904 Miami at NY Mets

Jose Fernandez pitches lights out at home as he is nearly unbeatable, but the same cannot be said when he travels. For some reason he’s just not the same pitcher. Good but not nearly as great. The Marlins also don’t hit nearly as well away from home.

Rafael Montego was the prized pitching prospect just a couple years ago. He had a taste of the majors but never showed his potential. Now getting a spot start as an afterthought we see extreme value on this young righty. The Mets own the better bullpen, stronger defense and hit well at home. 

PLAY NEW YORK METS

961 Cincinnati at Arizona

On a nice little run here after cashing 8 of 9, let’s keep things going with the underrated Cincinnati Reds. While we never like to bet on a hurler named Homer we will make an exception on Sunday. Since coming off the DL Bailey has been better than expected, and his teammates are knocking the cover off the ball. Cincinnati owns the better relief pitching which has been a main reason this Reds squad has gone under the radar. 

Archie Bradley was highly thought of in the minors but he’s yet to put it all together at the major league level. Money is coming in on the visitor and we firmly agree with this line move.

PLAY CINCINNATI

904 Chicago at Los Angeles

Very cheap price here on the Dodgers at home with a rejuvenated Julio Urias. The youngster struggled out of the gate when first brought up to the Big Show, but has settled down nicely since. He’s been more consistent as of late and he’s really coming into his own. After blowing a late lead yesterday we are very confident of a rebound tonight from the Dodgers.

PLAY LOS ANGELES

957 Pittsburgh at Milwaukee

It’s well publicized that the Pirates have struggled over the years in Milwaukee. But we are willing to buck history with the better team here. The Pirates have a slight edge among starters but have huge advantages offensively. Pittsburgh also hits righties very well on the road, while the Brewers have struggled here against right handed starters.

PLAY PITTSBURGH

905 Atlanta at Arizona

Matt Wisler returns to the starters role here on Thursday to take on the always inconsistent Diamondbacks. While Arizona does have a bit of an edge between starters, the rest of the intangibles are virtually even. Atlanta is playing much better ball than earlier in the season and the line on this game is much higher than we anticipated. Dogs in this range have been good to us as of late and witnessed by the Orioles yesterday. Let’s take the shot with the dog here who has plenty of bite.

PLAY ATLANTA

973 Baltimore at Washington

Nice value here on the Orioles who hit righties very well. This is a rival series that means more to the Orioles who lost fans when Washington was given a new franchise. We will gladly take an American League team in this price range in an interleague contest. The teams are matched up pretty evenly and yet the price is a real bargain for the visitor.

PLAY BALTIMORE

929 Philadelphia at Chicago

Jake Thompson is another in a long line of talented starters making his way up to the majors this year with the Phillies. While his counterparts have gotten plenty of accolades at this level it wouldn’t surprise to see Thompson being the ace for years to come.

Carlos Rodon was considered a stud before joining the big league club, but it hasn’t been easy going for the lefty. While he has shown glimpses Rodon hasn’t put it all together as of yet.

We will back the visitor here as we rate these to clubs similar and the tariff is quite high on the host.

PLAY PHILADELPHIA

961 Cleveland at Oakland

Carlos Carrasco really showed us something last time out as it was clear he didn’t really have his stuff. But yet he continued to fight throughout the game and give his team a chance for victory. That’s exactly what Carrasco and Kluber bring to this Indians team. The Indians own a huge defensive edge in this game, one of the largest of the season. While many will point to a large starting edge for the Tribe, it’s the bullpen which we feel is just as big of an advantage.

PLAY CLEVELAND

Computer problems on Sunday so no analysis given, sorry.

906 Washington at Atlanta

PLAY ATLANTA

922 Toronto at Cleveland

The Indians rake against lefties and here they take on Francisco Liriano having a terrible year and switching leagues. The Indians have been very dangerous at home all season and are a confident bunch in this building. Off a solid come from behind win last night over the White Sox we look for the Tribe to ride that wave again tonight.

PLAY CLEVELAND

902 Miami at Cincinnati

The loss of Stanton for the remainder of the season is a huge blow to this Marlins club that had a real chance of a strong run towards the playoffs. While the team is used to him and his injury past the rest of the roster lacks that powerful threat. David Phelps gets the spot start here we we can’t expect more than five innings here, that puts the pressure on a bullpen that has logged a great amount of innings as of late. 

Finnegan is a much better pitcher now than early in the season. He should fare well against a Miami team that struggles to hit on the road. Cincy has been a real money maker as of late, no reason why that can’t continue.

PLAY CINCINNATI

913 Tampa Bay at NY Yankees

After all the excitement with yesterdays final game for Alex Rodriguez, we don’t expect the home crowd to be quite as electric here. While Tanaka is an excellent starter his strikeout numbers are nowhere near where they were before his injury.  The bullpen is also way down after letting the 8th and 9th inning lockdown relievers go. 

Tampa has the better defense and Matt Andriese is a solid starter. Tampa has hit righties well and we expect this game to go to the more complete Rays.

PLAY TAMPA BAY

956 San Diego at Pittsburgh

Huge edges here for the homesteading Pirates. Pittsburgh hits righties much better than do the Padres. The Pirates are a terrific hitting team at home while the Padres struggle scoring on the road. Pittsburgh owns the better defense and the much better bullpen. So it all comes down to the starters.

While Ryan Vogelsong isn’t a starter we will back often in the favorite role, we do so here with a play against Edwin Jackson. Jackson is a retread who has never came close to living up to his potential. He has bounced around the league for a decade and continues to be released. Because of a couple of decent starters with the Padres we get tremendous advantage going against him today. We don’t normally lay these type of numbers but we simply cannot pass on the value.

