Stephen Nover NFL Sides Picks
| Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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| 12-13-20 | Washington Football Team v. 49ers -3 | 23-15 | Loss | -120 | 99 h 43 m | Show | |
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Fresh off upsetting Pittsburgh, Washington has to travel on a short week and in a rare letdown spot. The 49ers also were in action on Monday, but have a far less journey. San Francisco also has more experience playing in Arizona. Playing there isn't so bad for the 49ers considering they were 1-4 at Levi's Stadium this season. The 49ers are far from full strength, but they are getting healthier each week. San Francisco is extremely well-coached on both sides of the ball and are very familiar with Alex Smith. Washington is likely to be without its best running back, Antonio Gibson. He's dealing with turf toe. This non-division game holds a lot of meaning to Kyle Shanahan. He and his father, Mike, were fired by Washington owners Daniel Synder. The 49ers shut out Washington, 9-0, last season and Kyle Shanahan awarded the game ball from that win to his father.
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| 12-13-20 | Colts -2.5 v. Raiders | 44-27 | Win | 100 | 99 h 31 m | Show | |
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The Raiders are the only team that can claim victories against the Chiefs and Saints. But Las Vegas also is capable of losing to any team. The Raiders needed a late long TD pass to nip the winless Jets last week and two weeks ago were blown out by the 4-8 Falcons, 43-6. Derek Carr is the Raiders' focal point if Josh Jacobs remains out with an ankle injury. Carr is having a good season, but I would take the Colts defense over him. The Colts give up the fifth-fewest yards, the third-fewest TD passes and have the fourth-best defensive passer rating. Philip Rivers is not a mobile QB and the Colts have offensive line injuries. But the Raiders are tied for the third-fewest sacks in the NFL with 15. The Raiders are well below average in all of the major defensive categories, including ranking 28th in scoring defense allowing 28.9 points per game. This figure would be even higher if the Raiders didn't hold the Browns to six points in a game heavily impacted by bad weather and gusting winds. I see the Colts as a well-coached, professional team with a good defense that rarely beats itself. The Raiders can't make that claim. They are too undisciplined and inconsistent.
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| 12-13-20 | Texans v. Bears +1.5 | 7-36 | Win | 100 | 95 h 29 m | Show | |
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I'll take the superior Bears defense and home field to trump Deshaun Watson. Only 11 teams have surrendered fewer points than the Bears. The Texans defense ranks 30th in yards and 31st in rushing yards. Chicago's ground attack has picked up the past several weeks with David Montgomery playing well. Mitch Trubisky gives the Bears a mobility factor they didn't have with Nick Foles. Trubisky is turnover-prone, but the Texans have the fewest takeaways in the league. Allen Robinson provides the Bears with the best wide receiver on the field. Watson's numbers go way down when he doesn't have Will Fuller, who is suspended. The Texans also are without Kenny Stills and Randall Cobb, too. Brandin Cooks is the Texans' best receiver left and he's questionable with a concussion. Pass defense is a Bears strength. Watson can't rely on the Texans' last-ranked ground attack.
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| 12-13-20 | Chiefs -7 v. Dolphins | Top | 33-27 | Loss | -110 | 95 h 15 m | Show |
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Brian Flores is a leading contender to win Coach of the Year honors as somehow the Dolphins are 8-4. But I see them getting exposed here by the Chiefs. Miami's talent level, especially on offense, can't compare to the Chiefs. The Dolphins haven't broken 20 points in their last three games and that's going against the Broncos, Jets and Bengals. They've faced some bad quarterbacks during their last eight games: Brandon Allen, Ryan Finley, Sam Darnold, Drew Lock, Joe Flacco and C.J. Beathard. Now the Dolphins get Patrick Mahomes. Kansas City has won seven in a row. Mahomes' numbers during this win streak are 71.5 percent completions for 2,341 yards and an 18-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Rookie Tua Tagovailoa can't keep up. His statistics look better than how he has played. We're not talking about Justin Herbert or Joe Burrow here. The Dolphins lost to the Broncos three weeks ago. Kansas City beat Denver twice winning by an average of 16.5 points. Kansas City has won its last 11 road/neutral site games. The Chiefs have covered 67 percent during the past 19 times they've been chalk. |
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| 12-06-20 | Rams -2.5 v. Cardinals | Top | 38-28 | Win | 100 | 133 h 8 m | Show |
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The Cardinals are an improving team that is struggling right now held in check the past two weeks by the Seahawks and Patriots, neither of whom's defense can compare to the Rams. Kyler Murray may not be 100 percent. The Rams are the best team in football if you go by yardage, having the largest differential in the league. LA ranks in the top-five in all of the major defensive categories. Aaron Donald is the most disruptive lineman in the NFL and Jalen Ramsey is that rare cornerback who can handle DeAndre Hopkins. LA's balanced offense can control clock and take advantage of a mediocre Arizona defense that has multiple defensive line injuries and is minus its star pass rusher, Chandler Jones. The Rams have owned the Cardinals beating them the past six times going 5-0-1 ATS. Arizona would be 0-4 in its last four home contests if not for a successful Hail Mary against the Bills and an overtime victory against Seattle. Under Sean McVay, the Rams have won 21 of 31 road games going 19-12 (61 percent) ATS. |
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| 12-06-20 | Colts -3 v. Texans | 26-20 | Win | 100 | 57 h 58 m | Show | |
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Houston had its highlight on Thanksgiving putting the final nail on Matt Patricia's coffin. The Texans are a bad team, two levels lower than the Colts. Indy has a top-10 defense. Deshaun Watson is playing at an elite level, but he doesn't have a reliable ground game even if David Johnson returns and now he has a thin wide receiving group with Will Fuller suspended, Kenny Stills gone and Randall Cobb injured. The Colts have gotten healthier on defense. They are effective and probing rather than flashy on offense. But they have more than enough manpower to handle a Houston defense that ranks 31st in run defense and 30th in total yards. The Texans also are second-to-last in takeaways. |
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| 12-06-20 | Lions v. Bears -3 | 34-30 | Loss | -110 | 57 h 48 m | Show | |
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Perception seems to be that the Lions are a live 'dog because they finally got rid of Matt Patricia and will play harder under interim coach Darrell Bevell. That remains to be seen. I never thought much of Bevell's play-calling when he was an offensive coordinator. The Bears are home, have owned the Lions and have a far superior defense. The Lions' plight is going to continue to be rough if Kenny Golladay and D'Andre Swift both remain out. I don't expect either of them to play. They are Matthew Stafford's best wide receiver and running back. Chicago has defeated Detroit five straight times, including 27-23 on the road in Week 1. Mitchell Trubisky plays great against just one opponent - this one. Trubisky has completed 67.5 percent of his throws against the Lions for 1,601 yards and 14 TD passes in six games. The Lions' defense isn't good to begin with and now they'll be minus veteran cornerback Desmond Trufant and run-stuffing nose tackle Danny Shelton. The Bears are more likely to be fired-up than the Lions. Chicago has lost five in a row, including getting buried in embarrassing fashion against the Packers in their last game. Matt Nagy ripped his team after that loss. Because their next three games are against the Texans, Vikings and Jaguars, the Bears still could get into the playoffs. So a hard effort should be forthcoming. Detroit has failed to cover 11 of the past 15 times as an underdog. |
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| 11-29-20 | Bears v. Packers -9 | 25-41 | Win | 100 | 21 h 52 m | Show | |
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I want the Packers off a loss where they are a perfect 5-0 SU and ATS under Matt Lafleur. Aaron Rodgers hasn't lost to the Bears at home when he's started and finished a game since 2015. Green Bay averages 30.8 points, third-highest in the NFL. The Bears entered their break last week averaging fewer than 16 points during their last four games. They are either last or second from the bottom in scoring, total yards and rushing yards., Chicago has a patchwork offensive line and just one weapon, Allen Robinson. The Packers can limit Robinson with shutdown cornerback Jaire Alexander. Mitch Trubisky is great against the Lions. He's lousy against every other team. The Bears already have given up on Trubisky. He's back because Nick Foles is hurt and has been equally ineffective. The Bears also are 0-6 SU and ATS following a bye.
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| 11-29-20 | Chiefs v. Bucs +3.5 | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 17 h 47 m | Show | |
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Given New Orleans being down Drew Brees, the Buccaneers could be the most complete team in the NFC. They have the defense to slow down the Chiefs' high-powered offense and a passing attack that can take advantage of a Kansas City secondary that in its last two games versus the Raiders and Panthers allowed 74.1 percent completions, 8.3 YPA, a 5-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio while coming up with just two sacks in 83 dropbacks by opposing quarterbacks Derek Carr and Teddy Bridgewater. Tom Brady spearheads a much more dangerous passing attack than those two teams. Brady could have the top wide receiving trio in the league with Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and Antonio Brown. They are getting in sync more each week. It's a bad spot, too, for the Chiefs. The Buccaneers are home with much to prove after big game home losses to the Saints and Rams. The Chiefs are in a division sandwich having just gotten satisfying revenge on the Raiders and hosting the Broncos next week.
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| 11-29-20 | Browns -7 v. Jaguars | Top | 27-25 | Loss | -104 | 14 h 44 m | Show |
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The Browns don't have to do much here versus such an undermanned opponent. Baker Mayfield can just hand the ball off to Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt, while easily picking his spots against a dead Jacksonville team that is staggering with injuries. Jacksonville gives up the second-most yards per game in the NFL and yields nearly 30 points per contest. If not for a fluke victory against the Colts at home opening week, in which they were totally outplayed statistically, the Jaguars would be winless and ranking among the worst teams of all time. They haven't won since Week 1 with six of their defeats occurring by at least eight points. And now the Jaguars have to deal with their longest injury list. Jacksonville had one decent pass rusher, Josh Allen. He's out. The Jaguars have a cluster injury problem in the secondary down their three top cornerbacks. On offense, the Jaguars will be minus their top wide receiver, D.J. Chark, plus their best lineman, guard Andrew Norwell. Jake Luton proved to be as terrible as expected. So now the Jaguars turn to their third-string QB journeyman stiff Mike Glennon. Cleveland doesn't need Myles Garrett and Denzel Ward to take advantage of Glennon's lack of downfield throwing skills and no mobility.
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| 11-22-20 | Chiefs -6.5 v. Raiders | Top | 35-31 | Loss | -100 | 88 h 31 m | Show |
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Patrick Mahomes alone is enough to be confident in the Chiefs beating the Raiders by more than a TD. Mahomes is firmly in the MVP discussion with a 25-to-1 TD-to-interception ratio. Mahomes has accounted for 15 touchdowns in five career games against the Raiders and their defensive coordinator, Paul Guenther. The Raiders are among the bottom-four in sacks, sack ratio and quarterback hit rate. So Mahomes is going to have time to operate. If you throw out a heavy wind game against the Browns, the Raiders have given up more than 30 points per game during their last six games. But, wait, there is more. The Chiefs have monster revenge. The Raiders dealt them their lone loss. Kansas City also is off its bye. No coach is better with an extra week during the regular season than Andy Reid, who is 18-3 in this role. The Chiefs' defense has been playing better allowing 17 or fewer points in three of their last four games. The Raiders were missing three starting offensive linemen in their last game and their defense is dealing with COVID protocols with seven players affected, including safety Jonathan Abram.
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| 11-22-20 | Dolphins v. Broncos +3.5 | 13-20 | Win | 100 | 83 h 18 m | Show | |
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The Dolphins are a nice story this season exceeding expectations so far with a 6-3 record. But they are not some elite team and find themselves in a tough situational spot. Miami traveled to Arizona and nipped the Cardinals two weeks ago. The Dolphins beat the Chargers at home last Sunday and now must go on another long flight. This time into high altitude and colder weather. The 3-6 Broncos actually give up fewer yards per game and average more yards per game than the Dolphins. The problem for Denver has been a league-high 21 turnovers. Protect the ball and the Broncos should win. I'm expecting Drew Lock to play, but if he doesn't I'm fine with backup Brett Rypien, who was the quarterback when Denver beat the Jets, 37-28, on Oct. 1. I understand the Dolphins aren't the Jets. But I'm fine if Rypien plays instead of Lock.
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| 11-22-20 | Eagles +3.5 v. Browns | 17-22 | Loss | -115 | 80 h 20 m | Show | |
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As disappointing as the Eagles have been this season, they are in first place in the bogus NFC East Division. So they certainly are not raising up the white flag. I expect improvement from the Eagles now that they are finally healthy on offense. If you subtract the two heavy-wind games the Browns were involved in against the Raiders and Texas, Cleveland would be giving up 31.6 points a game. The Browns have a banged-up offensive line and right tackle Jack Conklin is dealing with COVID-19 issues. A comparison can be made because each team has played the Ravens and Steelers. The Eagles lost by nine at the Steelers after trailing by just two points with less than four minutes and they were edged by the Ravens, 30-28, after missing a two-point conversion with less than two minutes left. By contrast, the Browns were crushed 38-6 by the Ravens and blown out 38-7 by the Steelers.
