901 NY Mets at Washington

This line is priced as though the Nationals were just dominating the competition as of late. But in reality since Brice Harper was injured this offense has not been nearly as effective. While the numbers show slight advantages to the host, the number on this game is really inflated. We grade the Nets with an 11% starting pitcher edge, a 4% bullpen advantage and a 2% defensive edge. Offensively we see 1% overall, 7% home/away with the Mets holding a 9% lefty/righty edge. Those numbers do not add up to an overwhelming favorite. Like yesterday with the Twins and Bartolo Colon we side with the high priced dog here.

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967 Minnesota at Toronto

Gotta hand it to Bartolo Colon. Overtime he’s about to be thrown out to pasture, he shows his remaining ability. That said we rate Haps 25% better than Colon in starting pitching. The bullpen edge is 3% in favor of the Twins, while defense goes to the Jays by 5%. Toronto also has a 6% overall offensive edge, and an 11% home/away advantage. The lefty/righty edge is exactly even. While the numbers show Toronto to be the clear favorite the line is simply too high to trust the Jays. The Twins have exceeded expectations all season and we always get value betting on Colon.

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906 LA Dodgers at Pittsburgh

Exciting ending for the Pirates last night likely to bring added enthusiasm to the game today. The Dodgers have a 4% edge in starting pitching, a 6% bullpen advantage and a 12% defensive edge. Offensively the teams are equal overall, with the Pirates having a slight 1% home/away edge along with a 4% lefty/righty advantage. This line is 30 cents too high in our opinion and we will take our chances with the home dog.

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979 Colorado at Kansas City

After blowing a great chance at the victory last night with the bases loaded and nobody out in the ninth, we will look for the Rockies to bounce back on Wednesday. We see advantages across the board which should make the visitor the favorite. WE rate Senzatela 21% better than Kennedy, the bullpen is 7% better and that was before the Royals closer went down with an injury yesterday. Colorado owns a 16% edge defensively as well. The hitting numbers are all virtually equal with an overall 2% Kansas City edge over our three categories. 

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956 Milwaukee at San Francisco

We’re not enamored with either starter here as we rate both below league average. Yet our numbers give Stratton an 11% edge over Davies. The bullpen edge is 13% for the Brewers while the Giants have a 13% defensive edge, as Milwaukee is 22% worse than league average defensively. The offensive numbers are almost exactly even with a 2% overall edge to the visitor, a 1% lefty/righty edge for the Brewers and a 1% Giants edge home and Away. San Francisco should be favored in this one.

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954 Miami at NY Mets

Much prefer the pitching and defense of the Mets here. We rate Montero 28% better than Worley, as he is finally starting to translate his minor league success to the majors. We are buying low on what was once the top pitching prospect in the Mets system. We show a 27% bullpen advantage and a 36% defensive edge. Miami has small advantages in hitting at 5% overall, 1% home/away and 6% lefty/righty. While the Marlins are playing quality ball the betting markets have given them too much credit.

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967 Kansas City at Oakland

Solid 12% edge in the starting pitching of Hammel over Smith. The bullpen also provides a 3% royals edge. Defensively KC is 5% better. Offensively the A’s own a 6% overall advantage with edges of 9% home/away and 3% lefty/righty. Chris Smith hasn’t shown us much and despite the high ERA we are a fan of Jason Hammel. We back the Royals here.

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972 Kansas City at Chicago

While Vargas was an All-Star this season and Holland has been considered a journeyman, our numbers only favor Vargas by 8%. The Royals also own the bullpen by 17% and the defense by 18%. But the Sox are the better hitting team by 7% overall, 10% home/away and 3% lefty/righty. The White Sox are an extremely young team right now but the organization is loaded with good young players. The kids don’t know they are supposed to lose and the team has played much better since getting rid of the big contracts. We ride the underdog here.

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907 Colorado at Miami

Nice pitching edge all around for the Rockies as Hoffman rates 29% better than Nicotine. The bullpen has a 10% advantage while defensively Colorado is 27% superior. The offensive edges go to the Marlins by 12%, 12% and 15% advantages. The Rockies are the clearly superior team based on year to date advanced stats. Can’t turn down this price.

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912 Cleveland at Tampa Bay

Danny Salazar is an elite starter when he is on, but when he is not he’s extremely hittable. Which makes backing him in a favorite role very dicey. Blake Snell was more highly touted but he has bounced from AAA to the majors in his short career. While the Indians have the better defense by 28% all the other numbers come out very even. The Tribe bullpen is better but Andrew Miller is on the shelf. We just can’t pass up the Rays in the home dog role here as Cleveland is overpriced.

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957 Miami at Atlanta

We like both these starting pitchers overall, but we rate Straily with a 2% edge. The bullpens are exactly even while the Braves own a 7% fielding advantage. All the hitting numbers favor the visitor by margins of 9% overall, 8% home/away and 9% lefty/righty. As much as we have been impressed by how well the Braves have exceeded expectations this year. the Marlins are the right side today.

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904 St Louis at Cincinnati

Simply can’t trust these Cardinals right now in the role of a road favorite. The hitting has disappointed all year. Mike Leake is having a good season but he’s pitching over his head this season. Asher Wojciechowski could end up being the best starter the Reds have sent out to the mound this year. Although in reality it’s not a hard statement to make as Cincinnati has had terrible pitching all year. We rate the Cincy starter with a 7% edge and the defense being 2% better. The cards match that same 2% edge in the bullpen. The hitting numbers all favor the host at 3% overall, 6% home/away and 1% lefty/righty. Nice payoff here for the Reds.

