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Eastern Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Miami plus the points over Boston at 8:30 pm et on Thursday.

As much as I'd like to see this series get extended (more basketball is always a good thing), I think there's a good chance we see the Heat close the Celtics out on Thursday. Incredibly, the ATS winner has won straight-up in 31 straight meetings in this series so a sprinkle on the Heat moneyline could be well worth your while. Regardless, we'll grab the generous helping of points with the underdog Heat here as the series shifts back to Boston for Game 5. Miami is on an incredible run right now having not lost consecutive games since a three-game skid from March 25th to 29th. The Heat have really locked in defensively, holding each of their last 13 opponents to 43 or fewer made field goals. On the flip side, the Celtics have made good on 43 or fewer field goals in 10 straight contests. I don't believe Boston's offensive ceiling is all that high in this particular matchup, noting that it has topped out at 46 made field goals against Miami this season and that came in a game where the Heat were without Jimmy Butler. Even in Game 4 two nights ago, when the Celtics brought their 'A' game, performing about as well as you could expect at both ends of the floor, they still won by 'only' 17 points, noting that the margin was 15 points before a meaningless bucket on the C's final possession. For its part, Miami couldn't have played much worse, connecting on just 34-of-78 field goal attempts. Here, we'll note that the Heat are 40-25 ATS as an underdog over the last two seasons, actually managing to outscore the opposition by an average margin of 0.4 points in that situation. Meanwhile, the Celtics are a long-term 91-123 ATS when coming off a double-digit road victory. Take Miami (10*).

Eastern Conference Finals Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Boston and Miami at 8:30 pm et on Tuesday.

Game 3 ultimately sailed 'over' the total thanks in large part to the lopsided nature of that contest. The game was actually well on track to stay 'under' the total until the floodgates opened in the final eight minutes or so of the fourth quarter. While most expect the Celtics to roll over on Tuesday, I do think we'll see them show some fight and that ultimately projects to a much tighter affair than we saw on Sunday. While the Heat did allow 98 field goal attempts in Sunday's victory, the Celtics could only connect on 39 of them. On the flip side, Miami shot the lights out, making good on 46-of-81 field goal attempts. I would anticipate seeing a similar tempo from the Heat here, noting that they've gotten off 88 or fewer field goal attempts in 12 of their last 15 contests. While the Celtics haven't lived up to expectations defensively this season, and allowed 46 made field goals in Game 3 of this series on Sunday, it is worth noting that they haven't allowed 46 or more successful FG attempts in consecutive games since November 30th and December 2nd and that was the only occasion in which they did all season. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is a long-term 103-64 with the Heat coming off a game in which they shot 55% or better from the field, as is the case here. The 'under' is also 205-159 with Miami checking in off a win by 15 points or more. Take the under (10*).

Western Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over Denver at 8:30 pm et on Monday.

After watching the Celtics roll over in embarrassing fashion last night, few are probably expecting much from the Lakers as they face elimination at the hands of the Nuggets on Monday. I actually think we will see some fight from Los Angeles here, noting that it has been competitive for the most part in this series and is in line for a strong bounce-back performance offensively following consecutive subpar showings. The Lakers have made good on just 36 and 38 field goals in their last two games and that's notable as they've been held to fewer than 40 made field goals in consecutive games just four times previously this season, averaging 41 made field goals in their next contest. While the Lakers have now lost three games in a row they haven't suffered a four-game losing streak since back in December. They've also been terrific in these playoffs following an ATS defeat, reeling off five straight ATS wins in that situation entering Monday's contest. Meanwhile, the Nuggets have now won five games in a row - their longest win streak since reeling off nine straight victories back in January. Denver is just 5-13 ATS when playing on the road following consecutive wins this season, outscored by an average margin of 5.6 points in that situation. The Nuggets are also 9-18 ATS when coming off three or more consecutive victories this season. Take Los Angeles (10*).

Conference Finals Game of the Year. My selection is on Boston minus the points over Miami at 8:30 pm et on Sunday.

The Celtics have dug themselves an 0-2 hole in this series but I don't think they're about to hit the panic button just yet. After all, there's no real intimidation factor in play as they head to Miami, where they've gone 5-2 in seven meetings since the start of last season including three double-digit victories. The fact that Boston has dropped consecutive games both SU and ATS is notable as it hasn't lost three straight contests since March 3rd to 6th. To find the last time the Celtics dropped the cash in more than two straight games you would have to go back to February 27th to March 5th when they lost four in a row ATS. The Heat have now won four straight meetings in this series. That's their longest winning streak in this matchup since way back in 2004. Here, we'll note that Boston is 12-2 ATS when coming off consecutive outright defeats as a favorite over the last three seasons, outscoring opponents by an impressive average margin of 11.2 points in that situation. The C's are also a long-term 145-109 ATS when playing on the road seeking revenge for consecutive losses against an opponent. Meanwhile, the Heat are 13-27 ATS off an ATS victory this season and 9-18 ATS when coming off consecutive SU wins. Take Boston (10*).

Conference Finals Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Denver at 8:30 pm et on Thursday.

These two teams went off for 258 combined points in Game 1 of this series on Tuesday. In my analysis prior to that contest I noted that the Lakers offensive ceiling would be considerably higher against the Nuggets (or had proven to be) than it was against the Warriors last round, with a similar floor. Los Angeles essentially hit that ceiling, or came awfully close, in the series-opener. In Game 2, I anticipate some regression with the Lakers likely falling closer to that typical 'floor' production level in this particular matchup. By that I mean Los Angeles had made good on 41 or fewer field goals in two of four regular season meetings in this series. The Lakers pace in Game 1 certainly wasn't indicative of the 126 points they ended up scoring as they actually got off only 84 field goal attempts in the contest. In fact, the Nuggets have now held four straight and 10 of their last 13 opponents to 88 or fewer field goal attempts. The Lakers, meanwhile, haven't gotten off more than 87 field goal attempts in a game since Game 2 against the Warriors last round (they scored a series-low 100 points in that contest). While the Nuggets hoisted up 91 FG attempts on Tuesday that type of up-tempo performance has been the exception rather than the rule. Generally-speaking, it's not easy to speed up Denver. To find the last time the Nuggets got off 90 or more FG attempts in consecutive games you would have to go back to March 31st and April 2nd and both of those contests actually stayed 'under' the total with Denver scoring just 93 and 112 points. After shooting the lights out in consecutive games going back to the series-clincher against the Suns last round, I'm anticipating some regression from the Nuggets here offensively. Keep in mind, in four regular season meetings between these two teams, Denver knocked down 'only' 42, 41, 39 and 46 field goals, scoring 122 points in the latter outlier performance in which they got off a whopping 99 FG attempts in early January (that game still totalled 'only' 231 points). Take the under (10*). Finally, we'll note that while the Lakers average 116.6 points per game overall this season, that number drops to 114.9 ppg when coming off consecutive ATS wins (22-game sample size), as is the case here. The Nuggets average 116.0 ppg this season with that scoring average dropping to 113.7 ppg when coming off three or more consecutive wins, which is also the situation here. Take the under (10*).

Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Golden State and Los Angeles at 10 pm et on Friday.

We're finally seeing a significant adjustment made to the total in this series, even after Game 5 ended up sneaking 'over' the closing number. I still feel Friday's total will prove too high. The Warriors went off offensively, knocking down 47-of-92 field goal attempts in Wednesday's victory. That was at home. They've made good on 43 or fewer field goals in five of their six playoff road games. On a similar note, the Lakers have now held their opponents to 36, 35, 42 (overtime game), 29, 36 and 40 made field goals in seven home playoff games (including the Play-In Tournament game against Minnesota). As I've mentioned throughout this series, while Los Angeles does have a fairly solid floor in terms of offensive production against the Warriors, it doesn't have a particularly high ceiling, topping out at 43 made field goals in nine matchups going back to the start of the regular season. Both teams are dealing with injury issues, as is often the case at this stage of the playoffs, with the Warriors listing Andrew Wiggins as questionable to play due to a rib injury and Anthony Davis probable after a possible concussion. I would anticipate both playing on Friday but certainly Wiggins - a key offensive contributor for the Warriors - won't be 100% healthy. As I've also noted throughout this series, the Warriors are on quite a defensive run having held 21 of their last 22 opponents to 44 or fewer made field goals with the 'under' going 12-10 over that stretch. Finally, I'll note that the 'under' is a long-term 36-17 with Golden State playing on the road off a double-digit win over a division opponent, as is the case here. Take the under (10*).

Western Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Golden State minus the points over Los Angeles at 10 pm et on Wednesday.

The Warriors saw their fourth quarter lead fizzle in Game 4 of this series on Monday and now they find themselves facing elimination as they return home for Game 5 on Wednesday. I expect them to answer back, noting they're off consecutive losses but haven't dropped three games in a row since March 15th to 18th. That also marked the last time they went three consecutive games without posting an ATS victory. Meanwhile, the Lakers have won back-to-back games and we've seen this story before in these playoffs as they're 0-2 SU and ATS when coming off consecutive victories, outscored by 17 and 27 points in those two contests. Also note that the Warriors are 12-3 ATS when seeking revenge for consecutive losses against an opponent over the last two seasons, outscoring foes by an average margin of 11.0 points in that situation. They're also 13-3 ATS when playing at home after losing four or five of their last six games over the same stretch, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by 9.4 points on average in that spot. The Warriors quite simply went cold from the field in the last two games but did manage to get off 91 field goal attempts in one of those contests while getting back to 40 or more made field goals in the other. They have been held to 40 or fewer made field goals in their last two games. On nine previous occasions where that occurred this season, they responded by averaging 121.8 points in their next contest. I like that Golden State continues to play well defensively, having limited seven straight and an incredible 20 of its last 20 opponents to 44 or fewer made field goals. While there is a fairly distinct offensive floor in place for the Lakers in this particular matchup, I don't believe their ceiling is all that high. Take Golden State (10*).

Non-Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Denver and Phoenix at 8 pm et on Sunday.

It seems like the oddsmakers are playing 'catch-up' with the totals in this series, making the usual adjustments after the fact but ultimately overreacting in hindsight (as is often the case). Game 1 saw 232 total points so the total was adjusted a couple of points higher for Game 2, which ended up reaching only 184 points. For Game 3, the total was adjusted considerably lower only for that contest to sail 'over' with 235 total points. Here, we're again working with a higher posted total and I believe it will prove too high. The Nuggets were baited into a much faster-paced affair than they probably would have liked in Game 3, hoisting up 97 field goal attempts themselves while allowing the Suns to get off 95. As we anticipated, Devin Booker and Kevin Durant relished the opportunity to play 'hero ball' down 2-0 in the series and with most counting them out with Chris Paul sidelined. The pair combined to knock down 32 field goals and score a whopping 86 points in the victory. I'm confident we'll see the Nuggets make the necessary adjustments here, noting that they had held 10 straight and an incredible 19 of their last 20 opponents to 44 or fewer made field goals prior to Phoenix knocking down 48 in that contest. As I mentioned, Denver got off 97 FG attempts in Friday's loss. You would have to go back to March 31st and April 2nd to find the last time it hoisted up more than 90 FG attempts in consecutive games though, and those previous two contests still totalled only 193 and 222 points. Phoenix didn't look good defensively in Game 1 of this series but has held Denver to just 36 and 43 made field goals in two games since. Note that the Suns have limited 30 of their last 37 foes to 43 or fewer made field goals. While Phoenix went off in Game 3, it had previously been held to 43 or fewer made field goals in five consecutive meetings in this series. Take the under (10*).

Non-Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Phoenix minus the points over Denver at 10 pm et on Friday.

The word 'sweep' is being thrown around quite a bit as this series shifts to Phoenix with the Suns licking their wounds following consecutive double-digit losses in Denver. Yes, the Suns are in tough with Chris Paul sidelined, likely for the next three games, due to a groin injury suffered in Game 2. His absence likely means more time with the ball in the hands of Devin Booker and Kevin Durant and I don't think it's a stretch to say that duo is likely relishing the opportunity to play 'hero ball' on Friday night. Cam Payne and Damion Lee project to absorb Chris Paul's minutes. Both struggled mightily in Game 2 of this series but I'm confident they can bounce back at home. Payne in particular has shown flashes of brilliance over the course of his young career and this is obviously a big opportunity to showcase his talent. While the Nuggets have won consecutive games to open this series, they're heading into uncharted territory now, having now won more than two meetings in a row against the Suns since 2019-20 when they reeled off five straight victories in this series (3-2 ATS). Here, we'll note that Denver is a long-term 126-169 ATS when playing on the road after winning its last two games ATS. Worse still, the Nuggets check in 6-17 ATS when coming off consecutive double-digit wins over the last three seasons. Phoenix on the other hand has gone 28-15 ATS when seeking revenge for a double-digit loss against an opponent over the last three seasons, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 7.8 points in that situation. Take Phoenix (10*).

Second Round Game of the Year. My selection is on Golden State minus the points over Los Angeles at 9 pm et on Thursday.

The Lakers stunned the Warriors by a score of 117-112 in Game 1 of this series on Tuesday as Golden State had an awful shooting night and ultimately fell just short. I'm confident we'll see the Warriors bounce back in Game 2 on Thursday. Note that Golden State got off a whopping 106 field goal attempts in the series-opener. That marked the sixth time since February 23rd that the Warriors hoisted up 100 or more field goal attempts. The Lakers haven't had the ability (or interest) in limiting their opponents' scoring opportunities, yielding 90 or more field goal attempts in 10 of their last 14 contests. Give a team as talented as the Warriors enough opportunities and they're going to take advantage and I think we'll see that on Thursday. On the flip side, Golden State allowed Los Angeles to knock down 43-of-92 field goal attempts in Game 1 of this series. Interestingly, the Warriors have now held 17 of their last 18 opponents to 44 or fewer made field goals. That's impressive when you consider each of their last 14 opponents have gotten off 90 or more FG attempts. Here, we'll note that Golden State is 32-18 ATS when seeking revenge for consecutive losses against an opponent over the last three seasons, as is the case here (the Lakers have actually won four straight meetings in this series). While the Warriors have averaged 118.6 points per game this season, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 1.7 points, they've scored an average of 120.3 points per game while outscoring the opposition by 9.2 points on average when coming off an ATS loss (15-6 ATS in that situation). Finally, the Lakers are 15-29 ATS when coming off consecutive ATS victories over the last three seasons, which is the situation here. Take Golden State (10*).

Eastern Conference Second Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Philadelphia and Boston at 8 pm et on Wednesday.

Game 1 of this series sailed 'over' the total witb both teams shooting the lights out in a 119-115 76ers victory in Boston. I expect a much different story to unfold on Wednesday. The pace certainly didn't dictate such a high-scoring affair in the series-opener. Philadelphia hoisted up 89 field goal attempts while Boston got off just 75 in a stunning home defeat. Note that the 76ers knocked down 45 field goals - just the fourth time in their last 17 games that they managed to connect on more than 42 field goals. On the flip side, the 44 made field goals they allowed served as the first time in six games they yielded 40 or more successful field goal attempts. In fact, Philadelphia has still limited 18 of its last 23 opponents to 44 or fewer made field goals. While Boston hasn't been as stout defensively as we've become accustomed to seeing in these playoffs, I am confident it can bounce back from Monday's poor showing in Game 2. Note that the Celtics have held 18 of their last 21 opponents to 45 or fewer made field goals - not a bad high-water mark in that department when you consider they've allowed 89 or more FG attempts in 10 straight and 14 of their last 15 contests. As I've noted previously in these playoffs, the C's have been yielding too many scoring opportunities but the 76ers are unlikely to continue to push the pace the way they did in Game 1, noting they've hoisted up fewer than 90 FG attempts in 13 of their last 16 games and average just 84 FG attempts per game this season. Finally, we'll note that the Celtics are heading into uncharted territory having matched their longest 'over' streak of the season at five games. Interestingly, the only previous time they posted five consecutive 'over' results, their next game stayed 'under' the total against these same 76ers. Take the under (10*).

Western Conference Second Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Los Angeles and Golden State at 10 pm et on Tuesday.

Both of these teams wrapped up round one of the NBA Playoffs with consecutive 'under' results. In fact, the 'under' went 4-1 in the final five games of the Lakers 4-2 series win over the Grizzlies. The 'under' cashed in four of the last six games in the Warriors 4-3 series victory over the Kings. I expect a different story to unfold in Game 1 of this Western Conference semi-final round series on Tuesday, however. Both of these teams invite up-tempo play from the opposition. Interestingly, the Lakers allowed 93, 106 (aided by overtime), 99 and 96 field goal attempts over their last four games against the Grizzlies. Memphis was simply unable to take advantage of its wealth of scoring opportunities, running cold at the absolute worst time (the Grizzlies made good on 44 or fewer field goals in all six contests). I don't expect the Warriors to suffer the same fate. The ramped up offensively as the series went on against the Kings, knocking down 40 or more field goals and hoisting up 90 or more field goal attempts in four of the final five games in the opening round. In fact, Golden State has gotten off 90 or more field goal attempts in nine of its last 12 contests and has hoisted up 100 or more FG attempts on five different occasions since February 23rd. On the flip side, the Warriors have yielded 90 or more FG attempts to their opponents in an incredible 13 straight games. With the Lakers rounding into form offensively, making good on more than 40 field goals in 11 of their last 14 contests and getting off 90 or more FG attempts in 11 of their last 13 overall, I believe this game sets up as a potential track meet. Keep in mind, the Lakers - despite not always being at full strength - managed to knock down 40 or more field goals in all four regular season meetings with the Warriors. Meanwhile, Golden State had little trouble finding looks, hoisting up 99, 96, 105 and 91 FG attempts in those four matchups. In eight meetings between these two teams since the start of last season, the low water mark in terms of points scored for either team was 103 with both teams putting up more than 110 points in five of those eight contests. Take the over (10*).