PLAY PITTSBURGH

(923) Detroit at (924) Seattle

Play: Detroit Tigers

Significant starting pitcher edge for the Tigers here, as LeBlanc is clearly the weakest link in the Mariners rotation. Detroit is the better hitting team, especially on the road. The Tigers have a massive edge as they absolutely kill left handed starters. Seattle has the better bullpen but that’s not enough to even this contest up.

PLAY DETROIT TIGERS

953 Atlanta at Milwaukee

Whalen struggled out of the gate in his first start but settled down as the game went on. He’s a talented starter that the Braves feel will be in intricate part of its future. 

Milwaukee can’t be trusted as a favorite of this magnitude and the Braves are hitting the ball really well with the addition of Kemp from the Padres. Milwaukee struggles against righties which gives us an additional edge with the dog.

PLAY ATLANTA

924 LA Angels at Seattle

Cheap price here for the homesteading Mariners. There is a slight edge on the mound with the starters and LA hits lefties well, but it’s not enough of an edge to look that way. Seattle hits much better at home and this bullpen totally dominates the Angels. Seattle based on recent roster moves is setting up this bullpen to be elite. Mariners are the better team and we get them here at a very cheap price.

PLAY SEATTLE

930 Boston at Los Angeles

Cheap number for the Dodgers playing at home. LA hits far better in this park than Boston does on the road, and without the DH that means no Big Papi for the visitor. Despite the season Steven Wright is having we prefer Kasmir on the hill. The bullpen edge for the Dodgers is huge and LA plays the better defense. Boston coming off an extra inning game and traveling sure doesn’t help their cause.

PLAY LOS ANGELES DODGERS

Texas at Baltimore

AJ Griffin is an underpriced commodity based on his injury history, missing 2014 and 2015. Did you know his career record is 25-12? He doesn’t blow you away with amazing strikeout numbers, he’s just a solid MLB pitcher, and that’s not sexy

Wade Miley is making his first start since being traded to the Orioles. He is 1-6 in his last 7 games started and pitching in this building isn’t as easy as pitching in the AL West. His ERA has gotten higher each of the last three seasons while his K/9 ratio has dropped. Texas as a team is hitting .306 against him this year and .302 last year.

PLAY TEXAS

920 Chicago at Detroit

Strength on strength here as the Tigers pound left handed starters and Cris Sale is an elite starting pitcher. Sale hasn’t been nearly as dominant as he was out of the gate, yet he’s still being priced too high in our opinion. 

Michael Fulmer has been everything as advertised and more for Detroit. He has become the most consistent and best starter on the staff. The Tigers edges offensively put this game on our card as we expect the dominant pitcher to be wearing a Tiger’s uniform on Wednesday.

PLAY DETROIT

961 Washington at Arizona

It was batting practice for the Nationals yesterday, and we like that situation. The Arizona bullpen is poor and there was a lot of pitches thrown by that bullpen last night. That puts a great deal of pressure on Robbie Ray. Washington is 66-26 as a favorite after having 12 or more hits, and they love hitting lefties.

PLAY WASHINGTON

904 Philadelphia at Atlanta

Decent pitching edge here for the Braves as we prefer Teheran over Hellickson. Philadelphia is a poor hitting team on the road and it struggles against righties. Hellickson is on the trade block right now so it’s possible the Philadelphia management will extend his time on the mound even if he’s not pitching well.

PLAY ATLANTA

971 Houston at Detroit

The Astros have improved all season as the young studs are finally playing up to expectations. The addition of Bergman brings added excitement in the Astros clubhouse and this team is playing very confidently at this time of the season. McHugh is a big starting advantage over Boyd and the Astros have the much better bullpen. Houston hits well against lefties and should knock the young southpaw around. 

PLAY HOUSTON

959 Detroit at Boston

Huge pitching edge here for the Tigers as Michael Fulmer has not only been outstanding, but consistent as well. The same cannot be said of his mound counterpart Eduardo Rodriquez. When ER was brought up last season he was terrific, but as the season unfolded and again this year he has struggled. Lefties have a solid edge the first time around the league but when teams get film on him he needs to make adjustments, Eduardo has yet to make those adjustments.

The Tigers knock lefties around really well and the Boston bullpen has been a disappointment because of overuse. 

PLAY DETROIT

919 Colorado at Baltimore

When taking a sizable underdog you go into the game knowing you are at a disadvantage. But the disadvantage in this game simply does not add up to this humongous line. The pitching matchup when counting in the relievers is at best a wash. That puts all the emphasis on the Orioles offense against the Rockies hitters. While Baltimore is better there is no way the advantage is as high as the betting markets. We are getting a major advantage in the line and that’s how a pro grinds out advantages. 

PLAY COLORADO

961 Oakland at Texas

Sizable starting pitching edge for the A’s here as Perez in this price range is a go against starter. While Texas owns the relief pitching edge its certainly not enough to make up for the starting pitching disadvantage. Oakland hits lefties well while Texas is basically average teeing off against right handed starters. Nice value here on the underdog.

PLAY OAKLAND

905 Arizona at Cincinnati

Another chance to go against the Reds in the role of a favorite. Arizona has the edge from a starter perspective and the D’Backs are virtually even in all other handicapping numbers.SportsDataBase.com shows us that Cincinnati is 81-141 with a negative ROI of 17.4% when playing a team with a better record. That ROI jumps to 32.6% if the Reds are playing at home.PLAY ARIZONA

922 Baltimore at NY Yankees

The Yanks were good to us last night and we really like the situation they are in again on Wednesday. Huge pitching advantage for the Yankees not only in the starter but also in the bullpen. New York also has the much better defensive play, with the O’s having the slightly better lefty/righty bats in this contest. 

