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N.L. Non-Division Game of the Week. My selection is on Milwaukee -1.5 runs over Arizona at 7:40 pm et on Monday.

I understand the hesitation to lay an extra run with a Brewers team that has had a tough enough time simply winning games lately, let alone by margin. With that being said, I like the spot on Monday as the Brew Crew look to bounce back from consecutive one-run losses against the Marlins as they host a D'Backs club simply playing out the string on the final stop of this road trip that has already taken them to Houston and San Francisco. Brewers starter Brandon Woodruff has supplanted Corbin Burnes as the team's 'ace', reeling off a stretch of four consecutive incredible outings. Over that stretch, Woodruff has allowed just four earned runs on 18 hits while striking out 42 and walking only five in 26 innings of work. Arizona will counter with rookie left-hander Tommy Henry. He got off to a reasonably solid start this season but the wheels have since come off as he's been tagged for 17 earned runs on 20 hits over his last three starts, covering a span of just 13 innings. Behind Henry is a D'Backs bullpen that has posted a 5.96 ERA and 1.54 WHIP over the last seven games. Noting that the Brewers have won each of Woodruff's last three starts by 3+ runs, I'm comfortable backing them on the run-line here. Take Milwaukee -1.5 runs (10*).

My selection is on Seattle -1.5 runs over Kansas City at 7:10 pm et on Saturday.

The Royals took the opener of this series last night, their fourth consecutive win. The Mariners have been stumbling lately but we've picked our spots wisely backing them and we'll do so again here with Logan Gilbert on the mound against Kris Bubic. Gilbert is in terrific form, having allowed just two earned runs over his last four starts, covering a span of 23 innings. The Mariners last three victories with Gilbert starting have come by seven, three and eight-run margins. It's been a much different story for Kris Bubic of the Royals. He has allowed 10 earned runs over his last two outings. He checks in with an 8.36 ERA and 2.00 WHIP over his last three starts. The Royals have dropped his last seven starts with all seven of those losses coming by 2+ runs and the last three by three runs or more. Take Seattle -1.5 runs (8*).

My selection is on Los Angeles -1.5 runs over Arizona at 10:10 pm et on Thursday.

The D'Backs have surprisingly come back with consecutive wins over the Dodgers after opening the series with two straight losses. Here, I look for Los Angeles to answer back in the finale of an extended five-game set. To say that Dodgers starter Julio Urias has owned the D'Backs over the course of his career would be an understatement. He has posted a sparkling 1.59 ERA and 0.78 WHIP in seven outings against them with the Dodgers going 6-1 in those games. All six of those victories have come by 2+ runs. D'Backs starter Zac Gallen actually outdueled Urias in a previous matchup back in late April this season. Gallen didn't allow a run over six innings while Urias gave up a solo home run in an eventual 3-1 Arizona win. I look for Urias and the Dodgers to get an ounce of revenge here, noting that Gallen will be starting on four days' rest after allowing five earned runs over his last two starts, covering a span of 11 1/3 innings. While the D'Backs bullpen has held up reasonably well over the last couple of nights, it still entered last night's contest having converted just 17 saves while blowing 13 on the road this season, posting a collective 4.79 ERA and 1.40 WHIP along the way. The Los Angeles relief corps entered last night's game having logged a 3.39 ERA and 1.11 WHIP while making good on 23 saves and blowing only nine at home this season. Take Los Angeles -1.5 runs (8*).

A.L. West Game of the Month. My selection is on Seattle -1.5 runs over Los Angeles at 4:05 pm et on Monday.

The Mariners have inexplicably dropped the first three games of this series and while the Angels would like nothing better than to play spoiler against their division rivals in Monday afternoon's series-finale, I expect Seattle to have other ideas. The Mariners have the right pitcher on the mound to stem the tide in Logan Gilbert. He's arguably been their best starter all season, checking in with a 3.46 FIP and 1.21 WHIP while holding opponents to just under 3.5 runs per nine innings. Note that the Mariners are 4-1 in Gilbert's five career outings against the Angels with three of those wins coming by at least two runs. Jose Suarez will counter for Los Angeles. He owns a 4.02 FIP and 1.28 WHIP while yielding north of 3.9 runs per nine innings. The Mariners chased him after 5 1/3 innings in an 8-2 win here in Anaheim back on August 16th. While things have gone well for the Angels in this series, their bullpen still entered yesterday's action sporting a 6.29 ERA and 1.60 WHIP over the last seven games. The Mariners 'pen went into Sunday's contest with a 3.56 ERA and 1.17 WHIP with 20 saves converted and only six blown on the road this season. Take Seattle -1.5 runs (10*).

My selection is on Chicago -1.5 runs over Detroit at 6:10 pm et on Saturday.