Eastern Conference First Round Game of the Year. My selection is on Milwaukee minus the points over Miami at 9:30 pm et on Wednesday.

The Heat pulled off an improbable home sweep of the Bucks in Games 3 and 4 of this series and head to Milwaukee with a commanding 3-1 series lead. I expect the Bucks to answer back on Wednesday, however. Consider Game 4 of this series the 'Jimmy Butler Game' as he went off for 56 points with the rest of the Heat players essentially left to play bit parts. Despite being held to 87 field goal attempts or less in all four games in this series, the Heat have scored above their season scoring average in all four contests thanks to knocking down 50, 45, 45 and 43 field goals. Interestingly, Game 4 was actually their worst shooting performance of the series yet they won in a rout. Here, I'm confident we'll see a positive response from the Bucks defensively. Note that prior to this series, Miami had made good on 43 or fewer field goals in 25 of its previous 30 contests. Despite the loss in the same situation in Game 4, the Bucks are still 11-2 ATS when coming off an outright loss as a favorite this season, averaging well north of their season scoring average with 120.0 points per game in that situation. When coming off consecutive ATS losses this season (12-game sample size), as is the case here, Milwaukee has averaged 123.9 points per game. In the long-term picture, the Bucks are 71-46 ATS when playing at home off consecutive defeats. This has typically been a poor spot for the Heat this season as they're a woeful 1-10 ATS when coming off four wins in their last five games, averaging only 104.8 points per game in that situation. Over the last two seasons, the Heat have gone 4-14 ATS when playing on the road after winning four or five of their last six contests ATS, as is the case here, averaging a similarly poor 104.9 ppg along the way. Take Milwaukee (10*).

Division Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and Denver at 9 pm et on Tuesday.

This play sets up similarly to when we (successfully) backed the 'over' in Game 2 of this series last week. Remember, the series-opener was exceptionally low-scoring with just 189 total points scored but as expected, Game 2 was much higher-scoring, reaching into the low-230's. Note that the 'under' hasn't cashed in consecutive meetings in this series since back in May and October 2021. Since then, the two teams have matched up 11 times with the 'over' going 8-3. While we did win with the 'under' in Game 4 of this series on Sunday, it wasn't easy as overtime nearly toppled the total. Of course that contest reached only 192 points in regulation time. As I've noted previously in this series, the Timberwolves have been one of the most productive 'fast break' teams in the league this season - top-eight in the league in fast break points during the regular season, in fact. While injuries have played a factor, they've played far too slow in this series. However, with some life following Sunday's overtime win, I do expect Minnesota to play with 'house money' on Tuesday and push the pace more than we've seen. Karl-Anthony Towns' two highest-scoring games of this series have come in the last two contests. The sudden absence of Kyle Anderson means more scoring opportunities for the likes of Towns and Anthony Edwards, which isn't necessarily a bad thing. On the flip side, the Nuggets are heavily-favored for a reason here. Note that while they average 115.7 points per game overall this season, that number bumps up to 118.5 when coming off a road loss (22-game sample size), resulting in an average total of 229.4 points in that situation. While it was aided by overtime on Sunday, Denver has now knocked down more than 40 field goals in all four games in this series. Finally, we'll note that the 'over' is 22-10 with the Nuggets playing at home seeking revenge for a road loss against an opponent over the last three seasons, leading to an average total of 233.3 points in that spot. In fact the 'over' is 58-36 with Denver coming off a loss over the same stretch and a long-term 176-139 when the Nuggets check in off an outright defeat as a favorite, which is the situation here. Take the over (10*).

First Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Memphis and Los Angeles at 10 pm et on Monday.

We won with the 'over' in Game 1 of this series last Sunday but have stayed idle from a totals perspective since with the 'under' cashing in the last two games. I'm anticipating a much higher-scoring affair than we saw on Saturday, when the Lakers prevailed by a 111-101 score. The Grizzlies have shot poorly in consecutive games, knocking down just 38 and 35 field goals. The pace was certainly there for a higher-scoring contest on Saturday as Memphis hoisted up 93 field goal attempts and Los Angeles got off 90. Note that the last time the Grizzlies were held to fewer than 40 made field goals in consecutive games was way back on February 5th and 7th. In their next game they went off for 49-of-84 shooting in a 128-point outburst against Minnesota. Prior to that they were held to 39 and 36 made field goals on December 25th and 27th, respectively, before knocking down 48 in a 119-point effort against Toronto. The week previous to that they were held to fewer than 40 made field goals in consecutive affairs before connecting on 45 in a 125-point performance against Phoenix. You get the picture. The Lakers responded following a poor offensive showing in Game 2 by making good on 41-of-90 field goal attempts for 111 points on Saturday. Note that the Grizzlies have now allowed seven of their last eight and 12 of their last 14 opponents to knock down more than 40 field goals. Neither team has been able to slow down its opposition with any sort of consistency with Memphis allowing 90 or more FG attempts in nine of its last 12 games and Los Angeles yielding 89 or more FG attempts in eight of its last 10 contests. We've now seen consecutive matchups in this series stay 'under' the total and that's notable as you would have to go back to late 2020-early 2021 to find the last time three straight meetings stayed 'under'. The last time we saw consecutive 'under' results in this series was on December 9th and 29th of 2021 and the next matchup resulted in a whopping 246 total points right here in Los Angeles. The Grizzlies average 116.5 points per game this season but that number rises to 117.1 when coming off a game in which they scored 105 points or less (17-game sample size), as is the case here, with that situation producing an average total of 228.6 points. Similarly, the Lakers average 116.8 points per game this season but that scoring average increases to 117.3 when coming off an 'under' result (39-game sample size), leading to an average total of 232.8 points in that spot. Finally, we'll note that you would have to go back to February 15th to March 3rd - when the Grizzlies posted an 0-5-1 o/u mark - to find the last time Memphis was involved in more than two 'under' results in a row. Meanwhile, the Lakers last posted a three-game 'under' streak from March 15th to 19th with the 'over' going 10-4 in their 14 games since. Take the over (10*).

Pacific Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Golden State minus the points over Sacramento at 10 pm et on Thursday.

The Warriors have had no answers for the aggressiveness of De'Aaron Fox and Malik Monk through two games in this series. While the sudden absence of Draymond Green (due to suspension) doesn't figure to help matters, I actually think Golden State can spin it into a positive as it returns home in an 0-2 hole on Thursday. The absence of Green should mean more minutes for the likes of Donte DiVincenzo, Jonathan Kuminga and Gary Payton Jr, all of which can help out on defense but also provide more of a spark offensively. Here, we'll note that the Warriors have gone 14-6 ATS when playing at home off an ATS loss this season, averaging 120.6 points per game (compared to their home season scoring average of 119.7 ppg) while outscoring opponents by an average margin of 8.8 points in that situation. Better still, Golden State is 25-13 ATS at home off a loss of any kind over the last two seasons, outscoring the opposition by 9.6 points on average in that spot. While the Kings have averaged 118.0 points per game on the road this season, that number drops to 115.4 when checking in as a road underdog. Sacramento enters this game off consecutive wins but hasn't won three straight contests since March 15th to 18th and all three of those victories came against Eastern Conference opponents. Despite their poor start in this series, the Warriors check in 8-4 ATS over their last 12 games having not dropped three in a row since, coincidentally, March 15th to 18th. While Golden State has obviously struggled to defend Sacramento at times in this series, I do think the Warriors deserve credit for their defensively play in recent weeks. Note that Golden State has held 12 straight opponents to 44 or fewer made field goals, despite nine of those foes getting off 90 or more field goal attempts. In stark contrast, the Kings have allowed 12 of their last 14 opponents to shoot 47% or better from the field. That's concerning when you consider that the Warriors have gotten off 90 or more FG attempts in five of their last seven games and have knocked down more than 40 field goals in 14 of their last 17 contests. In other words, I don't believe the sky is falling in San Francisco and expect the defending champions to get back in this series on Thursday. Take Golden State (10*).

Northwest Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and Denver at 10 pm et on Wednesday.

We saw an incredibly low-scoring (by today's NBA standards) series-opener between these two teams on Sunday as the Nuggets cruised to a 109-80 victory. I certainly expect to see a positive response from the Timberwolves offensively on Wednesday. Note that Minnesota has scored 107, 112, 109, 123 and 119 points after being held under 100 points in its previous game this season. It's also worth mentioning that the T'Wolves have averaged 118.7 points per game when seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent this season compared to their overall season scoring average of 115.2 points per game. After hoisting up only 81 field goal attempts despite trailing most of the way on Sunday, I expect the T'Wolves to make a concerted effort to push the pace here, noting they rank eighth in the league in fast break points per game this season. Of course, the Nuggets are favored by a generous helping of points for a reason. They've been considerably better offensively at home compared to on the road this season, averaging 119.1 points per game. They didn't have to be great offensively to win handily in Game 1 but I do think they'll get pushed a little more here. Note that they enter this game having knocked down more than 40 field goals in six straight and 15 of their last 17 games overall. Meanwhile, Minnesota hasn't had much success controlling its opponents' tempo, allowing eight of its last nine opponents to hoist up 90 or more field goal attempts. Take the over (10*).

Eastern Conference First Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Atlanta and Boston at 7 pm et on Tuesday.

Game 1 between these two teams on Saturday was an interesting affair that saw one quarter (the fourth) total only 42 points but another reach a whopping 70 points (the second). That contest ultimately cruised well below the total as both teams were inconsistent offensively. I expect a different story to unfold in Game 2 on Tuesday, however, as the Hawks look to punch back while the Celtics try to grab a 2-0 strangle-hold before the scene shifts to Atlanta. One thing is for sure, the Hawks are going to get their scoring opportunities. In four meetings in this series this season, Atlanta has hoisted up 101, 100, 97 and 98 field goal attempts. Saturday's game marked a low-water mark as the Hawks made good on just 42 of those attempts. It's highly unlikely we'll see them shoot as poorly as they did on Saturday from beyond the arc (5-of-29 on three-point attempts). The problem is, even if Atlanta is able to do a much better job of taking advantage of its opportunities offensively, the Celtics are in line for some positive regression offensively as well and aren't likely to take their foot off the gas the way they did in the second half on Saturday. After scoring 74 points in the first half, Boston produced a miserable 38 points in the second half, actually letting the Hawks back into the game in the fourth quarter. Jaylen Brown clearly struggled after re-aggravating the laceration on his hand while Jayson Tatum scored well below his season average with 25 points on 10-of-23 shooting. Even going down the line, guys like Al Horford and Malcolm Brogdon made only minimal offensive contributions (11 points combined). Given the Hawks have now allowed more than 40 made field goals in 22 of their last 24 games and 40 or more in 26 of their last 28 contests, the Celtics are well-positioned to go off here. While Boston is still a terrific defensive team, we have certainly witnessed a shift this season with it yielding far more scoring opportunities thanks in large part to playing at a faster pace. The C's enter this game having allowed 90 or more field goal attempts in eight of their last nine contests. On the flip side, they've hoisted up 88 or more FG attempts themselves in 11 of their last 12 games. The Hawks have seen their last two games stay 'under' the total. While they've recorded 'under' streaks lasting three games or more on five previous occasions this season, I think their totals are being over-adjusted at this point. For instance, their most recent three-game 'under' streak from March 26th to 31st saw all three contests total at least 231 points. Prior to that, a three-game 'under' streak from March 17th to 21st saw all three games reach at least 236 points. You get the idea. Take the over (10*).

Pacific Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Golden State and Sacramento at 10 pm et on Monday.

The first game in this series breezed 'over' the total thanks to a parade to the free throw line with the two teams attempting a combined 59 shots from the charity stripe. Even with that in mind, they still 'only' eclipsed the total we're working with on Monday by nine points. Note that the 'over' has now cashed in each of the Warriors last two games. They haven't posted three straight 'over' results since the first week of February and even during that stretch they didn't see three consecutive games go 'over' the total we're working with here. While neither team is known for its defense, it's worth noting that the Warriors have held 11 straight opponents to 44 or fewer made field goals while the Kings have limited five straight and eight of their last nine foes to that number or less. So in a sense we are dealing with a somewhat limited ceiling for the two offenses here. I certainly expect the Warriors to make some adjustments as they look to contain Malik Monk in particular after he went off in Game 1. On the flip side, Golden State could be without Jordan Poole for this game after he was limited due to injury in the series-opener. Gary Payton Jr. saw extended floor time with Poole struggling on Saturday with the former being more of a key defender than an offensive contributor. While the Warriors did shoot just 16-of-50 from three-point range on Saturday, that's not necessarily unexpected as they average 16 made threes per game on the road while the Kings have held the opposition to just 13 makes per game from beyond the arc here at home. Finally, I'll point out that we haven't seen consecutive matchups in this series go 'over' the total over the last 10 meetings. The last time that did occur was back in January and March of 2021. Take the under (10*).

Western Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Oklahoma City and New Orleans at 9:30 pm et on Wednesday.

Both of these teams enter this play-in matchup on the heels of consecutive 'under' results but I look for a different story to unfold on Wednesday night in New Orleans. The Thunder have been relentlessly pushing the pace regardless who has been in or out of the lineup in recent weeks, hoisting up 90 or more field goal attempts in 11 of their last 15 games and 92 or more in 10 of those contests. Unfortunately it has come at the expense of their defensive play it seems as they've allowed 12 of their last 13 opponents to knock down 40 or more field goals. While not known for their offensive prowess, the Pelicans appear well-positioned to take advantage having made good on 40 or more field goals in 14 of their last 18 games overall. While New Orleans got into this play-in tournament thanks in large part to its terrific defense down the stretch, we did see a three-game lull in which it yielded 42, 46 and 50 made field goals earlier this month. It followed that up by holding the Knicks and T'Wolves to just 38 and 39 made field goals in its final two regular season contests but those two opponents still managed to score 105 and 113 points. The Pelicans figure to have their hands full here, noting that the Thunder have averaged an impressive average of 124.5 points per game when coming off four or five ATS losses in their last six games this season, as is the case here. Note that the 'over' has gone 11-3 in that situation, resulting in an average total of 243.7 points scored. Take the over (10*).

Play-In Tournament Game of the Year. My selection is on Atlanta plus the points over Miami at 7:30 pm et on Tuesday.

The Heat easily disposed of the Hawks in the opening round of last year's Playoffs and while it's been a long time coming, Atlanta finally has a chance to get its revenge when it really matters in Tuesday's Play-In Tournament opener. Yes, these two teams met four times during the regular season with Miami taking three of those four contests as well. The Hawks know they can hang with the Heat though. Their back-to-back losses here in Miami in early March came by a combined 10 points. Interestingly, the Heat were favored by only 2.5 points in the latter of those two contests. Here, Atlanta is arguably healthier than it was then - the healthiest it has been all season in fact. While the Hawks do come in off consecutive losses, their final regular season affair was a throwaway game against the Celtics where their starters sat. Prior to dropping their final two regular season contests they had won three games in a row. They enter this game having made good on 43 or more field goals in five straight games and more than 40 in an incredible 17 of their last 18 contests. While the Heat are known for their defense, they actually haven't held an opponent to fewer than 100 points since February 27th. You would have to go all the way back to mid-January to find the last time they held an opponent under 100 points and won by more than four points. Interestingly, Miami was actually held under 100 points itself in three of its last 11 regular season contests. While the Hawks are by no means an elite defensive team and haven't been in recent years, you would have to go back a whopping 18 meetings in this series to find the last time Miami knocked down more than 43 field goals. The Hawks breezed past that mark in two of the last three matchups in this series. Finally, we'll note that Atlanta is 16-4 ATS when coming off consecutive ATS losses this season, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by an impressive average margin of 10.0 points. Meanwhile, the Heat check in a miserable 1-9 ATS when coming off four wins in their last five games this season, which is the situation here, outscored by 8.3 points on average in that spot. Take Atlanta (10*).

Atlantic Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Toronto and Boston at 7:40 pm et on Friday.

We saw a very low-scoring game by today's NBA standards between these two teams on this same floor two nights ago as the Celtics scrapped their way to a 97-93 victory in a tough back-to-back situation. Here, I expect a lot more offense as the two teams get ready for the postseason but perhaps lack defensive intensity with little to play for at this point. The Raptors will certainly want to get back on track offensively after a dismal showing on Wednesday. They shot 6-of-33 from three-point range in that contest, noting that they average 11 made threes per game this season. The pace was still there as they hoisted up 90 field goal attempts in the loss. Note that they've gotten off 90 or more field goal attempts in five of their last seven games overall. The Celtics are coming off consecutive poor offensive performances, including a 38-of-91 showing from the field in Philadelphia on Tuesday. Like the Raptors, the Celtics have continued to push the pace here late in the season, hoisting up 89 or more FG attempts in each of their last eight contests. While Boston is thought of as an elite defensive team, that hasn't necessarily been the case lately as it has allowed five of its last six opponents to get off 90 or more FG attempts and allows an average of 42 made field goals per game at home this season. The C's could be without two of their top defenders on Friday with Derrick White and Marcus Smart questionable to play as they employ some 'load management' in the late going. Take the over (10*).