Pineda’s numbers are not a reflection of the way he has pitched this year. Bad luck has been a major problem as his high BABIP is simply non-sustainable. According to SportsDataBase.com the Orioles are8-31 with a negative 55.7% ROI as a road dog off a road game when playing a team with a worse record. Now 4-14 in that role this season. Baltimore is also 28-64 for a negative 31.9% ROI off a road game in which it lost by 5 or more runs. We simply do not trust Gallardo here and the front end of this Baltimore bullpen.

PLAY NEW YORK YANKEES

964 Baltimore at NY Yankees

Solid starting pitcher edge for the host as Eovaldi is a much better pitcher than his traditional numbers show. The bullpen is a huge edge, especially if this game becomes a high scoring affair. New York has the far better defensive numbers, but Baltimore is the better hitting team. According to our friends at SportsDataBase.com the Orioles are 8-30 as a road dog after a road game when playing a team with a worse record. That’s a whopping 54.5% ROI going against the Birds.

PLAY NEW YORK YANKEES

921 Tampa Bay at Colorado

Contrarian play at its finest here as nobody wants any part of Drew Smyly pitching in altitude. But a closer look at his advanced stats show he has pitched much better than his numbers. A poor BABIP and an extremely high HR to FB rate have been the culprits. The Rays have performed much better against lefties this year posting an 11-11 record, as opposed to a horrendous mark against righties. 

Anderson has been good for the Rockies but Smyly is the better pitcher. With defensive and relief pitching edges we back the Rays here. Especially when you consider Tampa Bay has hit much better on the road.

PLAY TAMPA BAY

967 Baltimore at Tampa Bay

Uber prospect Dylan Bundy makes the start today for the O’s. Bundy was highly thought of in baseball circles before Tommy John surgery. He’s been pitching out of the Oriole bullpen as he’s looking to get back to where he was in his minor league career. Bundy has been pitching well in relief, and while he will be on a pitch count here we like him enough to back him on Sunday. The Orioles tee off on righties and Baltimore continues to surprise in the standings. Tampa Bay has been a disappointment and now there is talk of the team being sellers at the trade deadline.PLAY BALTIMORE

905 Milwaukee at CincinnatiWe came up a run short yesterday with our play on the Brewers, but we are back on Milwaukee today. The visitor owns the much better starter and the Reds really struggle against right handed starters. The bullpens and the defense gives us a slight edge and we still have these historical edges. The Reds are 80-140 playing a team with a better record, and 20-45 in that situation at home. Let’s back the Brewers to even up the series.PLAY MILWAUKEE

955 Milwaukee at CincinnatiCan’t understand the early money coming in on the Reds here. Cincinnati has proven themselves not to be favored over virtually anyone. The Reds are a poor hitting team against righties and the starting pitcher matchup is equally week from both sides.According to our friends at SportsDataBase.com Cincinnati is 79-140 when playing a team with a better record. That’s an 18.2% ROI. They are also 19-45 at home when playing a team with a better record, a whopping 35.9% ROI. Simply put the Reds should in no way be a favorite of this magnitude here, even against Matt Garza.PLAY MILWAUKEE

918 New York at Cleveland

The 11 inning victory yesterday for the Yankees is costly when looking at the available relief pitchers for today. Betances threw 21 pitches, Miller 35 and Chapman 32. Those were season highs for your 8th and 9th inning relievers. With a weak long and middle relief corps for New York, Tanaka will have to go very deep here for this not to hurt the visitor. 

Carrasco rates slightly better from the starter standpoint and other than Allen and Hunter the rest of the Tribe bullpen is available. Better bats and a big home field advantage help the Tribe this afternoon.

PLAY CLEVELAND

979 Atlanta at Chicago

The Braves shocked the Sox yesterday as they pounded Chris Sale. We expect that positive momentum to continue on Saturday. Chicago used four pitchers out of the pen and threw 72 pitches in doing so. While the starter edge favors the Sox, the team as a whole has been in a severe down spin. 

The Braves are 9-6 this year off a game in which its bullpen has allowed multiple runs. Bad teams off a win are 73-75 this year with an ROI of 10.4%. We will take advantage of an inflated line here and back the dog.

PLAY ATLANTA

927 Seattle at Kansas City

Short and sweet. We have a sizable starting pitching edge to go along with the better offense. The defensive and relief pitching angles are virtually even, and the Mariners hit much better against righties than do the Royals. We will back the team who blew a ninth inning lead last night.

PLAY SEATTLE

970 Los Angeles at Tampa Bay

Sizable pitching edge for the host as we simply can’t trust Tim Lincecum on the hill. While the Angels own the better bullpen all other advantages are with the host. A significant edge is defensively and with an offense that performs much better in this building. Tampa has also fared better against righties while the Angel offense is less than average on the road. 

According to SportsDataBase.com the Angels are 19-46 -35.0% ROI as a dog off a road game in which the bullpen allowed multiple runs. 

PLAY TAMPA BAY

922 Oakland at Minnesota

Based on the year Nolasco is having this is a huge pitching edge for the Twins. Minnesota owns the much better defense and the other overall stats are a wash. 

According to SportsDataBase.com the A’s are 19-45 with a -34.2% ROI as a dog when facing an opposing starter with an ERA of over 4.0. The Twins on the other hand are 25-11 as a favorite off a home comeback win.

PLAY MINNESOTA

977 Pittsburgh at Oakland

The Pirates were good to us last night as they outlasted the A’s. We’re going right back with the Bucs here as we feel this starting pitcher matchup is much closer than what it looks like on the surface. Pittsburgh rakes against righties and the A’s have a lineup which has struggled at times with left handers. Too much of a gap between these two in this line as we feel the Pirates have plenty of value tonight.