The Tigers had arguably their most favorable starting pitching matchup of this series last night and took advantage in a 3-2 victory. As much as they'd like to play spoiler again on Saturday, I expect the White Sox to answer back. Johnny Cueto will take the ball for Chicago. He's enjoyed a 'turn back the clock' season of sorts but certainly didn't have his best stuff in a blowout loss against the A's in Oakland last time out. This is the type of big game the Sox brought the veteran in for and I expect him to pitch well, noting he owns a 2.30 ERA and 1.19 WHIP in 11 previous road starts this season. The last time he faced Detroit back in early July he tossed eight shutout innings in one of his best outings of the season. Left-hander Eduardo Rodriguez will counter for the Tigers. He has labored through 13 starts this season, posting a 4.50 ERA and 1.57 WHIP. Over his last three outings he has been tagged for 13 earned runs in 16 innings, yielding five home runs over that stretch. He was ineffective in his lone previous start against Chicago this season, giving up three earned runs while lasting only four innings. Noting that each of the White Sox last six victories has come by 2+ runs, I'm comfortable laying the extra run here. Take Chicago -1.5 runs (8*).

N.L. East Game of the Month. My selection is on Atlanta -1.5 runs over Philadelphia at 7:20 pm et on Friday.

The Braves have lost four of their last five games but they had the benefit of an off-day following a long road trip yesterday and I expect them to right the ship on Friday against division-rival Philadelphia. N.L. Cy Young candidate Max Fried would seem to be the right guy to have on the mound to start the turn-around. Fried checks in with a 2.42 ERA and 1.13 WHIP with the Braves winning 11 of his 16 home starts this season. The last time he pitched against Philadelphia, the Braves fell by a 6-4 score on the road. It was still a fine outing for Fried as he allowed just three earned runs while striking out eight and not walking a single batter over six innings. His counterpart on Friday will be fellow left-hander Ranger Suarez of the Phillies. He's had an up-and-down season and should be in tough here as the Braves get their fourth look at him, having already plated 12 runs in 16 innings against him this season. Note that of Suarez's nine team losses this season, eight of them have come by multiple runs. The only one that didn't was a game where Philadelphia didn't score a run in a 1-0 defeat against Cincinnati. The Braves two previous victories against Suarez this season came by scores of 8-4 and 4-1. Take Atlanta -1.5 runs (10*).

My selection is on New York -1.5 runs over Chicago at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday.

The Mets have inexplicably dropped the first two games against a Cubs team that is simply playing out the string at this point. I'm confident we'll see them answer back on Wednesday. Drew Smyly will take the ball for Chicago. He's coming off one of his best starts of the season, tossing seven innings of one-run ball against the Giants. Consistency hasn't been his calling card, however, noting that he was tagged for seven earned runs in just 2 1/3 innings against the Cardinals in the start previous to that. In 12 nighttime starts this season, the Cubs have won just twice and Smyly has recorded a 4.71 ERA and 1.38 WHIP. David Peterson will counter for New York. He's coming off a shaky outing against the Mets, allowing three earned runs in only 3 2/3 innings. There's still a lot to like about Peterson as he's allowed just one home run in his last six starts. In his lone previous outing against the Cubs this season he didn't allow an earned run over five innings, striking out eight along the way. Noting that the Mets last five wins have come by 4, 4, 10, 8 and 6 runs, I'm comfortable laying the extra run with the Mets here. Take New York -1.5 runs (8*).

N.L. Game of the Month. My selection is on Atlanta -1.5 runs over San Francisco at 9:45 pm et on Tuesday.

The Giants got past the Braves by a 3-2 score last night, taking advantage of an off night from the Atlanta offense. Here, I look for the visiting Braves to answer back and bring an end to their three-game slide. As I've talked about all season long, Braves starter Kyle Wright is one of the most underrated pitchers in baseball. With that being said, he's coming off his worst outing of the season last week against the A's. He also struggled in his lone previous start against the Giants this season. Noting that he has posted a 3.69 FIP and 1.15 WHIP while allowing only 3.4 runs per nine innings this season, I'm confident he'll make the necessary adjustments and bounce back here. Jakob Junis will counter for the Giants. He's labored through his last two starts, lasting just 4 1/3 innings in each outing. He checks in with a 3.82 FIP and 1.18 WHIP while allowing just shy of 4.1 runs per nine innings this season. The Giants bullpen held up well last night but still owns a less than impressive 4.12 ERA and 1.36 WHIP at home this season. The Braves 'pen on the other hand has posted a 3.27 ERA and 1.18 WHIP while converting 26 saves and blowing only nine on the road. Take Atlanta -1.5 runs (10*).

Interleague Game of the Week. My selection is on Chicago -1.5 runs over Colorado at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday.

The hard-charging White Sox still believe they have a shot at the postseason but this is precisely the type of matchup they'll need to take advantage of if they're to play their way into October. The Rockies are coming off a 4-2 homestand but the road hasn't been kind to them this season (that's nothing new). Colorado checks in a woeful 21-46 away from home this season where it has been outscored by 2.1 runs per game. Chad Kuhl will get the start for the visiting Rockies. He had a solid start to his Rockies tenure earlier this season but the wheels have since fallen off. Kuhl owns an ugly 6.29 ERA and 1.65 WHIP in 13 road starts, averaging fewer than five innings per outing. That spells trouble when you consider Colorado's bullpen has posted a collective 5.27 ERA and 1.54 WHIP over the last seven games. Michael Kopech hasn't been much better for Chicago but at least he's pitched well here at home where he owns a 2.97 ERA and 1.01 WHIP in 12 starts. Behind him is a White Sox bullpen that has posted a collective 1.20 WHIP over the last seven contests. Take Chicago -1.5 runs (10*).