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| 11-19-20 | Cardinals v. Seahawks -3 | Top | 21-28 | Win | 100 | 40 h 27 m | Show |
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The Cardinals are riding high after pulling out a 32-30 home win against the Bills this past Sunday on a 43-yard TD pass from Kyler Murray to DeAndre Hopkins with two seconds left. The Seahawks are at low ebb having lost three of their past four games, including the last two. Now, though, is the time to buy low on Seattle and fade Arizona in this spot. The Cardinals have to travel on a short week still basking in their near-miracle victory against the Bills. Arizona exerted a ton of energy in that game coming back from a 23-9 deficit midway through the third quarter. Fans won't be permitted into the stadium, but Seattle still is in a highly favorable situation not having to lose a day of practice to travel and in short revenge. The Cardinals nipped the Seahawks, 37-34, in overtime on Oct. 25. The Cardinals tied the game on a 44-yard field goal as time expired to force the OT. Russell Wilson threw three interceptions yet the Seahawks still should have won that game outgaining Arizona and controlling the clock for nearly 10 more minutes than the Cardinals. Seattle didn't have superstar safety Jamal Adams, nor pass rusher Carlos Dunlap, in that game either. The Seahawks haven't lost three straight regular season games in nine years. They have covered 68 percent of their last 51 games following a loss. The Seahawks have a history of being very tough in nationally televised games with the best record in the NFL in primetime games since Carroll took over Seattle in 2010. |
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| 11-15-20 | Ravens -7 v. Patriots | 17-23 | Loss | -105 | 137 h 10 m | Show | |
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The Patriots lack talent and there is nothing Bill Belichick can do about it. The Patriots haven't been this bad in nearly 20 years. They barely managed to beat the Jets. Before that victory, New England was averaging 12.2 points in its last four games. Cam Newton is devoid of weapons and New England's defense is worse than perceived. Washed-up Joe Flacco threw for 262 yards and 3 TD's against the Patriots this past Monday. The Ravens are the No. 1 rushing team in the NFL averaging 170 yards on the ground. The Patriots rank 25th in run defense. Baltimore has won its last 10 road games going 7-2-1 ATS. The Ravens, though, have never won at New England in five regular-season meetings. This is their opportunity and I look for a lot of pent-up frustration from the Ravens to be unleashed against the for-once overmatched Patriots.
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| 11-15-20 | Bengals +7.5 v. Steelers | 10-36 | Loss | -110 | 50 h 20 m | Show | |
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Bengals plus 8 at Steelers I like the Bengals to hang within a touchdown of the Steelers whether Ben Roethlisberger plays or not. I'm locking in now because the number will shrink if Roethlisberger is not cleared to play, which would mean Mason Rudolph under center and a far more conservative Pittsburgh game plan. Rudolph is a stiff and Roethlisberger wouldn't have the benefit of any practice this week. Cincinnati gives up a lot of yardage, but their scoring defense isn't that far below average ranking 20th giving up 26.8 points per game. Cincinnati has scored 27 or more points in five of its last seven games. Expectations were set high for Joe Burrow - and he's surpassed them. I don't expect Joe Mixon back yet, but he's only had one really good game. A hidden key for the Bengals has been the tremendous kicking of veteran journeyman Randy Bullock, who is 18-for-20 in field goals and perfect on 20 extra point kicks. Only once have the Bengals lost by more than five points this season. They are 11-3 ATS the last 14 times as a road underdog. |
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| 11-15-20 | Eagles -3 v. Giants | Top | 17-27 | Loss | -114 | 124 h 15 m | Show |
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The Eagles started to get healthier before their bye last week and now could have Miles Sanders and right tackle Lane Johnson joining left tackle Jason Peters, Dallas Goedert and Jalen Reagor, who all recently returned from injuries. Daniel Jones is 6-16 as a starter with 36 turnovers. It's not close between him and Carson Wentz, who threw 3 TD passes when the Eagles beat the Giants, 22-21, three weeks ago. That was the eighth straight time the Eagles have defeated the Giants. The short point spread does not accurately reflect how much superior the Eagles are to the Giants, whose only two victories have been against Washington.
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| 11-12-20 | Colts +1 v. Titans | Top | 34-17 | Win | 100 | 18 h 31 m | Show |
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If you're judging this matchup just by skill position talent it's no contest. The Titans easily have the three best players in this area with Ryan Tannehill, Derrick Henry and A.J. Brown. So why then is this game a pick'em given the Titans' skill position edge and being the home team on a short week? It's because the Colts own the far superior defense, have a better offensive line and have the advantage on special teams. These edges outweigh the Titans' skill position players and put me on the Colts. Tremendous credit goes to the Colts for building a defense that ranks No. 1 in total yards giving up 290 yards per game and the third-fewest points at 20 per game. Indy also ranks No. 3 in run defense. Henry hasn't faced the Colts since they upgraded an already good defensive line with DeForest Buckner. I also rate Darius Leonard as the best linebacker in the league. Tannehill is better than Philip Rivers, but he's not an elite quarterback and he won't be that effective with play-action if Henry isn't churning out yards. The Bears held the Titans to 4.1 yards per play last Sunday. The Colts' defense is rated higher and their offense is better than the Bears. Indy's run defense surrenders just 3.3 yards per carry. The Titans are without their best offensive lineman, injured left tackle Taylor Lewan. Guard Rodger Saffold might be Tennessee's second-best offensive lineman and he's questionable with a shoulder injury. The Colts' offense doesn't scare anyone with Philip Rivers in his NFL dotage. But Indy has produced points when going against non-elite defense such as the Titans averaging 34 points against the Lions, Bengals, Jets and Vikings. Rivers is playing better, producing two of his three highest passer ratings during the past three games with six TD passes during this span. T.Y. Hilton, the Colts' top wide receiver, is expected to play. The Titans rank 25th defensively giving up more than 100 yards per game than Indianapolis. Tennessee allows opponents to convert on 55.4 percent of their third downs, which is the worst figure in the NFL. That mark was even higher, but the Titans held the woeful Bears offense to 2-of-15 on third down. Then there's the kicking game. It favors Indy. Colts rookie Rodrigo Blankenship has come through making 17 of 19 field goals. By contrast, Titans place-kicker Stephen Gostkowski has the worst mark in the league for field goal accuracy making just 11 of 18. Field position always is important and the Titans won't have their All-Pro punter Brett Kern. He missed his first game since 2009 last week with a wrist injury, ending a string of 180 straight games. Kern has the seventh-highest punting average in the league. Kern also is the Titans' holder on extra points and field goals. Ryan Allen replaced Kern against the Bears and did an excellent job punting. But can he do it again? He's not a sure, reliable entity like Kern.
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| 11-09-20 | Patriots v. Jets +10 | Top | 30-27 | Win | 100 | 10 h 45 m | Show |
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At double-digits, I'm involved with the Jets. And, yes, my hand is firmly holding my nose. The handicap is completely anti-New England rather than pro Jets in any way although the Jets certainly won't lack motivation. This is the rare national stage for them. They are home, hate the Patriots and do not want to become the first Jets team in team history to open 0-9. The line has been adjusted upward because Joe Flacco is going to start instead of Sam Darnold. Flacco has been washed up for years. But he's a veteran and Darnold hasn't played well. So there's really not that much of a difference. Darnold has been spooked by the Patriots and Bill Belichick so I would have had little confidence in him. Stephon Gilmore, the Patriots' best defensive back, is out with a knee injury. Forget the past two decades. New England is terrible. The Patriots have worse skill position talent than even the Jets. New England ranks 29th in scoring and 30th in total yards. The Patriots are averaging 12.2 points in their last four games. They could have kicking problems, too, as Nick Fok is questionable with a back injury. If Folk can't kick, rookie Justin Rohrwasser would be promoted from the practice squad. The Patriots' puny offense certainly can't withstand any missed field goals. The Patriots shouldn't be laying double-digits to any team - even to the Jets.
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| 11-08-20 | Saints v. Bucs -4.5 | 38-3 | Loss | -109 | 63 h 54 m | Show | |
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The records may not show it, but there's been a turnaround since the Saints beat the Buccaneers opening week. Tampa Bay is now the superior team - and not because it is playing at home. The Buccaneers are a rising power with an elite defense and an offense that could come fully together now that all the pieces are healthy and Antonio Brown has been added. Tampa Bay had the best run defense last year and the Bucs are No. 1 in stopping the run this season overcoming the loss of nose tackle Vita Vea. Tampa Bay is 6-2 outscoring its foes by 82 points. The Saints are a lucky 5-2 outscoring their opponents by merely nine points. New Orleans has won its last four games by a combined margin of 15 points with two overtime victories. The Saints have given up the second-most TD passes in the league. Tom Brady has the weapons to exploit that.
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| 11-05-20 | Packers -7 v. 49ers | Top | 34-17 | Win | 100 | 19 h 5 m | Show |
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The combination of injuries and COVID have destroyed the 49ers for much of the season. This situation is at its worst for the 49ers in this Thursday game. Not only do the 49ers have a cluster injury problem in their defensive line and injuries in their secondary, but their offense is now devastated, too. San Francisco has to play this game minus starting QB Jimmy Garoppolo, star tight end George Kittle, left tackle Trent Williams plus be without its top running back, Raheem Mostert, and its three top wide receivers! Talk about a depleted roster. Green Bay is likely down its three best running backs as Jamaal Williams and AJ Dillon are out and I don't expect Aaron Jones to play either. But Aaron Rodgers can overcome this because the Packers have a diverse offense with many short passing options. The Packers are averaging 31.3 points, third-best in the NFL. 49ers QB Nick Mullens operating an offense devoid of weapons will not be able to match Rodgers. |
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| 11-01-20 | Cowboys v. Eagles -8.5 | 9-23 | Win | 100 | 60 h 36 m | Show | |
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A third-string offensive line and third-string QB Ben DiNucci makes all of the Cowboys' fantastic skill position weapons impotent with the possible exception of rookie CeeDee Lamb. The Eagles' defense is strong enough to take advantage of the Cowboys' extensive injuries. Carson Wentz doesn't need his top two tight ends nor DeSean Jackson to put up a huge number on the Cowboys' hapless defense that gives up the most points per game in the league and ranks last in run defense. A maximum effort should be forthcoming from the Eagles against this hated division rival knowing their bye comes up next week.
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| 11-01-20 | Titans -4 v. Bengals | 20-31 | Loss | -125 | 150 h 41 m | Show | |
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Zac Taylor has been on the job in Cincinnati for nearly 1 1/2 years. So far the Bengals have three victories to show for it. They also are 3-8 ATS the past 11 times as home 'dogs. Taylor has a nice building block in rookie franchise QB Joe Burrow. But right now that's about all the Bengals have. And it's not nearly enough for them to hang with the Titans. Tennessee is averaging nearly 35 points during its last five games. Derrick Henry led the NFL in rushing last year and he ranks first this season by a wide margin. Ryan Tannehill has become a top-10 QB and has a healthy set of receivers headed by A.J. Brown. The Titans are going to breeze past a Bengals defense that has below par linebackers and multiple injuries both in the defensive front and secondary. Veteran defensive end Geno Atkins hasn't been quiet in his criticism of the Bengals coaching. Cincinnati surrendered 20 fourth-quarter points to the Browns this past Sunday despite Cleveland being minus Nick Chubb and Odell Beckham Jr. The Bengals finished their game against Cleveland minus three starting offensive linemen. They also aren't likely to have RB Joe Mixon back either. The Titans are one of the most opportunistic teams in the NFL with a plus nine turnover margin. |
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| 11-01-20 | Colts -2.5 v. Lions | 41-21 | Win | 100 | 84 h 37 m | Show | |
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Simply put, the Colts know how to win. The Lions don't. Indy is coming off its bye. The Colts are much better coached than the Lions and own a far superior defense ranking in the top four in many of the major categories. The Colts are fresh and should control the trenches. The Lions rank 26th in run defense. Jonathan Taylor is lined up for success, which in turn takes the pressure off Philip Rivers. The expected return of superstar linebacker Darius Leonard makes the Colts' defense even stronger. Opposing QB's have just a 7-to-10 touchdown-to-interception ratio versus the Colts. The Lions have failed to cover nine of the last 13 times they've been underdogs.