PLAY PITTSBURGH

927 Pittsburgh at Oakland

Major go against spot here for the A’s who have Rich Hill returning from the DL. The Pirates pound lefties and the price is inflated by throwing an unknown starter. This game is one of those system plays that take advantage of a named pitcher who will be very careful on the mound today. The better hitting Pirates at a nice underdog price is the play today.

PLAY PITTSBURGH 

973 Baltimore at Seattle
Short analysis with today being a travel day. Amazingly the Mariners are 18-48 at home after winning a game it never trailed. Baltimore bullpen is set up well and we prefer the O’s starting pitching in this matchup.PLAY BALTIMORE

905 Chicago at New YorkNice time to go against the fading Mets after the Nationals took it to them in a key divisional battle. According to SportsDataBase.com Chicago has been outstanding after winning and never trailing posting a 79-47 record with an 11.5% ROI. This team is also 35-14 with a 17.6% ROI as a favorite after the bullpen went at least an inning without allowing a run. The Chicago bullpen has the edge here and it’s set up perfectly for this series. The starting pitching edge is slight for the host but all other intangibles point toward the Cubs.PLAY CHICAGO CUBS

905 Los Angeles at MilwaukeeThe Dodgers bullpen went 4 innings of shutout ball yesterday which portends well for the visitor tonight. Urias has been outstanding as of late after getting hit hard early on in his first few tastes of the majors. LA is 37-13 as a favorite after allowing 6 hits or less according to SportsDataBase.com. The Dodgers own every edge in this contest with the exception of possibly late inning relief as Jansen had to throw 23 pitches yesterday. Nice price for a team with solid edges all around.PLAY LOS ANGELES DODGERS

968 St Louis at Kansas City

The Cardinals are very good against lefties but Danny Duffy is finally living up to his high praise when coming up in the system. The ratings we use have him clearly the better pitcher here as Wainwright has been slow to come back to his previous form after TJ surgery.According to our friends at SportsDataBase.com the Royals are 22-11 off a home game i which they permitted 6 or fewer hits. Also, 32-13 off a home game in which they scored 5 or more runs. With Alex Gordon back in the lineup this KC offense is much more dangerous. With the bullpen in good shape after a nice start yesterday we will back the Royals here in this inter league rivalry contest.PLAY KANSAS CITY

907 NY Mets at Atlanta

Amazingly the Braves are just 13-33 after playing in extra innings. That points to a weakened bullpen. It also means the starter the following day has to go deep in the game. With Norris on the hill that’s a major advantage for the Mets. According to SportsDataBase.com New York is 46-17 as a favorite after a game as a road favorite in which it won and never trailed. That points to the strength on this Mets bullpen. New York has advantages across the board in this contest and the line is priced very fairly. Let’s look for Bartolo Colon to provide the betting value we often see with him on the mound.PLAY NEW YORK METS

968 Toronto at Chicago

Wrong team favored here in our opinion as Gonzalez is a major upgrade on Dickey when in comes to putting runners on base. The major edge is in bases on balls as Dickey and his knuckleball produce a great deal of walks. With virtually every other category being even the Sox should have been installed as the slight favorite here. In what we consider a pick em game we will gladly take the plus money with the host.PLAY CHICAGO WHITE SOX

919 Cleveland at Detroit

There was a long time when the Tribe couldn’t get over the hill against the Tigers. But that dominance is no longer in play as Cleveland is no longer intimidated by the Motor City.Cleveland owns the clear pitching edge here and the Tigers are coming off an extra inning game in which it used four pitchers for five innings. The defense is also an edge for the visitor and the price is right. It’s not often you get Danny Salazar in this price range.PLAY CLEVELAND

908 Washington at Los Angeles

Significant pitching and defensive edges for the Dodgers here as Urias has gotten better each time out. The LA bullpen also is in a positive situation after going more than an inning without allowing an earned run. Washington hasn’t been able to take advantage of pitchers with an ERA of 4 or more, posting a 110-162 record with a negative ROI of 17.2% as per SportsDataBase.com.PLAY LOS ANGELES DODGERS

977 Philadelphia at MinnesotaSimply can’t trust Duffey and the Twins here in the favorite role. We are well aware of the Phillies lack of offense but Nola is a superior pitcher, and he’s in the underdog role. Philly has the relief and the defensive edges to stymie this questionable Twins offense.PLAY PHILADELPHIA

963 Tampa Bay at ClevelandKluber is often overpriced despite no fault of his own. The Indians just don’t hit when he takes the mound. It’s been a long term problem that has cost him many wins over the years.Cleveland must face highly regarded Blake Snell tonight, a pitcher with a bright upside. The Rays own the lefty/righty hitting advantage and the defense and relief advantages are minimal. Good price on Tampa Bay Tuesday night.PLAY TAMPA BAY

956 Colorado at MiamiThe Rockies have long been a team that you want to play against on the road. The altitude adjustment is such that this team has a strong home advantage but has been a consistent money burner on the road.Here we find a team that doesn’t hit lefties all that well and is subpar offensively away fro home. Nice price on a quality starter at home for the Marlins.PLAY MIAMI

968 Detroit at ChicagoWe don’t often dabble in lines this high but we feel this number is a bargain based on the over adjustment to current form with Sale. He’s still an elite pitcher going against a journeyman in Pelfrey. The Tigers starter is only going 5.3 innings a start which opens up the Chicago batters to one of the worst bullpens in baseball once again. The host owns major advantages all around except for the lefty/righty hitting category, which in no way measures up to the pitching and defensive edges for the host.PLAY CHICAGO WHITE SOX