My selection is on Atlanta -1.5 runs over Colorado at 7:20 pm et on Wednesday.

We’ll continue to fade Rockies starter Ryan Feltner, despite the fact that the Rockies have managed to split his last four outings.

Feltner checks in with a 4.92 FIP and 1.42 WHIP while allowing 6.16 runs per nine innings on the season.

His counterpart on Wednesday will be Kyle Wright, who I consider to be one of the most underrated starters in baseball this year. Wright owns a 3.56 FIP and 1.13 WHIP while holding the opposition to just 3.17 runs per nine innings.

The bullpen matchup goes to the Braves in this one as well as their relief corps has been terrific at home this season while the Rockies ‘pen has been a disaster (as usual) on the road. Take Atlanta -1.5 runs (8*).

My selection is on St. Louis -1.5 runs over Cincinnati at 6:40 pm et on Wednesday.

We’ll back the Cardinals on Wednesday as they hand the ball to Jose Quintana against Mike Minor of the Reds.

Quintana has enjoyed a ‘turn back the clock’ type of season, posting a 3.28 FIP and 1.32 WHIP while allowing just shy of 4.0 runs per nine innings.

It’s been a much different story for Minor as he has labored through the 2022 campaign, recording a 5.89 FIP and 1.54 WHIP while getting tagged for 6.55 runs per nine frames.

As far as recent form goes, the bullpen matchup is fairly even. With that being said, the Cards certainly have the superior stable of relief arms and I’m confident they can put this one away. Take St. Louis -1.5 runs (8*).

My selection is on Milwaukee -0.5 runs first five innings over Pittsburgh at 2:10 pm et on Wednesday.

The Brewers own a considerable starting pitching edge in this matchup.

Pirates starter Zach Thompson has been awful this season, logging a 5.33 FIP and 1.54 WHIP while allowing 5.85 runs per nine innings.

Meanwhile, Freddy Peralta has battled through injuries and as a result has only pitched 63 1/3 innings for the Brewers, but he’s fared well when he’s been out there, posting a 2.97 FIP and 1.07 WHIP while yielding only 3.69 runs per nine frames.

The Pirates actually have the stronger bullpen, in terms of recent form anyway, so there’s no real edge for the Brew Crew in the later innings. We’ll back them in the first five innings only as a result. Take Milwaukee -0.5 runs first five innings (8*).

A.L. Central Game of the Month. My selection is on Kansas City +0.5 runs first five innings over Chicago at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday.

You could certainly make the argument that the Royals are the superior team in this matchup based on recent form. It's not an argument at all as to who the better starting pitcher is in this matchup, at least this season, as Brady Singer has been a pleasant surprise for Kansas City while Lucas Giolito has fallen flat on his face for the White Sox.

Singer enters this start sporting a 3.55 FIP and 1.11 WHIP while allowing just north of 3.3 runs per nine innings this season. He just faced the White Sox on August 9th, giving up only one earned run over 7 1/3 innings of work. For his career, he has posted a 3.05 ERA and 1.17 WHIP in seven outings against Chicago.

We'll back the Royals in the first five innings only here as their bullpen continues to struggle and is quite simply among the worst in the league in most categories.

Lucas Giolito owns a 4.09 FIP and 1.50 WHIP while yielding north of 5.4 runs per nine innings for the White Sox this season. While he is coming off one of his best outings of the season, that's not saying much as he gave up one earned run on four hits while striking out only three and walking two in 6 1/3 innings against the Orioles last time out. In two previous starts against Kansas City this season, Giolito has allowed four earned runs in 10 innings. Take Kansas City +0.5 runs first five innings (10*).

My selection is on Atlanta -1.5 runs over Colorado at 7:20 pm et on Tuesday.

With the Braves coming off consecutive losses and favorites getting roasted across the board last night, I can understand the hesitancy to back Atlanta here. I won't shy away, however, as the Braves have a considerable starting pitching edge that should contribute to a comfortable, bounce-back victory.

Jose Urena will get the start for the visiting Rockies. To say that his 2022 campaign hasn't gone well would be an understatement. Urena checks in with a 5.65 FIP and 1.67 WHIP while allowing 6.9 runs per nine innings. The Braves actually got two looks at Urena two seasons ago, plating seven earned runs in only 11 innings.

Atlanta will turn to its ace, Max Fried, on Tuesday. He's posted Cy Young Award-caliber numbers this season, a 2.55 FIP and 1.02 WHIP while giving up only 2.7 runs per nine innings. Note that he faced the Rockies once previously this year and went eight shutout innings, on the road no less.