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| 11-01-20 | Vikings v. Packers -6.5 | Top | 28-22 | Loss | -112 | 150 h 60 m | Show |
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The Packers crushed the Vikings, 43-34, on the road opening week. The game wasn't nearly as close as the final score. The Packers led 29-10 in the fourth quarter and went on cruise control. Green Bay had 522 total yards and owned the ball 41:16-18:44. The Vikings couldn't stop Aaron Rodgers and Davonte Adams. Nothing has changed from that except the Packers have proven they are indeed for real while the Vikings have gone into rebuild mode with a 1-5 record. Minnesota signaled its intentions to begin a rebuild by recently trading stud defensive lineman Yannick Ngakoue knowing Dannielle Hunter was not going to return this season. Rodgers can attack a youthful Vikings secondary that ranks among the bottom-four while having a clean pocket. Green Bay has the fewest turnovers in the league with only two. Kirk Cousins, on the other hand, is on pace to throw 27 interceptions. The Packers are 8-0 in NFC North Division games under Matt LaFleur. The line has dropped due to Green Bay injuries. But left tackle David Bakhitari is expected to play and the Packers have a deep roster with one of the best backup RB's in Jamaal Williams. |
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| 10-25-20 | Packers -3 v. Texans | 35-20 | Win | 100 | 120 h 57 m | Show | |
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A terrible defense and bad coaching have done in the Texans. Their season, for all practical purposes, was to put to rest when they blew a late lead against the Titans this past Sunday. That loss put the Texans at 1-5 and crushed what little morale they had picked up when Bill O'Brien was fired. Opposing QB's are completing 70 percent of their throws versus the Texans for 13 touchdowns and just one interception. Houston also ranks last in run defense. Look for the Packers to come back strong after being embarrassed by the Buccaneers this past Sunday. Aaron Rodgers, Aaron Jones and Davonte Adams should produce huge numbers. Despite their loss to Tampa Bay, the Packers have been strong on the road under Matt LaFleur going 8-3 SU and 7-4 ATS. Green Bay also has not lost two consecutive games under LaFleur. The Texans have failed to cover the past six times they've been underdogs.
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| 10-25-20 | Panthers +7.5 v. Saints | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 8 h 9 m | Show | |
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The Saints are an overrated bunch just 2-2 in their last four games and lucky not to be 1-3 after pulling off an improbable overtime home win against the Chargers in their last game. New Orleans hasn't fared well following its bye the past couple of seasons and will be without its two top wideouts, including superstar Michael Thomas. The Panthers have shown defensive improvement and a respectable balanced offense despite not having Christian McCaffrey. Teddy Bridgewater is a mind-boggling 14-2 ATS as a road underdog in his NFL starting career. |
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| 10-19-20 | Cardinals v. Cowboys +1.5 | Top | 38-10 | Loss | -109 | 85 h 22 m | Show |
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If Dak Prescott didn't get hurt, Dallas would be at least a field goal favorite. Now they are home underdogs despite the Cardinals not playing that well and being on the road for a third straight game. The Cowboys, as it turned out, made a shrewd move signing Andy Dalton. He is a decent QB when surrounded with weapons. Dalton certainly has them here with arguably the best running back in the NFL, Ezekiel Elliott, and the top wide receiving trio in the league with Amari Cooper, Michael Gallup and CeeDee Lamb. They could torch a Cardinals secondary whose cornerbacks have been struggling. Dallas is without both of its starting offensive tackles. The Cardinals, though, suffered a major loss themselves when star pass rusher Chandler Jones was lost for the season. They don't have anyone who can rush the passer nearly as well as Jones. The Cardinals have received very little from heralded first-round draft pick Isaiah Simmons. He's been non-existent up to this point. Even with Jones, the Cardinals ranked in the bottom-five in pressuring the quarterback. I'm expecting the Cowboys to be super up for this Monday night home game wanting to show the nation they can win in their first full game without Prescott. Dalton will have had a full week of practice working with the first unit. He should be up for the challenge against a mediocre defense that just lost their best player. The Cardinals are 1-2 in their last three games. Their only win during this span was against the Jets. Their losses came to the Lions and Panthers. Arizona is 3-2 on the season. The three opponents they've defeated have a combined mark of 3-12. |
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| 10-18-20 | Bengals +9.5 v. Colts | 27-31 | Win | 100 | 55 h 1 m | Show | |
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The Bengals are 10-4 ATS as road 'dogs and have shown marked improvement this season. Joe Burrow is living up to his hype and status as the No. 1 overall draft pick. He has solid skill position help and Cincinnati's offensive line is getting better. The Colts defense surrendered 32 points to the Browns last week despite Baker Mayfield playing at less than 100 percent and Cleveland missing Nick Chubb. Indy's defense isn't the same without star linebacker Darius Leonard, who is doubtful to play here. Cincinnati's defense is another facet that has improved. The Bengals sunk a lot of money into upgrading their defense. They finally got back their best defensive lineman, Geno Atkins, last week. The Colts don't have the offense to lay this big of a number. The Colts rank second-to-last in yards per rush at 3.6 per carry. Yet the Colts have to remain a ground-based, two-wide receiver, two-tight end offense because of wide receiver injuries and the steep decline of Philip Rivers, who has become one of the least effective starting QB's in the league.
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| 10-18-20 | Ravens -7.5 v. Eagles | 30-28 | Loss | -110 | 55 h 39 m | Show | |
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The Eagles winning the Super Bowl three years ago has become a distant memory. The reality is they have an extremely banged-up offensive line, depleted receiving corps and a defense that gives up the 10th-most points a game with a leaky secondary that would be made worse if Darius Slay can't play due to a concussion. The Ravens don't have a dominant pass rusher. But their defense is opportunistic and well-coached. Baltimore ranks second in the NFL with 10 takeaways. The Ravens will try to exploit the Eagles' offensive line, which will be down their three best linemen if Lane Johnson can't play, with an assorted array of blizes and schemes. Carson Wentz has already been sacked 19 times and thrown nine interceptions. I see Baltimore holding all the advantages here. The Eagles won't even hold much off a home field edge with just 7,500 fans allowed into Lincoln Financial Field on Sunday. |
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| 10-18-20 | Texans +4 v. Titans | 36-42 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 51 m | Show | |
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The Texans are on the upswing following a much needed coaching change going from toxic Bill O'Brien to popular Romeo Crennel. The Texans responded to the move by getting their first victory, rolling past Jacksonville by 16 points last week. Houston played the hardest September schedule of any team. But now that portion of the schedule is finished and the Texans have their confidence and morale up. The Texans draw Tennessee in a vulnerable spot. The shorthanded Titans are fat and happy after rolling past the Bills, 42-16, this past Tuesday. So this is a very short week for Tennessee, which isn't up to full strength and is dealing with the distraction about its supposed lack of adherence to pandemic protocols. The Titans are 4-0, but their first three victories came by a combined six points all stemming from game-winning field goals that occurred with less than two minutes left. Tennessee is a more well-rounded team than Houston. But the Texans have the better quarterback and the two best defensive players in J.J. Watt and linebacker Zach Cunningham. If the Texans are going to get back into the AFC South Division race they need to win this game. They are the team with the greater urgency.
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| 10-11-20 | Colts v. Browns +1.5 | 23-32 | Win | 100 | 57 h 47 m | Show | |
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Indy ranks first defensively. But I'm not buying that the Colts have the best defense, especially missing their top defensive player, injured linebacker Darius Leonard. The Colts have faced the Jaguars, Vikings, Jets and Bears. The Browns are the most balanced offense they've gone against. The Browns have produced 34 or more points each of the last three weeks. Kareem Hunt is a capable bellcow running back with Nick Chubb injured. Baker Mayfield is in a better system with better coaching. Odell Beckham Jr. is flashing his immense talents again. Indy can't match Cleveland's firepower. The Browns have held their opponents to 3.5 yard per rush, which ranks fifth-best. The Browns lead the NFL with 11 takeaways. Their banged-up secondary is getting healthier. So this is a tough matchup for a conservative Colts offense that relies on rookie RB Jonathan Taylor and over-the-hill Philip Rivers to play game-manager. |
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| 10-11-20 | Bengals +13 v. Ravens | 3-27 | Loss | -110 | 53 h 27 m | Show | |
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The Ravens aren't close to where they want to be while the Bengals are an improved bunch. Joe Burrow just hasn't been the first rookie QB to throw for 300 yards in three consecutive games. He's done much more giving the Bengals hope and confidence. Baltimore ranks just 11th in offensive efficiency. The Ravens' offensive line is playing below their level and Lamar Jackson is off to a slow start. He might not be 100 percent healthy either. The Ravens had fewer first downs and lost the time of possession against lowly Washington last Sunday. Cincinnati has played the Ravens tough covering six of the past seven meetings. Baltimore hasn't been good as home chalk under John Harbaugh going 6-12 ATS the past 18 times as a home favorite.
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| 10-11-20 | Cardinals -7 v. Jets | 30-10 | Win | 100 | 53 h 25 m | Show | |
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The Cardinals have far more talent than the Jets. Arizona, though, has underachieved in its last two games losing to the Lions and Panthers on the road. I see the Cardinals rebounding against a perfect patsy here. The winless Jets have been outscored by 66 points. That's the worst point differential in the league. The Giants are a distant second at minus 49. The Jets are at this low mark with Sam Darnold at QB, too. Darnold has regressed, but he's still far better than backup Joe Flacco, who will replace the injured Darnold in this game. The Jets also are likely to be missing their injured star rookie offensive left tackle Mekhi Becton. Chandler Jones should be in for a monster game if Becton can't go. The Jets' offense has produced just 5 TD's in four games. Morale is low with the Jets. I get the impression they don't care if they win or lose because many of their players dislike coach Adam Gase. |
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| 10-11-20 | Eagles v. Steelers -7 | 29-38 | Win | 100 | 53 h 24 m | Show | |
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The Steelers are fresh after getting an unexpected bye. Before their bye they led the NFL in sacks. They average five sacks a game. Carson Wentz isn't having a good season. He's been sunk by multiple injuries in Philly's offensive line and receiving corps. Because of that this is a bad matchup for the Eagles. The Steelers blitz from all angles. The Eagles' offensive line already is down Brandon Brooks and Jason Peters and now Lane Johnson is hurting. Ben Roethlisberger has shown he's fine with 7 TD passes in three games and just one interception. A healthy James Conner makes a difference, too, for the Steelers' offense. Pittsburgh is traditionally strong in October under Mike Tomlin going 20-7-1 ATS.
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| 10-04-20 | Bills -2.5 v. Raiders | Top | 30-23 | Win | 100 | 125 h 14 m | Show |
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Only Kansas City and Baltimore are better AFC teams than Buffalo. The Bills are several levels higher than the Raiders especially with Las Vegas dealing with a cluster injury problem at wide receiver and in its offensive line. The spread is short because the Bills are traveling cross-country fresh off a victory while drawing the Raiders in an angry mood following their loss to the Patriots. Don't overthink these situational factors, though. Buffalo is far better than Las Vegas on both sides of the ball with Josh Allen developing into an elite force in this his third season. Allen already has set a Buffalo team record by accounting for a dozen TD's through three games. The Bills are healthy again at linebacker. Their defensive line has tremendous depth and their secondary is very good. Derek Carr could be down two starting offensive linemen and three wide receivers. Buffalo is giving up just 17.2 points in its last 10 away matchups. The Bills also have covered 78 percent of their past 11 road contests. |
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| 10-04-20 | Seahawks v. Dolphins +7 | 31-23 | Loss | -120 | 123 h 57 m | Show | |
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Russell Wilson is covering up a lot of flaws for Seattle such as a mediocre defense that doesn't apply much quarterback heat and will be without star safety Jamal Adams. This is a terrible spot for the Seahawks - a cross-country trip, early start time and brutal South Florida humidity. Seattle is fat and happy off back-to-back marquee home victories against the Patriots and Cowboys in see-saw type games. Miami, on the other hand, is on extended rest having played Thursday night. When Ryan Fitzpatrick is hot the Dolphins are competitive. And Fitzpatrick is playing well. The Dolphins are improved in the second year of their rebuild under Brian Flores. |
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| 10-04-20 | Ravens -14 v. Washington Football Team | 31-17 | Push | 0 | 36 h 43 m | Show | |
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The Ravens are in a foul mood after being embarrassed at home by the Chiefs this past Monday night. I can easily envision the Ravens running overmatched Washington into the ground. Lamar Jackson needs to re-establish his MVP credentials. Washington had one thing going - a strong defensive line. Now that's been sabotaged with Chase Young out with a groin injury and underrated Matt Ioannidis out for the season. I'm against tanking. But if any team should consider tanking it would be Washington. Dwayne Haskins is the worst starting QB in the NFL - and it's not even close. Washington's morale had to take a hit against Cleveland last week. Washington was hanging in on pace to cover a touchdown spread, if not pull an outright upset, until Haskins threw a brutal interception that turned the game around. This is hardly a road trip for Baltimore, just around 35 miles to Washington. No fans in the stands either so Washington doesn't really have a home field advantage.