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925 Minnesota at San Diego

Prefer Ervin Santana who has been able to outperform his advanced stats all season. We rate him 5% better than Perdomo. The Padres own bullpen 18% and defense 7%. Hitting wise it’s pretty much a wash with the Twins winning by 1% overall and 13% lefty/righty, while the Padres have a 7% home/away edge. 

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977 Philadelphia at LA Angels

Big pitching advantage for the Phillies here in as much as we like to find value on Nolasco, Nola rates 22% better. The Angels own the bullpen by 15% and the defense by 8%. While the Angels sweep the hitting numbers at 9% overall, 12% home/away and 4% lefty/righty. We would much rather trust the red hot Nola to shut this Angels team down.

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901 Cincinnati at Miami

We’ve liked the poise Tim Adelman has brought in his young career with the Reds. We prefer him over Adam Conley by 2% in the starting pitcher matchup. The Reds have a 3% advantage in the bullpen and a 2% edge defensively. While the Marlins own all three offensive advantages the numbers are by just 5%, 9% and 2%. This game should be much closer lined to Miami -120. That gives us a nice overlay with the Reds.

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955 Milwaukee at Washington

Taking a shot on the dog here in what should be much closer to a pick ‘em contest. We rate Nelson 23% better than Gonzalez who is due for some major regression in his numbers. The defensive edge for the Brewers is 10% while the Nationals have an 8% bullpen edge. Offensively it’s about even with the Brewers winning the lefty/righty category by 9% and Washington up overall by 1% and 7% home/away. Nelson is finally putting it all together this season and we back the dog here after an impressive showing yesterday.

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918 Baltimore at Tampa Bay

In a near pick ‘em game we will side with the much better starter. We rate Faria a conservative 19% better than Miley, who’s advanced stats show he’s due for major regression. Faria has been terrific since entering the rotation and we look for a big bounce back from the young righty here. The fielding is virtually even and the Orioles own the better bullpen by 8%. Baltimore owns the better hitting by margins of 8% overall, 4% home/away and 13% lefty/righty. But the huge starting mismatch trumps those numbers.

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907 San Diego at San Francisco

Dinelson Lamet is the best no-name pitcher in baseball. Forget about his high era and look at his advanced stats. He’s blowing away the opposition with a strikeout rate that is elite. He should have a huge day here in this pitchers park against the struggling Giants bats. The numbers will show that we have a whopping 31% starting pitcher edge for the Padres. The bullpens also favor the visitor by 13%, along with a 14% defensive edge. The Giants own the hitting advantages of 13% overall, 20% home/away and 5% lefty/righty. We are getting the better all-around team at plus money.

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973 Chicago WS at Kansas City

Just too much value not to take the White Sox here. Pelfrey has actually pitched better than he has gotten credit for this season, while Vargas is starting to see regression in his out of this world stats from the first half of the year. While the Royals own the pitching and defensive stats by 21%, 12% and 24% this line is simply way too high. The hitting numbers show a 2% overall edge to KC, a 6% home/away advantage for the host, but a 5% lefty/righty advantage for the Sox. 

No doubt the Royals should be favored here, but this line is crazy. Nice underdog payoff on the White Sox.

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905 Miami at Cincinnati

Simply can’t trust Homer Bailey in the favorite role as he has been inconsistent since returning to the majors. He has been hit early and often and we believe the wrong team is favored here. Jose Urena has surpassed our expectations and he has become a solid addition to this Miami pitching staff. 

The overall numbers say this is a pick ‘em game but from what we have seen the Marlins should be favored.

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965 Detroit at Kansas City

Prefer the much better hitting Tigers here taking on a lefty. Detroit has a 10% edge in starting pitching and a 2% fielding advantage. The Royals do have the better bullpen by 4% but the closer left yesterday’s game with an injury.

The hitting is all Detroit with advantages of 13% overall, 7% home/away and a whopping 22% lefty/righty. Even with the recent trade of Martinez this Tigers lineup still hits lefties well.

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971 Detroit at Kansas City

The pitching edges all favor the host with a 4% advantage with Wood over Boyd and a 4% bullpen advantage. The defense also favors the Royals by 9%. But offensively it’s Detroit in a landslide. 16% overall, 11% home/away and a whopping 28% lefty/righty. The Tigers rake lefties and Travis Wood is serviceable at best. Nice overlay for the visitor.

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912 Colorado at NY Mets

The Rockies are in a complete free fall. After jumping out to a terrific start with a group of young contact pitchers, the regression has started to take place. 

We have Lugo rated 2% better than Chatwood and the Mets bullpen 9% better than Colorado. The teams are equal in fielding. All the offensive numbers favor the Mets. 9% edge overall, 12% home/away and 5% lefty/righty. New York is playing inspired ball while the Rockies are holding on by a thread. 