922 Kansas City at Chicago

Return visit to the mound for Ventura after being thrown out last game for hitting Manny Machado. He’s struggled this year and the coaches were on him for continuing to headhunt. Because of his past we expect Ventura to stay away from the inside of the plate here, which will only help the White Sox hitters. We rate Rodon as the clearly better starter and the White Sox the much better hitting team.Kansas City obviously owns the bullpen, but the Royals are just 3-12 this year on the road when playing a team with a worse record. A complete turnaround from the last two years when Kansas City was excellent in that role.PLAY CHICAGO WHITE SOX

959 Los Angeles at San Francisco

Slight starter edge for the visitor to go with a huge bullpen edge for the Dodgers. Los Angeles also owns the lefty/righty matchup as San Francisco has had troubles vs left handed starters. Overall we are getting the better complete team in this contest at a plus price.PLAY LOS ANGELES DODGERS

915 Detroit at New YorkWhile the Yankees have the pitching edge in this one the advantage is not as wide as you may think. The reason is how well the Tigers hit left-handed pitching. Out of all the lefty/righty matches on the board today Detroit has the biggest discrepancy on the card. That’s rare for a team in this price range, so the payoff is more than fair here. The Tigers will get to CC and if Pelfrey can put up an average game the back end of the Yankees rotation won’t be able to leave the bullpen.PLAY DETROIT

977 Tampa Bay at ArizonaThe American League has traditionally dominated these interleague contests, so it’s very rare to get an AL squad in this price range. The starting pitcher is clearly an edge for the Diamondbacks, but every other category goes to the visitor. The lefty/righty advantage for the Rays is the tipping point. Great value on the underdog here.PLAY TAMPA BAY

916 Houston at TexasThe Rangers have been dynamite the last couple years in this role according to our friends at SportsDataBase.com. Texas is 27-14 with an ROI of 36.5% at home off a home game in which their bullpen went at least one inning and did not allow a run. That’s 5-1 this year. Also the Rangers are 56-25 with an ROI of 28.0% at home after playing as a home dog when facing a team with a worse record. That’s a perfect 6-0 this year.There is no starting pitching edge while Houston is the slightly better offense. The Astros have the better bullpen but not enough to have them favored here on the road. PLAY TEXAS

927 Seattle at TexasSolid pitching edge for the Mariners as Nate Karns has really stepped up his game as of late. The Mariners also have a sizable advantage in the bullpen and defensively. They also hit better against lefties than the Rangers do against righties. The price is right with the better all-around team on Saturday.PLAY SEATTLE

978 Tampa Bay at MinnesotaJake Odorizzi has been a highly thought of pitcher in this organization for a while. While he is very talented his numbers at this level have been less than impressive. Yet he continues to be credited more on his potential than actual results.Ricky Nolasco has been a journeyman for most of his career, but this season he has been at the top of his game. When handicapping starters you have to take into consideration the current levels these two are pitching at, and Nolasco is having the better year. Our friends at SportsDataBase.com point out that the Twins are 25-17 when the bullpen pitches at least a full inning without allowing a run, which has been a solid handicapping angle for the league as a whole. Nice value tonight on the host.PLAY MINNESOTA

980 Seattle at San Diego

As we’ve mentioned in the past King Felix has put up his normal outstanding numbers when looking at traditional stats. But when you dig deeper in his advanced numbers we find an overrated starter. His velocity is way down and his swinging strike rate has also plummeted. He’s being led by a BABIP that is way below his career numbers. So luck has been a major factor in his success. According to our friends at SportsDataBase.com the Mariners are only 72-73 as a favorite when playing a team with a worse record, an ROI loss of 16.4%. They are also 60-83 after winning by 5 or more runs for an ROI loss of 16.2%. We will back the Padres as this line is simply way too high.PLAY SAN DIEGO

919 Tampa Bay at Kansas CitySolid pitching edge here for Drew Smyly who is at a nice price after recent struggles. But he continues to miss bats and we see no reason to bet against him in this price range. Especially against a Kansas City team who is weak offensively when facing lefties. Tampa is a better offensive team on the road and Dillon Gee ranks slightly less than an average major league pitcher.PLAY TAMPA BAY

955 Los Angeles at ChicagoGoing with the Dodgers here as a nice underdog as the pitching matchup favors the visitor here. Alex Wood struggled out of the gate but he has been outstanding as of late. Hammer has been very inconsistent, so we prefer the Dodger lefty.All other numbers are very close so we will take the Dodgers in this Memorial Day battle.PLAY LOS ANGELES DODGERS
Passing in Hoops

921 Chicago at Kansas CityThis play is simply a go against the Royals as Kansas City has struggled offensively all year and is now without key offensive performers. The Royals are digging through the minors in search of help as both left field and third base are being handled by rookies. Danny Duffy has bounced between the bullpen and rotation throughout his time in the majors. While the Royals do have the starter edge here it’s not nearly pronounced enough to put them in this price range. Nice spot to get the first place White Sox as a solid underdog.PLAY CHICAGO WHITE SOX

905 Los Angeles at New YorkdeGrom hasn’t been the same pitcher as last year and the absolute demise of Harvey has kept that fact in the background. He’s still being overpriced based on the season he had a year ago. While the line has certainly dropped since the terrible opener we feel there is still value on the Dodgers here.Julio Urias has likely been the most talked about teenager in baseball circles since Brice Harper. He’s making his major league debut at the age of 19. The Dodgers could have waited on him and brought him up later for contract reasons, but there is simply nothing for him to prove in the minors. The Mets struggle against lefties and seeing an extremely talented one for the first time is a big advantage for the visitor. We may be seeing a future Hall of Famer here if the scouts are correct.PLAY LA DODGERS

965 Colorado at Boston

Sizable starting pitcher edge for the Rockies as we simply cannot back Clay Buchholz in this price range. Two key Red Sox infield starters left the last game and likely will sit tonight. With Boston less than 100% offensively the edges for the Red Sox are minimal.PLAY COLORADO
Passing in hoops with a lean on Golden State. 