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| 10-04-20 | Chargers v. Bucs -6.5 | 31-38 | Win | 100 | 36 h 42 m | Show | |
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The left side of the Chargers' offensive line consisting of tackle Sam Tevi and guard Forrest Lamp is one of the worst in the NFL. Now, coupled with starting center Mike Pouncey and the right side of the offensive line with guard Trai Turner and tackle Bryan Bulaga being out, I have to lay the touchdown with the Buccaneers. Tampa Bay's Todd Bowles is one of the better defensive coordinators in the NFL. He has a lot to work with here. The Buccaneers are a top run-stop unit and they're likely to get a lot of sacks against pocket passer rookie Justin Herbert. The Buccaneers' offense should improve as the season progresses. It has enough weapons for Tom Brady to safely put up enough points to cover this number. The Chargers have a couple of key defensive injuries and are traveling cross country. An early start time for them certainly is not a plus either.
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| 10-01-20 | Broncos +2 v. Jets | Top | 37-28 | Win | 100 | 16 h 59 m | Show |
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Welcome to the Toilet Bowl. There are three AFC teams who are 0-3. These are two of them. The third is the Texans, who have played at the Chiefs, Ravens and at the Steelers. There has been drastic line movement in this matchup with the Jets now the favorite. Much of this line change is due to the Broncos switching quarterbacks going from backup Jeff Driskel to third-stringer Brett Rypien with Drew Lock out. I actually prefer Rypien over Driskel, who is 1-8 as an NFL starter. Denver is making the long journey to the East Coast. But much of this disadvantage is off-set by this being a night game and fans not being allowed in the stands at MetLife Field. The Jets have lost by a combined 57 points, an average of 19 points a game. They've lost to the Bills, battered 49ers and Colts. Denver has two close losses, falling to the Titans by two and to the Steelers on the road by five points. Tennessee and Pittsburgh are each 3-0. Even with the Broncos going with a reserve QB, I still rate them superior to the Jets. Denver has the best pass rusher, Bradley Chubb, and more weapons than the Jets with Melvin Gordon, Noah Fant and Jerry Jeudy. The Broncos also might get back talented all-purpose back Phillip Lindsay. Sam Darnold has regressed. Perhaps he's seeing ghosts again confused by Adam Gase's complex offense. Gase has a history of getting underachieving performances from players who have thrived when they have gotten away from him. Ryan Tannehill and Kenyan Drake are two prime examples. Darnold might fall into that category, too. There's an intangible element here. Speculation is Gase could get fired if the Jets lose this game. Gase is not popular with some of his players. This leaves you to wonder if some Jets are secretly hoping they lose this game in the hopes Gase gets canned? If that were to happen, an interim Jets coach would have 10 days to get ready for the next game so the timing would be good. |
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| 09-27-20 | Packers v. Saints -3 | 37-30 | Loss | -110 | 82 h 52 m | Show | |
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Green Bay enters New Orleans puffed up with a 2-0 mark. They're going to draw an angry Saints squad that was embarrassed losing to the Raiders this past Monday night. The Packers' offensive line was able to control Detroit's weak defensive line and a much-regressed Vikings defense line devoid of injured Danielle Hunter. Aaron Rodgers and Aaron Jones took it from there being instrumental in Green Bay producing 85 points and 1,010 yards of offense in its first two games. Green Bay, however, won't have it so easy against a good and deep Saints' defensive line. The Saints are healthy defensively compared to the Lions and Vikings. Once you get past Jones and Davante Adams, the Packers are shallow at the skill position spots and tight end without any consistent playmakers. The Packers were able to cover up their defensive deficiencies because their offense was humming. That won't be the case here. Even without Michael Thomas, the Saints have a balanced attack. As good as Jones is, he's trumped by Alvin Kamara. Given the matchup and situation, the Saints are a value at minus just a field goal. |
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| 09-27-20 | Bucs -6 v. Broncos | 28-10 | Win | 100 | 78 h 23 m | Show | |
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Part of the Broncos historically being tough at home is their edge playing at Mile High Stadium. But only 5,700 fans will be allowed to attend, which is 7.5 percent capacity. So the Broncos' home field advantage is reduced. That makes the Buccaneers even more attractive because matchup-wise they should dominate. Denver's defense is down due to injuries to Von Miller and cornerback A.J. Bouye. The Broncos have just two sacks on 86 dropbacks having faced Ryan Tannehill and Ben Roethlisberger. Tom Brady has better weapons than those two quarterbacks especially with Chris Godwin back healthy and Leonard Fournette giving Tampa Bay its best running back in several years. The Broncos did not do a good job in backing up Drew Lock, who is out with a rotator cuff strain. Jeff Driskel is a career backup and not a very good one. He's inaccurate and takes too many sacks. Denver also is without its best wideout, Courtland Sutton, and all-purpose back, Phillip Lindsay. The Buccaneers have a stout defense. They led the NFL in rush defense last season and have the pass rushers to take full advantage of Driskel's inadequacies. |
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| 09-27-20 | 49ers v. Giants +4 | 36-9 | Loss | -115 | 55 h 45 m | Show | |
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The 49ers got away with being road chalk of more than a field goal last Sunday because they were playing the Jets. The Giants aren't very good either, but they are not the Jets. They are a level higher. I don't see San Francisco escaping MetLife Stadium, a place it hates to play, with back-to-back road victories. The 49ers are just too banged-up. Yes, the Giants are down Saquan Barkley and Sterling Shepard. Barkley is their best player. Still, the Giants' injuries don't compare to how many key players are out for the 49ers. Let's start with defense where both the 49ers' line and secondary are heavily reduced with Nick Bosa, Solomon Thomas, Dee Ford and Richard Sherman all out. Bosa and Ford are the team's best pass rushers. Sherman is their best cornerback and a team leader. That's just on defense. Now go to offense where the 49ers are without their starting center, two best running backs, top wide receiver and oh yes, quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo. Kyle Shanahan can game plan all he wants, but he doesn't have the pieces to formulate anything other than a conservative just-try-to-get-alive-out-of-here mentality. It's not just physical with the 49ers. They are mentally not right about playing at this stadium believing the carpet helped cause some of their many injuries. The Giants are good enough to take advantage. They nearly upset the Bears on the road last week after losing Barkley early in the game. Daniel Jones has upside and other decent wide receivers besides Shepard. The Giants' defense also has made strides. At 0-2, the Giants are in must-win mode. The 49ers are going to take New York's best punch. I don't see them being able to withstand it in their crippled situation. |
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| 09-27-20 | Washington Football Team +7.5 v. Browns | 20-34 | Loss | -117 | 34 h 15 m | Show | |
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Now that the line has gotten past a touchdown, I'm going to get involved with Washington. There are a number of below-the-surface factors that point to Washington keeping this game close. Washington is better coached this season, hasn't shown any quit and ranks first in the league in sacks. Washington also is No. 1 in Football Outsiders' DVOA defensive ranking, a metric that measures a team's production versus league average. Washington's offense is learning a new system. Improvement should come each week. The Browns get back cornerback Kevin Johnson and linebacker Mack Wilson. However, they will be without cornerback Greedy Williams, Olivier Vernon,, their second-best pass rusher, and star cornerback Denzel Ward is questionable after injuring a groin muscle in practice. Terry McLaurin is Washington's one dangerous playmaker. He could be set up for success if Ward can't go. Washington knows its offensive limitations. So they've centered their attack around throwing short passes to their running backs. This could work against Cleveland, which remains thin in the secondary. The Browns have not played well on special teams. They have one of the more worrisome kicking situations. Bottom line is the Browns, who are 12-25-1 ATS in their last 38 home games, just aren't a strong enough overall team to lay this many points against a feisty underdog. |
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| 09-27-20 | Raiders v. Patriots -6 | Top | 20-36 | Win | 100 | 76 h 53 m | Show |
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Just a terrible spot for Las Vegas. The Raiders are traveling cross-country off a monster home upset win against the Saints this past Monday night. The Patriots may have the best secondary in football. The Patriots also have limited their opponents to the third-fewest snaps. Derek Carr has gone against Bill Belichick twice. Carr has completed less than 60 percent of his throws, has fewer than a 5.0 YPA and has a 1-to-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio in those two combined games. The Raiders also could be without both of their starting offensive tackles. Richie Incognito is out with an Achilles injury and Trent Brown is dealing with a calf injury. Cam Newton appears to be a perfect fit for New England. He looked great against Seattle last week throwing for 444 yards and three TD's. Newton remains a huge running threat. The Raiders are giving up 27 points a game. Las Vegas is catching New England off a loss. The Patriots have covered 70 percent of their last 60 games following a defeat. |
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| 09-20-20 | Patriots +4 v. Seahawks | 30-35 | Loss | -108 | 35 h 45 m | Show | |
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Seattle is not an elite team. The Seahawks are a borderline playoff team that can be beat in the trenches. Their sack rate ranked among the bottom three last year. The Seahawks, though, have three things going for them - a tremendous home field, excellent coaching and Russell Wilson. All of those huge Seattle pluses are negated here. There are not going to be any fans at CenturyLink Field. It's the first time that's happened for Seattle players and it's going to feel extremely weird and strange to them. Pete Carroll is that rare coach who can coach players up. He's good, but he's trumped by Bill Belichick, the best in the business. The Patriots, by the way, have covered 69 percent of the time the past 52 times they've been an underdog. Still want to lay points against Belichick? Wilson goes from facing Atlanta's weak secondary to New England's defensive backfield, which is the deepest and best in the NFL. Stephon Gilmore can completely take away DK Metcalf. As good as Wilson is, he's not going to light up the Patriots' secondary like he did the hapless Falcons. The Patriots are the best at adapting to what they have. Their receiving corps is way down this season. So Belichick and ace play-caller Josh McDaniels have gone to a ground-oriented attack revolving around Cam Newton, one of the best running quarterbacks in the league. Jamal Adams is the only Seattle defender who can match Newton's athleticism. Adams upgrades Seattle's secondary. The Seahawks, however, are just average defensively. They have been that way for the past three years. Even with Adams, the Seahawks' secondary is nowhere the caliber it was when their Legion of Boom was intact. |
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| 09-20-20 | Chiefs -8.5 v. Chargers | Top | 23-20 | Loss | -106 | 86 h 27 m | Show |
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The Chiefs came on to capture the Super Bowl last season. They are even better this year. Their defense has been solid since the middle of last season and the offense is even scarier with rookie Clyde Edwards-Helaire being an upgrade on their previous running backs. He's just one of two new players to Kansas City's formidable starting lineup. Having lineup and coaching continuity is vital this season. The Chiefs have that. The Chargers hold little home field advantage. Their offensive line is banged-up and quarterback Tyrod Taylor can't keep up with Patrick Mahomes. The Chargers have little back-door cover capability if falling behind by double-digits. The Chargers' O-line already is banged-up missing two starters last Sunday. Kansas City has the pass rushers with Chris Jones and Frank Clark to take advantage. The Chiefs put up 34 points on the Texans last Thursday. Kansas City's offense hasn't even rounded into top shape yet. The Chargers have a better defense than Houston, but losing star safety Derwin James hurts them. The Chiefs have dominated the Chargers beating them 11 of the last 12 times. Kansas City is just on a great point spread roll period going 10-1-1 ATS in its last 12 games. I'm not going to overthink this matchup. I'm just going to roll with the Chiefs. |
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| 09-20-20 | Panthers v. Bucs -9 | 17-31 | Win | 100 | 83 h 59 m | Show | |
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The Buccaneers have the skill position pieces to bury a terrible Carolina defense. The Panthers lost their No. 1 cornerback James Bradberry in the offseason and their projected No. 2 cornerback, Elie Apple, is on IR. Carolina also was without cornerback Donte Jackson opening week. The Panthers are left with an inexperienced, makeshift secondary that includes special teams player Troy Pride at corner. Savvy Tom Brady should pick apart this weak defensive backfield especially since he'll likely have plenty of time to throw. Carolina did not even get a quarterback hit on Derek Carr in surrendering 34 points to the Raiders last week. The Raiders hadn't scored that many points in two years. While the Panthers have the worst defense in the league, the Buccaneers have one of the best. Tampa Bay ranked No. 1 in stopping the run last season. That's extremely bad news for the Panthers, who heavily rely on running back Christian McCaffrey. Bruce Arians was not happy with the play of Brady, offensive left tackle Donovan Smith and his special teams. I expect those areas will be cleaned up in what shapes up to be a Tampa Bay kill spot. |
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| 09-20-20 | Giants +5.5 v. Bears | 13-17 | Win | 100 | 31 h 28 m | Show | |
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The Bears haven't won their first two games of the season in seven years. They were lucky to get past the Lions opening week rallying from a 23-6 deficit. The Bears launched their comeback after the Lions' top three cornerbacks all went out of the game with injuries. I remain unimpressed with Mitchell Trubisky. He only plays well against the Lions and he stunk for three quarters. The Giants' defense has improved especially in the defensive line. The Lions bashed the Bears for 151 yards rushing. So Saquon Barkley should be in for a big game. The Bears are missing run-stuffing nose tackle Eddie Goldman, who opted out of the season, and their best pass rushers (Khalil Mack and Robert Quinn) are both banged-up. Daniel Jones set a rookie record with 18 touchdowns on the road last season. The Giants are expected to get back Golden Tate, too. The Giants have been excellent as road 'dogs covering 10 of the last 12 times in that role. The Bears have been one of the poorer point spread teams going 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games.