While the Braves bullpen has struggled a bit lately, a return home should help matters, noting that Atlanta's relief corps owns a collective 3.35 ERA and 1.18 WHIP here at Truist Park this season. Meanwhile, the Rockies 'pen checks in with a 5.41 ERA and 1.59 WHIP away from home. Take Atlanta -1.5 runs (8*).

My selection is on St. Louis -0.5 runs first five innings over Cincinnati at 6:40 pm et on Monday.

We settled for a push with the Cardinals in the first five innings against Atlanta last night. Here, I won't hesitate to go back to the well, this time laying the half-run as St. Louis travels to Cincinnati to open a series against the Reds.

Miles Mikolas will be looking for revenge after struggling in his most recent start against Cincinnati. On the season, he's been terrific, posting a 3.72 FIP and 1.02 WHIP while allowing just shy of 3.7 runs per nine innings.

My concern with the Cardinals is their bullpen as it entered last night's action sporting a collective ERA north of six and a WHIP approaching 1.50 over the last seven games. The Reds 'pen had recorded a 3.04 ERA and 1.31 WHIP over the same stretch.

Cincinnati will give newly-signed Chase Anderson the start on Monday. He's struggled in the minors with Tigers and Rays affiliates, posting a 4.50 ERA and 1.33 WHIP while allowing 1.8 home runs per nine innings. Keep in mind, in 48 innings with the Phillies last season, Anderson posted a 5.86 FIP and 1.48 WHIP. He draws a tough matchup in the hot-hitting Cardinals on Monday. Take St. Louis -0.5 runs first five innings (8*).

My selection is on Houston -0.5 runs first five innings over Baltimore at 2:10 pm et on Sunday.

The Astros have inexplicably dropped the first two games of this series but I look for them to answer back, at least early on in Sunday's series-finale. We'll back them in the first five innings only as they have a considerable starting pitching advantage but there's not much of a disparity between the two bullpens, so no real edge in the later innings.

Austin Voth will get the start for Baltimore. He checks in having posted a 4.04 FIP and 1.44 WHIP while allowing 5.1 runs per nine innings. Note that he's lasted six innings just once in his 11 starts this season.

Houston will counter with its ace, Justin Verlander. He sports a 2.77 FIP and 0.85 WHIP while allowing only 2.36 runs per nine innings. Verlander barely broke a sweat in his most recent outing, tossing six innings of no-hit ball against the Twins. Take Houston -0.5 runs first five innings (8*).

A.L. Game of the Week. My selection is on Toronto -1.5 runs over Los Angeles at 1:35 pm et on Sunday.

The Blue Jays have been blanked in the first two games of this series bringing an end to what was a terrific run over the previous week. Here, I do look for Toronto to salvage the series-finale, and do so in convincing fashion.

Tucker Davidson will get another turn in the rotation for the Angels. Things haven't gone particularly well for him this season as he sports a 5.63 FIP and 1.75 WHIP while allowing 6.23 runs per nine innings. He's not really fooling any opposing hitters, having topped out at three strikeouts in his six previous starts this season.

Ross Stripling will counter for Toronto. He's been their most reliable starter this season, entering Sunday's start with a 2.80 FIP and 1.04 WHIP while allowing only 3.22 runs per nine innings. The Jays have been bitten by the long ball in this series but Stripling has done an excellent job of keeping the ball in the park, yielding just 0.6 home runs per nine innings.

The bullpens are virtually a wash based on recent form. I feel Toronto has enough of a starting pitching edge to warrant backing them on the run-line here. Take Toronto -1.5 runs (10*).

My selection is on New York -1.5 runs over Colorado at 7:10 pm et on Friday.

The Mets will once again have a significant edge on the mound on Friday as they send Chris Bassitt against Chad Kuhl, who makes his return from the I.L. for the Rockies.

Bassitt enters with a 3.53 FIP and 1.13 WHIP while holding opponents to just shy of 3.4 runs per nine innings. Over his last four starts, Bassitt has yielded only two earned runs in 26 innings of work. Behind Bassitt is a Mets bullpen that came into this series sporting a 2.46 ERA and 1.18 WHIP over the last seven games.

Kuhl gave up four walks and three hits over five innings (while striking out six) in a minor league rehab stint. In the bigs this season he has recorded a 5.22 FIP and 1.52 WHIP while giving up 5.5 runs per nine innings.

The Rockies bullpen continues to struggle, logging a 6.30 ERA and 1.43 WHIP over the last seven contests (entering this series). Take New York -1.5 runs (8*).

My selection is on New York -1.5 runs over Colorado at 7:10 pm et on Thursday.

This is a mismatch from all angles as the Mets send Jacob deGrom to the hill against Ryan Feltner of the Rockies.

deGrom has had electric stuff since returning to the Mets starting rotation, posting a 0.63 FIP and 0.51 WHIP in four starts, spanning 23 1/3 innings of work. He’s giving up just north of 2.3 runs per nine innings.

Behind deGrom is a Mets bullpen that has been in fine form recently, recording a collective 2.46 ERA and 1.18 WHIP over the last seven games.