912 Cincinnati at Los Angeles

Dodgers have the edges across the board here from starting pitcher, relief pitching and offense. Major historical edges can be found at SportsDataBase.com. The Reds are 64-116 when playing a team with a better record. Cinco is 19-52 as a dog after the bullpen allowed multiple runs. The Dodgers on the other hand are 31-11 as a favorite after allowing 6 hits or less. With the LA bullpen in solid shape and the Reds relief being a fire sale we will back the Dodgers at home at a decent price.PLAY LA DODGERS
Passing in the NBA

965 LA Angels at Texas

We will back the Angels here as they own a decent edge with Chacin on the mound against Perez. Most of our numbers have this game pretty equal other than the starting pitcher, but the lefty/righty advantage also goes to the visitor. Because of injuries and suspensions the Rangers have had to make major changes around the entire field. Nice value here on the road team.PLAY LOS ANGELES ANGELS

901 New York Mets at WashingtonNice price for the underdog Mets here in a key divisional showdown. SportsDataBase.com shows New York is 67-44 with an ROI of 10.9% coming off a game in which the bullpen didn’t allow a run in at least an inning of work. New York had two shutout innings yesterday against the Brewers as the bullpen is set up nicely for Colon.PLAY NEW YORK METS

913 LA Dodgers at San Diego

Substantial starting pitching edge for Alex Wood. The Dodgers have the better bullpen and far better defense. The lefty/righty lineups also favor the visitor.As per our friends at SportsDataBase.com the Padres are only 7-25 as a dog after a home game in which they used 5 or more pitchers. 112 pitches were thrown by the San Diego bullpen last night.PLAY LOS ANGELES DODGERS

954 Atlanta at Philadelphia

Edges all around for the Phillies here as Nola has a huge edge over Wisler on the mound. Philadelphia also owns big advantages in the bullpen and defensively. The offenses are roughly equal so no edge there. But according to SportsDataBase.com the Braves are just 39-65 off a road game in which the bullpen allowed multiple runs. Atlanta used five pitchers yesterday against the Pirates throwing 88 combined pitches. The Phillies on the other hand had the day off.PLAY PHILADELPHIA

971 Tampa Bay at TorontoSticking with the Rays here who own a huge starting pitcher and defensive edge in this contest. Road divisional dogs off a win have returned an ROI of 9.6% this year and 10.3% in over 2200 contests. This is a long winning system and we currently catch Odorizzi in an underdog role.PLAY TAMPA BAY

927 NY Yankees at Arizona

The Diamondbacks pounded the Yankees yesterday 12-2 but a key point was that none of the New York elite pitchers played in the game. The listing of pitchers for the Yankees were Green, Goody, Mullee and Coke. All the top bullpen players are fresh and available tonight. Which is a big edge when playing in a good hitting environment like Arizona.

As per SportsDataBase.com the Diamondbacks are 31-52 after scoring 6 or more runs. The starter matchup is virtually equal as Greinke has taken a step back as we all expected going from pitchers parks to a hitters park in Arizona. The bullpen obviously is a huge edge for New York and the lefty/righty edges for the hitters also belongs to the Yankees. 

PLAY NY YANKEES

957 Tampa Bay at Toronto

Drew Smyly against JA Happ is a sizable advantage with the starters. Happy was great in Pittsburgh but going back to Toronto is a whole different situation, and Happ has looked more like the old American League journeyman than the Pirates successful starter.

Toronto is the better hitting team but we don’t like the distraction on the bench clearing brawl from yesterday. Tampa has a big defensive edge here that puts the Rays over the top.

PLAY TAMPA BAY

908 Pittsburgh at Chicago

You are not going to get the Cubs at home with Lester on the hill in this type of price range very often. Chicago has been dominating in all aspects this year and the advanced stats say this squad is even better than its record.

According to SportsDataBase.com the Cubs are 67-38 after allowing 6 or fewer hits, a perfect 10-0 this season! That means when the relievers are not overused and the starters do their job its hard to score on this team in future contests. 

The Pirates are a good team but this squad is overmatched here, even with Cole on the hill.

PLAY CHICAGO CUBS

956 Cincinnati at Philadelphia
We won't sell higher priced favorites to daily customers, but we do feel this play has value and we have already bet it ourselves.
The Phillies were good to us again yesterday as this pitching staff remains much improved. The best of the bunch in our opinion goes today as Aaron Nola takes the hill. Once again we find the Reds is a poor historic spot as according to SportsDataBase.com Cincinnati is now 63-106 when facing a team with a better record, and 13-34 as a road dog vs a team that has won at least two games straight. This team simply doesn’t have the talent on the road against a team playing quality baseball.PLAY PHILADELPHIA

970 Minnesota at Cleveland

We won't sell higher priced favorites to daily customers, but we do feel this play has value and we have already bet it ourselves. 

According to SportsDataBase.com the Indians are a perfect 12-0 off a home game in which it allowed 6 runs or more. 26-7 overall after permitting 6 runs or better. The Tribe has been very consistent in being able to bounce back from a poor pitching performance. The starting rotation is very competitive and talented so look for Kluber to once again pitch a quality start.