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| 09-17-20 | Bengals +6 v. Browns | Top | 30-35 | Win | 100 | 43 h 16 m | Show |
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Normally it's a huge disadvantage to be the road team for a Thursday game. But Cleveland's home edges are reduced. There won't be close to 70,000 screaming Browns fans at FirstEnergy Stadium. Instead seating capacity will be limited to 6,000. The Bengals know the Browns well being heated division rivals. Cincinnati also has coaching continuity. This is something the Browns don't have with first-year head coach Kevin Stefanski and a new offensive system. The Bengals displayed promise and hope in their 16-13 opening week loss to the Chargers. They led the Chargers in the fourth quarter. Cincinnati was done in by poor place-kicking. That game should have at least reached overtime. The Browns, though, also are dealing with kicking woes bringing in Cody Parkey to replace Austin Seibert, who the Bengals promptly picked up maybe to pick up some secrets about the Browns. Cleveland is likely to run the ball a lot at the Bengals. The Browns weren't able to pound away opening week because they fell too far behind the Ravens. Getting smashed by Baltimore, 38-6, surely does not help the Browns' fragile morale. The Bengals should be able to throw effectively on the Browns, who are without active linebacker Mack Wilson and already have a depleted secondary down three projected starters. Safety Grant Delpit is out for the season, while cornerbacks Kevin Johnson and Greedy Williams didn't play in Week 1 and aren't likely to be ready here during this short turnaround. The Browns probably are going to be forced to use special teams player Tavierre Thomas as a slot cornerback. Thomas played just three defensive snaps last season and 28 defensive snaps this past Sunday. The Bengals have a deep wide receiving group with A.J. Green, Tyler Boyd, Tee Higgins, John Ross and Auden Tate. Joe Burrow is at his best operating a spread-type offense, which the Bengals are smart enough to employ. Burrow can negate Myles Garrett and Cleveland's other pass rushers by effectively throwing short passes and using top-10 running back Joe Mixon on the ground. Cincinnati has covered nine of the last 11 in this series and also is 8-3 ATS the past 11 times as a road 'dog. The Browns aren' good enough, nor trustworthy enough, to lay nearly a touchdown against a much-improved division foe. |
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| 09-13-20 | Cowboys v. Rams +3 | Top | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 108 h 19 m | Show |
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The public appeal of the Cowboys and the market being down on the Rams after last season's disappointment have produced a mispriced line here. The Rams should not be a field goal home 'dog to Dallas. Although there will be no fans in the stand, the Rams have extra motivation for a 44-21 embarrassing loss they suffered to the Cowboys last season and this being the first game at their new SoFi Stadium. Jared Goff is close to an elite quarterback - when he's playing at home where he has a 31-to-11 touchdown-to-interception ratio the past two seasons compared to a 22-to-17 ratio on the road during this time span. Goff is a pocket passer. The Cowboys don't have their full complement of star pass rushers yet. Dallas' secondary is the most vulnerable part of its defense. Dallas has a high-powered attack. However, the Cowboys' offense may need time to get into gear. Mike McCarthy didn't coach last year. He had a shortened offseason and no preseason to to implement his style. The Cowboys are down two of their offensive linemen from a year ago being minus center Travis Frederick and right tackle La'el Collins. Then there is the Cowboys record as a road favorite. It's not good. Dallas lost straight-up laying points on the road last season to the Eagles, Bears, Jets and Saints, who were using Teddy Bridgewater at quarterback. |
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| 09-13-20 | Bucs +3.5 v. Saints | 23-34 | Loss | -104 | 104 h 16 m | Show | |
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No team improved themselves more in the offseason than the Buccaneers. Tampa Bay went 7-9 last season, but two of those losses occurred in overtime and three other defeats were by four points or fewer. Now the Bucs have increased their respect level by adding Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski. Brady is going to produce points with receiving stars Mike Evans and Chris Godwin to go with a trio of very good tight ends - Gronkowski, O.J. Howard and Cameron Brate. Tampa Bay's offense can trade points with Drew Brees. While Brady received all the off-season attention, the Bucs maintained their underrated defensive front of Shaq Barrett, Jason Pierre-Paul and Ndamukong Suh. The Bucs ranked No. 1 in run defense last season and Barrett led the NFL in sacks. The Saints have a losing record in season-openers during Sean Payton's 14 years. They are 1-5 during their past six opening games and 0-10 ATS during the first two weeks of the season in the past five years.
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| 09-13-20 | Cardinals +7.5 v. 49ers | 24-20 | Win | 100 | 104 h 5 m | Show | |
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There will be times to back the 49ers this season. This isn't one of them. Not with all the players the 49ers may not have. They could be the most banged-up team in the NFL right now. The Cardinals were undervalued by the oddsmaker last season when they went 9-5-2 ATS and they are at the start of this season with this large of a spread. Kyler Murray displayed great potential last year. He'll make a jump in this his second season surrounded by stronger weapons, including top-five wideout DeAndre Hopkins. Arizona also looks much improved defensively. If you discount a meaningless 49ers defensive touchdown on the final play of the game, the Cardinals lost to San Francisco by a combined seven points last season, an average loss of 3.5 points. The 49ers are weaker this season and the Cardinals are stronger. These teams are familiar with each other. It can't be overlooked either that division 'dogs have covered 81 percent on opening week since 2014, a sampling of 27 games. |
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| 09-13-20 | Colts v. Jaguars +9.5 | 20-27 | Win | 100 | 100 h 27 m | Show | |
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You have to go back to 2006 to find the last time the Colts won a road opener. The Colts have had problems playing in Jacksonville's humidity losing during their past three visits by an average margin of 14.6 points. Philip Rivers is learning a new system. He's played his entire 14-year career with the Chargers. Rivers clearly is well past his prime. The Colts brought in Rivers figuring he would be an upgrade on Jacoby Brisset. They both had the exact same low passer rating, though, last season. Jacksonville's secondary is gutted, but its defensive front seven is respectable. Josh Allen is the best pass rusher on the field. The Jaguars have youthful talent on offense. These guys are hungry to make their mark. Maybe later in the season, the Jaguars might begin tanking. But not now. This is going to be very tough for the Colts to win their first Game 1 game in six years. Much tougher than the marketplace thinks.
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| 01-04-20 | Titans v. Patriots -4.5 | Top | 20-13 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 26 m | Show |
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So what did the Patriots' shocking home loss to the Dolphins in Week 17 mean besides hosting a wild-card game instead of getting a bye? It means line value on New England as I consider this number too short. Look for Tom Brady to step up as the weaknesses on Tennessee's defense - vulnerable to short passes and a banged-up secondary that ranks 24th in pass defense and 27th in quarterback hit rate - suit his strengths and that of the Patriots. Brady can still pick apart defenses that are vulnerable to short passes, which the Titans are. Sony Michel is running better and Julian Edelman is healthier than he has been giving Brady his security blanket. New England has much the superior defense. The Patriots surrendered the fewest points and yards in the NFL. Their run defense has looked good, too, holding opposing running backs to 3.5 yards per carry during the last five games. Derrick Henry and A.J. Brown are Ryan Tannehill's two major weapons. The Patriots can afford to bring their safeties into the box to help on Henry because cornerback Stephon Gilmore has the talent cover Brown one-on-one. Gilmore may have been the best defensive player in the NFL this season. Tannehill is unproven in big games such as this. He has a poor record, too, versus defensive guru Bill Belichk with a 4-7 mark, 11 interceptions and a 60.1 percent completion rate. The Titans also are bucking these monster numbers: The Patriots have covered 68 percent of their last 65 home games, are 7-2 ATS in their last nine playoff games and are 48-22-1 (69 percent) following a loss.
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| 12-29-19 | 49ers v. Seahawks +3.5 | Top | 26-21 | Loss | -110 | 50 h 49 m | Show |
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Seattle is far more experienced in big prime time game such as this and owns an eight-game win streak against the 49ers. The Seahawks are banged-up defensively, but are getting some of those players back, including Jadeveon Clowney. The 49ers also have key defensive injuries namely Kwon Alexander, Dee Ford and Jaquiski Tartt. The Seahawks have won a staggering 84 percent of their prime time games under Pete Carroll, including beating the 49ers, 27-24, on the road in a Week 10 Monday night game. The Seahawks have a monster edge at quarterback in a matchup of Russell Wilson versus Jimmy Garoppolo. The Seahawks took care of their injury situation at running back by bringing back Marshawn Lynch. They also have an underrated running back in Travis Homer.
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| 12-29-19 | Raiders v. Broncos -3 | 15-16 | Loss | -125 | 25 h 33 m | Show | |
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Not that the Raiders have any realisticchance for the playoffs, which they will know for sure when the early start time games finish, but they also aren't winning this game even if their morale isn't destroyed by being eliminated. The Broncos have gotten better under first-year coach Vic Fangio and rookie QB Drew Lock, winning three of their last four. Denver has revenge for a 24-16 opening week loss to the Raiders that set a bad tone for the first half of the season. Oakland has been terrible since late November going 1-4 with losses to the Jets, Chiefs, Titans and Jaguars. They have been outscored by 80 points during this span. The weather is expected to be in the 30s, which is bad news for Derek Carr. He's 0-9 the past nine times when playing in temperatures below 50 degrees with a passer rating of 65.9 compared to 94.7 in other games. Running back Josh Jacobs, the Raiders' best skill position player, isn't expected to play either because of a shoulder injury.
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| 12-29-19 | Steelers v. Ravens +2 | 10-28 | Win | 100 | 25 h 32 m | Show | |
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Baltimore is going to be resting starters, including Lamar Jackson. But the Ravens still are going to give a strong effort against their long-time hated division rival. Baltimore is riding an 11-game win streak on pace to become the first team in NFL history to average 200 yards both rushing and passing. The Steelers don't have the offense to beat this team on the road. Not with Duck Hodges behind center and missing James Conner and center Maurkice Pouncey. Ravens backup QB, Robert Griffin III, is a much better player than the extremely limited Hodges. Pittsburgh has managed just eight touchdowns on offense during its last seven games. That won't get the job done against a well-coached prideful Ravens team that would rather not enter the playoffs with a loss especially at home where they haven't lost since September.
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| 12-29-19 | Packers v. Lions +13.5 | 23-20 | Win | 100 | 21 h 6 m | Show | |
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Green Bay is traveling on a short week after a monster road win on Monday against the Vikings. The Packers simply need to win here not cover a margin. That's what happened in the first meeting when Green Bay was lucky to win at home. The Packers prevailed, 23-22, on a field goal at the gun. Green Bay was the recipient of several gift calls from the officials that aided them in that victory. The Lions will be motivated by revenge and a chance to close the season on a positive note. Having Kerryon Johnson back, their top runner, takes some of the load off David Blough. Green Bay isn't nearly as dominant as its 12-3 record may indicate ranking below average in both yards gained and yards allowed.
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| 12-22-19 | Cardinals +10.5 v. Seahawks | 27-13 | Win | 100 | 66 h 0 m | Show | |
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Should be a great game when the 11-3 49ers meet the 11-3 Seahawks to decide the NFC West Division. Oh wait, that's next week. Seattle can't help but be looking ahead to that crucial matchup. Problem is the Seahawks aren't good enough to cover this high of a number especially in a look-ahead spot. The Seahawks being eight games above .500 doesn't match their statistics and point differential. They have outscored their opponents by just 26 points on the season. Seattle only has 24 sacks, which ranks among the bottom-three. The Seahawks also have half a dozen injuries to key defenders, including underrated free safety Quandre Diggs. He carries a doubtful tag while Seattle's other banged-up defensive players are questionable. The Cardinals are adept offensively. They have scored 25 or more points in seven of their last 10 games. Kyler Murray is a poor man's Russell Wilson. His weapons match the Seahawks especially with Josh Gordon back on suspension and likely done in the NFL, which was a distraction for Seattle this week. The Seahawks have actually played better on the road. They have covered only twice during their last seven home games often overpriced like they are here. Arizona is 8-4-1 ATS as an underdog this season.