Feltner has had plenty of ups and downs for the Rockies this season, with more downs than ups. He sports a 4.79 FIP and 1.39 WHIP while yielding just shy of 6.2 runs per nine frames.

The Rockies bullpen is among the worst in the league seemingly every year and 2022 has been no different. The Colorado relief corps checks in with a collective 5.92 ERA and 1.52 WHIP over the last seven contests, entering yesterday’s action. Take New York -1.5 runs (8*).

My selection is on Philadelphia -0.5 runs first five innings over Cincinnati at 7:05 pm et on Thursday.

I’ll gladly back the Phillies laying the half-run in the first five innings only on Thursday as they send Aaron Nola to the mound against Justin Dunn of the Reds.

Dunn has yet to figure it out at the big league level, recording an 8.52 FIP and 1.73 WHIP in limited action (13 1/3 innings) with the Reds this season. This is his fourth big league season after spending three years with the Mariners and his career FIP and WHIP are 5.94 and 1.40, respectively.

It’s a different story for Phillies starter Aaron Nola, who is often overshadowed by Zack Wheeler at the top of the rotation. Nola has posted a 2.76 FIP and 0.96 WHIP this season, yielding just 3.31 runs per nine innings.

We’ll avoid backing the Phillies in the full game as their bullpen continues to struggle, entering yesterday’s action sporting a collective 5.64 ERA and 1.70 WHIP over the last seven games. Take Philadelphia -0.5 runs first five innings (8*).

My selection is on Seattle -0.5 runs first five innings over Washington at 4:10 pm et on Wednesday.

The early stages of this game should be no contest based on the Mariners starting pitching advantage with impressive rookie George Kirby taking the ball against veteran Anibal Sanchez of the Nationals.

Kirby has posted a 3.38 FIP and 1.20 WHIP while allowing just shy of 3.9 runs per nine innings for the Mariners this season. The reason we’ll back the Mariners in the first five innings only here is their considerable starting pitching advantage, whereas the Nats bullpen has been terrific lately and could hold its own late.

Sanchez is having a brutal campaign, recording a 7.17 FIP and 1.46 WHIP while yielding just under 6.7 runs per nine innings. He's allowing a whopping 2.8 home runs per nine innings. Take Seattle -0.5 runs first five innings (8*).

My selection is on Detroit +0.5 runs first five innings over San Francisco at 1:10 pm et on Wednesday.

This starting pitching matchup is closer to even than most bettors likely believe as the Giants hand the ball to Logan Webb against Matt Manning of the Tigers. With Detroit’s bullpen struggling, we’ll back it in the first five innings only here.

Webb owns a 3.28 FIP and 1.18 WHIP while allowing 3.43 runs per nine innings this season. His counterpart, Matt Manning, checks in with a 3.74 FIP and 1.16 WHIP while giving up just 2.81 runs per nine innings, albeit with a smaller sample size. I will point out that Manning has posted a sub-3.00 ERA at the AAA level this season.

Note that the Giants average just 4.3 runs per game against right-handed starting pitching this season (entering last night’s action) compared to their season scoring average of 4.5 rpg. Take Detroit +0.5 runs first five innings (8*).

My selection is on Houston -0.5 runs first five innings over Minnesota at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday.

The Twins inexplicably dropped three games in a row against the Rangers over the last three days and now face the unenviable task of heading to Houston to face Justin Verlander and the Astros on Tuesday.

Aaron Sanchez will get the start for the visiting Twins. He was effective in his lone outing since joining Minnesota, that coming back on August 1st against the light-hitting Tigers. Note that in a minor league stint with the Twins AAA affiliate, St. Paul, Sanchez recorded an unimpressive 3.80 ERA and 1.23 WHIP, striking out just over 6.0 batters per nine innings. In the majors this year, Sanchez owns a 4.93 FIP and 1.68 WHIP while allowing a whopping 7.93 runs per nine innings.

Verlander hasn't had his best stuff over his last two outings but he certainly wasn't awful, yielding six earned runs in 13 innings. Note that he'll be starting on six days' rest on Tuesday which should be beneficial considering he's logged 143 innings this season. Verlander owns a 2.88 FIP and 0.88 WHIP on the season, allowing just 2.45 runs per nine innings.

We'll lay the half-run with the Astros in the first five innings only here as their bullpen has been awful lately, posting a collective 7.16 ERA and 2.14 WHIP over the last seven games. In stark contrast, the Twins 'pen owns a 1.95 ERA and 1.26 WHIP over that stretch. Take Houston -0.5 runs first five innings (8*).

My selection is on Atlanta -1.5 runs over Pittsburgh at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday.

I really like the way this one sets up for the Braves as they send their ace Max Fried to the hill against JT Brubaker of the Pirates.

Fried is having a Cy Young Award-caliber season having posted a 2.49 FIP and 1.05 WHIP while allowing just 2.79 runs per nine innings. He can get a leg up on another leading Cy Young candidate in Max Scherzer after the Mets right-hander suffered a loss against the Yankees last night. Interestingly, Fried has opposed Brubaker twice before in his career, including earlier this season, with the Braves winning both of those games by a combined 10-2 margin.