Western Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Portland and San Antonio at 8:10 pm et on Thursday.

Both of these teams have struggled at the best of times defensively and neither has much incentive to ratchet up the defensive intensity for Thursday's 'meaningless' matchup in San Antonio. With that being said, both teams are coming off 'under' results last time out and I feel that's affording us a very reasonable total to work with on Thursday. The Blazers have actually found some rhythm offensively despite missing so many key contributors. They've knocked down 40, 43 and 42 field goals over their last three games and have been comfortable pushing the pace more than they had been previously, hoisting up 85, 93 and 97 field goal attempts in those most recent three contests. They'll have a prime opportunity to build on those encouraging performances in San Antonio on Thursday as the Spurs have been sieve-like defensively, allowing 43 or more made field goals in an incredible 12 straight and 15 of their last 16 games overall. The only reason they gave up 'only' 43 made field goals last time out was due to the lopsided nature of their game against the Suns (Phoenix attempted only 89 field goals). In what projects as a much closer affair here, we can anticipate the Blazers getting well into the 90's in terms of FG attempts. The Spurs had their streak of three straight games knocking down at least 42 field goals snapped last time out. They'll take a major step down in class after facing the Suns in that matchup, however. Portland has allowed six of its last seven opponents to make good on at least 41 field goals despite four of those foes getting off 87 or fewer FG attempts. Note that the Spurs have hoisted up 90 or more FG attempts in seven straight and 10 of their last 11 games overall. Take the over (10*).

Central Division Game of the Year. My selection is on Chicago plus the points over Milwaukee at 7:40 pm et on Wednesday.

We'll fade the Bucks off consecutive double-digit wins over the 76ers and Wizards as they return home in a back-to-back spot on Wednesday night. Chicago is in a back-to-back situation of its own after dropping a lopsided home decision against the Hawks last night. I can't help but feel the Bulls overlooked a Trae Young-less Atlanta squad. The Hawks were actually held to just 86 field goal attempts in that game - the eighth straight contest in which Chicago limited the opposition to 86 or fewer field goal attempts - but quite simply shot the lights out, knocking down 48 of them. I certainly don't expect the Bulls to overlook the mighty Bucks here. Note that Chicago is 14-6 ATS when seeking revenge for a double-digit loss against an opponent this season, as is the case here, outscoring the opposition by an impressive average margin of 7.0 points in that situation. Meanwhile, the Bucks are a long-term 103-144 ATS when playing at home after winning three of their last four games, which is the situation here, and 113-147 ATS when returning home following a road victory. Note that while the Bucks are coming off consecutive wins, they've only won three games in a row once going back to March 11th. Chicago has lost consecutive contests only once since March 8th. Take Chicago (10*).

Atlantic Division Game of the Year. My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over Boston at 8 pm et on Tuesday.

The 76ers predictably had their two-game winning streak snapped in Milwaukee on Sunday as the Bucks were in line for a big bounce-back performance after an embarrassing blowout loss at home against the Celtics three nights earlier. Here, I look for Philadelphia to get back on track as it hosts Boston, which comes off consecutive wins of its own and plays the front half of a back-to-back set culminating with a home game against Toronto on Wednesday. The 76ers continue to clamp down defensively, having held four straight opponents to 85 or fewer field goal attempts. It's a much different story for the Celtics, who have allowed 96 or more field goal attempts in each of their last four contests. While Boston has admittedly been red hot offensively it has been idle since Friday and isn't likely to afford itself nearly as many scoring opportunities as it has seen recently (91 or more FG attempts in six straight games). Note that while the Celtics are a perfect 3-0 in this series this season, they've gotten off just 82, 76 and 86 FG attempts in those three games. All three contests could have gone either way given they were all decided by single-digit margins, including a narrow three-point C's win here in Philadelphia back on February 25th. Note that the 76ers are 19-8 ATS when playing with double-revenge over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 7.4 points. Take Philadelphia (10*).

Game of the Year. My selection is on San Diego State plus the points over Connecticut at 9:20 pm et on Monday.

My handicap of this matchup is fairly straight-forward. When we last saw these two teams in the Final Four on Saturday, San Diego was fortunate to escape with a one-point win on a buzzer-beater against Florida Atlantic while Connecticut was never really challenged in a dominant double-digit victory over Miami. I can't help but feel that leaves the Aztecs a little undervalued here as I like the way they match up against the Huskies. San Diego State is capable of defending the perimeter and making UConn work for every basket, effectively able to shorten proceedings thanks to its methodical nature, not to mention its fundamentally-sound defense. Note that the Aztecs rank fourth in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency this season, having faced the 16th toughest slate of offensive opponents (both according to KenPom). While UConn has run the table against non-conference opponents, it also faced just the 210th most difficult non-conference schedule. In stark contrast, San Diego State went up against the 17th toughest non-conference slate. Lines are obviously going to be extremely tight at this stage of the tournament. I've become a fan of San Diego State head coach Brian Dutcher over the course of this tournament and like the fact that the Aztecs have gone 44-31 ATS when coming off an ATS loss under his guidance, as is the case here. UConn enters this game on the heels of five straight ATS wins and the last time it accomplished that feat it lost its next game outright as a four-point favorite in the Big East Tournament against Marquette. Take San Diego State (10*).

Western Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Houston at 7:10 pm et on Sunday.

Both of these teams enter Sunday's contest riding three-game 'under' streaks but I look for a reversal of that trend here. Houston has had a tougher time just getting shots off, let alone knocking them down lately, hoisting up 87 or fewer field goal attempts in four of its last five games after eclipsing that mark five of its previous six contests. The outlier was a game in Brooklyn where the Rockets shot 46-of-98 from the field but still scored 'only' 114 points. Defensively, I like the fact that Houston has at least been able to limit its opponents scoring opportunities somewhat lately, allowing fewer than 90 field goal attempts in four straight and eight of its last nine games overall. Los Angeles has displayed a different offensive dynamic since Lebron James returned to the lineup. The Lakers have a lot of mouths to feed offensively but its been Lebron that has absorbed the majority of the opportunities. Note that Los Angeles has shot 50% or better from the field in three straight games, knocking down exactly 45 field goals in back-to-back contests heading into this one. It's not as if the Lakers have been playing at a break-neck pace - they've gotten off 90 or more FG attempts just three times in their last 11 games, topping out at 91 over that stretch (in a game where they scored 'only' 116 points leading to a total of 227 against Oklahoma City). Discipline has been key defensively as Los Angeles hasn't allowed more than 118 points in any of its last 11 games despite all 11 of those opponents knocking down 40 or more field goals. The Lakers allowed 114 points the last time they faced the Rockets on March 15th but that was on a blistering 47-of-89 shooting and that contest still stayed 'under' the total with only 224 points scored. Take the under (10*).

Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Miami and Connecticut at 8:45 pm et on Saturday.

Miami has now seen each of its last three games go 'over' the total, matching its longest such streak of the season. The last time it came off three consecutive 'over' results, its next contest totalled only 134 points in a narrow loss to Duke back on January 21st. Last time out, the Canes couldn't miss from the field (they ended up shooting 59%) in a come-from-behind win over Texas. The Longhorns inexplicably decided to run with the Canes and did find some success offensively, knocking down 30-of-60 field goal attempts themselves but it wasn't enough. I don't think we'll see Connecticut push the pace nearly as much here, noting it ranks outside the top-200 in the country in terms of adjusted tempo this season (according to KenPom). While the Huskies have been red hot offensively, I don't think their best chance at winning this game comes by getting involved in a back-and-forth track meet with Miami. The Canes are certainly in line for some regression offensively after scoring 85+ points and knocking down 34, 31 an 29 field goals over their last three games. Keep in mind, this is the same team that narrowly avoided the upset against Drake in the opening round, scoring only 63 points on 17-of-56 shooting in that contest. Lost in UConn's tremendous run offensively is the fact that it has been playing exceptional defense. You would have to go back nine games, all the way to February 25th against St. John's, to find the last time it allowed an opponent to make good on more than 24 field goals. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 10-1 with Miami playing away from home after allowing 80 points or more in its previous game over the last three seasons, as is the case here, leading to an average total of just 134.9 points in that situation. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 7-1 with UConn playing away from home after winning three or more games in a row ATS this season, which is also the situation here, resulting in an average total of 132.4 points in that spot. Take the under (10*).

Eastern Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Boston and Milwaukee at 7:30 pm et on Thursday.

The Bucks check in off consecutive high-scoring affairs in road wins over the Pistons and Pacers but should face a great deal more resistance in this back-to-back spot against a rested Celtics squad. Boston is coming off a high-scoring game of its own as it inexplicably allowed 130 points in a rout at the hands of the short-handed Wizards in Washington two nights ago. Perhaps that result was to be expected after the Celtics were lulled into a sense of complacency following three straight blowout wins. Here, I look for Boston to tighten things up, noting that it has still held five of its last seven opponents to fewer than 40 made field goals. While you wouldn't know it by their last few games, the Bucks can play some defense, especially here at home where they've limited the opposition to 42-of-93 shooting on average this season. In games that project as ultra-competitive (with the line between +3 and -3 as is the case here at the time of writing), the Bucks have posted a 17-29 o/u record over the last two seasons, resulting in an average total of 223.4 points. Take the under (10*).

Non-Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Chicago at 8:10 pm et on Wednesday.

It was a struggle for the Lakers to just get shots off, let alone knock them down in Lebron James' return to the lineup on Sunday against Chicago. Los Angeles hoisted up only 75 field goal attempts in that double-digit loss, yet the game still found its way 'over' the total. It's worth noting that the Lakers haven't seen consecutive games go 'over' the total since way back on February 4th and 7th. They've been held to fewer than 40 made field goals in four of their last six games, getting off 78 or fewer field goal attempts in four of their last five contests. The Bulls are coming off an uncharacteristically bad defensive effort against the Clippers in the back half of a back-to-back on Monday. Perhaps they were a little too 'fat and happy' after winning the first two games on their road trip in lopsided fashion. Here, I expect Chicago to lock back in defensively, noting that it has still held 16 of its last 22 opponents to fewer than 40 made field goals. On the flip side, it's not easy to speed up the Bulls offense, noting that even in a game where they trailed most of the way against the Clippers on Monday, they still hoisted up only 82 FG attempts. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is a long-term 16-4 with the Lakers playing on the road off a double-digit home loss as a favorite, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 24-14 with the Bulls coming off a loss this season and 15-6 when that defeat came on the road. Take the under (10*).

NIT Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Utah Valley and UAB at 9:30 pm et on Tuesday.

We missed with the 'over' in Utah Valley's 'upset' win over Cincinnati in the quarter-final round of the NIT last week as that contest stayed just 'under' the total thanks to a miserable shooting performance from the Bearcats (27-of-79 from the field). I think it's notable that the Wolverines allowed Cincinnati to hoist up just shy of 80 field goal attempts in that game. They figure to face a similar up-tempo approach from UAB here, noting that the Blazers have gotten off 63, 71, 66 and 64 FG attempts over their last four games yet somehow all four of those contests stayed 'under' the total, only serving to provide us with a reasonably-priced total here. In fact, UAB ranks 32nd in the nation in adjusted tempo this season according to KenPom, just 10 spots ahead of Utah Valley. The Blazers have allowed each of their last five opponents to get off at least 60 FG attempts and Utah Valley is well-positioned to take advantage. The Wolverines have knocked down 27, 28, 40, 26, 31, 34, 33 and 25 field goals over their last eight contests with the two outliers coming in games where they still scored 72 and 74 points. Utah Valley comes off that 'under' result against Cincinnati but hasn't posted consecutive 'unders' over its last six contests. Take the over (10*).

Eastern Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Atlanta plus the points over Cleveland at 7:40 pm et on Tuesday.

The Cavaliers are riding a four-game winning streak, having gone 3-1 ATS over that stretch. I think that streak comes to an end on Tuesday, however, as they face a tougher challenge in the Hawks after going against the Wizards, Nets (twice) and Rockets over their last four games. Atlanta enters this game on a tear offensively. It has knocked down at least 44 field goals in an incredible eight straight and 10 of its last 11 games overall. Of course, the Hawks defense is far from elite and they've also given up 45, 52 and 48 made field goals over their last three contests. I think they catch a bit of a break here, however, as they go up against a slow-paced Cavs squad that has topped out at 42 made field goals over their last three games and hasn't hoisted up 90 or more field goal attempts since March 6th. While Atlanta is just 3-3 over its last six games, it hasn't lost consecutive contests since March 11th and 13th (it comes off a loss against Memphis here). Also note that the Hawks have dropped the cash in consecutive games only once this entire month (7-6 ATS in March). Take Atlanta (10*).

Elite Eight Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Miami and Texas at 5:05 pm et on Sunday.

While I can understand the logic behind this total sitting in the high-140's on Sunday, I believe it will prove too high. Miami comes off consecutive 'over' results. It hasn't seen three straight games go 'over' the total since January 11th to 16th - the only previous time this season it produced such a streak. Texas had its seven-game 'under' streak snapped in its win over Xavier on Friday. The Longhorns haven't posted consecutive 'over' results since February 6th and 11th. Texas has been on fire offensive, knocking down 31 or more field goals in each of its last four contests. It figures to be tested here, however, noting that while Miami's offense has impressed, it's defensive play has perhaps been even better, holding all three opponents in this tournament to 26 or fewer made field goals. Despite allowing Alabama to get off 64 field goal attempts on Friday, it still allowed just 24 made field goals. The Hurricanes have made good on 29 or more field goals in four of their last five games overall. Keep in mind, Texas hasn't allowed an opponent to reach that number since way back on February 18th against Oklahoma. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 9-2 with the Canes playing away from home after scoring 75 points or more in consecutive games over the last two seasons, resulting in an average total of 140 points in that spot. Take the under (10*).

Non-Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Milwaukee minus the points over Utah at 9:10 pm et on Friday.

The Jazz are in tough right now with both Jordan Clarkson and Lauri Markkanen sidelined. They did manage to win without that duo on Monday against the Kings but followed it up with a double-digit loss to the Blazers on Wednesday (with Markkanen in the lineup). Utah is now in uncharted territory offensively as it has scored 115 points or more in eight straight games - its longest such streak of the season. Here, it will be tested, however, as the Bucks have held three of their last four opponents under that number. Milwaukee has limited only three of its last seven opponents to 41 or fewer made field goals but that's not all bad when you consider the shot volume it has been yielding. The Bucks have allowed at least 93 field goal attempts in each of their last nine games. Only one of Milwaukee's last six opponents has managed to shoot better than 44.4% from the field. The Jazz check in having allowed 40 or more made field goals in eight of their last nine contests. The only occasion where they didn't over that stretch came in a game where they held Miami to just 79 FG attempts but still gave up 119 points in a losing effort. The Bucks, even without Khris Middleton, should be able to get loose given Utah has yielded 93 or more FG attempts in four of its last six contests. One thing Milwaukee doesn't lack in is scoring depth so the absence of Middleton can certainly be managed. Here, we'll note that the Bucks are a long-term 53-32 ATS when playing on the road as a favorite of between 6.5 and 12.5 points, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 10.4 points in that situation. Meanwhile, the Jazz are a miserable 1-9 ATS when coming off six or seven ATS wins in their last eight games over the last two seasons, as is the case here, allowing a whopping 121.4 points per game in that spot. Take Milwaukee (10*).

Sweet 16 Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Miami and Houston at 7:15 pm et on Friday.

We won with the 'over' in Houston's second round rout of Auburn and also cashed the same play in Miami's stunning lopsided win over Indiana. I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the 'under' in as the Hurricanes and Cougars meet in Sweet 16 action on Friday, however. As a considerable underdog, I think Miami will have a keen interest in limiting the number of possessions in this one. Keep in mind, the Canes check in sporting a defense that ranks outside of the top-100 in the country in terms of adjusted defensive efficiency (according to KenPom) not to mention the fact they're up against a Houston squad that sits an impressive eighth in the nation in adjusted offensive efficiency. Of course, the Cougars should be easily convinced to keep this one at a methodical pace, noting that they rank 342nd (out of 364 Division I teams) in adjusted tempo (also according to KenPom). Only one team remaining in this tournament ranks higher than Houston in terms of adjusted defensive efficiency and that's Alabama. Note that while the Cougars did hang 81 points on Auburn last time out, they needed 60 field goal attempts to get there. Houston has still gotten off 57 or fewer field goal attempts in five of its last seven games. Meanwhile, Miami is almost certainly in for a letdown here after connecting on 34-of-70 field goal attempts in its rout of Indiana. The Canes jumped ahead by a considerable margin early and were able to dictate the pace from there. I don't anticipate them being nearly as successful in doing so against Kelvin Sampson's Cougars. Note that only one of Houston's last six opponents and two of its last nine have managed to knock down more than 20 field goals. While Miami's defense isn't on nearly the same level, it has proven capable of stepping up. A dominant defensive effort against Duke back in February comes to mind. Also note that the Canes have at least limited four of their last five foes to 27 or fewer made field goals. Finally, I'll point out that Miami hasn't seen consecutive games go 'over' the total since late January-early February. The same goes for Houston. Take the under (10*).