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| 12-22-19 | Panthers v. Colts -6.5 | 6-38 | Win | 100 | 63 h 34 m | Show | |
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Injuries and close decisions that didn't go their way ruined the Colts' season. But Indy is a well-coached solid team that almost always can be counted on to provide a strong effort under Frank Reich. The Colts are committed to finishing their year strong in an effort to reach .500. Not so with the rudderless Panthers. They are set adrift with Ron Rivera gone after nine seasons and playing the worst run defense in the league allowing an average of 6.3 yards per rush during their last three games. Carolina has surrendered at least three touchdowns in 10 consecutive games. That's the longest streak in the NFL. But what clinches this fade on the Panthers is Carolina's decision to start rookie Will Grier at QB. Grier was brutal during preseason with a 2-to-4 touchdown-to-interception ratio and taking seven sacks. He couldn't beat out Kyle Allen to back up Cam Newton and then couldn't replace Allen as Allen kept getting worse and worse. Now the Panthers are in what-the-heck mode turning to Grier for this road start. I would be highly surprised if this turned out to be a positive experience for him and Carolina.
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| 12-15-19 | Patriots -9 v. Bengals | Top | 34-13 | Win | 100 | 73 h 26 m | Show |
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Can the Patriots be beaten for a third straight game? Can the Bengals pull this off? You have to be kidding. Go back to 2002. That's the last time the Patriots lost three in a row. The Patriots have covered 71 percent of the time off a loss during the last 17 years under Bill Belichick going 41-17. The Patriots' last two losses have come to the Texans and Chiefs. The Bengals have the worst record in the NFL. New England has feasted on bottom-feeders posting seven victories by at least 14 points. Cincinnati is the second-lowest scoring team in the NFL averaging 15.2 points a game. Not once have the Bengals scored more than 23 points in a game. New England has the top defense in the NFL giving up the fewest yards, points and yards per play. Cincinnati also ranks second-to-last in total defense, last in rushing defense and gives up the most yards per play. Tom Brady is far more effective when his ground attack is working. New England isn't going to lack motivation either. Not only do the Patriots need to win to maintain a high playoff seeding, but there is bad blood after the the Bengals brought up a new "Spygate" mention to the attention of the NFL. |
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| 12-08-19 | Seahawks v. Rams +1 | 12-28 | Win | 100 | 98 h 3 m | Show | |
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Under the right circumstances, Jared Goff is a good quarterback. This is the right spot for Goff. He's home in California and the Seahawks don't generate a strong pass rush. Goff has the necessary weapons to light up the Seahawks' mediocre secondary with four quality wide receivers and Todd Gurley. The Seahawks are traveling on a short week after getting past the Vikings at home this past Monday. The Rams have covered five of the last seven times they've hosted Seattle.
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| 12-08-19 | Colts +3 v. Bucs | 35-38 | Push | 0 | 91 h 52 m | Show | |
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Better team getting points. That's it in a nutshell. The Colts also are getting back their best running back, Marlon Mack, and perhaps their top wide receiver, T.Y. Hilton. The Buccaneers are error-prone offensively with Jameis Winston remaining a model of inconsistency.The Bucs also rank 30th in scoring defense giving up 28.8 points a game. The Colts are much more solid in the trenches, too. Indy is 6-2-1 ATS in its last nine road games. Tampa Bay is 2-5-1 ATS the past eight times as a favorite, including 1-3 ATS this season
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| 12-08-19 | Dolphins v. Jets -5 | 21-22 | Loss | -105 | 91 h 49 m | Show | |
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The warm-weather Dolphins enter New York's December weather fat and happy having just upset the Eagles at home. This is a huge revenge game for Adam Gase against his former team. The Jets got caught peeking ahead to this matchup losing to the previously winless Bengals last Sunday. Expect a much more focused effort by the Jets in this game. Before getting upset by the Bengals, the Jets had reeled off three consecutive victories scoring 34 points in each of those games. If they hadn't lost to the Bengals, the line would be much higher. Now it's less than a touchdown. The Jets have the top run defense in the league. Their offense has much been better skill position people than Miami and their offensive line has showed improvement during the second half of the season.
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| 12-08-19 | Bengals +10 v. Browns | 19-27 | Win | 100 | 91 h 46 m | Show | |
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Cincinnati is bad. Cleveland is dysfunctional. Bottom line is this is too many points in a division rivalry game, especially considering the Browns are without their top defensive player, elite pass rusher Myles Garrett, and Baker Mayfield may not be 100 percent due to a sore throwing hand. The Bengals are consistently undervalued on the road. They are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 away contests. Cincinnati's confidence gained a huge boost with a victory against the Jets last Sunday. The Bengals can be counted on to give a full effort and their offense is upgraded with Andy Dalton back under center and speedster John Ross off the injured list. |
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| 12-05-19 | Cowboys -2.5 v. Bears | Top | 24-31 | Loss | -130 | 26 h 17 m | Show |
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The Cowboys are the more well-rounded team with far better skill position talent than the Bears. Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliot rate major edges on Mitch Trubisky and David Montgomery. The Bears haven't recovered from their London loss to the Raiders. They are 3-5 in their last eight games with their lone victories during this span coming against the Giants and Lions twice. Those teams have a combined record of 5-18. Trubisky has only played well against the Lions. He's been a stiff against every other opponent. Chicago's defense is down from last season and its offense has been hijacked by Trubisky's lack of progress. Chicago's run defense is prey to Elliott likley missing run-stuffing Akiem Hicks and linebacker Danny Trevathan. The Cowboys are the more motivated team. Dallas is that rare team that rates high in both offensive and defensive yards. The Cowboys average the most yards per game in the NFL and they surrender the eighth-fewest yards.
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| 12-01-19 | Patriots -3 v. Texans | Top | 22-28 | Loss | -110 | 127 h 56 m | Show |
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The Patriots' defense is putting up numbers not seen since the 2000 Ravens. I don't see the Texans, with their weak offensive line, lack of a ground attack and poor coaching, being able to solve New England's defense. New England is getting better offensively as more offensive linemen and wide receivers get healthy. The Texans have a slow, banged-up secondary and their pass rush took a massive hit with J.J. Watt sidelined for the season. Bill Belichick has had Bill O'Brien's number. The Patriots are 5-0 SU, 4-1 ATS versus the Texans since 2015. Belichick won't be adverse to running up a score, too. There is bad blood between these two teams after the Patriots filed tampering charges after the Texans tried to lure New England's director of player personnel, Nick Caserio, to be their general manager.
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| 12-01-19 | Jets v. Bengals +4 | 6-22 | Win | 100 | 120 h 7 m | Show | |
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The Dolphins scored their first win against the Jets. The winless Bengals can do the same. Cincinnati is much better at QB with Andy Dalton back in the starting role. Left tackle Cordy Glenn is back, too, for Cincinnati to shore up the offensive line. It's an added bonus if A.J. Green finally is ready to make his season debut. The Bengals haven't shown any quit holding the Steelers and Raiders to a combined 33 points the past two weeks, covering both games. Their morale should be up, too, with Dalton back under center. The Jets are in a flat spot traveling after beating up Oakland at home last Sunday. The Jets have won three straight - all against weak opponents in the Giants, Redskins and Raiders with two of those victories coming at home. New York is 1-4 on the road with its lone victory being against the Redskins. The Jets have been outscored by 63 points in their away defeats.
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| 11-28-19 | Saints -6.5 v. Falcons | Top | 26-18 | Win | 100 | 23 h 32 m | Show |
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The Saints have a legitimate claim to being the best team in the NFC. The Falcons are one of the worst. New Orleans has been great against the spread, too, covering seven of its last nine. One of those non-covers was an embarrassing straight-up home loss to Atlanta from three weeks ago. The Saints were two-touchdown favorites in that game. Now they are just a touchdown favorite. Is the Falcons' home field advantage worth that much? Of course not. The Saints won't have the starting left side of their offensive line with Terron Armstead and Andrus Peat out. But that didn't matter last week when Brees was sacked just twice in 41 dropbacks against the Panthers, who have a stronger pass rush than the Falcons. Brees has a very quick release and tremendous weapons. The Falcons have no answer for Michael Thomas, who is on a record-setting receiving pace. Matt Ryan is dealing with a worse offensive line and is down weapons with Mohamed Sanu traded, Austin Hooper out and backup running back Ito Smith also sidelined. The Falcons probably get back Devonta Freeman, but he's had a disappointing season. Ryan still could be dealing with a sore ankle. He's completed just 57.6 percent of his throws for 6.6 yards per attempt with a three-to-five touchdown-to-turnover ratio during his last four games.
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| 11-28-19 | Bills v. Cowboys -6.5 | 26-15 | Loss | -109 | 51 h 23 m | Show | |
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The visiting team has a huge disadvantage playing on Thursday night especially this late in the season. The Cowboys are the better team and given the situational circumstances, I see Dallas winning by more than a touchdown. Don't be fooled by Buffalo's 8-3 record. It's bogus. The Bills have played opponents whose combined record is 19-53. They haven't faced an offense the caliber of Dallas. The Bills rank third versus the pass, but are just average versus the run. That makes them vulnerable to Ezekiel Elliott. He should be in line for a big game, which in turn would make Dak Prescott very effective picking his spots. Prescott has three quality wideouts plus Elliott out of the backfield catching passes. Buffalo lacks explosiveness on offense to keep up. The Cowboys rank in the top-seven in total defense and scoring defense. They are extremely well-coached on the defensive side of the ball. I wouldn't be surprised to see Josh Allen make a lot of mistakes in this matchup.
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| 11-28-19 | Bears -2.5 v. Lions | Top | 24-20 | Win | 100 | 57 h 14 m | Show |
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The Bears have been a major disappointment this season. But the Lions are in worse shape. Detroit has dropped four in a row. The teams just met three weeks ago and Chicago won, 20-13. The Lions didn't have Matthew Stafford in that game and they won't have him Thursday. The Lions also aren't going to have second-stringer Jeff Driskel either. Driskel hurt his hamstring in the Lions' loss to the Redskins this past Sunday. So the Lions are forced to turn to rookie David Blough. He's never taken an NFL snap. Hopefully, you locked into this game early in the week like I did in anticipation of upward line movement. Even if you didn't, though, this is a kill spot for the Bears. Their defense should overwhelm the overmatched Blough. Chicago's defense ranks fourth in fewest points allowed and in fewest yards allowed. The Lions' defense, by contrast, ranks 29th in total yards and 26th in scoring defense. The Bears surrender 81 fewer yards per game than the Lions and nine fewer points a game. The Bears' biggest problem is Mitchell Trubisky. He plays well, though, against the Lions. Trubisky completed 16 of 23 passes for 173 yards and three touchdowns in the earlier victory against the Lions. Trubisky faced the Lions once last season and passed for 355 yards and three touchdowns in a 34-22 win. |
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| 11-25-19 | Ravens v. Rams +4 | Top | 45-6 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 14 m | Show |
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Lamar Jackson and the Ravens are a hot commodity. The Rams are struggling to make the playoffs at 6-4. The combination makes the Rams a good value play. LA has the defense, coaching smarts and offense to win this game straight-up. Oh, yes, the situation is perfect for them, too. Jared Goff is a quarterback you don't want to touch on the road especially in cold weather. But he and the Rams offense are a different animal at home especially against a defense that doesn't apply that much quarterback heat. Goff has all his receiving weapons back, too, with deep threat Brandin Cooks expected to play. The Rams have four quality wideouts plus Todd Gurley in the backfield. The Rams defense is strong with Jalen Ramsey shoring up the secondary and Aaron Donald having another dominating season in the trenches. Wade Phillips is in the argument for being the top defensive coordinator in the NFL. This is a unit that can control Jackson.
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| 11-24-19 | Steelers v. Bengals +7 | 16-10 | Win | 100 | 92 h 7 m | Show | |
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No, I don't like being on the Bengals. But laying this many points on the road with the punchless Steelers is much worse. Pittsburgh has a strong defense, playoff-caliber. But the Steelers aren't going to reach the postseason because Mason Rudolph is a stiff. Rudolph needs weapons and he's not going to have them here. Center Maurkice Pouncey is suspended. JuJu Smith-Schuster, Pitt's No. 1 wideout by far, is injured and won't play. I doubt James Conner, the Steelers' No. 1 runner, plays either. He missed last week and remains banged-up. Even when they had Ben Roethlisberger healthy, the Steelers still were bad on the road. They are 1-6 in their last seven road games, including 1-3 this season. The Steelers have the lowest road scoring percentage of possessions in the NFL. The Bengals should play hard trying to get their first win, being home and facing a much hated division opponent. So taking this many points looms large especially given the low total in this matchup.