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964 San Francisco at San Diego

While the Giants own the 7% starting pitcher advantage in this one, we aren’t sold on Cueto. He’s already said he’s looking to leave the bay area and he just hasn’t had the same composure on the mound this season. Richard has far surpassed our expectations this year as he has been a very serviceable starter. The Padres have a huge advantage of 17% in the bullpen while the Giants own a 7% defensive edge. Offensively San Francisco is 5% better overall, 10% better lefty/righty but the Padres own a 1% home/away hitting edge. While the numbers are basically a wash the Padres come into the second half with a more forward looking outlook, as opposed to the Giants who have a veteran team with much higher expectations.

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970 Detroit at Cleveland

Strong pitching advantages across the board for the Tribe with a 5% edge on Clevenger over Verlander, a huge 22% bullpen advantage and a 17% defensive edge. Offensively the teams are a wash with just a 3% combined advantage for Cleveland.

But the major reason we like the Tribe today is that Justin Verlander has major problems against Cleveland. For two years he has talked about the Indians stealing his signs, and yet he hasn’t been able to make the needed adjustments. This year in 14.1 innings he’s allowed 18 earned runs. It’s in his head and it has affected his pitching.

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925 Milwaukee at NY Yankees

While we fully admit that the Yankees own the pitching and defense in this matchup, the Brewers bats make them a dangerous underdog. Montgomery rates 19% better than Guerra, and the relievers are 14% better. Defensively a 24% advantage goes to New York. But when taking a look at batting the Brewers have edges of 8% overall, 3% home/away and 14% lefty/righty. Milwaukee hits left-handers at a 16% better clip than league average. With this line being extremely high, coupled with how well the National League has played as of late, gives us a solid take on the Brewers.

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961 Toronto at NY Yankees

First game back from the DL for Sabathia who is actually having a pretty good season by his recent standards. But we usually like to go against a starter off the DL and this is a nice spot for the lefty raking Blue Jays. We rate Haps 5% better than CC with the defense rating even. The big edge for New York is in the bullpen with a 14% advantage. Offense is all Blue Jays with edges of 14% overall, 6% home/away and a whopping 24% lefty/righty. We expect Toronto to score early and often here.

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978 Seattle at LA Angels

While we have Paxton rated 19% better than Chavez, we feel the line in this game is just too high. The Angels own the better relief pitching by 13%. Seattle does own the remaining categories but not by substantial margins. We agree Seattle should be favored but in our projections LA gets this one done.

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906 Miami at Milwaukee

Tom Koehler returns to the rotation today knowing the opposition has scored on him 6 of his 8 starts this season. Playing from behind early is not the situation the Marlins want to be in. We rank Zach Davies 16% better than Koehler and the bullpen is 4% more successful. The Brewers have a whopping 15% defensive edge while the offense is pretty much a wash. Milwaukee is 2% better home/away while the Marlins hold a 1% advantage overall and a 7% edge lefty/righty. 

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975 Minnesota at Kansas City

Our numbers show Vargas with a 10% advantage over Santana. And the advanced analytics say Ervin Santana is due for regression. But we have watched a great number of his starts this year and we believe his work is somewhat sustainable. He doesn’t allow many baserunners and when he does walk a player it’s because in most cases he wants to face the next batter instead. We’re buying into Santana while most saber metrics frown on him.

KC has slight edges in the bullpen and defense of 4 and 6%. The hitting is all Twins at 9% overall, 14% home/away and 14% lefty/righty. In fact, Minnesota is 8% better than the MLB average against lefties.

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907 Milwaukee at Cincinnati

Homer Bailey hasn’t had the ability to stay healthy. Which he looked good against minor leaguers he struggled once again in his first big league start. We rate his mound opponent Jimmy Nelson a conservative 9% better than Bailey. While Cincinnati has a slight 4% bullpen edge, the Brewers are the better defensive team by 7%. The hitting numbers have the Reds favored by 6, 9 and 2% which isn’t even a modest difference. 

We believe much more in Milwaukee than the fading Reds and feel the wrong team is favored here.

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979 LA Dodgers at LA Angels

A clean sweep of the board here for the road team topped off by a 21% starting pitching advantage for Ryu over Meyer. The bullpen has a 5% edfe and an 11% advantage defensively. Offensively its all Dodgers with a 12% advantage overall, an 8% edge home/away and a 14% edge lefty/righty. The Dodgers have been the best team in baseball the past month and this line simply does not reflect that fact.

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910 Atlanta at San Diego

Advantages across the board for the Padres here. A 21% edge in starters and 24% in relief. A 15% defensive edge is also present. Offensively San Diego rates 8% better overall, 10% better home and away and 11% better lefty/righty. Atlanta is 15% worse than league average hitting on the road. The Padres sweep the board here by a combined 89% according to our numbers. That’s a huge edge in this price range.

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915 Texas at NY Yankees

Not sure the Yanks should be favored here based on the inconsistency of Tanaka. We rate Darvish 25% better which is a huge starting pitcher advantage. The Yankees biggest edge is in the bullpen with a 21% edge, but you have to have the lead to get to the best of the bullpen arms. Texas is the better defensive team by 9% and own the lefty/righty advantage by 3%. But the Yanks have an overall 3% offensive edge along with a home/away advantage of 9%. Overall we are getting the much better starter at plus money.

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909 Pittsburgh at Milwaukee

The only edge the Brewers have in this game by our numbers is a 1% advantage in starting pitchers. Neither man has been overly impressive thus far but we believe both Williams and Guerra are better than the numbers suggest.