PLAY CLEVELAND

906 Cincinnati at PhiladelphiaRare chance to go against the Reds on the road at a decent price. According to SportsDataBase.com Cincinnati is 63-105 when playing a team with a better record. Also consider that the Reds are 19-45 as a dog after its bullpen allowed multiple runs. Philadelphia is a confident team with help on the way in the high minors. After being a laughing stock the past few years this team is starting to mature. Hellickson doesn’t dazzle so he is often underpriced. That’s the situation tonight as we back the upstart Phillies.PLAY PHILADELPHIA

964 Houston at BostonBoth starters have struggled this year but there is value on the Red Sox here. Houston just went 16 innings with the Indians last night and the bullpen as you would expect was used heavily. According to our friends at SportsDataBase.com the Astros are 31-77 on the road after using five or more pitchers. They are also just 3-17 facing a lefty after squaring off with three right handed starters. Boston has an elite bullpen, which is a huge advantage in this contest. With the much better hitting team, playing at home, you can say the Price is Right!PLAY BOSTON

973 Tampa Bay at SeattleKing Felix got the win over the Rays yesterday, but we favor Tampa Bay to bounce back tonight. Smiley continues to be underrated in the betting markets and we prefer the hitting of the Rays here in this lefty on lefty starter comparison.Seattle is only 40-58 playing at home against a team with a worse record, according to our friends at SportsDataBase.com. As you would assume a great many of those games Seattle was installed as the home favorite, which makes those stats even more alarming.PLAY TAMPA BAY

979 Los Angeles at TorontoShould be a terrific pitching matchup here as Maeda takes on Stroman. But we see some value with the Dodgers as Maeda has yet to allow a run on the road this year while Marcus has been simply average in the dome. Too much value on the dog here to not take the generous plus money with a pitcher that remains under the radar in  the betting markets.PLAY LA DODGERS

953 Cubs at PiratesThis game starts early so I’m limiting the analysis. Basically you won’t find the Cubs in this price range very often. Chicago is 40-16 when favored after allowing 6 or fewer hits. Which means the bullpen is set up well. The Pirates hit lefties well but the Cubs are playing great baseball right now.PLAY CHICAGO CUBS

929 Washington at Kansas CityTanner Roark is part of an outstanding Washington organization that has been so deep in starting pitching that he has remained under the radar. The Nationals are so deep the number one pitching prospect in baseball can’t get the call-up, and others on the MLB roster are forced to pitch out of the pen. Roark has seized the opportunity this year and has been amazing. Chris Young because of his height has been a somewhat successful journeyman that fits this ballpark perfectly. But he has really struggled to hold his place in the rotation this year, and the offense has struggled all season.Washington is the better team, with the far better pitcher, and is installed as an underdog. Case closed.PLAY WASHINGTON

980 Cleveland at PhiladelphiaWrong team favored here in our estimation as Eickhoff has already surpassed Bauer in our starter rankings. The Phillies are playing confident ball right now and according to Sports DataBase.com Philadelphia is 42-22 after a walk off win. Considering how bad this squad has been the past few years that is a very impressive stat. Better starter, momentum and home field give the Phillies the edge.PLAY PHILADELPHIA

926 Houston at Oakland

The rest advantage goes to the Astros here after having the day off while Oakland travels back from Detroit. But Houston hasn’t performed well in this situation. According to our friends at SportsDataBase.com the Astros are 3-16 on the road vs a lefty after facing three straight righties. To make matters worse it’s a lefty the Astros have never faced.Sean Manaea a prized pitching prospect for the A’s is making his major league debut. We have been excited to see this big lefty with outstanding minor league numbers make the majors. He’s instantly a major pitching rotation upgrade for Oakland, and we have had great success in the past riding these young talented lefties the first time through the league. Our initial situation happens tonight in a home dog role. PLAY OAKLAND

918 Oakland at Detroit

The A’s have been very impressive on the road this year but we are siding with the reasonably priced Tigers at home today. As per our friends at SportsDataBase.com the A’s are just 12-33 as a dog when facing an opposing starter with an ERA above 4. They are also 20-40 as a dog when playing a team with a worse record.The starters play out as a virtual tie with the home field edge of Verlander. Detroit has the much superior offense while the A’s have the better relievers. Detroit’s home offense is one of the best in baseball and it’s rare we get a number one starter at this price at home.PLAY DETROIT

953 Cincinnati at NY Mets

Big underdog price here for the Reds and a pitcher we really like in Brandon Finnegan. He owns a sizable edge over the Mets Bartolo Colon who has made a career out of being a journeyman. We also get the Reds #2 starter as a dog against the #4 Colon. The Mets are not a home favorite we trust with this pitching matchup.PLAY CINCINNATI

905 St Louis at Arizona

Only the slightest of starting pitcher edges here for Greinke as Garcia has been dominant when healthy. While the Cardinals enjoyed a comeback win over the Padres yesterday, the Diamondbacks used eight pitchers in an extra inning affair with the Pirates. According to SportsDataBase.com the Cardinals are 56-30 after a comeback victory. With Garcia in excellent form we will side with the underdog Cards here.PLAY ST LOUIS

927 Seattle at LA AngelsHuge starting pitching mismatch here as Felix is still a highly rated starter and Santiago isn’t highly thought of. The fact that Hector is the number three starter in this rotation tells us all we need to know about the Angels starting rotation. Felix has gotten off to a dominating start by looking at traditional numbers. But advanced stats show he’s starting to age. The key here is those stories about his demise have been overblown. Every pitcher who has put in the type of innings he has has to make adjustments. The ability to blow away the opposition is no longer consistent. But Felix has been able to adapt and become more of a pitcher and less a thrower. Too much of an overreaction here as we get Hernandez as a sizable underdog.PLAY SEATTLE 