Brubaker checks in with a 3.67 FIP and 1.43 WHIP on the campaign. He has allowed just shy of 4.9 runs per nine innings. Note that Brubaker gives up 1.5 more hits, 0.5 more home runs and 1.9 more walks per nine innings compared to Fried this season.

The bullpens are 'no contest' based on recent form as the Atlanta 'pen has posted a collective 2.70 ERA and 1.11 WHIP over the last seven games while the Pittsburgh relief corps has recorded a 6.59 ERA and 1.54 WHIP over the same stretch, entering last night's action. Take Atlanta -1.5 runs (8*).

N.L. Non-Division Game of the Week. My selection is on Philadelphia -0.5 runs first five innings over Cincinnati at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday.

We actually missed with the Phillies in this same starting pitching matchup last week in Cincinnati but I won't hesitate to go back to the well again here, albeit backing Philadelphia laying a half-run in the first five innings only this time around.

Nick Lodolo will look to build off of his seven shutout innings he tossed against the Phillies last time out. That start came at home. The road hasn't been so kind to the rookie left-hander as he checks in with an 8.48 ERA and 2.06 WHIP in three outings away from home this season. On the campaign, Lodolo owns a pedestrian 4.12 FIP and 1.57 WHIP while giving up 4.45 runs per nine innings.

Ranger Suarez is having another fine season for the Phillies. He sports a 3.68 FIP and 1.29 WHIP while allowing 3.86 runs per nine innings. Note that the Reds average 4.1 runs per game against left-handed starting pitching this season (compared to their season scoring average of 4.3 rpg) and just 3.6 runs per game on the road, entering last night's action.

We'll play the first five innings only as the Phillies bullpen has admittedly struggled lately, entering this series with a 5.72 ERA and 1.64 WHIP over the last seven games. Contrast that with the Reds 'pen which posted a collective 2.49 ERA and 1.26 WHIP over the same stretch. Take Philadelphia -0.5 runs first five innings (10*).

A.L. Non-Division Game of the Year. My selection is on Tampa Bay -1.5 runs over Kansas City at 4:10 pm et on Saturday.

I really like the way this one sets up for the Rays off last night's tough extra innings loss.

Kris Bubic will take the ball for Kansas City. He checks in sporting a 4.62 FIP and 1.60 WHIP while allowing just shy of 5.8 runs per nine innings. The Rays will be seeing the left-hander for the second time this season and I expect them to improve on the numbers they posted back in late July (two earned runs in seven innings).

The Kansas City bullpen has posted a 5.64 ERA and 1.70 WHIP over the last seven contests.

Drew Rasmussen will counter for Tampa Bay. We won with the Rays in his most recent start and I won't hesitate to go back to the well here. Rasmussen owns a 3.36 FIP and 1.08 WHIP this season, yielding just 3.25 runs per nine innings.

The Rays bullpen, despite coughing up last night's game in extras, has posted a solid 2.25 ERA and 0.96 WHIP over the last seven games. Take Tampa Bay -1.5 runs (10*).

My selection is on Oakland +1.5 runs over Seattle at 9:40 pm et on Friday.

We can make the case that the bullpens are a wash based on recent form and with that in mind, I’m comfortable backing the A’s with an insurance run as they open this divisional showdown against the Mariners on Friday.

Marco Gonzales will get the nod for Seattle. He owns a 5.10 FIP and 1.41 WHIP while giving up just shy of 4.9 runs per nine innings this season. The A’s will be seeing him for the fourth time this season having racked up nine earned runs in 18 1/3 innings so far.

Cole Irvin gets the start for the A’s. He’s turned it around lately, lowering his FIP to 3.91 and WHIP to 1.05 while yielding only 3.41 runs per nine innings. Interestingly, Irvin will be making his first start against the Mariners this season. He’s actually struggled in his career against Seattle but I’m willing to give him the benefit of the doubt here, noting that he has posted a 1.66 ERA and 0.87 WHIP in 11 home starts this season. Take Oakland +1.5 runs (8*).

My selection is on San Diego -0.5 runs first five innings over Washington at 9:40 pm et on Friday.

The Padres dropped the opener of this series 3-1 last night, turning in a lifeless performance in their first game back home off a road trip. We missed with San Diego on the run-line in that game but will come right back with it on Friday, laying the half-run in the first five innings only.

San Diego's bullpen has been disappointing as a whole this season and after last night's game, the case can be made for the Nationals 'pen inexplicably being in better current form.

Here, we'll get behind Padres starter Blake Snell who has turned things around, lowering his FIP to 2.85 and his WHIP to 1.27. Walks are always going to be an issue but Snell has done a good job of minimizing the damage by allowing just 0.7 home runs and striking out 12.0 batters per nine innings.

The Nats have had a tough time against left-handed starting pitching this season, going 11-29 and averaging only 3.6 runs per game, compared to their season scoring average of 3.8 runs per contest.