All the other key capping categories all line up on the Pirates here. Bullpen 5%, defense 7%, overall offense 7%, home/away 3%, lefty/righty 11% advantage. 

With McCutchen showing signs of coming around the Pirates offense has started to take off. We like the Brewers team but the division fade has begun.

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969 Toronto at Texas

We rate Liriano 5% better than a league average starter, while Martinez is 23% worse than league average. That 28% edge is a key component tonight. Along with a 19% relief advantage and a 25% defensive edge points us clearly to the road team here.

The hitting numbers are really a wash with Toronto owning a 2% edge overall along with a 6% lefty/righty advantage. Texas does own a 2% home/away edge. Nice line to take advantage of on Tuesday.

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903 San Francisco at Atlanta

Major edges across the board for the Giants here while the line is short. Cueto rates 27% better than Dickey and the bullpen is 7% stronger. Defensively SF is 21% better. Hitting is all Giants with an 8% overall edge with 4% and 11% advantages in home/away and lefty/righty numbers. 

San Francisco has had terrible BABIP luck the last five games as opponents are posting an outrageous .455 BABIP number. Keep in mind league average is roughly .298. 

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929 St Louis at Baltimore

The Orioles continue to find ways to lose and today we get a chance to fade them at an excellent price. We grade Wainwright as 9% better than Miley who is due for some major regression when looking at the advanced stats. The bullpen is 21% better for the Cards and the defense 12% stronger. The offensive numbers are a wash as Baltimore has 1, 2 and 0% advantages across the board. 

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978 Kansas City at LA Angels

Our grades have Chavez 16% better than Kennedy with the bullpen being 15% better for the host. Defensively the Angels stand out with a 20% advantage. The hitting marks are very similar with the Angels having a 9% edge in home and away hitting as KC is 9% below league average on the road. 

LA has fared much better than we anticipated after Trout went down, look for another victory here.

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959 Miami at Atlanta

Like the pitching matchup of Straily over Newcomb as the Braves starter pitched a bit over his head in his MLB debut. We rate Straily 21% better as he is finally becoming an all around pitcher instead of a thrower which is what he came up as. Miami has a slight 3% relief pitching edge and a 5% defensive advantage. The Marlins are showing hitting edges of 5% overall, 1% home/away and 11% lefty/righty. The Braves are 7% below league average vs right handed starters. 

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904 Milwaukee at St Louis

Like both these starters but we rate Wacha 10% better than Davies. The Cards have the better bullpen by 14% and the better defense by 10%. The hitting also favors the host with a 12% overall edge, a 14% home/away advantage and a 12% lefty/righty edge. 

We are catching Milwaukee as the hitting is regressing and young players are getting a call up. Nice time to back the Cardinals.

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957 Chicago Cubs at New York Mets

We haven’t found any value this year backing the champs, but in this matchup the line is too short to pass up. Don’t read anything into the last Matt Harvey start as we watched it intently and he was very fortunate. That gives us a nice line here for taking advantage of a starter who is clearly not the same pitcher as he once was. The Cubs own the better offense with an 8% edge overall, a 6% home/away edge and a 4% lefty/righty advantage. While the Cubs have underperformed this year the talent surpasses that of the Mets. Good game to change the Cubs fortunes.

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904 Colorado at Pittsburgh

As much as we like this Rockies team it is playing way over its head when on the road. There is definite regression on the way. 

Pittsburgh has an 8% edge in the starters although both hurlers rate better than league average. Pittsburgh also owns a slight 2% edge in the bullpen which should get even better with the recent changes in the back end for the Pirates. The defenses rate almost identical. Offensively Pittsburgh has 15, 20 and 8% advantages in overall, home/away and lefty/righty hitting in this contest. 

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961 Seattle at Minnesota

While we are not very high on either starting pitcher our numbers have Gallardo 17% better than the young Mejia. The Seattle bullpen grads out 11% better while the defenses show a 12% Mariners edge. The offensive numbers come out to be a wash but Seattle hits lefties 11% better than league average. Wrong team favored here.

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980 Minnesota at San Francisco

As much as we like young Twins starter Berrios, the value is all on the side of the Giants here. A major starting pitcher edge along with an 11% relief advantage. A 33% defensive edge is key, along with 7, 8 and 3% offensive advantages across our three categories. 

Berrios has a bright future but he’s being overpriced in this contest with the veteran Samardzija.

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928 Kansas City at San Diego

While the Padres are clearly a lesser team this season, the Royals aren’t much better, especially offensively. We prefer the veteran Chacin over the rookie Skoglund by a 17% advantage. The Padres bullpen also shows a slight 3% edge, while defense shows a 13% edge for the host. When it comes to hitting San Diego has a 10% edge overall as Kansas City is 15% worse than league average. San Diego has a 12% advantage in home/away numbers and also a 12% edge in righty/lefty stats. 

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913 Toronto at Oakland

Cheap price for a club that has advantages in every area. Slight 5% advantage in starting pitchers. A 17% edge in the bullpen, 16% defensive advantage. Offensively Toronto wins out with 9, 6 and 8% edges in overall, home/away and lefty/righty numbers. 

Both pitchers are due for some solid regression based on xfip numbers. But we trust the Blue Jays offense to pull this one out.