NIT Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Cincinnati and Utah Valley State at 9 pm et on Wednesday.

We saw a couple of predictably low-scoring affairs in NIT quarter-final action last night but I expect a much different story to unfold as Cincinnati and Utah Valley State do battle in the second half of Wednesday's double-header. Utah Valley State succeeded in speeding up a favored Colorado team that probably would have preferred a slower tempo (with its 30th-ranked defense) on Sunday, pulling away for a convincing 81-69 victory in Boulder. I don't think the Wolverines will have any difficult coaxing red hot Cincinnati into an up-tempo affair here, noting that the Bearcats rank 114th (out of 364 Division I teams) in the country in adjusted tempo this season according to KenPom. The difference is, Cincinnati can take advantage of that fast pace, noting that it ranks an impressive 46th in the nation in adjusted offensive efficiency (also according to KenPom). The Bearcats have incredibly knocked down at least 29 field goals in five of their last six games with the lone outlier coming in their conference championship game against Houston - one of, if not the best defensive team in the country. For their part, the Wolverines enter red hot offensively as well having made good on 27, 28, 40, 26, 31, 34 and 33 field goals over their last seven contests. Cincinnati has actually seen each of its last four games stay 'under' the total which means it is approaching uncharted territory, noting its longest previous 'under' streak this season lasted five games, that coming back in January. We're starting to see the totals creep downward as a result of the Bearcats 'under' streak, noting that their last two games saw closing numbers of 155 and 150. I believe tonight's total will prove too low. Take the over (10*).

Non-Division Game of the Year. My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over Chicago at 8:10 pm et on Wednesday.

These two teams were involved in a double-overtime game two nights ago in Philadelphia with the Bulls pulling out a 109-105 victory. The 76ers haven't shot remotely close to as poorly as they did in that contest since back on February 27th in a 101-99 home loss to the Heat. Note that they followed up that dismal performance with a 119-96 victory in Miami two nights later. I expect the Sixers to bounce back nicely here as well, noting that they're 22-12 on the road this season, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 4.4 points per game. The Bulls are coming off three straight wins, both SU and ATS, which means they're approaching uncharted territory as they've put together a streak longer than that only once previously, and that lasted just four games back in early January. While Chicago has been winning it has been increasingly reliant on the do of Zach LaVine and Demar Derozan to shoulder the offensive load. I'm confident we'll see the Sixers - an elite defensive team - make the necessary adjustments against that duo here. Even in Monday's overtime loss, the Sixers still held Chicago to fewer than 40 made field goals (39). That marked the fourth time in their last five games they limited the opposition to 40 or fewer made field goals. On the flip side, Philadelphia has knocked down at least 40 field goals in nine of its last 11 contests. James Harden is questionable to play on Wednesday but even if he can't go, I'm confident others can pick up the slack, most notably De'Anthony Melton who has scored in double-figures in five of the last seven games. Here, we'll note that Philadelphia is 18-8 ATS when playing with double-revenge over the last two seasons, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 6.8 points in that situation. Meanwhile, the Bulls are a long-term 113-155 ATS when playing at home off consecutive ATS victories. Take Philadelphia (10*).

NIT Game of the Year. My selection is on Wisconsin plus the points over Oregon at 9 pm et on Tuesday.

As high as I've been on Oregon at times this season, I think the time has come to fade the Ducks on Tuesday as they check in as considerable favorites against Wisconsin in NIT quarter-final action. First, it's certainly worth noting that Oregon is dealing with a cluster of injuries at the moment with no fewer than three key contributors questionable to return to the court for Tuesday's game. That's notable especially at this time of year when energy and depth tends to be depleted. The Ducks absences didn't cost them against the likes of Cal-Irvine and UCF but likely will here. Note that Oregon was fortunate that UCF had an off shooting night on Sunday as it made good on just 19-of-62 field goal attempts. The Ducks are playing with fire right now at the defensive end of the floor, having yielded 60, 80 and 62 FG attempts over their last three contests. Wisconsin figures to take advantage, noting that it is playing some of its best offensive basketball of the season now that it's out of the Big Ten. In fact, going back to February 22nd, the Badgers have made good on 25, 30, 23, 27, 21, 25 and 27 field goals and that's despite getting off 58 or fewer FG attempts in five of those seven contests. Defensively, it's been a bit more challenging but the good news is, the Badgers have limited their opponents' scoring opportunities for the most part, allowing 55 or fewer FG attempts in four of their last five games. I do think they can effectively shorten this game with their methodical tempo, which is what you generally want to see from an underdog in this pointspread range. Only 15 teams have faced a tougher schedule than Wisconsin this season (according to KenPom), noting that the Badgers faced the likes of Dayton, Kansas, USC and Marquette in non-conference action this season, going 3-1 in those four games in particular with the lone loss coming by a single point against Kansas. Oregon, on the other hand, stepped up in class and lost by 10 points against Houston, 24 at the hands of Connecticut and four against Michigan State. Take Wisconsin (10*).

Eastern Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Cleveland and Brooklyn at 7:40 pm et on Tuesday.

This is the lowest total on Tuesday's NBA board and I believe it will prove too low. The Nets have seen each of their last three contests stay 'under' the total, thanks in large part to their own putrid offensive production. I think they're a far better offensive team than they've shown lately, however. They curiously waved the white flag late in Sunday's game against the Nuggets but I look for them to respond favorably here, noting that they're perhaps catching the Cavs at the right time with Cleveland having allowed five of its last six opponents to shoot 50% or better from the field. The absence of Jarrett Allen has contributed to that and he is expected to return here, but I still think the Nets offense can do some damage, noting that they're more of an outside shooting team, not likely to force much into the teeth of the Cavs defense inside. Cleveland's offense is likely to go off in this spot. The Cavs have made good on 40 or more field goals in five straight and 13 of their last 14 games overall. Meanwhile, the Nets defense has proven vulnerable, allowing 44, 48, 45, 45, 32 and 42 field goals over their last six contests. The outlier over that stretch came last week against Sacramento with the Kings struggling to find their shooting legs in the second of back-to-backs off a last-second win in Chicago the night previous. The Nets are approaching uncharted territory off three straight 'under' results here, noting that their longest 'under' streak since their pre-trade deadline dealings lasted four games but two of those four contests surpassed the total we're working with tonight. You would have to go back six matchups in this series to find the last time the two teams didn't at least get into the 220's. Take the over (10*).

Non-Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and New York at 7:40 pm et on Monday.

We got the result we wanted from the T'Wolves on Saturday as they scored only 107 points in a lopsided loss in Toronto, clearly reeling after Anthony Edwards suffered a scary injury the night previous in Chicago. Shockingly, Edwards was out of the walking boot on Sunday and is listed a day-to-day. He's unlikely to play on Monday but I do expect the T'Wolves offense to bounce back just the same. Minnesota has averaged an impressive 121.4 points per game when playing on the road in the second half of the season over the last two seasons and the 'over' is an incredible 14-1 when it plays on the road in a three-in-four situation over the last two seasons, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of 247.0 points in that spot. The Knicks are red hot off three straight wins, knocking down a consistent 42, 42 and 41 field goals over that stretch. They only figure to get stronger in Jalen Brunson's second game back from injury on Monday. Note that the Knicks have averaged an impressive 122.6 points per game with the 'over' going 14-6 when listed as a favorite of between 3.5 and 9.5 points this season. New York is a good defensive team but I'm not convinced it is elite in that department, having allowed at least 42 made field goals in six of its last seven games. The Knicks haven't been stronger defensively at home compared to on the road by any considerable margin this season, allowing 112.1 points per contest at MSG compared to their season scoring average allowed of 112.2 points per game. Take the over (10*).

Non-Division Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Toronto and Milwaukee at 8:10 pm et on Sunday.

While the Bucks always garner plenty of attention, I'm not sure many are paying close attention to the style they're employing right now. It's quite fascinating actually. Milwaukee has allowed seven straight opponents to get off at least 95 field goal attempts with five of those foes hoisting up 100+. The Raptors aren't likely to shy away from an up-tempo affair here as they're feeling it, winners of three games in a row having gotten off 90 or more field goal attempts in five straight contests. While Toronto has posted terrific defensive numbers during its current three-game winning streak, it's worth noting that those victories came against a reeling Nuggets squad, the Thunder who were in a difficult back-to-back spot and the T'Wolves without Anthony Edwards and also in a back-to-back situation. Also note that all three of those games came at home. There's no denying the Raps are red hot offensively. They've made good on 46, 49, 47 and 48 field goals over their last four games. The last time these two teams matched up on this same floor in January we saw 141 first half points in a game that finished north of 250. Take the over (10*).

Second Round Game of the Year. My selection is on Florida Atlantic minus the points over Fairleigh Dickinson at 7:45 pm et on Sunday.

I have no problem with laying the lofty number of points with Florida Atlantic here, even after Fairleigh Dickinson shocked number-one seed Purdue in its tournament opener on Friday. FDU still checks in ranked 274th in the country according to KenPom - most glaring is the fact that the Knights are 353rd (out of 364 teams) in adjusted offensive efficiency, despite having faced the 362 most difficult schedule in terms of opponents' offensive efficiency. It's obviously extremely rare for a 16-seed to prevail over a one-seed, even moreso when it shoots worse than 39% from the field as FDU did against Purdue. That upset had everything to do with the Big Ten champs looking right past the Knights, and paying the price for it. I don't expect Florida Atlantic to take anything for granted here - after all, it is coming off an 'upset' win of its own over highly-touted Memphis in the opening round. While the Owls didn't necessarily have their shooting legs under them, they still afforded themselves plenty of scoring opportunities - 65 field goal attempts to be exact. They've knocked down at least 25 field goals in an incredible 12 of their last 13 games overall. The Owls are certainly no strangers to blowout victories, with five wins by 20+ points to their credit over their last eight games alone. Take Florida Atlantic (10*).

Second Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Auburn and Houston at 7:10 pm et on Saturday.

While they'll have to work to do so, I think Bruce Pearl's Auburn Tigers can speed the snail's paced Houston Cougars up in Saturday's second round matchup. Since the Tigers ugly 46-43 loss at Tennessee back in early February we've seen the 'over' go 6-4 in their last 10 games. They've hoisted up at least 62 field goal attempts in six of those 10 contests as well and the four games where they didn't still totalled 152, 140, 149 and 149 points. Auburn enters this game on a tear offensively having knocked down 29, 28, 25 and 29 field goals over its last four contests but it's a much different story at the defensive end of the floor as it has yielded 32, 29, 25, 28 and 28 made field goals over its last five games. Houston was involved in an incredibly low-scoring affair against Northern Kentucky to open this tournament. Star guard Marcus Sasser appeared to re-aggravate his groin injury and was only able to play 14 minutes. His absence (he's likely to play but it remains to be seen for how long or how effective he can be) hurts the Cougars just as much defensively as it does offensively, noting that Northern Kentucky was able to get off a whopping 69 field goal attempts in Thursday's loss. Keep in mind, Sasser is one of the best defenders in the nation. While the Houston offense has sputtered recently, I'm not overly concerned as it ranks 11th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency and has enough scoring depth to pick up the slack should Sasser not be able to handle his usual workload. I'm quite simply willing to bet against an Auburn defense that has looked out of sorts for the last month stepping up against the one-seed here. Take the over (10*).

First Round Game of the Year. My selection is on St. Mary's minus the points over VCU at 2 pm et on Friday.

I think VCU carries a certain reputation when it comes to postseason basketball, due in large part to past success. I don't think this is a good matchup at all for the Rams as they take on a St. Mary's Gaels squad that many consider an afterthought after getting brushed aside by Gonzaga twice in its last three games. Entering the tournament, the Gaels rank 12th overall according to KenPom, displaying tremendous efficiency at both ends of the floor. It's a case of 'anything you can do, I can do better' by my estimation. While VCU ranks an impressive 16th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency, St. Mary's checks in ninth. The Rams sit just 138th in terms of adjusted offensive efficiency - a far cry from the Gaels 39th ranking. Did St. Mary's do it against a weaker schedule? Not even close as the Gaels have faced the 74th toughest slate of opponents this season (also according to KenPom) and the 56th most difficult non-conference schedule. VCU checks in 134th and 215th in those two categories, respectively. Note that St. Mary's has reeled off six consecutive ATS wins when coming off an in-conference loss over the last two seasons, as is the case here. In fact, the Gaels are 12-1 ATS in their last 13 contests following a straight-up loss. While St. Mary's has gone a profitable 18-13 ATS in lined contests this season, you have to wonder if that record might be a shade better were it not for its opponents shooting an above-average 75.2% from the free throw line. Note that VCU has knocked down just 69.7% of its attempts from the charity stripe this season. Take St. Mary's (10*).

First Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Penn State and Texas A&M at 9:55 pm et on Thursday.

Both of these teams posted 'under' results in their respective conference tournament championship games but I look for a different story to unfold as they match up in the opening round of the NCAA Tournament on Thursday. I think the potential is there for Texas A&M to go off offensively after being held down by an elite, under-appreciated Alabama defense in the SEC title game. Penn State ranks 99th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency this season (according to KenPom) and has shown no ability to limit its opponents' scoring opportunities over the last month or so, allowing more than 60 field goal attempts in seven of its last eight games overall. The Nittany Lions have yielded 24 or more made field goals in 12 of their last 15 contests overall and haven't limited an opponent to 20 or fewer made field goals since way back on December 29th (I realize that streak was kept intact thanks to overtime against Northwestern last week). Texas A&M can certainly play some defense but it's worth noting that it hasn't held an opponent to fewer than 20 made field goals since February 4th against Georgia. It's worth noting that the Aggies have been a much different team away from their home floor as well, yielding an average of two more made field goals on two fewer attempts per game compared to their overall season average. Despite playing at a slow pace, the Nittany Lions have managed to knock down 22 or more field goals in five of their last six games and have only been held to fewer than 20 made field goals twice all season - an impressive feat considering they play in the Big Ten, which can be a slog of a conference at times. Penn State averages 10 made three-pointers per contest and travels well in that regard, averaging the same 10 made threes per game away from home, on one attempt fewer compared to its season average. Take the over (10*).

Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over Golden State at 10:10 pm et on Wednesday.

For a team that manages its schedule ultra-conservatively from a personnel standpoint, the situation doesn't get much better for the Clippers. They've been off for the last three days and after tonight's contest will get two more days off before playing at home again on Friday against Orlando. And the good news is, the Clips enter this contest playing some of their best basketball of the season. They've won three straight games to pull even with the Warriors in the Western Conference standings. Their offense is rolling, having knocked down 47, 45, 39 and 42 field goals over their last four games with the lone outlier coming in a 108-100 victory over Toronto in which they hoisted up only 71 field goal attempts. Defensively, Los Angeles is locked-in, most recently holding the Raptors and Knicks to just 37 and 32 made field goals, respectively. It's a different story at that end of the floor for the Warriors as they've employed a 'swinging-gate' style of defense, allowing 42, 50, 50, 43 and 46 made field goals over their last five contests, albeit aided by overtime in one of those games (against the Bucks). Offensively, they've been fine, as expected, but most of their damage has been done at home. The Warriors remain a woeful 7-26 on the road, where they've been outscored by an average margin of 7.2 points. Interestingly, you would have to go back to 2019 to find the last time the Warriors covered the spread in consecutive meetings with the Clippers when one of those matchups took place in Los Angeles, as is the case here. Take Los Angeles (10*).

First Four Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Arizona State and Nevada at 9:10 pm et on Wednesday.

We won with the 'under' in Arizona State's most recent game as it bowed out of the Pac-12 Tournament at the hands of eventual champion Arizona last Friday. Keep in mind, we were working with a total set well into the 150's in that game. It still went 'over' the number we're dealing with in this 'First Four' matchup on Wednesday. The Sun Devils quietly started pushing the pace more in early February and never relented the rest of the way. They check in having hoisted up more than 60 field goal attempts in eight of their last 11 games. The only three times they didn't we still saw the 'over' cash at a 2-1 clip. While I've sung the praises of the Sun Devils defense at times this season, the opposition has displayed a fairly solid 'floor' noting that Arizona State has yielded more than 20 made field goals in 18 of its last 20 games. The only team that failed to eclipse that number over that stretch was Oregon State - one of the weakest offensive teams in the country (278th in adjusted offensive efficiency according to KenPom). Nevada hasn't really shown the ability to dictate its oppnents' pace, as evidenced by its last two games in which it allowed UNLV and San Jose State to get off 72 and 65 field goal attempts, respectively. The Wolfpack have certainly faced their share of tough defenses this season - the 66th toughest slate of opponents in terms of adjusted defensive efficiency in fact (again according to KenPom) - but made out just fine, ranking 61st in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency. There have been plenty of impressive performances along the way, including scoring 87 points against Kansas State, 75 points against San Diego State and 85 points against Utah State. Speaking of 'floors', you would have to go back 25 games to find the last time Nevada was held to fewer than 60 points (I do realize they'll likely need to get well past that number to help this total along). Take the over (10*).

Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Brooklyn and Oklahoma City at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday.