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| 11-24-19 | Raiders v. Jets +3 | Top | 3-34 | Win | 100 | 92 h 6 m | Show |
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Jon Gruden has improved the Raiders this season. But he hasn't improved Oakland enough where it can cover as a road favorite in a flat spot like this. The Raiders are traveling cross-country for an early West Coast start time. Up next for Oakland is an AFC West showdown against the Chiefs. Under Gruden, the Raiders have failed to cover in eight of 12 away matchups. The Raiders need to establish a balanced attack. The Jets do one thing extremely well - stop the run ranking No. 1 in the NFL giving up fewer than 80 yards per game. Saquan Barkley managed just one yard on 13 carries against the Jets. That does not bode well for Josh Jacobs. Oakland is vulnerable through the air ranking 27th in pass defense. Sam Darnold has started to play better and has good receiving targets to take advantage. The Jets' strengths match up well to Oakland and New York also is in the superior situational spot.
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| 11-17-19 | Bengals +11.5 v. Raiders | 10-17 | Win | 100 | 117 h 50 m | Show | |
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I get that the Bengals remain the only winless team in the NFL and that their new QB, Ryan Finley, isn't even as good as Andy Dalton. But the Raiders aren't a team to lay this high of a number. Only once during the Jon Gruden era have the Raiders won a game by more than eight points. Oakland is in a flat spot, too, having narrowly won a huge home division game against the Chargers last week. This is the Raiders' third home game in a row. Finley could prove better now that he's had a start. He's going against the league's 30th-ranked pass defense. The Raiders are down their three best players in the secondary with safety Karl Joseph out with a foot injury. Earlier they lost safety Jonathan Abram to injury and traded cornerback Gareon Conley. It's a huge added bonus if the Bengals finally get the services of star wide receiver A.J. Green and offensive left tackle Cordy Glenn for the first time this season. The Bengals have been money-makers on the road covering in seven of their last nine road contests.
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| 11-17-19 | Jets +1.5 v. Redskins | 34-17 | Win | 100 | 114 h 31 m | Show | |
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The Jets do one thing exceptionally well and that's stop the run. They rank No. 2 in rush defense. The Redskins have become totally reliant on a ground-and-pound approach under interim coach Bill Callahan. That means heavy duty work for 34-year-old Adrian Peterson. This might be a sound approach - if it were 2012. Washington is force-feeding not-ready QB Dwayne Haskins. This reminds me of what the Browns experienced during their winless 2017 season when they kept trotting out overmatched DeShone Kizer at QB. The Jets have the superior skill position players. Sam Darnold is off to a slow start in this his second season. However, he still rates a strong edge on Haskins.
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| 11-11-19 | Seahawks +6 v. 49ers | Top | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 174 h 14 m | Show |
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Russell Wilson is the best QB in the NFL right now. I want Wilson going for me with this many points on the Monday Night Football center stage. Seattle has covered the last eight times it has been an underdog, including both times this season. The 49ers are the most improved team in the league. But now they have the bullseye and pressure on them to only win, but cover margins, too. They lack Seattle's prime time big-game experience and record. The Seahawks are well-balanced with a respectable ground attack and now three dangerous wide receiving targets for Wilson with Josh Gordon joining Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf. San Francisco suffered an unsung defensive injury with linebacker Kwon Alexander out for the year with a torn pec muscle. Alexander was the 49ers' second-leading tackler. The 49ers also have been missing their starting offensive tackles and star tight end George Kittle is doubtful. Seattle has dominated this series winning 10 of the past 11 meetings going 7-3-1 ATS. |
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| 11-10-19 | Chiefs v. Titans +6.5 | 32-35 | Win | 100 | 20 h 40 m | Show | |
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I'm taking the underdog Titans fully expecting Patrick Mahomes to play. If Mahomes doesn't, or is limited from his knee injury after being out just two weeks, so much for the better but I'm not counting on that. Instead I'm backing the Titans based on their merit, style of play and situation. The Titans are solid defensively. They've given up the sixth-fewest points per game in the NFL. Kansas City doesn't have an outstanding offensive line. Andy Reid is going to have to be more conservative in Mahomes' first game back from injury. This is a huge game for the Titans. They are two games behind in the AFC South Division and have a bye next week. Ryan Tannehill has been an upgrade on Marcus Mariota. The key, though, is the running of Derrick Henry. He's a powerful inside runner, who has a history of playing his best during November and December. The Chiefs rank 29th versus the run, surrendering 180 or more rushing yards four times this year. The Titans can maintain ball-control because of Henry keeping the Chiefs' high-octane offense off the field.
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| 11-10-19 | Falcons +14.5 v. Saints | 26-9 | Win | 100 | 20 h 31 m | Show | |
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The Saints are 7-1 fat and happy. The Falcons are 1-7 despondent and desperate. It's a division rivalry. The Falcons are off a bye and have Matt Ryan back. That's enough to get me involved taking two touchdowns. Atlanta actually averages more yards per game than New Orleans. Thanks to Ryan, who is having an excellent season, the Falcons lead the NFL in passing. Ryan has dangerous weapons with Julio Jones - who is in the argument for best wideout in the league - Calvin Ridley, Devonta Freeman and tight end Austin Hopper. Only once this season have the Saints won by more than 11 points. This should be a shooout and the Falcons have backdoor capabilities.
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| 11-03-19 | Patriots -3 v. Ravens | 20-37 | Loss | -103 | 54 h 28 m | Show | |
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Don't overthink this. Just ride New England until proven otherwise. The Patriots have covered 71 percent of their last 65 games! Bill Belichick should enter the Hall of Fame just on that number alone. A lot is being made of the Patriots going up against the most dangerous dual-threat QB in the NFL in second-year man Lamar Jackson. Turn it around, though. Jackson is going up against a Patriots defense that could be Belichick's all-time best. The Patriots are surrendering an NFL-low 7.6 points per game. They rank No. 2 in totals yards and passing yards. New England has intercepted at least one pass in each game and rank first in interceptions and sacks. Oh, yes, the Patriots have won the last 21 times they've gone against a first or second-year QB. John Harbaugh has been tough following a bye. The Ravens, however, haven't been a strong home team failing to cover in their past six home contests.
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| 11-03-19 | Bucs +6 v. Seahawks | 34-40 | Push | 0 | 50 h 15 m | Show | |
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Tampa Bay can pass the ball effectively and stop the run. Those are two key components when taking on the Seahawks. Seattle is heavily run-oriented. The Buccaneers give up just 68.6 yards rushing, best in the NFL. Tampa Bay's pass rush is upgraded, too, with the return of Jason Pierre-Paul. He'll team up with NFC sacks leader Shaq Barrett. Jameis Winston has strong receiving weapons. Seattle ranks 27th in pass defense and has injuries with safeties Tedric Thompson and newly acquired Quandre Diggs out. The Seahawks have only three sacks in their past four games. The Buccaneers have proven dangerous as road 'dogs already knocking off the Panthers and Rams. Seattle has failed to cover the past four times it has been a home favorite, including nearly losing to the Bengals and falling by 14 points to the Ravens two games ago.
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| 11-03-19 | Jets -3 v. Dolphins | 18-26 | Loss | -119 | 48 h 34 m | Show | |
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The Jets have looked bad lately facing two strong defenses, New England and Jacksonville. Now, though, the Jets are stepping all the way down in class. The Dolphins have the worst personnel in the NFL and they just lost one of their few good players in Pro Bowl cornerback Xavien Howard. The Jets have far more talent than the Dolphins. If there is one team Jets coach Adam Gase does not want to lose to it's his former team the Dolphins. Gase should know the Dolphins - or what is left of them - well having been Miami's head coach the previous three seasons. Miami is home, but on a short week having exerted a mental and physical effort in a Monday night road loss to the Steelers. All of Miami's losses, except the one to the Redskins, have been by double-digits.
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| 11-03-19 | Redskins v. Bills -9 | Top | 9-24 | Win | 100 | 48 h 4 m | Show |
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The Redskins are averaging 8.5 points in their last six games. They may get shut out by a strong and angry Bills defense that is coming off an embarrassing, 31-13, home loss to the Eagles last Sunday. Before that game, the Bills had held five of their first six foes to 17 points or fewer. I see Buffalo's defense rebounding in big fashion against rookie QB Dwayne Haskins, who is in line to make his first NFL start. Jay Gruden was right about Haskins in that the first-year QB isn't nearly ready. Haskins has a 34.5 passer rating with four interceptions in two cameo appearances. The Bills should stack the line to stop ancient Adrian Peterson forcing Haskins to make plays, which I don't see him doing. The Bills are very alive to come up with a pick-six or two. The Bills don't have a good offense. But Josh Allen can make plays with his feet and Buffalo should be operating from outstanding field position. The Bills do own two double-digit victories this season.
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| 10-27-19 | Packers v. Chiefs +4.5 | Top | 31-24 | Loss | -110 | 45 h 14 m | Show |
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OK, Patrick Mahomes isn't going to play. But the Chiefs are far from dead without Mahomes especially as a home 'dog in this price range. We can all agree Arrowhead Stadium is one of the tougher road venues. There should be unanimous agreement, too, that Andy Reid is an elite coach dangerous with extra prep time, which the Chiefs have from playing last Thursday. Veteran Matt Moore is one of the better backups in the league. I respect Moore because he throws downfield where many backups don't have the skill set to do anything except game manage and checkdown. Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill provide Moore with a top-two tight end and perhaps the premier deep threat in the league. This is just Green Bay's second road game in seven weeks. Aaron Rodgers has a career losing road record and isn't expected to have his top wide receiver, injured Davonte Adams.
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| 10-27-19 | Eagles +2.5 v. Bills | 31-13 | Win | 100 | 37 h 45 m | Show | |
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The records show 5-1 and 3-4. But it's the Bills who are the 5-1 team. Buffalo has a very solid defense. The Bills' offense scares no one, though. Buffalo has built its record by beating the Jets, Giants, Bengals, Titans and Dolphins. Combined record of those teams is 6-27. None of those foes is above .500. The Eagles opened 3-2 before losing consecutive road games to the Vikings and Cowboys. Philly was outmatched in those games. The Eagles won't be here. They also won't lack motivation after a humiliating national TV loss to the Cowboys unlike the Bills, who are fat and happy. Buffalo is heavily run-oriented. Bills second-year QB Josh Allen is turnover-prone. The Eagles have gotten healthier in the secondary and rank seventh in rush defense. They've been tough on every running back except superstar Ezekiel Elliott.
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| 10-27-19 | Jets +7.5 v. Jaguars | 15-29 | Loss | -140 | 37 h 38 m | Show | |
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The Jets aren't as good as they looked in beating the Cowboys two weeks ago. But they also aren't as befuddled as they looked this past Monday against the Patriots. New York's season stats are skewed because of the three games Luke Falk started. The Jets are much better with Sam Darnold behind center. The only ghost Darnold is going to see is the ghost of departed Jaguars cornerback Jalen Ramsey. Jacksonville's defense isn't as good without Ramsey, their top defensive back, and injured lineman Marcell Dareus. Jacksonville also is banged up at linebacker. Darnold has gone against the Bills, in a game the Jets lost by one point, Cowboys and Patriots. The Jaguars aren't as good as those teams. I fail to see the publicity match the skill set with Jaguars QB Gardner Minshew. He's thrown one TD pass in his last two games while failing to complete even half of his passes in those two games.
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| 10-27-19 | Giants +7 v. Lions | 26-31 | Win | 100 | 37 h 32 m | Show | |
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It seemed for a brief moment that the Lions might be better than mediocre this season. That moment has flickered away. The Lions are who they always have been - poorly coached, bad on defense, unable to run and adept at blowing leads. The Giants need to protect Daniel Jones better, but they don't lack for skill position weapons headed by the electrifying Saquan Barkley. He's in line for a huge game going against a beat-up Lions defense line that has injuries to Damon Harrison, Da'Shawn Hand and Mike Daniels. The Lions also are without their top cornerback, injured Darius Slay, and traded away safety Quandre Diggs. The Lions lack the pass rush to protect their now undermanned secondary. Detroit has yielded 430 or more yards in each of its last three games, the first time the Lions have done that in 11 years. The Lions' largest victory margin this season is three points. The Giants have covered eight of the last 10 times as a road 'dog. New York's defense can key on the pass as the Lions also lost their top running back, Kerryon Johnson.