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905 San Francisco at Milwaukee

31% starting pitching edge for the Giants. Jeff Samardzia has positive xfip indicators while Junior Guerra has been very fortunately with his ERA. The Giants also own a 4% edge in the bullpen and a 27% defensive advantage. Offensive edges are 4% overall, even in our home/away stats and 11% vs right handed starters. 

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916 NY Yankees at Toronto

Joe Biagini has been very impressive since making the jump to the starters role. We make him 10% better than league average starters. Jordan Montgomery has talent but he’s still 10% below league standards. The Jays have a slight 4% edge in the bullpen and a 13% advantage in the field. Offensively we see the Jays with 8, 10 and 6% advantages across the board. Toronto rakes against lefties at 12% above league average. 

Overall we feel the Yankees have been playing above its numbers all season while Toronto is now getting healthy. Don’t rule out Toronto winning this division. 

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973 Cleveland at Kansas City

Two similar pitchers take the mound today and we get to take advantage of some major regression. Tomlin had gotten off to a terrible start while Vargas was hot out of the gate. Now we get a very favorable line based on that perception. Tomlin has been much better as of late as he is rounding into form, while Vargas is starting to pitch more in line with his career numbers.

Our stats show Cleveland with a 20% edge at starter and 18% advantage in the bullpen. Hitting is all Cleveland with edges of  8, 6 and 9% across the board. Defense is also better with the Tribe by 17%. It’s rare we see a team sweep the entire board and are priced in this range. Let’s go Tribe!

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921 Detroit at Kansas City

Rare chance to get the Tigers and Verlander in this price range against a rookie starter. Detroit has a 27% edge in starting pitching and a 13% defensive edge. Offensively it’s all Tigers with a 14% overall along with 9% home/away and a whopping 21% lefty/righty advantage. The only edge the Royals have is in the bullpen where a 4% advantage goes to KC. Detroit has long raked against lefties and Verlander is 26-15 career vs Kansas City. 

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969 Tampa Bay at Texas

While Texas owns the better bullpen we prefer Ramirez over Perez. Martin Perez grades out as 12% below league average in our numbers. TB has a 3% defensive edge, while Texas has slim 5, 6 and 3% offensive advantages. Our numbers say the wrong team is favored here and we really like the way this Rays team is playing.

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905 Arizona at Milwaukee

The D’Backs have an 11% edge with Corbin over Nelson. The bullpen has a 6% advantage with a solid 15% edge defensively. Offensively Milwaukee has slight edges but Braun has just been put back on the DL which makes the offenses virtually even. 

Both teams have been surprises this year but we buy more into the Diamondbacks, at least until Milwaukee brings up some of its talented youngsters.

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961 St Louis at Colorado

Not sold on Kyle Freeland who is a pitch to contact hurler in a high run environment. He has been able to induce soft contact but we doubt that’s a sustainable attribute. We rate Wainwright at 27% better in the starting pitcher department. He’s 8-2 lifetime against the Rockies. The Cards defense is also 9% better in this contest. The hitting shows slight edges for the Cards, which puts us squarely on the road team here.

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980 LA Angels at Miami

Journeyman Vance Worley takes the hill for the host here and we rate him 3% worse than JC Ramirez. The Angels also have slight advantages in the bullpen and defensively. But that’s where the comparisons end for the Angels. Miami is 13% better offensively, 18% when considering home and away play, and 11% better against right handed starters. 

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925 Tampa Bay at Minnesota

Unheard of advantage in the starters as Archer grades out 18% above league average while Santiago comes in 34% worse than league average. A whopping 52% edge which could very well be the biggest of the season. While Minnesota does have hitting edges across the board it’s only by 7%, 9% and 3%. Not nearly enough to make up for the starting pitching. 

Despite a 25-25 record on the season the Rays have led in 228 innings and trailed in only 149 innings. Compare that to the World Champion Cubs who are at 180-178. Tampa Bay is a team under the radar that we can make good money on.

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904 NY Mets at Pittsburgh

Can’t trust the Mets right now especially in the favorite role. Pittsburgh is starting to wake up a bit and are a value play tonight as a home dog. While the pitching edges here belong to the visitor, the offense is all Pittsburgh. A 12% overall advantage for the Pirates, 17% home/away edge and 8% lefty/righty advantage for the host. Too much value on a home underdog to let this one pass us by.

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959 Arizona at Milwaukee

23% starting pitching advantage for Robbie Ray here. The Diamondbacks also have slight edges in the bullpen, and fielding is a whopping 22% edge for the visitor. Offensively Milwaukee pulls ahead with a 12% lefty/righty advantage. 

There are two surprise teams out of the gate but we believe the Arizona success is more sustainable.

PLAY ARIZONA 

901 Colorado at Philadelphia

The Rockies were good to us yesterday and the matchups favor them again on Wednesday. Our numbers have Chatwood 18% better than Hellickson who is pitching over his head this year. The bullpen shows a 10% edge for the visitor and a whopping 23% defensive edge for Colorado. Offensively the two teams are virtually equal like the handicap for yesterday. We especially like that the Phillies hit righties 10% lower than league average.

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953 Colorado at Philadelphia

Major starting pitcher edge here as Marquez rates 23% better than the very mediocre at best Zach Eflin. The bullpen numbers also show a nice 11 point advantage for the Rockies. Defensively Colorado dominates the Phils grading out at 10% above league average, while Philadelphia comes in 18% worse than a league average ball club. The offensive numbers come out virtually even, which gives us a major overlay on the visitor.