When these two teams last met the Thunder secured a 112-102 road win back on January 15th. Keep in mind, the Nets were a much different team then with Kyrie Irving in the lineup and Kevin Durant still on the shelf pre-trade. Brooklyn has certainly been re-energized since dealing away Kyrie and K.D. The Nets check into this contest on the heels of five straight ATS victories including consecutive 'over' results. While they got off only 84 field goal attempts against a good Nuggets defense on Sunday, they still managed to knock down 40+ field goals for the fourth straight game. It's worth noting that they haven't been held to fewer than 90 field goal attempts in consecutive games since late February. As much as head coach Jacque Vaughn would like his team to play tougher defense, I'm not sure they have the personnel in place to do so. Note that Brooklyn has allowed 44, 48 and 45 made field goals over its last three games (one of those games was aided by overtime) with all three of those opponents hoisting up 90+ FG attempts. The Thunder didn't have their best shooting performance on Sunday in San Antonio but still had enough to get by the lowly Spurs. The good news for our purposes was that the Thunder did continue to push the pace, getting off 95 FG attempts in the victory. They've hoisted up at least 87 FG attempts in seven of their last eight and 11 of their last 13 contests. While we did see Oklahoma City hold its last two opponents to 34 and 33 made field goals, that was against the Pelicans and Spurs, respectively. It will be taking a step up in class against the fifth-in-the-East Nets on Tuesday. While the scoring wasn't necessarily there in that most recent matchup between these two teams, we did see each side get off 90 or more FG attempts. I think the pace will be there again on Tuesday and with both teams coming off an off day, their shooting legs should be firmly beneath them as well. Take the over (10*).

Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Phoenix and Golden State at 10:10 pm et on Monday.

The Suns dropped a high-scoring 128-119 decision at home against the Kings on Saturday but still check in having held an incredible 10 straight opponents to 41 or fewer made field goals. They've been red hot (no pun intended) shooting the ball themselves but will be in tough with Kevin Durant sidelined (given all the key pieces they dealt away to acquire him). The Warriors continue to scuff their heels offensively, shooting worse than 44% as a team in three of their last four games. Their most recent contest did end up touching the total, but only thanks to overtime against Milwaukee on Saturday. Here, we'll go the other way and call for a lower-scoring contest than most are expecting, noting that the 'over' has cashed in all three meetings in this series this season but we haven't seen four straight matchups go 'over' the total since way back in 2008-09. The 'under' checks in 34-18 with Phoenix coming off a loss over the last two seasons, resulting in an average total of only 218.2 points. Take the under (10*).

Eastern Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Washington and Philadelphia at 6:10 pm et on Sunday.

The 76ers have gotten back to a slower pace yet do check in having seen the 'over' cash in four of their last five games. Last time out, that had everything to do with the visiting Blazers quite simply shooting the lights out (they actually got off only 80 field goal attempts). Philadelphia has hoisted up 84 or fewer field goal attempts in an incredible 12 straight games. The Sixers have also limited the opposition to 86 or fewer FG attempts in seven of their last eight contests. The Wizards have gotten off 88 or fewer FG attempts in five of their last six games. The only time they surpassed that number they lost 117-111 to the Bucks - with that game still failing to surpass the total we're working with tonight. Off consecutive losses, I do think we see the Wiz play some defense here, noting that they've allowed more than 117 points just once in their last 11 contests. Take the under (10*).

WAC Game of the Year. My selection is on Southern Utah over Grand Canyon at 11:30 pm et on Saturday.

Both of these teams pulled off minor upsets in the semi-final round of the WAC Tournament yesterday. I'll back the revenge-minded Thunderbirds of Southern Utah on Saturday as they look to get back at the Antelopes after dropping an 83-78 decision in the two teams' last matchup just over a week ago. This game features a true contrast in styles as Southern Utah looks to push the pace at every opportunity, ranked 16th in the nation in adjusted tempo this season according to KenPom. By the same metric, Grand Canyon sits 291st. While that's not necessarily a bad thing for the Antelopes, they haven't really been able to impose their will on any of their opponents this month, save for perhaps lowly Utah Tech in a double-digit win on March 3rd. Since that defeat at the hands of Grand Canyon, we've seen Southern Utah knock down 29, 27 and 30 field goals in notching three straight victories. Interestingly, it's not the Thunderbirds that have been more vulnerable defensively, despite playing at such a fast pace. The Antelopes actually rank a disappointing 210th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency this season. Southern Utah checks in 149th despite facing a marginally tougher schedule. I simply feel that last week's result between these two teams is weighing far too heavily given how little most have paid attention to the WAC in general this season. Take Southern Utah (10*).

Ivy League Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Cornell and Yale at 11 am et on Saturday.

These two teams just met on February 25th as Yale rolled to a 76-58 victory with that contest easily cruising 'under' the total, which closed in the low-150's. We're working with a lower posted total this time around but I'm not convinced the shift is warranted. Note that we haven't seen consecutive matchups in this series stay 'under' the total since all the way back in 2015-16. Cornell has been reeling to be sure but its slate is clean now as it needs two victories to book a spot in the NCAA Tournament. I certainly don't expect the Big Red, who rank 48th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency this season according to KenPom, to go down without a fight. While Yale does rank an impressive 62nd in the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency, it has also only faced the 236th toughest slate of offensive opponents (based on average adjusted offensive efficiency). While we can sometimes project a sleepy start in these morning tipoff games, I don't think that will be the case here with both squads raring to go following a full week off. Take the over (10*).

Non-Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on Toronto plus the points over Los Angeles at 10:40 pm et on Friday.

This is a big spot for the Raptors who were fuming (feeling wronged by the officials) following Wednesday's loss on this same court against the Clippers. Toronto hasn't played all that poorly but is just 1-3 on its current road trip. We were actually on the Raptors in their lone victory - an overtime win in Washington last Saturday. I like the fact that Toronto has gotten back to its preferred style of basketball at the very least, holding six straight and nine of its last 10 opponents to 86 or fewer field goal attempts. The Raptors last contest marked the first time in four games that they didn't make good on at least 41 field goals. The Lakers are undoubtedly playing well but have also caught some favorable matchups lately, facing the Thunder without Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, a reeling Warriors squad and a Grizzlies team missing Ja Morant among others. Here, they get the Raps at virtually full strength. Note that Los Angeles is just 13-26 ATS when coming off two or more consecutive ATS wins over the last three seasons, as is the case here, outscored by 0.8 points on average in that spot. Meanwhile, the Raptors are a long-term 163-126 ATS when playing on the road off two or more losses in a row. Take Toronto (10*).

Big West Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Cal State-Fullerton and Cal-Irvine at 9 pm et on Friday.

Both of these teams are coming off low-scoring affairs on Thursday and I expect more of the same as they match up for the third time this season on Friday. The two regular season matchups were a bit of a mixed bag with the first totalling 135 points and the second reaching only 123 points. Fullerton has been an upstart this season, going an incredible 19-8 ATS in lined contests on the strength of a defense that ranks 81st in the country in adjusted efficiency (according to KenPom). The Titans are certainly capable of 'grinding it out', checking in 317th out of 363 Division-I teams in terms of adjusted tempo (also according to KenPom). Cal-Irvine is right there defensively as well, ranking 75th in the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency, albeit playing at a considerably faster pace. The Anteaters have been particularly locked-in on defense lately, allowing 24 or fewer made field goals in nine of their last 10 games overall. On the flip side, Fullerton has impressively limited five of its last seven foes to 21 or fewer made field goals. You would have to go back four meetings in this series to find the last time a team got off more than 56 field goal attempts and that contest still totalled 'only' 128 points back in January of last year. Take the under (10*).

SEC Tournament Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Arkansas and Texas A&M at 7 pm et on Friday.

These two teams were involved in an anomaly of a high-scoring affair in their first meeting this season as that contest totalled 151 points with Texas A&M getting off an otherworldly (by the Aggies own standards) 76 field goal attempts in a double-digit loss. The rematch proved far more 'normal', reaching only 118 points in a tightly-contested A&M home victory. I'm anticipating something in between here but do feel the total will prove too high. Arkansas has seen the 'over' cash in five of its last six games as a number of its recent opponents have quite simply shot the lights out. The pace hasn't necessarily been there for such high-scoring affairs, noting yesterday's game in particular where the Razorbacks and Auburn Tigers combined to hoist up only 101 field goal attempts yet we saw 149 total points scored. All told, the Hogs have limited seven of their last eight opponents to fewer than 60 FG attempts and I'm confident they'll do the same here, noting that Texas A&M ranks 244th in the country in adjusted tempo this season (according to KenPom) and has gotten off 54 or fewer FG attempts in seven of its last eight contests. In fact, the Aggies have been held to fewer than 20 made field goals in four of their last six games yet here we find them in a pk'em price range against Arkansas. That lends itself to a relatively low-scoring affair in my opinion, noting that the Aggies have been nothing but consistent defensively, holding an incredible seven straight opponents to 23 or fewer made field goals, including the Razorbacks (to 22) on February 15th. Take the under (10*).

AAC Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Tulsa and Wichita State at 7 pm et on Thursday.

Both regular season meetings between these two teams surpassed the total we're dealing with on Thursday and I believe the number will prove too low once again. Tulsa enters this game on an 11-game losing streak, not to mention a four-game 'under' streak. The Golden Hurricane offense went in the tank down the stretch but I do think this is a favorable matchup, noting that Tulsa has hung relatively tough with Wichita State in all five meetings going back to the start of 2022, with the largest margin of defeat over that stretch being 11 points. The Golden Hurricane knocked down 27 and 25 field goals in this year's two matchups, scoring 69 and 75 points. The problem here is that Tulsa doesn't match up particularly well defensively. Wichita State has made good on 24 or more field goals in 10 of its last 11 games and faces a Tulsa defense that has yielded 25 or more made field goals in an incredible 19 of its last 21 games. I don't think the Golden Hurricane will shy away from an up-tempo affair here though, noting that they rank 146th in the country this season in adjusted tempo (according to KenPom) despite facing the 95th most difficult schedule. The Shockers stepped up with a dominant defensive effort against South Florida last time out but that might have just been an off shooting night for the Bulls as they still got off 58 field goal attempts. Prior to that, Wichita State had allowed at least 23 made field goals in 16 straight games, yielding 27 or more on eight occasions over that stretch. Take the over (10*).

Pac-12 Tournament Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Colorado and UCLA at 3 pm et on Thursday.

Colorado exploded in the second half against Washington yesterday, scoring 46 points on its way to a 74-68 win. Keep in mind, the Buffaloes M.O. this season has been their defense, ranking 19th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency despite facing the 43rd most difficult schedule (both according to KenPom). I certainly expect to see the pace slow down in today's matchup (Colorado got off 66 field goal attempts in yesterday's win), noting that favored UCLA ranks 223rd in the nation in adjusted tempo this season and should be able to control proceedings much like it did during the lone regular season matchup between these two teams (the Bruins won that game 60-56 on February 26th). For UCLA, it has its sights set on a tournament championship, but also on much loftier goals starting next week. I'm not expecting a peak performance from the Bruins offense here, noting that even in an anomaly of a game that saw them hoist up 67 field goal attempts against up-tempo Arizona last time out, they still knocked down 'only' 28 field goals. Colorado enters this contest having held three straight opponents to 24 or fewer made field goals, including that aforementioned matchup with UCLA in which it yielded 22. Take the under (10*).

Pac-12 Tournament Game of the Year. My selection is on Oregon State plus the points over Arizona State at 11:30 pm et on Wednesday.

We missed with Oregon State on Saturday as the Beavers won but failed to cover the spread against lowly California. While that was a rather uninspiring performance from OSU I do think it's well positioned to get back in the win column from an ATS perspective as it catches a generous helping of points against Arizona State in the first round Pac-12 Tournament action. Note that this will be the third matchup between these two teams this season. The Sun Devils took the first two but neither game was a blowout as they won by five and 11 points. Arizona State actually got off only 49 and 47 field goal attempts in those two contests, making good on a combined 46 of them. The difference was that ASU set up shop at the free throw line, getting there 27 and 26 times. I certainly don't expect a repeat of that here, noting that the Sun Devils average only 18 trips to the charity stripe per game this season. We know Oregon State is capable of slowing this game to a crawl, effectively shortening proceedings which is what we want to see from an underdog in this pointspread range. Note that the Beavers have held seven straight opponents to 58 or fewer FG attempts, allowing more than 25 made field goals just twice over that stretch. While Arizona State does rate well defensively, I do think Oregon State can find some success offensively, noting that the Sun Devils have allowed an incredible 21 straight opponents to knock down at least 20 field goals (that's not a lofty number by any means but can work as a reasonable floor for the Beavers here). In stark contrast, Oregon State has held three of its last 12 opponents to fewer than 20 made field goals. Take Oregon State (10*).

ACC Tournament Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Wake Forest and Syracuse at 12 noon et on Wednesday.

This will be the second meeting in less than a week between these two ACC schools after Saturday's contest went Syracuse's way by a score of 72-63. That relatively low-scoring result has afforded us a lower posted total this time around. I believe it will prove too low. The pace was certainly there for a higher-scoring contest on Saturday but neither team was able to make the most of their scoring opportunities. Still, Syracuse has now allowed four straight and seven of its last eight opponents to hoist up 60 or more field goal attempts while Wake Forest has yielded 27 or more made field goals in 10 of its last 11 games. The Demon Deacons have struggled to adjust to life without Damari Monsanto after he went down with an injury on February 22nd. I do think facing the same opponent in succession will help their cause here, however, noting that they're favored for a reason in this game. They'll certainly need to pick up the scoring pace here as they can't expect Syracuse to shoot a woeful 2-of-14 from three-point range the way it did on Saturday (the fact that it still scored 72 points was impressive). Note that Wake does check in 63rd in the country in adjusted tempo this season according to KenPom. Take the over (10*).

Western Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Utah and Dallas at 8:40 pm et on Tuesday.

Both of these teams are coming off 'over' results - in fact, the Jazz have seen their last two games go 'over' the total while the Mavericks have posted three consecutive 'overs'. I expect those streaks to end here. After another tough loss - this one coming at the hands of the Suns on Sunday - the Mavs know they can't keep playing the way they have been, and by that I mean getting involved in repeated track meets. It's not the pace they're comfortable playing at and it just doesn't give them the best chance to win on most nights, despite the wealth of offensive talent they possess. Here, I think Dallas catches a bit of a break as Utah hasn't been on point offensively, topping out at 43 made field goals in seven straight games (it reached that number three times over that stretch). You have to figure the Jazz will be looking to tighten things up defensively here as well after allowing 130 and 129 points in consecutive losses in Oklahoma City. While the most recent meeting between these two teams in early February did snap a five-game 'under' streak in this series, it only got there thanks to 50 made free throws (the two teams average a combined 39 made free throws per game this season). Only once in the last 11 meetings have we seen either team knock down more than 41 field goals and that came in a contest that totalled only 203 points. Take the under (10*).

Horizon League Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Cleveland State and Wisconsin-Milwaukee at 9:30 pm et on Monday.

I like the way this one sets up as a high-scoring affair after Wisconsin-Milwaukee posted a rare 'under' result in its quarter-final matchup with Wright State. Monday's opponent, Cleveland State, has been a completely different team over the last month, hoisting up 60 or more field goal attempts in seven of its last eight games overall. Keep in mind, this is a team that still checks in 271st in the country in adjusted tempo this season according to KenPom. The Panthers on the other hand rank 17th in the nation in that category. Note that Milwaukee checks in just 219th in adjusted defensive efficiency despite facing just the 289th most difficult schedule in the country. I think the Panthers were fortunate to allow 'only' 72 and 70 points in their last two games despite yielding 74 and 68 FG attempts. Cleveland State figures to take advantage of Milwaukee's defensive warts, noting that the Vikings have knocked down 26 or more field goals in six straight games and 28+ in five of those contests. Take the over (10*).

Big Ten Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Michigan and Indiana at 4:30 pm et on Sunday.

We'll fade the 'over' streaks for both of these teams on Sunday afternoon as Michigan enters on the heels of consecutive 'over' results while Indiana has seen each of its last three games go 'over' the total. I certainly don't think Michigan wants to get involved in another track meet here after allowing 70 field goal attempts in each of its last two contests. Prior to that, the Wolverines had held four of their last five opponents to fewer than 60 field goal attempts. Despite their recent run of 'over' results, the Hoosiers have still made good on 25 or fewer field goals in five of their last seven games overall. Indiana continues to do a good job of limiting its opponents' scoring opportunities, yielding 58 or fewer FG attempts in seven of its last nine contests. The first meeting between these two teams this season totalled only 123 points. We've seen a slight adjustment to the total for this rematch but I don't believe it will be enough. Take the under (10*).

Eastern Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Toronto minus the points over Washington at 5:10 pm et on Saturday.

The Raptors haven't lost consecutive games since January 30th and February 1st and I look for them to avoid that fate in the second half of this two-game set against the Wizards on Saturday. Note that Washington is just 11-22 ATS when coming off a home win over the last two seasons. The Wizards are also a long-term 183-233 ATS when coming off consecutive victories, which is also the situation here. The Raptors had their opportunities on Thursday night but simply couldn't take advantage, connecting on only 41-of-92 field goal attempts. They did hold Washington to just 84 field goal attempts - the third straight game in which they limited the opposition to that number or less. Take Toronto (10*).

Big 12 Game of the Month. My selection is on Texas minus the points over Kansas at 4 pm et on Saturday.