955 Philadelphia at MilwaukeeSolid pitching advantage for the Phillies here as Nola is ranked above average and Davies below. With Davies unlikely to have success the Milwaukee bullpen will be put into play early. The Brewers used three relievers yesterday throwing 83 overall pitches. According to our friends at SportsDataBase.com Milwaukee is 11-25 after losing by 5 or more runs. That’s a major negative for a bullpen that already has questions.Philadelphia had the day off yesterday and the Phillies have been very good after walk off wins posting a 41-21 record. They walked off against the Mets on Wednesday.PLAY PHILADELPHIA

922 Tampa Bay at BostonCheap price for the Red Sox at home while facing a much less challenging offense. Coming off the powerful profile of the Blue Jays to the National League type of baseball played by the Rays, gives the Red Sox an advantage here. According to SportsDataBase.com and the SDQL the Red Sox are 52-20 when playing at home after three straight quality starts. Considering that Boston has an elite bullpen now we can only expect that winning trend to continue. While we really like Drew Smyly facing the Red Sox in Fenway is a daunting task. Let’s back Boston as it continues this homestead against the traveling Rays.PLAY BOSTON 

972 Toronto at BostonThe Red Sox were good to us yesterday and we come right back on them on Saturday. Starting pitching is a huge part of making baseball lines and this number has us stumped. The Red Sox are using a number 1 starter against the number 3 for the Blue Jays. Boston is playing at home with the far superior relief pitching. The Price/Estrada pitching duel is heavily favored for the host. We understand the lefty/righty situation for Toronto. There is simply too much value not to play on David Price in this range at home. PLAY BOSTON

918 Toronto at BostonNice starting pitcher edge for the Red Sox here as we have Dickey rated very poorly. He simply walks too many batters, and allowing extra baserunners in this building against this lineup is a disaster waiting to happen. In addition to a large edge at starter the Boston bullpen is one of the best in the majors this year. Nice cheap price on the home team tonight.PLAY BOSTON

956 San Francisco at Colorado

Rare chance to get a teams opening day starter in this price range against a number five starter from the opposition. Matt Cain has really struggled as of late and is lucky to still be in the league. Injuries and lack of production have really hurt this one time quality starter. In the rankings we use he is one of the five worst starting pitchers in baseball, and he has to pitch today in Coors Field.

San Francisco isn’t as effective against lefties and De La Rosa is one of a few starters in baseball to figure out how to pitch in this park. Great value on the host.

PLAY COLORADO

968 Kansas City at Houston

Huge pitching advantage here for the Astros as Fiers is a proven commodity while Medlen is a question mark for the Royals. He was a quality starter before his well publicized arm problems but right now until we see a few regular season starts he’s a go against for us. Houston is terrific at home and dominated the game yesterday. The price is cheap in this one as we expect a repeat.

PLAY HOUSTON

903 Milwaukee at St Louis

The dog is worth a shot here as the pitching matchup isn’t as one sided as many think. Jungman has better control, as Wacha walks more batters. Milwaukee has enough power to bring those added baserunners home. The Brewers are playing inspired ball right now while the Cards enter the season a bit overrated.

PLAY MILWAUKEE

978 Houston at Milwaukee

Astros lose the DH by playing in a National League park which makes the offenses virtually even. The pitching edge goes to Chase Anderson who knows how to pitch in hitters ballparks after coming over from Arizona. Nice underdog price here against a popular favorite.

PLAY MILWAUKEE

908 Chicago at Arizona

The Cubs are already going to be overvalued to open the season. First because they are an extremely popular team, and because Chicago is one of the top teams in the league. But now off a sweep of the Angels the public is even more on the Cubs bandwagon. But we are really down on the Angels this year, so to have success at Anaheim isn't a surprise. Now the team travels to Arizona to take on a Diamondbacks team that has some talent themselves.

Rubby De La Rosa is the slightly better pitcher here. Don't be fooled by the numbers from last year as Lackey came out of nowhere to pitch great. He's still a quality arm but Rubby is an underated starter. We have the Arizona starter slightly better, and that's not showing in this line. While the Cubs should be favored here, the line is way too high. Nice spot for the home dog here against a peaking foe.

PLAY ARIZONA

922 Houston at NY Yankees

Dallas Kuechel is making his first start of the season obviously, but he is doing so after winning the 2015 CY Young Award. We look to go against teams and players after winning postseason honors. He was dynamite at home last year but, his numbers were not as impressive when taking to the highway. Houston is thought by many to be the favorite in its division, but keep in mind that this is still a very young team. The Yankees are an afterthought in a lot of peoples minds, which is why they are a home underdog on opening day. But when healthy Tanaka is as good as any pitcher in the league. This is a nice spot to take plus money on an underrated squad.PLAY NY YANKEES

964 Minnesota at Baltimore

It says something about these teams when Santana and Tillman are your opening day starters. Neither pitching staff has a true ace but we believe Chris Tillman will be a money maker this year. We won’t be backing the Orioles often because of such poor team pitching, but this is a matchup which is underpriced in the markets. The combination of Santana and his wildness along with Baltimore's power makes this a solid play for the host. The Orioles are a high scoring power team, and when facing a pitcher with a base on balls tendency, we will back them.PLAY BALTIMORE

907 NY Mets at Kansas City

Too many reasons not to like the Mets here. Obvious World Series revenge is a major point along with all the championship festivities for the host Royals. On the diamond New York sends Harvey to the mound which is a major edge over Volquez. Add in the fact that the Royals bullpen which has been dynamite over the years, may show some cracks. Closer Davis has lost 3 mph velocity on all his pitches in the spring which could be a precursor to an injury. The same thing showed a year ago with Holland and he missed a great deal of the season with Tommy John surgery. We really respect this Kansas City bunch but we do not expect them to even win the division this year.PLAY NY METS