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| 10-27-19 | Broncos v. Colts -4 | Top | 13-15 | Loss | -115 | 38 h 25 m | Show |
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If the Broncos thought they could make a successful run with Joe Flacco at quarterback they were sadly delusional. It took a 30-6 home loss to the Chiefs last Thursday to figure that out. Now, at 2-5, the Broncos know they are dead. Only seven teams during the last 40 years have made the postseason after opening 2-5. Emmmanuel Sanders, Denver's best wideout, got traded. Others are likely to follow before Tuesday's trade deadline concludes. Unless Dwayne Haskins becomes the Redskins new first-stringer, Flacco is the worst starting QB in the NFL. And Garett Bolles may be the worst offensive left tackle in the league. It's a lethal combination that sinks the Broncos' popgun offense that has failed to break 16 points in five of their seven games. The Broncos' defense is good, but not great. Certainly it's not nearly strong enough to carry such a putrid offense. The Colts have proven time after time under Frank Reich that they are legitimate. Indy's defense has back it's best playmaker, linebacker Darius Leonard, and top defensive back in free safety Malik Hooker. The Colts are balanced on offense with Jacoby Brissett coming off a confidence-building four-touchdown performance in a 30-23 home win against Houston last Sunday. When you factor in home field advantage and the Colts being without a major weakness, this line comes up short.
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| 10-21-19 | Patriots v. Jets +10.5 | Top | 33-0 | Loss | -130 | 121 h 7 m | Show |
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The Jets are a much different - and better - team with Sam Darnold at QB. They should be mentally ready to take on the Patriots off a confidence-building home victory against the Cowboys last week. Statistically speaking, the Patriots have the best defense in the NFL. Darnold has weapons, though, with Le'Veon Bell, deep threat Robbie Anderson and much underrated slot man Jamison Crowder. The Patriots' offense hasn't been that sharp. This has largely gone unnoticed because their defense has been so good and because of an easy schedule. New England, however, is banged up at wide receiver, deficient at tight end and weak at the offensive tackle spots. The Jets should be up for this game more than any other matchup all season being against their most hated division rival and at home on Monday night.
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| 10-20-19 | Eagles +3 v. Cowboys | 10-37 | Loss | -114 | 97 h 9 m | Show | |
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Why the Eagles? Better team getting points especially with Dallas not playing well losing to the Jets and Packers, who scored the first 24 points in that game. The Cowboys are dealing with key injuries. Both of Dallas' starting offensive tackles have been out the last couple of weeks. The Cowboys rely on Ezekiel Elliott to produce yardage on the ground, but the Eagles rank second in run defense. Dak Prescott isn't that effective in the air without his top wideout, Amari Cooper, who isn't expected to play. The Cowboys also could be minus their top cornerback, Byron Jones. He's dealing with a hamstring injury. The Eagles, on the other hand, are getting healthier as several of their cornerbacks could play after being out. This has been a road series with the visitor covering 11 of the last 15 times.
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| 10-20-19 | Saints v. Bears -3 | 36-25 | Loss | -120 | 93 h 15 m | Show | |
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I want the Bears going for me at home having had two weeks to stew about their embarrassing loss to the Raiders in London. The Saints are overdue for a loss. They are 5-1 with an average winning margin of 4.8 points. They have outscored their opponents by just six points in six games. Teddy Bridgewater is a game manager. He needs weapons. Unfortunately for New Orleans, Alvin Kamara is dealing with an ankle injury that may cause him to miss this game if not limit his effectiveness. The Bears are in the argument for having the best defense in football. This also is an off-surface for the Saints, who play on turf indoors not outdoors on grass.
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| 10-20-19 | Raiders v. Packers -5 | 24-42 | Win | 100 | 90 h 47 m | Show | |
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Kudos to the Raiders for maybe putting forth their best effort ever under Jon Gruden in upsetting the Bears two weeks ago in London. But I'm not sold on Oakland especially when playing away from home, which they will be doing for the fourth straight time. The Raiders are 3-8 SU, 4-7 ATS when not playing in Oakland under Gruden. It's easy to remember the Raiders' stirring performance across the pond. But earlier they were smashed, 34-14, by the Vikings on the road. Green Bay defeated the Vikings at home earlier this season. This is an early start time, too, for the Raiders. They are 1-6 SU and ATS the past seven times when playing at 10 a.m. PDT. All of those losses have been by at least seven points. Aaron Rodgers doesn't need Davante Adams to beat Oakland. Obviously it's a nice plus if Adams is over his toe injury that has caused him to miss the last two games. Rodgers, though, is an elite QB with a monster edge on Derek Carr, who is far more of a dink-and-dunker than gunslinger and lacks receiving weapons. Green Bay's defense is one of the most improved units in football ranking ninth in fewest points allowed. The Raiders average less than two sacks per game, are penalty prone and give up nearly 25 points a game.
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| 10-20-19 | Jaguars -4 v. Bengals | 27-17 | Win | 100 | 9 h 18 m | Show | |
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If the NFL draft were to take place today it would not be the Miami Dolphins picking first. Instead it would be the Bengals because they have the worst record in the NFL at 0-6. The Bengals aren't tanking, but they are as bad as Miami. Cincinnati ranks last in rushing and last in stopping the run. On top of this, the Bengals have cluster injury situations in their offensive line and secondary with both starting cornerbacks out. A.J. Green, their best wideout, remains sidelined. Some regard the Saints as the best team in the NFC. Yet the Jaguars were nearly a field goal favorite against New Orleans last week. The Jaguars are slightly more than a field goal favorite against the Bengals. Doesn't make sense. Yes, the Jaguars were home against the Saints. Cincinnati, though, has a minimal home field edge. The Jaguars have an above average defense. That's without star cornerback Jalen Ramsey, who missed the past three games. Ramsey getting traded could help the Jaguars' morale. He certainly won't be a distraction anymore. Jacksonville needs this game being two games out of first in the wide open AFC South Division. In their last five games, the Jaguars have defeated the Broncos and Titans while losing on the road to the Texans by one point and by seven to the Panthers. Jacksonville fell to the Saints by seven points at home last Sunday. The Jaguars are at their best when Leonard Fournette is gashing defenses. Fournette is having his best season averaging 5.1 yards a carry and ranking No. 2 in the AFC in rushing. The Bengals have allowed half of their opponents to rush for at least 250 yards. An effective Fournette sets up Gardner Minshew's play action passes. On top of all their injuries, the Bengals' defense carries a high fatigue rating. They were on the field for nearly 40 minutes and more than 80 snaps against the Ravens last week.
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| 10-20-19 | Cardinals v. Giants -3 | Top | 27-21 | Loss | -100 | 90 h 46 m | Show |
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The Giants are home, have a huge scheduling advantage and get back Saquan Barkley and Evan Engram. Barkley is a top-three running back and I rate Engram as a top-five tight end. The Cardinals have a porous defense ranking among the bottom-four in several key statistical categories, including yards allowed, points and pass defense. The return of cornerback Patrick Peterson from suspension is a plus for the Cardinals, but doesn't move the needle nearly enough. The Cardinals are coming off a 34-33 home victory against the Falcons. The Cardinals achieved the victory when normally reliable veteran Matt Bryant missed an extra point after the Falcons scored a touchdown with less than two minutes left. The Cardinals nipped the Bengals at the gun on a field gun two weeks ago. The Falcons and Bengals are a combined 1-11. The spread would be much higher here if the Cardinals held a 0-5-1 mark instead of a far more respectable 2-3-1 record. This also is Arizona's longest trip of the season and it's at an early West Coast start time. The Cardinals are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 Eastern Standard Time games. The Giants are on extra rest having played last Thursday.
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| 10-13-19 | 49ers v. Rams -3 | Top | 20-7 | Loss | -120 | 54 h 28 m | Show |
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The Rams are feeling heat from the Seahawks and 49ers having lost two in a row. So this becomes a crucial game. Sean McVay is the best coach in the NFC. Jared Goff has a history of playing much better at home. The 49ers are not used to taking on opponents who are extremely motivated to play them - until now. San Francisco is much improved as its 4-0 record attests. But do note those victories have come against the Buccaneers, Bengals, Steelers and Browns. The combined record of those teams is 5-15. LA is on extra rest having played last Thursday. The Rams are 7-1 ATS when having a rest advantage under McVay. The 49ers, on the other hand, are on a short week coming off a great Monday night home win against the Browns. Lost in the glare of the 49ers' dismantling of the Browns, though, was two key injuries - fullback Kyle Juszcyk and offensive right tackle Mike McGlinchey. Both are out long-term. Juszcyk may be the best fullback in the league. Compounding McGlinchey's injury is San Francisco already is minus star offensive left tackle Joe Staley. Aaron Donald should be in for a monster game. The Rams' defense isn't as down as some may perceive. LA's offense has been turning the ball over, which has put its defense in difficult field position. Jimmy Garoppolo doesn't have that much starting QB experience. He's going to face a heavy pass rush without his starting tackles. I don't see him keeping up with a high caliber Rams offense that should be well-designed with nine days to prepare under QB guru McVay. Todd Gurley may not play, but the Rams have two other good running backs. One of the keys to McVay's success has been a 10-3 division record. The 49ers are 2-10 against NFC West foes under Kyle Shanahan.
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| 10-13-19 | Eagles v. Vikings -3 | 20-38 | Win | 100 | 95 h 23 m | Show | |
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The Vikings are healthier and a better team than the Eagles right now. I also believe the Vikings' strong home field is worth more than the standard three points. So this line is short. Minnesota is 15-5 SU and ATS the last 20 times when laying five points or less at home. Kirk Cousins does his best work against bad teams and crippled secondaries. The Eagles have a cluster injury problem in their secondary. Cousins has a strong history versus Philadelphia, too, with a 101.2 career passer rating that includes 17 TD passes in eight games. The Eagles have to respect Dalvin Cook. So the Vikings are balanced and should have no problem moving the ball. Not so with the Eagles. Carson Wentz hasn't been sharp so far this season and he's squaring off on the road against an elite defense.
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| 10-13-19 | Bengals +12.5 v. Ravens | Top | 17-23 | Win | 100 | 96 h 45 m | Show |
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As bad as the Bengals are, the Ravens aren't nearly good enough to lay this big of a number in a division matchup. The Ravens' defense has surrendered 96 points in its last three games. They rank 29th in pass defense and are down several key members in their secondary, including Jimmy Smith and Tony Jefferson. It's become obvious how much Baltimore misses former defensive stalwarts Terrell Suggs and C.J. Mosley, both of whom departed via free agency. The Bengals have proven to be a feisty underdog covering five of the past six times in that role. They nearly beat Seattle and Buffalo straight-up on the road this season. Cincinnati is 4-1 ATS during its last five visits to Baltimore. The Ravens have failed to cover in their last five games and are 1-6 ATS the past seven times they have been favored. Their heavy reliance on running the ball makes them an especially poor choice to lay double-digits.
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| 10-07-19 | Browns +4 v. 49ers | Top | 3-31 | Loss | -115 | 118 h 47 m | Show |
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Burying the Ravens on the road last Sunday was huge for the Browns. Both from a confidence standpoint and also to reinforce their high talent level. Cleveland achieved that victory despite missing its starting cornerbacks, Denzel Ward and Greedy Williams. Both could return here. The 49ers can't match the Browns' skill position talent of Bakery Mayfield, Odell Beckham Jr., Jarvis Landry and Nick Chubb. Cleveland's offensive line has been a weak spot. But the 49ers are minus their top offensive lineman with left tackle Joe Staley out with a leg injury. Myles Garrett, who is in the argument for being the best pass rusher in the AFC, could be in line for a huge game. The 49ers are just 7-17 ATS in their last 24 home games since making the move to Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara. They haven't covered as home chalk in five years. I respect Kyle Shanahan. I think the 49ers are much improved. But they are not a playoff contender. Cleveland is. The Browns are the superior team catching points. The 49ers have a weak home field. So getting points is a nice bonus.
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| 10-06-19 | Vikings -4.5 v. Giants | 28-10 | Win | 100 | 140 h 28 m | Show | |
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Daniel Jones has provided a spark to the Giants. Since he replaced Eli Manning, the Giants have gone 2-0. Those victories, though, were against the Buccaneers and Redskins. Now Jones has to step way up in class and face an elite defense, the Vikings. Jones doesn't have much skill position support either with Saquan Barkley out. The Vikings are in an angry mood after losing to the Bears last week. Don't think for an instant the Giants defense is any good just because they held the impotent Redskins to three points this past Sunday. Kirk Cousins has a history of playing better versus weaker competition. Look for the Vikings to open things up more, too, against the Giants making better use of star wideouts Adam Thielen and Stefan Diggs to go with the dangerous Dalvin Cook in the backfield. The Giants are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 home games. The Vikings are at least two levels higher than the Giants and should win by double-digits.
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