Paolo Espino will counter for Washington. Unlike Snell, he's had a tough time keeping the ball in the park, allowing 1.7 home runs per nine innings. He sports a 4.80 FIP and 1.29 WHIP on the campaign. Also note that he gives up 2.7 more hits per nine innings compared to Snell. Take San Diego -0.5 runs first five innings (8*).

My selection is on San Diego -1.5 runs over Washington at 9:40 pm et on Thursday.

I like betting on good starting pitchers to bounce back from poor outings and that's precisely what we'll do with Padres starter Yu Darvish on Thursday.

Darvish has actually been on the mound for losses in each of his last two starts with the most recent coming against the same Nationals club he'll face on Thursday. He certainly didn't have his best stuff against the Nats last time out but I'm confident we'll see him bounce back here, noting he owns a 3.36 FIP and 1.01 WHIP while allowing only 3.4 runs per nine innings this season. Darvish has been at his best at home, posting a 2.17 ERA and 0.81 WHIP in 10 starts.

Washington will hand the ball to journeyman starter Anibal Sanchez on Thursday. He actually opposed Darvish in that 4-3 Nats victory last week. Let's not get too excited though as Sanchez still owns an ugly 7.48 FIP and 1.60 WHIP while yielding 7.5 runs per nine innings in 30 innings of work this season.

The Nats bullpen has been awful on the road this season, recording a collective 5.56 ERA and 1.49 WHIP while converting 12 saves and blowing seven. The Padres 'pen has gone through a rough stretch recently but seems to be working its way out of it having entered yesterday's game with a collective 3.86 ERA over the last seven games before tossing 4 2/3 shutout innings against the Marlins. Here at home this season, the San Diego 'pen owns a 3.29 ERA and 1.05 WHIP with 14 saves converted and seven blown. Take San Diego -1.5 runs (8*).

My selection is on Arizona +1.5 runs over San Francisco at 9:45 pm et on Tuesday.

This one falls just on the edge of our play range in terms of price. With that being said, a strong case can certainly be made for the D'Backs to be favored in this game and I think we're fortunate to have the opportunity to grab an insurance run (which we often like to have when backing Arizona - note that nine of its last 16 losses have come by a single run).

Merill Kelly gets the start for the D'Backs on Tuesday. He's actually been one of the best starting pitchers in baseball for an extended stretch this season. Kelly sports a 3.16 FIP and 1.14 WHIP while allowing just 3.08 runs per nine innings.

The Giants will give the ball to Jake Junis. It's been a mixed bag for him since returning from injury last month. Junis owns a 3.63 FIP and 1.20 WHIP while giving up just shy of 3.8 runs per nine innings this season. Note that he allows 1.0 more hit and 0.5 more home runs per nine innings compared to Kelly.

Entering last night's action, the D'Backs bullpen had recorded a collective 3.20 ERA and 1.07 WHIP over the last seven games while the Giants 'pen continued to struggled, posting a 5.66 ERA and 1.84 WHIP over that same stretch. Take Arizona +1.5 runs (8*).

My selection is on Oakland +1.5 runs over Texas at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday.

With the bullpens virtually a wash in this matchup and the A's holding what I consider to be a significant starting pitching advantage, we'll back the visitors with an insurance run here.

JP Sears was a key piece coming over to the A's from the Yankees in the Frankie Montas trade. He didn't disappoint in his A's debut last week, allowing just two earned runs over 5 1/3 innings of work against the Angels. In 27 1/3 big league innings pitched this season, Sears has posted a 2.93 FIP and 0.81 WHIP while allowing just 2.3 runs per nine innings.

The Rangers will send Kohei Arihara to the mound for his first start of the season. He's struggled to the tune of a 4.88 ERA and 1.32 WHIP at the AAA level this season and that's after recording an ugly 6.76 FIP and 1.43 WHIP while yielding just shy of 6.9 runs per nine innings with the Rangers last season. Take Oakland +1.5 runs (8*).

N.L. East Game of the Year. My selection is on New York +1.5 runs over Atlanta at 7:20 pm et on Tuesday.

We won with the Braves in the first five innings in the opener of this series last night but I won't hesitate to go the other way and back the Mets on the run-line on Tuesday.

New York will hand the ball to Taijuan Walker, who will be out for revenge after giving up a whopping eight earned runs over just one inning against these same Braves two starts back. He bounced back nicely with a quality outing against the Reds last time out and I'm confident he can do a much better job against Atlanta this time around. Note that the last time he pitched here at Truist Park, he guided New York to a 3-1 victory last season. Walker enters this outing sporting a 3.61 FIP and 1.20 WHIP this season, yielding only 3.51 runs per nine innings.

Entering last night's contest, the Mets bullpen hadn't allowed a single earned run over its last seven games, posting a 0.92 WHIP over that stretch. New York's relief corps owns a collective 3.72 ERA and 1.22 WHIP while converting 16 saves and blowing only six on the road this season (also entering last night's action).