Kansas is red hot having won seven straight games. It hasn't looked particularly impressive in its last two victories, however, failing to cover the spread on both occasions. Here, I expect the Jayhawks to have their win streak stopped by a Texas team determined to end its two-game skid to close out the regular season at home. This is a revenge spot for the Longhorns as well after they dropped a spirited 88-80 affair in Lawrence back on February 6th. Note that Texas has lost just once at home this season, that coming in a wild 116-103 setback against Kansas State in January. The Longhorns current two-game slide is their longest such streak of the season. I don't like the fact that Kansas has given up more than 60 field goal attempts in three straight games entering this contest, opening the door for a Texas offense that has knocked down 25 or more field goals in four straight games and figures to bounce back after making good on only 25-of-64 FG attempts in a narrow two-point loss at TCU last time out. Take Texas (10*).

Pac-12 Game of the Month. My selection is on Oregon State plus the points over Stanford at 9 pm et on Thursday.

We won with Stanford in its double-digit victory over Washington last Sunday - a true 'get right' spot for the Cardinal after they had lost three games in a row. Now I feel the shoe is on the other foot as Stanford heads out on the road to face Oregon State on Thursday. The Beavers enter this contest having dropped three games in a row, including a tough two-point setback against rival Oregon last Saturday. I do think Oregon State can be a thorn in Stanford's side here, noting that the Beavers rank 109th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency this season and 338th in adjusted tempo (both according to KenPom), perhaps offering a bit of a 'shock to the system' to the Cardinal after they faced Washington (which ranks 78th in adjusted tempo) last time out. For Stanford, it might be easy to overlook to the Beavers with a tougher (on paper) road tilt against the Oregon Ducks on tap on Saturday. That wouldn't be wise, however, as Oregon State has staged recent home upsets against the likes of Colorado and USC (both since the start of February). Take Oregon State (10*).

Atlantic-10 Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between UMass and Duquesne at 7 pm et on Wednesday.

I'm not sure the oddsmakers can set this total high enough with UMass coming off three consecutive 'under' results and Duquesne checking off a low-scoring game of its own. The first meeting between these teams this season produced 166 total points. Neither team shot particularly well in that contest but the game was played at an exceptionally fast pace. I expect a similar up-tempo affair here. The Minutemen had been rolling along offensively, having knocked down 25 or more field goals in seven of their last nine games, before running into a tough Dayton defense last time out. Meanwhile, Duquesne has connected on 25 or more field goals in eight of its last nine contests, making good on 28 or more in six of its last eight games. Both teams have been solid on occasion defensively, but not with any consistency. I just don't see either side shying away from a track meet here. Take the over (10*).

Non-Division Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Portland and Golden State at 10:10 pm et on Tuesday.

We missed with the 'over' in the Warriors most recent game on Sunday as they defeated the T'Wolves by a 109-104 score. I won't hesitate to go back to the well here, however, noting that the pace was certainly there for a much higher-scoring affair in that Sunday contest, and I'm confident Portland will do its part to help this total along. The Warriors have run into a bit of a shooting funk over their last few games but figure to get on track here, noting that Portland has allowed 45 or more made field goals in seven of its last eight games with the opposition knocking down at least 40 field goals in an incredible 22 straight contests. Golden State has seen each of its last two foes - the T'Wolves and Rockets - get off 90 or more field goal attempts, but fail to take advantage of their wealth of scoring opportunities, making good on just 38 and 36, respectively. Portland doesn't figure to have such trouble, noting that the Blazers have knocked down 42 or more field goals in five of their last six games, despite getting off 86 or fewer FG attempts in four of those contests. In fact, Portland has connected on 40 or more field goals in 12 of its last 14 games overall. Largely due to the Warriors recent low-scoring results (along with the fact that the likes of Steph Curry and Andrew Wiggins remain sidelined) we're not seeing much of an adjustment to this total since the last time these two teams met on February 8th. That's notable when you consider that game reached a whopping 247 total points. Take the over (10*).

SEC Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Florida and Georgia at 7 pm et on Tuesday.

We've seen a considerable adjustment to the total since the first meeting between these two teams this season - an 82-75 Florida victory back on January 7th. That game saw a closing total of 136 points. I believe the shift is warranted. Since that time, the Gators have lost forward Colin Castleton for the season with a hand injury. Much was made about the lost offense with Castleton sidelined, but there's a defensive aspect as well. Since Castleton went down, Florida has played three games. In those three contests, the Gators were torched for 34, 33 and 31 made field goals. While the reeling Bulldogs figure to offer a reprieve, at least on paper, I'm not so easily convinced. Note that Florida has been giving up scoring opportunities aplenty with 11 of its last 13 opponents hoisting up at least 60 field goal attempts. Georgia's offense has been stuck in the mud but has also been held to 56 or fewer field goal attempts in nine of its last 10 games. Here, I think we see the Bulldogs push the pace more than usual, noting that they got off a whopping 68 FG attempts in a loss but ATS cover in the last meeting between these teams. Note that Castleton had seven blocks and eight defensive boards in that game so his absence figures to open things up. I mentioned Florida's struggling defense but Georgia is in the same boat. The Bulldogs have allowed 39, 37 and 33 made field goals over their last three contests. Like Florida, Georgia has also had a difficult time slowing down the opposition, yielding at least 57 FG attempts in 15 of its last 17 games. After a lull in late January and early February, the Gators have connected on 32, 29, 22, 26 and 27 field goals over their last five games. Take the over (10*).

Big 12 Game of the Month. My selection is on Iowa State minus the points over West Virginia at 9 pm et on Monday.

Last Monday we saw West Virginia rout Oklahoma State but I think the shoe is on the other foot this week as the Mountaineers stay on the road for a second game in three days. WVU is coming off a narrow two-point defeat at mighty Kansas on Saturday. The Mountaineers have now hoisted up more than 60 field goal attempts in three straight games but I think they're in for a 'shock to the system' against a revenge-minded Cyclones squad on Monday. That's because Iowa State ranks eighth in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency and 325th in adjusted tempo this season, not to mention the fact that it has faced the sixth most difficult schedule (all according to KenPom). The Cyclones are coming off three straight losses, both SU and ATS, going cold offensively at the wrong time. I do think the door is open for a breakout performance offensively here, however, noting that West Virginia has allowed 30, 26, 29, 20 and 28 made field goals over its last five games. The outlier over that stretch came against a fast-fading Oklahoma State squad last Monday. There really wasn't much separating these two teams in their earlier meeting this season - a game West Virginia won by a 76-71 score. The difference ended up being the Mountaineers making good on seven more free throws, getting to the charity stripe 31 times in that contest. The Cyclones have been a more disciplined team in that regard here at home this season, where they've yielded just 17 free throw attempts per contest. Take Iowa State (10*).

Pac-12 Game of the Week. My selection is on Stanford minus the points over Washington at 6 pm et on Sunday.

We won with the 'under' in Stanford's home loss against Washington State on Thursday but I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the Cardinal as they look to take their frustrations out on Washington, and snap their three-game skid in the process, on Sunday. Washington has been fortunate to run into a very manageable schedule lately, reeling off three straight victories over Oregon, Oregon State and California. The Huskies have been fortunate that their last two opponents haven't been able to make the most of their scoring opportunities as punchless Beavers and Golden Bears squads made good on just 20 field goals apiece despite both getting off well north of 60 field goal attempts. Should the Cardinal reach that level of shot-volume here they have the potential to go off offensively. Stanford has been the picture of consistency from an offensive standpoint, knocking down 23 or more field goals in eight straight games and 28 or more in half of those contests. A tough slate of opponents let to a defensive lull from Stanford earlier this month but I did like what I saw on Thursday as the Cardinal limited Washington State to only 48 field goal attempts in the narrow defeat. Washington doesn't figure to offer a stiff test in that regard as the Huskies have managed to get off 57 or fewer field goal attempts in six straight games, making good on 23 or less in four of those contests. This is a big revenge spot for the Cardinal after they dropped an 86-69 stunner in Washington back in January. Stanford quite simply had an off shooting night and ended up chasing for much of the game, ultimately getting off a whopping 70 FG attempts but connecting on only 24 of them. I look for a much sharper performance from the revenge-minded Cardinal here. Take Stanford (10*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Indiana and Purdue at 7:30 pm et on Saturday.

The first meeting between these two teams this season got into the 150's as both sides shot exceptionally well in Indiana's 79-74 home victory. The pace wasn't necessarily there for a high-scoring affair, nor do I expect it to be there in Saturday's rematch. Note that Indiana has had a tough enough time just getting shots off lately, let alone knocking them down. The Hoosiers have hoisted up 53 or fewer field goal attempts in four of their last five games. On the flip side, only one of their last eight opponents has gotten off 60 or more field goal attempts and Purdue, which ranks 325th in the country in adjusted tempo this season (according to KenPom) doesn't figure to challenge that here. The Boilermakers have limited six of their last seven opponents to 57 or fewer field goal attempts. Since connecting on a whopping 33 field goals in a rout of Iowa on February 9th, the Boilers have made good on just 17, 22 and 27 field goals over their last three contests. With Indiana having limited five straight and 11 of its last 12 foes to 26 or fewer made field goals, I don't anticipate anything coming easy in this one, even with revenge on the minds of the Boilers on their home floor. Take the under (8*).

Summit League Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Oral Roberts and South Dakota State at 3 pm et on Saturday.

We got exactly the result we wanted from both of these teams two nights ago as they were both involved in lower-scoring than expected affairs to set us up with a reasonable total on Saturday. This is certainly a game South Dakota State has had circled since dropping an ugly 79-40 loss in its first meeting with Oral Roberts back in December. Note that the Jackrabbits enter this game on a serious offensive tear, having knocked down at least 27 field goals in six straight games, connecting on 30 or more in four of those contests. I do worry about South Dakota State defensively in this game, however, as it serves as a potential 'shock to the system' spot after holding a punchless UMKC offense to 50 points on 19-of-58 shooting on Thursday. Keep in mind, UMKC ranks 324th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency and 330th in adjusted tempo this season according to KenPom. Oral Roberts represents a stark contrast, checking in 21st in adjusted offensive efficiency and 36th in adjusted tempo. Like South Dakota State, Oral Roberts has been on point offensively, making good on 30 or more field goals in six of its last seven and nine of its last 10 games overall. The Golden Eagles are vulnerable defensively, however, having allowed their last five opponents to knock down 30, 29, 25, 28 and 27 field goals. They've shown no interest (or ability) to slow their opponents' pace, yielding 60 or more field goal attempts in 12 of their last 14 games. South Dakota State might try to slow things down at times in this one but will be hard-pressed to do so against an ORU squad that has hoisted up 63 or more FG attempts in seven of its last nine contests. Projected to be playing from behind for much of this game as a considerable home underdog, I'm not convinced the Jackrabbits will be able to avoid the temptation of a track meet here. Keep in mind, it was almost a year to the day (February 24th, 2022) that these two teams were involved in a thriller that totalled a whopping 208 points. Take the over (10*).

Western Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Oklahoma City and Phoenix at 10:10 pm et on Friday.

I'm not convinced this will be the high-scoring track meet that most are expecting in Phoenix on Friday night. Oklahoma City is in a tough back-to-back spot after an overtime loss in Utah last night - not ideal when your conditioning might not be there after an extended All-Star break. You'd be hard-pressed to find a team as locked-in defensively as the Suns as they check in having held six of their last seven opponents to 85 or fewer field goal attempts. They allowed more than 40 made field goals just once over that stretch and that came in a game that still stayed 'under' the total in Atlanta - a game where they were short-handed on trade deadline day. Offensively, the Suns are rounding back into form with Devin Booker back in the lineup. However, they've still topped out at 43 made field goals in eight of their last nine games. The outlier came in a game where they shot the lights out against Sacramento just before the break (that contest still totalled 'only' 229 points). The Thunder have limited each of their last three opponents to fewer than 40 made field goals in regulation time. Last night's contest in Utah ended a stretch of four straight games in which they had held the opposition to fewer than 90 field goal attempts. Oklahoma City was red hot from the field earlier in the month but has since cooled off, connecting on 38, 42 and 40 field goals in regulation time over its last three contests. This is actually the first meeting between these two teams this season. They met on four occasions last season with 222 serving as the highest posted total. None of those four matchups surpassed the total we're working with tonight. As was often the case last season, I'm confident we'll see one, if not both teams bring their 'A' game defensively on Friday. Take the under (10*).

MAAC Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Fairfield and Niagara at 7 pm et on Friday.

We got the result we wanted to set up this play in last Sunday's low-scoring 61-52 Niagara loss at Marist. While the Purple Eagles rate a ridiculous 350th in the country in adjusted tempo this season (according to KenPom), the oddsmakers have adjusted their totals accordingly and we haven't seen them post consecutive 'under' results since January 20th and 22nd (only one of those games stayed 'under' the total we're working with tonight). Fairfield has seen each of its last three contests go 'over' the total. This isn't the same stout defensive Stags squad we've come to expect. They've allowed five of their last seven opponents to knock down at least 25 field goals (one of those results was aided by overtime). While Fairfield won't 'wow' you offensively, it has at least shown some consistency, making good on 21 or more field goals in 10 straight games entering Friday's matchup. This is an ideal 'get right' spot for Niagara's offense. It got off 59 field goal attempts but could only make good on 17 of them against an improved Marist squad last Sunday. On the flip side, you would have to go all the way back to December 18th to find the last time the Purple Eagles held an opponent to fewer than 20 made field goals. They've yielded 24 or more successful field goal attempts in three of their last five contests. In the lone previous matchup between these two teams this season we saw 146 total points despite the two combining to knock down only seven three-pointers (they average 12 made threes per game combined this season). The pace was there in that game and Fairfield was able to get to the free throw line with consistency (as has often been the case this season as the Stags average 21 FT attempts per game). I like the fact that this game will be played at Niagara as the Purple Eagles have been a more efficient offensive team on their home floor, averaging two more made field goals per game compared to their season average, despite getting off one less field goal attempt on average. Take the over (10*).

Pac-12 Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Washington State and Stanford at 11 pm et on Thursday.

A lot has happened since these two Pac-12 squads last met back on January 14th. Most notably, the 'over' has gone 5-4 in Washington State's last nine games and 6-4 in Stanford's last 10 contests, including three straight Cardinal 'over' results entering Thursday's rematch. I'm expecting a game closely resembling what we saw back in January here, noting that game totalled just 119 points with both teams topping out at 22 made field goals and neither getting off more than 51 field goal attempts. Note that Washington State has held five of its last six opponents to 56 or fewer FG attempts. Stanford hasn't enjoyed the same type of defensive success and let's face it, the sudden uptick in the Cardinal's pace hasn't been working in their favor as they've lost four of their last five games. With that being said, I do think Stanford can get back on track defensively here, noting that Washington State ranks 328th in the country in adjusted tempo this season, according to KenPom. The Cougars knocked down 29 and 27 field goals last week as it enjoyed consecutive wins against Oregon State and Oregon. Prior to that they had been held to 24 or fewer made field goals in eight of their last nine contests. This isn't a court where Washington State has enjoyed a ton of offensive success in recent years, knocking down 20, 22, 21 and 24 field goals in its last four trips. Stanford has been rolling along offensively, making good on 28 or more field goals in three straight games but again, that has had something to do with playing at a faster pace than we've been accustomed to seeing from the Cardinal. Note that it figures to face resistance here as Washington State ranks 53rd in the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency this season despite having faced the 15th most difficult schedule (both according to KenPom). Take the under (10*).

Sun Belt Game of the Year. My selection is on Louisiana-Lafayette minus the points over Arkansas State at 8:30 pm et on Wednesday.

The first meeting between these two teams this season saw Louisiana-Lafayette prevail by an 80-71 score on the road but that final tally doesn't tell the whole story. Arkansas State shot the lights out from beyond the arc to keep pace in that contest, knocking down 11-of-22 three-point attempts. Keep in mind, the Red Wolves average just 6-of-18 shooting from three-point range this season. In fact, Arkansas State is one of the worst offensive teams in the entire country, ranking 308th in adjusted offensive efficiency despite having faced only the 256th most difficult schedule (both according to KenPom). Not only that but the Red Wolves rank 342nd in adjusted tempo (also according to KenPom) so the scoring opportunities are rarely there to keep pace with superior opponents. That didn't stop them from securing a 75-70 win over Georgia State last time out. Of course, the Panthers have their own issues, ranking 320th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency but that's another story. Louisiana-Lafayette has hit a bit of a lull having dropped three of its last four games including a 74-68 decision on the road against a good James Madison squad last time out. I'm confident we'll see the Ragin' Cajuns take their frustrations out on the Red Wolves here, however. Note that Louisiana ranks an impressive 46th in the nation in adjusted offensive efficiency despite having faced the 139th toughest slate of opponents. The Ragin' Cajuns have been the picture of consistency from an offensive standpoint, knocking down 24 or more field goals in eight straight and 27 of 28 games overall this season. That's in stark contrast to Arkansas State, which has made good on 24 or more field goals just once in its last eight contests. The Red Wolves had a tough enough time just getting shots off let alone making them, hoisting up 51 or fewer field goal attempts in five straight games entering tonight's clash. On the flip side, while it may seem impressive that Arkansas State has held its last five opponents to just 21, 21, 25, 21 and 25 made field goals, that's had everything to do with the fact that those five foes all got off 57 or fewer FG attempts. Louisiana-Lafayette has hoisted up 58 or more FG attempts in six of its last eight games and figures to push the pace here, noting that it shot 29-of-56 in its previous road tilt against Arkansas State this season. Take Louisiana-Lafayette (10*).