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906 Philadelphia at Pittsburgh

Trying the Pirates again today after dropping our play on the Bucs yesterday. The starting pitchers are exactly even at 13% better than league average. Defensively Pittsburgh is 9% better than the Phils. The Pittsburgh bullpen rates as 10% stronger as well. The big advantage is offensively where the Pirates grade out 20% better overall and 24% better home vs away for the Phils. Add in the 15% better hitting vs right handed starters and we come right back with the Pirates on Saturday.

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966 Toronto at Baltimore

The pitching an defensive numbers slightly favor the Blue Jays here by 6, 3 and 6%. But the hitting is all Orioles. Baltimore is 21% stronger offensively overall, with a 24% home/away advantage as Toronto is 12% below league average when hitting on the road. The O’s also have a 17% edge hitting against righties. 

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954 Philadelphia at Pittsburgh

While the starting pitcher edge is slight with Philadelphia and Hellickson, the other key areas all belong to the host. The Pirate bullpen is 6% better than that of the Phillies, and the defensive edge is also 6% better. But it’s the hitting that makes the Pirates the play here. Offensively Pittsburgh has a 20% advantage overall, with a whopping 24% edge when breaking down the Phillies poor hitting on the road and the Pirates 12% better than league average hitting at home. Against righties the Bucs also hold a 15% advantage as Philly hits righties 10% worse than league average.

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921 Atlanta at Toronto

The Braves pounded the Jays pitching last night, which shortens the Blue Jays relief corps tonight. In researching the numbers we can’t help but find value on the road dog here. When looking across the board every edge in minimal between these two, with a 3% edge in starting pitching being the biggest discrepancy in the contest. With both teams grading out virtually equal, we will back the Braves at a nice plus number.

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958 Tampa Bay at Cleveland

Carlos Carrasco has been on quite a roll and the price seems like a bargain with the Tribe on Monday. The bullpen edge is a whopping 32% between these teams and 18% defensively. Cleveland also hits 9% better than league average at home. Add it all up and we see the Rays struggling to put anything on the board against the Tribe.

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909 LA Dodgers at Colorado

While Senzatela has gotten a great deal of acclaim for his fast start, he is pitching way over his head. We have Urias rated 20% better than the young Rockies righty. LA is 22% better defensively and owns a 9% offensive edge. Big advantage for the Dodgers here is that it hits righties 10% better than league average, while the Rockies are 3% below average against lefties. 

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916 Oakland at Texas

Not a big fan of Kendall Gravemen as he is rated 13% worse than a league average starter. Texas is the better defensive team by 13% as well. Offensively the Rangers have a 15% edge on the A’s overall and 18% based on location. Texas also hits right-handed starters 13% better than Oakland. Add it all up with an 8% edge at starting pitcher and we lay it with the host.

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971 Baltimore at Kansas City

Second start for Tillman off the DL and he fared really well first time out. Facing the light hitting Royals should continue that success. Even without its closer the O’s have the superior relief corps. Offensively Baltimore has a 6% edge on the Royals and against right handed starters a whopping 10% advantage. 

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924 Oakland at Texas

Our numbers have Jesse Hahn rated 30% worse than an average mob starter. While Cashner isn’t much better, the edge is slightly with the host. Texas is the better defensive team by 15% in this contest. When looking offensively Texas has a 15% advantage overall, 18% at home and 13% vs right handed starters. This line should be significantly higher than the markets show.

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968 Boston at Milwaukee

Like the matchup here for the hometown Brewers who hit lefties 5% better than league average. The Sox struggle on the road at 5% worse than league average offensively. The starters edge for Boston is minimal which doesn’t coincide with the price. Our numbers say this line should be even so we take advantage of the plus price.

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920 Texas at San Diego

We’ve never thought much of Nick Martinez and if the Rangers weren’t battling injuries he wouldn’t be on the mound here. We have him rated 27% worse than league average. Texas is 10% below league average in road hitting, while the Padres a slightly above average at home. We won’t be backing San Diego very much this year in the favorites role, but this is an exception facing a weak starter for the Rangers.

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980 New York Yankees at Chicago Cubs

We don’t normally see this type of value in a nationally televised contest. But the Yankees have been the talk of baseball this season. Young players across the roster have been outperforming expectations, which gives us quite an edge here. We much prefer Lester over Severino and the Cubs lefty has been virtually unbeatable at home. Despite the back end of the Yankee bullpen, the Cubs are loaded through out the relieving corps. Offensively Chicago is 20% better than the Yankees and vs lefty/righty matchups the Cubs have a 24% edge.

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904 Milwaukee at Pittsburgh

Major pitching advantage for the Bucs here as Cole ranks 11% above average while Garza comes in 13% below league average. The Pirate offense has a 17% edge over the Brewers which increases to 19% when factoring in the location. The Pirates also hit righties at a 16% clip better than Milwaukee.

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970 Boston at Minnesota

Could be a letdown situation for the Sox here off that controversial series with the Orioles. Especially against what has been a weak Twins team the last few years. But this Minnesota squad is playing much better ball this season and actually has a dangerous offense at times.

Our numbers say this game should be a coin flip with any edges being minor on either side. We will gladly take the plus money here on a Twins team that can take advantage of a preoccupied favorite.

