.53 WHIP and allows a .304 opponent batting average. While Mikolas is known for his outstanding 2.01 ERA at home, he’s actually done very well on the road. He’s 6-0 with a solid 3.56 ERA with a 1.14 WHIP and a .244 opponent batting average. Let’s lay it with the Cards, a team that looks ready to make a playoff push.

PLAY ST LOUIS

909 Colorado at Milwaukee

Gray & Miley

While John Gray has looked like an entirely different pitcher since being sent down to the minors. This handicap is based strictly on going against Wade Miley. The Brewers pitcher has long been a fringe starter simply because he pitches from the left side. If he had been a righty he would have been out of baseball years ago. He has 206 career innings with a 4.31 ERA and a 1.39 WHIP. IN 2017 his ERA was 5.61 with a WHIP of 1.73. In 2016 his ERA was 6.17 with a WHIP of 1.57. In 29.1 innings of work this season he has a 1.53 ERA with a 1.19 WHIP. Do we trust a 200 inning career or 29 innings this season? If you have followed our work for any time I believe you know the answer to that. Small sample sizes get the novice better excited, but a veteran capper knows how to take advantage of blips on the radar.

Our numbers give Gay a whopping 53% advantage over Miley. Milwaukee does have a 6% bullpen edge, and a 7% hitting advantage. But those numbers cannot even come close to the starter advantage for the Rockies, who actually hit league average on the road vs lefties.

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919 Los Angeles Angels at Cleveland

Barria & Clevinger

Word out of LA is that Mike Trout is questionable tonight which is why this line is so high. Questionable means there is a 75% chance he plays, but the line is saying he won’t. Even if he doesn’t suit up we are still getting quite a bargain in this price. 

Cleveland does have a 9% starter advantage here and a solid bullpen edge. But the Angels have a 9% hitting advantage here as LA is 15% better than league average against right-handed starters on the road. 

Interesting numbers from Mike Clevinger as he pitches much better on the road than at Progressive Field. This year he has a 4.26 ERA at home compared to a 2.69 ERA on the road. At home he has a 1.31 WHIP and is allowing opponents to hit .270 against him. Last year he had a 3.79 ERA at home compared to a 2.45 ERA away. His WHIP was 1.35 at home and he let opponents hit 46 points better here than on the road. 

The Indians are 7-5 since the All-Star break but have faced a very easy schedule of Minnesota, Detroit, Pittsburgh and Texas. The Tribe doesn’t deserve to be a favorite of this magnitude.

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952 Colorado at St Louis

Senzatela & Mikolas

Pretty simple handicap here as we rate Mikolas with a massive 35% starting pitching advantage in this one. That number doesn’t even consider the home/road dichotomy of these two starters. Senzatela has an ERA over 7 on the road this year, although his advanced numbers are better than that. But Mikolas has a 2.09 ERA at home to go along with a 1.01 WHIP. He’s a perfect 6-0 in day games. While the Colorado bullpen is 7% better, the Cardinals own a 5% hitting advantage against the Rockies. 

PLAY ST LOUIS

953 NY Mets at Washington

Matz & Roark

This contest is very similar to our play on the Orioles with Bundy the other day. We have a pitcher that has struggled his last three starts, while everyone is ignoring the larger sample size. Steven Matz has allowed 12 earned runs in his last 17.1 innings. This is opposed to his solid 3.79 ERA on the season. Matz has really struggled at Shea Stadium the past three years with a 5-13 record, 1-9 the past two years. We are getting his one the road, off three poor outings, at an inflated price. 

Tanner Roark is coming off his best start of the season, eight shutout innings with an 11-1 strikeout to walk ratio. But that game was pitched in Milwaukee. He’s been dreadful at home the last two years. He’s 2-6 with a 5.98 ERA here this year, and 6-6 with a 5.04 ERA last year. Let’s grab the nicely priced underdog as the Nationals continue to underperform.

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907 San Francisco at San Diego

Holland & Lauer

A couple of mediocre lefties take the hill for these two western squads on Monday. Holland has been downright terrible the two previous years, but he’s been very productive for the Giants this season. It looked like his best years were far behind him when he pitched quality ball for the Rangers. But he’s starting to resemble himself from those years. Because he has been bad for so long, he’s an afterthought in the betting marketplace. But that only gives us value tonight. We have Holland rated 14% better than Lauer. While San Diego did have a sizable bullpen edge, that’s gone now with Cimber and Hand being traded to Cleveland. Without them the bullpen has really struggled. With the offenses grading out equally, we can take advantage of the Padres recent struggles. As this team has really taken a step back the last month or so.

PLAY SAN FRANCISCO

968 Tampa Bay at Baltimore

Chirinos & Bundy

We love to play against overreactions and small sample sizes, and today we have a classic example. Yonny Chirinos is getting a chance to start again for the Rays. He’s been good this season but he hasn’t racked up many innings because of injury. We like his future but he can’t expect to go very long today. He opposes Dylan Bundy who is the established ace of this staff. But we are getting him and the O’s today in an underdog role based on his current form. In his last three starts he has been lit up for 15 earned runs in 12.1 innings of work. Thats a short sample size people overreact to. The time to play against Bundy was three games ago, not now when everyone and their brother a going against him. The buy market is screaming for the Orioles today and we take advantage. Sports betting is all about ebbs and flows. Selling high and buying low. We have these two starters rated virtually even. While the Rays do have a 12% better bullpen, the hitting advantage is all Orioles. Baltimore hits righties at home 17% better than the Rays hit righties on the road. We look for the Baltimore bats to do some pounding today.

PLAY BALTIMORE

902 Chicago at St Louis

Quintana & Mikolas

Very fair number here to back Miles Mikolas at home. He’s been dynamite on this mound all season with an amazing 1.99 ERA and 0.99 WHIP. Our numbers show him at 21% stronger than Quintana, while the bullpens are almost exactly rated even. St Louis does have a 5% offensive edge against lefties at home, compared to the Cubs road work against righties. We go against the public team here in a major rivalry game.

PLAY ST LOUIS

953 Philadelphia at Cincinnati

Pivetta & DeSciafani

Small sample sizes are our friend. When others overreact to recent form we step in and take advantage. It worked for us last night going against what had been the red hot Pirates, and we believe we have another edge to exploit here. Nick Pivetta has terrific stuff, he’s dominating in strikeouts per inning. But he as many young pitchers are deals with inconsistency. Others will look at his last three starts and see eight earned runs in 14.2 innings of work. Doing that against the light hitting Padres, Orioles and Pirates. But closer inspection shows an 18 to 3 strikeout to walk ratio in those games. In his last start after the All-Star Break he had 9 strikeouts without a walk against the Padres. We have the Phillies righty graded 24% stronger than Anthony DeSciafani. Along with sizable edges in the bullpen and offensively, the Phillies are a bargain on Friday.

PLAY PHILADELPHIA

903 NY Mets at Pittsburgh

Matz & Kingham

Great spot to go against the Pirates who had a long winning streak broken in Cleveland yesterday. In that game two of its red hot hitters were injured and unlikely to play today. Pittsburgh is basically a league average team who is coming off a nice run, but the Pirates have shown it can have a losing streak just as easily. The starting pitcher matchup favors the host slightly, but the Mets bullpen has the same small advantage. Neither team is in its preferred hitting situation. As the Mets are 9% below league average on the road against righties, while the Bucs are 7% below average at home vs lefties. If this game had been played two weeks ago Pittsburgh would have been a -120 favorite. Because of a recent two week stretch we are getting a great amount of value with the visitor.

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