Big West Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Hawaii and Cal State-Bakersfield at 8 pm et on Monday.

Bakersfield has quietly gone on a 9-0 'over' run over its last nine contests and that includes an earlier 72-69 loss on the road against tonight's opponent, Hawaii, back on January 28th. The Roadrunners were held to fewer than 20 made field goals in seven of their first 18 games this season but have since found some consistency at the offensive end of the floor, knocking down 22 or more field goals in each of their last eight games, despite ranking 344th in the country in adjusted tempo this season according to KenPom. CSUB is also coming off a stellar defensive effort in an 'upset' win at Cal-Poly last time out. Stringing together strong defensive performances has proven difficult for the Roadrunners this season, however. Note that after holding an opponent to fewer than 20 made field goals, they've allowed 72, 63, 79, 65, 71, 67 and 79 points in their next contest. They've actually held two of their last three foes to less than 20 successful FG attempts, but those games came against two of the country's weakest offensive teams in Cal State-Northridge and Cal-Poly. Hawaii ranks an impressive 66th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency this season according to KenPom but has also faced only the 272nd most difficult schedule (also according to KenPom). The Rainbow Warriors have actually allowed seven of their last nine opponents to make good on at least 23 field goals. They were fortunate Long Beach State couldn't make the most of its scoring opportunities on Saturday as the 49ers got off 60 FG attempts but only connected on 25 of them (Hawaii won that game 70-67). Here, we'll note that the 'over' is 31-16 in Hawaii's last 47 games as a road favorite or pk'em and 9-1 in CSUB's last 10 games when coming off an outright win as an underdog. Take the over (10*).

MAAC Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Rider and Quinnipiac at 2 pm et on Sunday.

When these teams last met this season they combined to score 'only' 135 points, easily staying 'under' the closing total of 143.5. We're working with a lower posted total this time around and I believe it will prove too low. Rider has gone on an offensive tear over the last month or so, knocking down 29, 30, 26, 28, 25 and 30 field goals over its last six games and that's without facing the conference's fastest-paced team, Iona, a single time over that stretch. The Broncs defensive numbers have been terrific lately as well. They had held 11 straight opponents to 23 or fewer made field goals before giving up 26 in Friday's 81-78 loss to Canisius. With that being said, those results were certainly due in part to the slow-paced opponents they faced. Here, they'll be up against a Quinnipiac squad that ranks 57th in the country in adjusted tempo this season according to KenPom. Like the Broncs, the Bobcats have been consistently good offensively of late, connecting on 27, 29, 23, 29, 24 and 24 field goals over their last six games. The problem for Quinnipiac is that it is still giving up too many scoring opportunities to the opposition, allowing nine consecutive opponents to hoist up at least 58 field goal attempts. Given how hot Rider has been from the field, there's a good chance it goes off here if the pace ticks up at all. With that being said, the Bobcats are favored for a reason. I'm confident both teams do enough offensively to help this one 'over' the reasonable total. Take the over (10*).

Big 12 Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Baylor and Kansas at 4 pm et on Saturday.

We won with the 'under' in the first meeting between these two teams this season as Baylor prevailed by a score of 75-69 in a game that saw the scoring fizzle in the second half. The Bears were fortunate to win that contest as they struggled to make good on their scoring opportunities, connecting on just 23-of-62 field goal attempts. While they're the underdog this time around, I do actually expect a better offensive showing, noting that they rank first in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency this season according to KenPom and enter this game having made good on 25 or more field goals in five straight games. Few teams are as locked-in offensively as the Jayhawks right now. They've knocked down 33 or more field goals in each of their last three games. While they've posted a couple of standout defensive performances over their last five contests I still think it's worth noting that they haven't held a single opponent to fewer than 20 made field goals in a game this season. Part of that has to do with the fact that they play at a fast pace, ranking 70th in the nation in adjusted tempo (also according to KenPom). Kansas has hoisted up 60 or more FG attempts in five of its last six games overall and I'm confident we'll see it go on the aggressive in this 'revenge' spot on Saturday. Baylor, while a solid defensive team, has allowed nine consecutive opponents to knock down at least 24 field goals. Take the over (10*).

Atlantic-10 Game of the Year. My selection is on Loyola-Chicago plus the points over Dayton at 7 pm et on Friday.

Most completely wrote off Loyola-Chicago from a betting perspective in mid-January and perhaps for good reason as the Ramblers had started the 22-23 campaign with a miserable 3-15 ATS record through 18 games. Since then, however, Loyola-Chicago has gone a respectable 3-4 SU and 5-2 ATS over its last seven games and while it sits in last-place in the Atlantic-10 standings, all is not lose given all 15 teams will take part in the conference tournament in March. Here, the Ramblers will have revenge on their minds after dropping a tough 85-81 decision at Dayton back on January 31st, in a game where the Flyers owned a 31-13 disparity in terms of free throw attempts (keeping in mind Dayton only averages three more trips to the charity stripe than Loyola-Chicago this season). That game kicked off a 4-1 ATS run for the Ramblers and I look for them to improve on that mark here. Note that Loyola-Chicago has really turned things around defensively. After a stretch that saw it allow 28 or more made field goals in five of seven games from December 22nd to January 18th, they've yielded 26 or fewer made field goals in six of their last seven contests. The outlier came in a game where they allowed St. Joseph's to knock down 28 of a whopping 68 field goal attempts. Dayton is highly unlikely to approach that level of shot volume here, noting that it ranks 339th in the country in adjusted tempo this season (according to KenPom). Offensively, we've seen more consistency from the Ramblers during their recent uptick as they've knocked down 23 or more field goals in six of their last seven games with the low-water mark coming earlier this week when they made good on only 21 field goals but still pulled out a 64-62 win at UMass. As I mentioned, Dayton plays at a very slow pace. The Flyers have hoisted up 56 or fewer field goal attempts in 10 of their last 12 games overall. While they are a terrific defensive team, it's not as if they've been completely shutting down opposing offenses. Dayton has yielded at least 20 made field goals in 12 straight contests, including that game against Loyola-Chicago in which the Ramblers connected on 29-of-59 FG attempts. These two teams have faced almost identical schedules in terms of difficulty this season (according to KenPom) and while Dayton has proven to be the superior squad to be sure, Loyola-Chicago has at least narrowed the gap in recent weeks. I'm still not convinced the betting marketplace has caught up with the Ramblers improved play so I'll grab all the points I can get here. Take Loyola-Chicago (10*).

Pac-12 Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Stanford and UCLA at 11 pm et on Thursday.

It's easy to forget that the first meeting between these two teams produced 146 points as that matchup took place way back on December 1st. Since then, UCLA has been an 'under' machine, cashing at a 12-5 clip over its last 16 games. That leads us to a lower posted total for this rematch. I believe it will prove too low. Stanford enjoyed a nice run in late-January but has largely been an afterthought in the Pac-12 this season. With that being said, I have a lot of respect for the Cardinal offensively, noting that they rank 64th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency this season according to KenPom, despite facing the nation's 63rd most difficult schedule (also according to KenPom). You would have to go back 19 games to find the last time Stanford was held to fewer than 20 made field goals in a game (I use that number as UCLA has held six of its last 11 opponents to fewer than 20 made field goals). Over their last five games, the Cardinal have impressively knocked down 28, 26, 24, 23 and 33 field goals. They've scored at least 62 points in eight straight contests. Unfortunately, the Cardinal defense hasn't been along for the ride, allowing 25, 29, 27 and 28 made field goals over its last four games. There's a good chance we see the Bruins offense go off in this one, noting that Stanford has also yielded more than 60 field goal attempts in three of its last four contests opening the door for a sharp-shooting Bruins squad that has made good on 25 or more field goals in four straight games, despite hoisting up 53 or fewer field goal attempts in two of those contests. UCLA ranks 24th in the nation in adjusted offensive efficiency despite having faced the 39th toughest slate of opponents to date (both according to KenPom once again). I do expect the Bruins to get pushed a bit in this one and I believe that lends itself to a relatively high-scoring affair. Take the over (10*).

Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Phoenix at 10 pm et on Thursday.

We have a good setup for this play on Thursday as both the Clippers and Suns shot the lights out in their respective games two nights ago but are unlikely to reach those heights in a much tougher matchup here. Los Angeles took advantage of an undermanned Warriors team playing the second of back-to-backs on Tuesday, putting up a whopping 134 points in a 10-point victory. Kawhi Leonard knocked down 12-of-17 shot attempts including a ridiculous 7-of-9 from three-point range. Norm Powell also enjoyed an outlier of a night off the bench, pouring in 24 points on 10-of-17 shooting. Powell is expected to sit out Thursday's game, however. Prior to that contest, the Clippers had been held to 38 and 42 made field goals in their previous two games, getting off just 86 and 85 field goal attempts in those contests - both of which stayed 'under' the total. Defensively, the Clips have been limiting their opponents' scoring opportunities, holding five of their last eight foes to 84 or fewer FG attempts. The simple fact is, their last three opponents have shot incredibly well. I do think we see Los Angeles tighten the screws defensively here in its last game prior to the All-Star break against a familiar opponent in the Suns. Note that while Phoenix has made good on 42 or more field goals in all five meetings in this series going back to the start of 2022, it scored 'only' 106, 103, 109, 112 and 111 points in those five contests. The Suns did knock down a whopping 50 field goals in a night where everything was going in against a subpar Kings defense on Tuesday. Prior to that they had topped out at 43 made field goals over their last seven games. Few teams are as locked-in defensively as the Suns right now. They've limited five of their last six opponents to 85 or fewer FG attempts and have allowed just 35, 38, 43, 36 and 37 made field goals over that stretch. The lone outlier came in a road game at Atlanta with a short-handed lineup on trade deadline day last Thursday. Phoenix has certainly had Los Angeles' number defensively, holding it to 96 points or less in an incredible four of five meetings since last January (all five of those contests stayed 'under' the total). Take the under (10*).

Eastern Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Miami minus the points over Brooklyn at 7:40 pm et on Wednesday.

The excitement around the new-look, youthful Brooklyn Nets has faded somewhat as they've dropped consecutive games against the 76ers and Knicks. Despite catching fire from the field for stretches, the Nets still managed to knock down only 35 field goals and score just 106 points in Monday's lopsided defeat in Manhattan. You would have to go back five games to find the last time Brooklyn knocked down 40+ field goals in a game and things certainly won't get any easier as they host a Heat team coming off a loss two nights ago on Wednesday. Miami ran into a red-hot shooting Nuggets squad on Monday, falling by four points. Still, the Heat have held an incredible 16 straight opponents to 88 or fewer field goal attempts and 17 of their last 22 foes to 40 or fewer made field goals. On the flip side, the Heat have been limited to 40 or fewer made field goals in six of their last seven and 10 of their last 12 games overall. On many occasions, the opportunities just haven't been there in abundance as Miami does play at a slow pace. I don't anticipate that being an issue here, however, noting that the Nets have allowed four of their last seven opponents to hoist up more than 90 FG attempts. This is undoubtedly a game the Heat have had circled on their calendar since dropping a 102-101 decision at home against the Nets back on January 8th. Brooklyn has now won back-to-back meetings in this series which is notable as it hasn't posted three straight victories over the Heat since 2017-18. Take Miami (10*).

ACC Game of the Year. My selection is on Georgia Tech plus the points over Virginia Tech at 7 pm et on Wednesday.

We cashed a previous big ticket on Georgia Tech in its upset home win over Miami in early January but have left the Yellow Jackets alone since and probably for good reason as they followed up that victory with a 1-7 ATS slide. However, we have seen signs of life once again from Georgia Tech lately as it enters Wednesday's matchup with Virginia Tech off three straight ATS victories. Last time out it suffered a narrow one-point loss as a 13-point underdog at Wake Forest. While few are paying attention to them, I believe the Yellow Jackets are in good position to at the very least take the Hokies down to the wire on Wednesday. We haven't necessarily seen the payoff just yet but the Jackets are doing a nice job of pushing the pace, having gotten off 60 or more field goal attempts in three of their last four and seven of their last 10 games overall. Here, they'll face a Hokies squad that has been terrific offensively in recent weeks but it has seemingly come at the expense of their defensive play. Virginia Tech checks in having allowed 29, 23, 35, 25, 29 and 34 made field goals over its last six contests. Of those six opponents only two got off more than 60 field goal attempts so it's not as if the opposition has found success only by volume-shooting. As I mentioned, Virginia Tech is on a tear offensively, however Georgia Tech does figure to offer some resistance. The Yellow Jackets check in a respectable 140th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency despite facing the 66th most difficult schedule (both according to KenPom). They've held their last four opponents to just 21, 26, 23 and 23 made field goals and that's despite three of those games coming on the road. Also note that Georgia Tech has limited eight of its last 10 opponents to fewer than 60 FG attempts and ranks 220th in the nation in adjusted tempo this season. There's a path for the revenge-minded Yellow Jackets (they dropped both meetings in this series last season) to effectively shorten this game and stay inside the generous pointspread. Take Georgia Tech (10*).

Pacific Division Game of the Year. My selection is on Phoenix minus the points over Sacramento at 9:10 pm et on Tuesday.

I really like the way this spot sets up for the Suns as they try to close the gap on the Kings in the Pacific Division standings (Phoenix currently sits two games back of Sacramento for top spot). Sacramento has been a terrific story this season but we've certainly seen some regression from the Kings lately as they've gone an even 6-6 over their last 12 games. We did get the result we wanted from them on Saturday as they successfully avenged a loss to the Mavs in the second half of a back-to-back set at home, prevailing 133-128 in overtime. That sets us up with a reasonably short number in favor of the Suns at home here. While Phoenix is a little undermanned right now with Kevin Durant still sidelined and yet to make his team debut, I like the fact that it has gone back to its bread-and-butter, that being its defense, to right the ship. The Suns have won three of their last five games and are absolutely locked-in defensively right now having held four of those five opponents to 38 or fewer made field goals. Suns opponents have had a tough enough time just getting shots off let alone knocking them down, managing only 75, 81, 79, 95 and 85 field goal attempts over their last five contests. The outlier came in a game where they were severely short-handed on trade deadline day against the Hawks (Devin Booker missed that game as well). Save for that poor performance in Atlanta, the Suns have made good on more than 40 field goals in four of their last five and six of their last eight games overall. Meanwhile, Kings' opponents have been 'filling it up' lately, knocking down 48, 44, 47, 43 and 47 (aided by overtime) field goals over their last five contests. In fact, Sacramento has allowed an incredible 20 straight and 27 of its last 28 opponents to make good on 40 or more field goals. Offensively, the Kings are explosive but we've seen some inconsistency in that department lately as they've been held to fewer than 40 made field goals in three of their last six games. Take Phoenix (10*).

MAC Game of the Month. My selection is on Buffalo plus the points over Ohio at 7 pm et on Tuesday.

We won with Buffalo in the first meeting between these two teams this season and I won't hesitate to back the Bulls again in Tuesday's rematch in Ohio. While Buffalo has been involved in its share of track meets this season, I believe it is a better defensive team than most give it credit for. The Bulls got off to a terrible start at that end of the floor in non-conference play but have certainly turned things around over the last month or so, limiting eight of their last 12 opponents to 27 or fewer made field goals. That's despite 10 of those 12 foes hoisting up at least 60 field goal attempts. Of course, the Buffalo offense is going to be there. The Bulls rank 163rd in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency and fourth in adjusted tempo (both according to KenPom). They've faced the 118th most difficult schedule in the country while Ohio has gone against the 190th toughest slate of opponents (also according to KenPom). I mentioned that Buffalo has been tougher defensively than most give it credit for - I feel the opposite is true for Ohio. The Bobcats have allowed four of their last five opponents to knock down at least 28 field goals. They've been consistently allowing opponents to get well into the 20's in terms of made field goals despite holding seven of their last eight foes to fewer than 60 field goal attempts. Offensively, the Bobcats have admittedly been red hot lately, making good on 30 or more field goals in four of their last seven games. Of course three of those 30+ field goal performances came against three of the MAC's worst teams in Central Michigan, Western Michigan and Eastern Michigan. Take Buffalo (10*).

ACC Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Miami and North Carolina at 7 pm et on Monday.

This total is about as high as you would expect in this matchup, noting that we saw a closing total of 154 in a game that totalled only 142 points in the most recent meeting between the two teams last season. While North Carolina is always going to be known for its offense, it can play some defense as well. The Tar Heels have held nine of their last 10 opponents to 27 or fewer made field goals while also limiting six of their last nine foes to 57 or fewer field goal attempts. North Carolina checks in ranked a respectable 46th in adjusted defensive efficiency this season according to KenPom. The Hurricanes are admittedly red hot offensively right now, having made good on more than 30 field goals in three of their last four games. However, their margin for error hasn't been all that large as they've gotten off fewer than 60 field goal attempts in four of their last six games and 60 or less in eight of their last 10 contests overall. Miami hasn't played its best defensive basketball lately, yielding 28 or more made field goals in three of its last four games with Saturday's poor performance at that end of the floor against Louisville perhaps serving as a low-water mark (it allowed the Cardinals to knock down 33-of-57 field goal attempts). The Canes have managed to limit their opponents scoring opportunities to a certain extent, however, allowing just 51, 59, 54 and 57 FG attempts over their last four games. That type of discipline defensively would undoubtedly serve them well in an underdog role against the Tar Heels here. Take the under (10*).