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979 Miami at Tampa Bay

While Tampa and Blake Snell have the starting pitcher edge, Snell hasn’t really lived up to his high expectations. Miami has the clearly better offense by 8% in this contest as well as an 8% edge against lefty starters. In fact, Miami is 11% better against southpaws than league average. Adam Conley doesn’t strike out enough batters in our eyes, but he doesn’t deserve to be this big of underdog to the Rays.

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921 Chicago White Sox at Kansas City

Wrong team favored here at Chicago has massive edges across the board. While the starting pitching matchup is virtually even, the Sox have clear advantages in the bullpen. The White Sox have been outstanding all year in relief and have a 25% edge on this mediocre Royal staff. The Sox also rank against lefties at 5% above league average while the Royals struggle against left-handed starters. Add it all up and we get plus money on the better all-around team tonight.

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917 Baltimore at NY Yankees

Wrong team favored here by our numbers. The main reason is how the Orioles rake against lefties, 10% above league average. That opens up this entire field for big power numbers, and the Orioles are a classic swing for the fences team. We look for Baltimore to have a big offensive day against an inexperienced Jordan Montgomery on the Yanks.

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972 LA Angels at Texas

We normally don’t like to release plays that are in this price range. But in this case the line is simply too short. Every edge in this game is with the Rangers. A 32% edge at starting pitcher, 14% edge in the bullpen, the defense has a whopping 23% advantage, 21% offensively and 15% when breaking it down home & away. Simply put we are getting a $2 favorite at a very cheap price.

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927 Minnesota at Kansas City

While the starter edge is clear for the host, Minnesota is the right side winner in this contest. Offensively the Twins are head and shoulders better than the feeble hitting Royals. There is a 6% advantage in home/away stats, as well as a whopping 12% advantage vs righties. Minnesota is 7% better than league average where KC is 5% below vs right handed starters. The Twins also own edges defensively and in the bullpen. Wrong team favored here. 

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924 Minnesota at Texas

Huge advantage in the starting pitchers here as we have Hector Santiago rated 25% worse than an average major league starter. Hamels on the other hand is 13% better than league average. The bullpen also is a solid edge for the Rangers, as well as a significant edge defensively. While Minnesota hits lefties 7% better than league average it’s not enough to make up for the substantial edges across the board for Texas.

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971 Seattle at Detroit

Much prefer King Felix here as he has pitched much better this season than many projected. While his velocity is down he has turned into a pitcher rather than a thrower. Zimmerman has been a bust since coming to Detroit and that Tiger bullpen is in shambles. Throw in the fact that Seattle is much better defensively and the Tigers are without future Hall of Famer Miguel Cabrera. Seattle hits 7% better than league average against righties, while the Tigers are 4% below average against right handed starters. 

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911 San Francisco at Colorado

Like the pitching matchup here for the Giants as Moore rates 7% better than Senzatel. The Rockies are also a poor hitting team vs lefties at 10% below league average. The Giants hit righties 5% better than average and we prefer the San Francisco defense.

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977 Seattle at Oakland

Nice underdog price for the Mariners here who hit 11% better than league average against lefties, while the A’s hit righties 7% below league standards. Overall Seattle offensively has a 13% edge over Oakland and we have these starters rated virtually even. A nice plus price in a game that should be lined closer to pick ‘em.

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973 Detroit at Minnesota

Verlander was pounded last time out by the Indians, a team that has had his number of the years. In fact, there were rumors that he was tipping his pitches, which the Tigers denied. Detroit simply pound left handed pitching at a whopping 22% better than league average. And we don’t think much of Hector Santiago anyway. Huge offensive edge here for the Tigers with an ace on the mound.

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979 San Francisco at Kansas City

Rare opportunity to gran Mad Bum at a decent price. Kansas City struggles against lefties producing 8% less than average. Now it’s facing one of the elite southpaws in baseball. The Royals also are 5% worse hitting at home than league average. 

San Francisco has gotten off to a slow start which keeps this line in a positive range. Vargas doesn’t overpower the opposition so the Giants should hit him well.

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926 Baltimore at Cincinnati

While the Orioles have the starting pitcher edge in this one, the teams are equal across the board in every other handicapping method. Keep in mind the Orioles are without its closer which limits the bullpen edge. 

Baltimore has gotten off to a great start because of an extremely high and non-sustainable home run to flyable ratio. The O’s will also be without a DH here which really hurts this big slugging team.

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913 Chicago White Sox at New York Yankees

While Severino was highly touted he hasn’t lived up to the hype in the early going. Here we are getting the #4 starter for the Yanks against the #2 starter for the Sox, and yet New York is a prohibitive favorite. 

We make this line much lower than the current markets, and are willing to back a White Sox team who are much closer in talent to the Yankees than the betting markets show.

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920 LA Angels at Kansas City

Limited analysis today because of travel restrictions.

While many are believers in Tyler Skaggs we aren’t one of them. He does have potential but he’s currently overrated.

Ian Kennedy is the perfect fit for this ballpark. As a fly ball pitcher he isn’t worried about being beat with the long ball at home. Kansas City, like Cleveland has been in a terrible slump with runners in scoring position. The Tribe broke out of that in a big way yesterday, we see the same for the Royals. Let’s get ahead of the curve and back KC at a bargain price.