MAAC Game of the Week. My selection is on Marist plus the points over Siena at 2 pm et on Sunday.

I'll grab all the points I can get with the underdog Red Foxes in this Sunday MAAC matchup. Siena took the first meeting between these two teams this season by 15 points back on January 29th. Marist had an absolutely dreadful game from beyond the arc, knocking down only 2-of-18 three-point attempts. Keep in mind, it averages seven made threes per game on the season. In that previous meeting, Siena also got to the free throw line 13 more times, making good on 10 of those attempts. These are disparities I just don't see repeating themselves in Sunday's rematch. Marist has held five of its last six opponents to 58 or fewer field goal attempts, giving it a path to effectively shorten this contest as a large underdog on Sunday. The only occasion where it allowed more than that number, it won by eight points against Canisius. Offensively, the Red Foxes managed to get off 61 FG attempts against St. Peter's on Friday, but simply couldn't make the most of their opportunities, knocking down only 19. Prior to that they had made good on 20 or more field goals in five straight games. Here, they'll face a Siena squad that has yielded at least 20 made field goals in 18 consecutive games, despite each of its last 11 opponents getting off fewer than 60 FG attempts. Offensively, the Saints have been limited to 52 or fewer FG attempts in three of their last four games, knocking down 22 or fewer field goals in all four of those contests. Take Marist (10*).

WCC Game of the Year. My selection is on BYU plus the points over Gonzaga at 10 pm et on Saturday.

We got precisely the results we wanted in these two teams' most recent games earlier this week. BYU suffered a stunning double-digit loss at Pepperdine while Gonzaga rolled to a blowout win over San Francisco. That sets the Bulldogs up as a big double-digit favorite against the Cougars here. Note that BYU nearly staged the upset against the mighty Zags at home earlier this season, dropping a 75-74 decision as a +6.5-point underdog. Despite the loss on Thursday, BYU does enter this game playing well offensively - better than it was the last time it faced the Zags. The Cougars have made good on 35, 29 and 29 field goals over their last three contests. On the flip side, they've held six straight opponents to fewer than 60 field goal attempts. Gonzaga shot the lights out against San Francisco last time out, knocking down a whopping 34 field goals. The Bulldogs haven't made good on 30 or more field goals in consecutive games over their last six contests. Defensively, Gonzaga has allowed 27 or more made field goals in four of its last six games with four of its last five foes hoisting up at least 60 FG attempts. In other words, the scoring opportunities should be there for the underdog Cougars on Saturday. Take BYU (10*).

Pac-12 Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Colorado and Utah at 10 pm et on Saturday.

We won with Colorado in its most recent game as it shot the lights out in the second half in an eventual blowout win over Stanford last Sunday. The Buffaloes aren't exactly known for their offense, noting they rank 141st in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency this season according to KenPom. Prior to last Sunday's breakout performance, Colorado had been held to 24 or fewer made field goals in seven of its previous eight games. The going won't be easy on the road against a Utah squad that ranks a respectable 30th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency. Speaking of that metric, Colorado checks in 19th in the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency. The Buffaloes have limited six straight opponents to 57 or fewer field goal attempts with only three of those opponents getting north of 50. Utah, like Colorado, has been inconsistent offensively. It could only connect on 21-of-57 field goal attempts against a bad California defense last time out. The Utes have been held to 22 or fewer made field goals in three of their last four games with 25 being their high-water mark over that stretch. Both meetings between these two teams last season were surprisingly high-scoring, getting into the 150's despite closing totals in the high-130's. I believe those results are helping play a factor in keeping this total a little higher than it should be on Saturday. Take the under (10*).

Western Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Oklahoma City and Portland at 10:10 pm et on Friday.

While the number may look sizable at first glance, I'm not sure they can set this total high enough. Opponents have been 'filling it up' against both the Thunder and Blazers lately. Oklahoma City checks in having allowed 45 or more made field goals in four of its last five games. Meanwhile, Portland has seen three straight opponents knock down at least 46 field goals. The good news is, both offenses are humming as well. The Thunder have put up 120 points or more in four of their last seven games and have made good on 56, 44 and 49 field goals over their last three games. They're pushing the pace at every opportunity as well, getting off more than 90 field goal attempts in each of their last five contests. It's a similar story for the Blazers. Apart from a brief lull against the Bucks earlier this week, they've knocked down 40 or more field goals in eight of their last nine games overall. While dealing away Josh Hart leaves a bit of a void offensively, that should only mean more shot attempts for the red hot Damian Lillard. You certainly don't get better defensively after dealing away a guy like Hart. You only have to go back two meetings in this series to see the last time Oklahoma City and Portland combined to put up more than 240 total points and four matchups to find the last time they got into the 260's. Take the over (10*).

MAAC Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Marist and St. Peter's at 7 pm et on Friday.

The first meeting between these two teams saw just 118 points scored in a narrow St. Peter's road victory. We're actually dealing with a higher posted total this time around than we saw in that mid-January matchup and it has a lot to do with the fact that both of these teams are coming off consecutive 'over' results. I expect those 'over' streaks to come to a halt on Friday. Marist has been pushing the pace a little more than we've been accustomed to seeing lately but that's been largely game-script dependent as it has often been playing from behind by considerable margins. Note that the Red Foxes check in ranked 336th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency and 278th in adjusted tempo despite only facing the 341st toughest slate of opponents this season (all according to KenPom). Things won't get any easier here noting that St. Peter's has been effective in severely limiting its opponents scoring opportunities, allowing fewer than 50 field goal attempts in an incredible seven straight games entering Friday's contest. Last time out, the Peacocks simply ran into a hot shooting Rider squad in an 81-62 loss. Prior to allowing the Broncs to knock down 26 field goals in that game, they had held six consecutive foes to 21 or fewer made field goals. It's been another story offensively as St. Peter's continues to struggle. It has topped out at 23 made field goals over its last six games and that came in a contest where it shot better than 52% from the field. The Peacocks rank a miserable 327th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency and 343rd in adjusted tempo. Going back to that first meeting between these two teams this season, it reached only 118 total points despite the two teams combining to shoot 51 free throws (making 38). Note that on the season, these two squads average just 21-of-30 combined from the charity stripe. Take the under (10*).

Big West Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Cal-Santa Barbara and Long Beach State at 11 pm et on Thursday.

Santa Barbara plays at one of the slowest paces in the nation yet checks into this game on the heels of four straight 'over' results, including a stunning loss as a double-digit road favorite at Cal State-Fullerton last time out. It's an interesting contrast when it comes to the Gauchos as they play slow but are ultra-efficient offensively. Here, I expect them to get plenty of good looks against a Long Beach State squad that plays at the second-fastest tempo in the country, only ranking behind Alabama in terms of adjusted tempo (according to KenPom). The 49ers enter this game off six straight wins, fortunate that a number of their recent opponents haven't been able to take advantage of their wealth of scoring opportunities. Long Beach State has allowed six of its last seven opponents to get off at least 62 field goal attempts. Last time out, it yielded a whopping 70 FG attempts against Cal-Irvine in a game that reached 181 total points. As I mentioned, the 49ers like to play fast offensively, hoisting up more than 70 FG attempts in four of their last seven contests. They've made good on 28 or more field goals in six of their last seven games overall. Cal-Santa Barbara has faced a slew of weaker Big West squads lately, favored by double-digits in four of its last five games. While the Gauchos are a top-100 team in terms of adjusted defensive efficiency this season (according to KenPom), that has had something to do with the fact they've only faced the 305th most difficult schedule in the country. It's interesting to note that Santa Barbara has been held under 70 points in each of their last three games, matching their longest such streak of the season. A date with Long Beach State should provide ample opportunity to bounce back in what projects as a relatively high-scoring affair. Take the over (10*).

Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Los Angeles plus the points over Milwaukee at 10 pm et on Thursday.

I'll take a flyer on the Lakers here as they catch a generous helping of points against the Bucks on Thursday night. Everything went right for Milwaukee on Monday as it cruised to a 19-point win over the Blazers in Portland. The Bucks were certainly fortunate that Portland had an off night shooting as the Blazers actually got off 91 field goal attempts in that contest. Milwaukee is still giving up far too many scoring opportunities for my liking, allowing each of its last five opponents to hoist up at least 91 field goal attempts. Here, they'll face a Lakers squad that brings solid offensive form to the table having made good on 48, 42, 45 and 49 field goals over their last four games. Note that the Bucks enter this game off consecutive ATS wins which is notable as they haven't strung together three straight ATS victories since the first week of November. The Bucks are a long-term 113-166 ATS when coming off three or more consecutive straight-up wins, as is the case here. Despite their lopsided win in Portland on Monday, they're still just 14-12 SU on the road this season, where they've been outscored by an average margin of 2.4 points. The Lakers are winless ATS over their last three games. That's their longest ATS losing streak since dropping the cash in five straight games from December 18th to 25th. While they're just 13-13 SU at home this season they've outscored opponents by 2.3 points on average here at Crypto.com Arena. Take Los Angeles (10*).

SEC Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Florida and Alabama at 9 pm et on Wednesday.

Despite playing at the fasted tempo in the country this season (according to KenPom), Alabama has posted just two 'over' results in its last 10 games. Each of the Crimson Tide's last two contests have stayed 'under' the total. That's helped set us up with a very reasonable total on Wednesday as the Tide host the Florida Gators. Florida checks in off a 72-67 loss at Kentucky on Saturday. Both of these teams tend to give up a ton of scoring opportunities with Florida having allowed at least 60 field goal attempts in seven straight and nine of its last 10 games overall. Alabama has yielded more than 60 field goal attempts to its opponents in 16 of its last 18 contests. While both squads rate out well in terms of adjusted defensive efficiency (again according to KenPom), I believe the door is open for both offenses to go off on Wednesday. Florida has been held under 70 points in three straight games entering this contest - its longest such streak of the season. It did show some signs of life offensively last time out, knocking down 23 field goals in a tough spot at Kentucky. After facing a pair of down-trodden squads in Vandy and LSU over its last two games, I believe Alabama could be in for a bit of a 'shock to the system' here, noting that prior to holding those two foes under 20 made field goals, the Crimson Tide had allowed seven of their previous eight opponents to knock down more than 20 field goals. Offensively, Alabama is elite. The Crimson Tide continue to 'fill it up', making good on at least 25 field goals in an incredible 15 of their last 16 games overall. The Gators were locked-in defensively earlier in the campaign but have since sagged in that regard, allowing eight of their last 10 opponents to knock down at least 22 field goals - a number Alabama is sure to eclipse with ease here. The pace will be there, whether this total proves high enough will depend on whether the two teams can make the most of their scoring opportunities. I'm confident they will, noting that last year's lone meeting reached 153 total points despite both teams shooting worse than 43% from the field. Take the over (10*).

Non-Conference Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between San Antonio and Toronto at 7:40 pm et on Wednesday.

This one has the potential to get ugly fast for the Spurs. However, rather than lay the points with the Raptors, we'll play the 'over' in this spot as I am confident San Antonio can punch back for stretches in this game. The Spurs are the worst defensive team we've seen in the NBA in quite some time. They enter this game in their absolute worst form of the season having allowed six straight and eight of their last nine opponents to knock down at least 46 field goals with five of those foes hitting 50 or more, including their most recent opponent, the Chicago Bulls. On the road this season, they're allowing a ridiculous average of 47 made field goals per game, leading to just north of 125 points per contest. The Raptors enter this game playing fast. They've hoisted up 90 or more field goal attempts in seven of their last eight games. They've made good on 40 or more field goals in 11 straight contests. On the flip side, the Raptors have been doing a good job of slowing their opponents down. I'm just not sure they'll need to given the wealth of scoring opportunities they're likely to have at the offensive end of the floor in this one. Note that Toronto did hold an opponent to fewer than 40 made field goals for the first time in six games on Sunday in Memphis. Of course, that was with the Grizzlies missing a number of key contributors including Ja Morant, not to mention the fact that Memphis got off just 78 field goal attempts in the game (they knocked down 38 of them). Should the pace tick up at all in this one, as I suspect it will, the potential is there for the Spurs to go off offensively. Despite San Antonio's lack of success from a win-loss perspective, it does enter this game having made good on 40 or more field goals in five straight contests and 27 of their last 30 games overall. Note that both of these teams are coming off an off day (two in the case of Toronto) and will also have the day off on Thursday. No reason for either to hold anything back in this one. Take the over (10*).

ACC Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Louisville and Pittsburgh at 7 pm et on Tuesday.

The first meeting between these two teams fizzled this season as Pittsburgh rolled to a 75-54 road win on January 18th. We're working with a lower posted total this time around and I believe it will prove too low. Louisville has shown some signs of life offensively of late, knocking down 25 or more field goals in three of its last four games. The Cardinals had their share of opportunities in that first meeting with Pitt but simply couldn't convert, making good on just 19 field goals. It's not as if Pitt is a defensive juggernaut. The Panthers have allowed 10 of their last 11 opponents to knock down at least 23 field goals. They were fortunate last time out that North Carolina had an off night shooting, as the Tar Heels actually got off a whopping 66 field goal attempts, but could only hit 23 of them. Here, I'm just not convinced we see a peak performance from the Pitt defense against an opponent it has already manhandled this season. On the flip side, the Panthers figure to take advantage of an awful Louisville defense that has seemingly gotten even looser lately, allowing three straight opponents to get off more than 60 FG attempts. Pitt enters this contest having made good on 28, 26 and 25 field goals over its last three games and has hoisted up 55 or more FG attempts in seven of its last eight overall. Take the over (10*).

Underdog Game of the Month. My selection is on San Antonio plus the points over Chicago at 8:10 pm et on Monday.

The Bulls are in uncharted territory right now having reeled off four straight home wins (their longest previous home win streak this season lasted only three games). I can't help but feel they're in for a letdown on Monday, however, as they host the lowly Spurs, who haven't tasted victory since January 17th. This one might not be as straight-forward as it looks on paper for Chicago, noting that San Antonio has actually taken two of three meetings in this series going back to last season, including a 129-124 victory as a five-point underdog back in late October. While the Spurs enter this game riding an eight-game losing streak (seven straight losses ATS), they have shown signs of life lately, knocking down 48, 42, 48 and 52 field goals over their last four games. In their last five contests playing with at least a day's rest on the road, they've lost by three in New York, eight and six (in a two-game set) in Memphis, by 20 in Portland and by nine in Los Angeles (against the Lakers). So it's not as if they've been getting their doors blown off away from home. Defensively, San Antonio is arguably the league's worst team and it certainly doesn't head to Chicago in solid form in that regard. With that being said, the Bulls are certainly poised for some regression offensively. Chicago has actually gotten off 81 or fewer field goal attempts in four straight games, but managed to knock down 41 or more of those shots on three occasions over that stretch. I don't think the numbers add up to extended pointspread success. Here, we'll note that the Bulls are a long-term 112-154 ATS when playing at home off consecutive ATS wins. Take San Antonio (10*).

Horizon League Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Wisconsin-Green Bay and Wisconsin-Milwaukee at 8 pm et on Monday.

The first meeting between these two in-state rivals totalled 148 points back in December. We're dealing with a considerably higher posted total this time around as a result, but I believe it's warranted. Green Bay enters this contest off four straight 'under' results. The Phoenix have shot poorly over that stretch - in fact, they've been held to fewer than 20 made field goals in four straight games, their longest such streak of the season. I do think the pace alone should get them over the hump here, however, noting that Wisconsin-Milwaukee ranks 17th in the country in adjusted tempo according to KenPom. The Panthers have allowed 16 consecutive opponents to knock down more than 20 field goals. Their last game snapped a stretch of nine straight contests in which they allowed 62 or more field goal attempts. Keep in mind, the pitiful Phoenix made good on 23 field goals and scored 67 points in the first meeting between these teams this season. The Panthers were fortunate to secure a 72-69 win over IUPUI last time out. They got off a whopping 69 FG attempts in that contest but could only hit 26 of them. I certainly anticipate them improving on that shooting percentage here, noting that Green Bay ranks a miserable 361st in the nation (that's third-to-last) in adjusted defensive efficiency (also according to KenPom). Take the over (10*).

Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Denver and Minnesota at 7:10 pm et on Sunday.

PLEASE NOTE: I released this play in the early morning hours when the total was in the high-230's. With the news of Jokic, Murray and Gordon possibly all sitting for the Nuggets, it has dropped considerably. I do still recommend the play at the current number, albeit with a lower confidence level.

We just missed with the 'under' in the Nuggets rout of the Hawks last night but I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play as Denver hits the road for a back-to-back spot at Minnesota on Sunday. Last night's game ended a streak of 11 straight games in which the Nuggets held opponents to fewer than 90 field goal attempts. The lopsided nature of that affair against Atlanta certainly contributed to Denver's relatively loose defensive play. 'Fat and happy' off three straight wins, scoring 122 or more points in all three contests, I'm not convinced we'll see a peak offensive performance from Denver again on Sunday. Minnesota will certainly be focused on tightening things up defensively after allowing Orlando to go off for 127 points in an 'upset' home loss on Friday. Prior to that contest, the Timberwolves had seen seven straight games stay 'under' the total and the 'under' remains 18-13 in their home games this season. Take the under (10*).