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909 Atlanta at Miami

Backing the much better starter here at an underdog price. Jaime Garcia is usually an afterthought when ranking MLB starters. Not because of his ability, but because of his health. When fully healthy we have Garcia rated 8% higher than league average. His counterpart Tom Koehler is 16% worse than league average. While the Braves hit better at home than on the road, Miami is an average hitting team in this building. The Braves has a sizable defensive edge as well which puts us squarely on the dog here.

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917 Houston at Seattle

The Astros have won 12 of the last 17 in this series, including 5 of the last 7 in Seattle. While James Paxton is a quality starter we really like what Charlie Morton has done when healthy. He was getting rave reviews last year and in spring training the positives continued. Now if he could just stay healthy. The Astros have the superior bullpen and the team really excels against left-handed pitchers. Producing 15% better than league average against southpaws. We have the Astros as the slight favorite here and the markets make them the underdog.

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903 Washington at Philadelphia

While the starting pitching advantage is all Phillies we believe the Nationals hold plenty of value here. Washington has the better bullpen and the far better offensive team. In fact Washington is 7% better than league average against righties, while the Phillies are 9% worse against right handed starters. 

Guthrie pitched in the World Baseball Classic, so he’s already been involved in competitive baseball this season. While Nola has a bright future he is being overrated in the betting marketplace.

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955 Los Angeles at Colorado

Major advantages across the board here for the visitor. Huge advantage at starting pitcher as Freeland was unimpressive in the minors and we have him rated as one of the worst starters in baseball this season. The Dodgers own the much better defense as well as a major edge in the bullpen. LA hits lefties 11% better than league average, while the Rockies are 4% below average against left handed starters. The line has risen in this game but there remains solid value.

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910 New York at Tampa Bay

Going against the popular Yankees tonight with veteran CC Sabathia on the hill. While the big man had what you could consider a comeback year a season ago it’s still below standards for a number two starter. We much prefer the up and coming Odorizzi who rates higher than CC in our ratings. While the Yankees have the better bullpen as a whole, the main reason is the eighth and ninth inning specialists. Nw York will have a hard time getting to those two with a putrid long and middle relief corps.

Tampa improved its offense this year and despite not having much of a home field advantage we like the Rays here.

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973 Pittsburgh Boston

We expect a big bounce back year for the Pirates and are one of our season win wagers towards the over. The Pirates hit righties well and Porcello enters this season at an all time high in expectations. He won the Cy Young Award last year but a lot of the reason for his outstanding win/loss record was the runs the Sox scored in his starts. While the Sox are always dangerous at home, this line should be much smaller. The Pirates have something to prove this year and it starts in this opening series at Boston.

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904 Chicago at St Louis

Huge rivalry game to start the season between two legendary clubs. Chicago is taking the field off winning the World Series, while the Cardinals look to bounce back from a disappointing year.

While the Cubs are still the team to beat in baseball this year we expect quite a bit of regression. The defense was legendary last year as we can’t expect anything in that order this season. Chicago was also extremely healthy in the starting rotation. 

St Louis shored up its outfield defense as Dexter Fowler leaves the Cubs to put on a Cards uniform. While St Louis doesn’t have the starting rotation the Cubs do, we really like Martinez who goes today. 

Lester was unbelievable at home last year, while only very good on the road. The emotion will all be on the host here as the Cards look to bring down the Cubbies. Keep in mind last year Chicago owned just a 10-9 record in this series, as the Cards played them better than anyone in baseball. 

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901 Cleveland at Chicago

While we love Kyle Hendricks and the job he has done all season, the betting value is all on the Indians. Josh Tomlin is unflappable and pitching in this environment will not affect him. He’s very similar to Corey Kluber in that he has excellent control and rarely walks a batter. With the Cubs being a very patient team they will have their hands full with Tomlin and the rested Cleveland bullpen. Too much value not to take the Tribe.

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907 New York at Miami

Surprised by the low line in this one as Lugo has been excellent for the Mets since his promotion. With New York holding on to a wild card spot and Miami playing out the string we see value in the visitor. Especially when you consider the emotional state of the Marlins. After the terrible tragedy of Jose Fernandez the team rallied around his memory in the first game back to action. Now after its all settled in the team played lackluster yesterday. We expect more of the same on Wednesday.

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975 Texas at Seattle

The Rangers have owned the Mariners this year and you could see by the looks of the Seattle players in the last series that they are defeated. Camels is in the prime of his career while King Felix has started to slide. He no longer is a power pitcher and he must get by with his years of guile. We have a confident bunch here on a mission with the better starter on the mound. No need to complicate the situation past that.

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903 Arizona at San Francisco

Shelby Miller returns to the club after having a terrible season before being sent down. He’s a much better pitcher than he has shown this year and we expect a rebound. It’s even better from a betting standpoint as most of the general public has written him off. But this handicap is more of a play against Matt Moore who threw a career high 133 pitches trying to throw a no-hitter last time out. He really labored hard the last couple innings of that start and it’s sure to affect him here.

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956 San Diego at Atlanta

Huge starting pitching edge here for the Braves as Julio Teheran runs circles around Edwin Jackson. Jackson did pitch well in his first few returning starts but has been pummeled since. The Braves have the far superior defense, one of the biggest advantages you will ever find. San Diego is extremely poor offensively when taking to the road. A huge dichotomy with the way San Diego hits at home. Atlanta also hits righties much better than the Padres. 

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