Charlie Morton will counter for Atlanta. He checks in with a 4.14 FIP and 1.21 WHIP, allowing 4.4 runs per nine innings this season. The Mets will be getting their third look at Morton this season having already plated nine earned runs in 10 2/3 innings in their previous two games against him.

Atlanta's bullpen has been terrific lately but has blown 11 saves (while converting 18) at home this season. Also note that the Braves relief corps has been a little more overworked than the Mets' lately, logging 27 1/3 innings over the last seven games, while New York's 'pen has been pressed into duty for less than 20 innings over the same stretch (entering this series). Take New York +1.5 runs (10*).

My selection is on Los Angeles +1.5 runs over Minnesota at 9:05 pm et on Saturday.

The Twins snapped a three-game skid, taking the opener of this series with relative ease last night. I look for the Angels to give them all they can handle on Saturday, however.

Dylan Bundy will take the ball for Minnesota. He's struggled lately and let's face it, he's struggled for the majority of his big league career. Bundy checks in with a 4.30 FIP and 1.30 WHIP this season, allowing just north of 5.2 runs per nine innings.

Also note that the Twins bullpen entered this series sporting a collective 5.72 ERA and 1.59 WHIP over the last seven games, having converted just eight saves while also blowing eight on the road this season.

Reid Detmers will counter for Los Angeles. He owns a 4.24 FIP and 1.05 WHIP while holding the opposition to only 3.54 runs per nine innings this season. Note that the Twins are just 17-15 against left-handed starting pitching this season, averaging 4.2 runs per game (compared to their 4.5 runs per game season scoring average).

The Angels bullpen entered last night's action having posted a collective 2.42 ERA and 0.85 WHIP over the last seven contests. Take Los Angeles +1.5 runs (8*).

My selection is on Detroit +0.5 runs first five innings over Chicago at 7:10 pm et on Saturday.

We'll grab the half-run of insurance with the Tigers in the first five innings on Saturday as I do feel they have an advantage in terms of the starting pitching matchup.

Matt Manning will get the start for Detroit. He's logged only 20 innings so far this season but has made the most of them, recording a 4.27 FIP and 1.10 WHIP while allowing only 2.25 runs per nine innings. Last time out he tossed seven shutout innings against the Rays but the Tigers bullpen couldn't hold up in an eventual loss. That's been the story a lot lately as the Detroit 'pen has been downright awful and we'll look to avoid that relief corps by playing the first five innings only here.

Lucas Giolito has been high on our fade list all season long and we won't reverse course here. Giolito checks in with a 4.28 FIP and 1.51 WHIP, allowing 5.25 runs per nine innings. The Tigers have already seen him twice this season, winning both of those games. They most recently plated five earned runs over 6 2/3 innings against Giolito right here in Chicago back on July 8th. Take Detroit +0.5 runs first five innings (8*).

My selection is on Los Angeles -1.5 runs over Kansas City at 7:10 pm et on Saturday.

I'm anticipating a lopsided result in favor of the Dodgers on Saturday in Kansas City as they send Andrew Heaney to the hill against Brad Keller of the Royals.

Heaney has been solid since returning from injury, posting a 2.34 FIP and 1.00 WHIP while holding the opposition to just 2.25 runs per nine innings this season. Behind Heaney is an elite Dodgers bullpen that brought terrific form into this series having recorded a collective 1.80 ERA and 0.72 WHIP over the last seven games.

Brad Keller has endured another trying season for the Royals, recording a 4.35 FIP and 1.37 WHIP while giving up 4.9 runs per nine innings. Note that the Dodgers are 53-21 and average 5.4 runs per game against right-handed starting pitching this season.

The Kansas City bullpen has struggled for much of the season and entered last night's action sporting a collective 4.57 ERA and 1.29 WHIP over the last seven contests. Take Los Angeles -1.5 runs (10*).

N.L. Non-Division Game of the Week. My selection is on San Francisco -0.5 runs first five innings over Pittsburgh at 10:15 pm et on Friday.

As we still don’t trust the Giants bullpen, we’ll back them in the first five innings only on Friday as they have a considerable starting pitching edge with All-Star Carlos Rodon taking the hill against Bryse Wilson of the Pirates.

Rodon enters Friday’s start sporting a terrific 2.28 FIP and 1.07 WHIP while allowing only 3.02 runs per nine innings this season. He absolutely baffled the Pirates in a start against them earlier this season, tossing eight shutout innings of two-hit ball.

Bryse Wilson is one of the weakest links in the Pirates rotation and that’s saying something. He has recorded a 5.06 FIP and 1.52 WHIP this season, yielding a whopping 6.82 runs per nine innings.

There’s no real advantage for the Giants in the later innings of this one as their bullpen continues to under-achieve, having posted a collective 4.62 ERA and 1.42 WHIP over the last seven games, not to mention converting only 10 saves at home this season (four blown). Take San Francisco -0.5 runs first five innings (10*).

My selection is on Houston -1.5 runs over Oakland at 8:10 pm et on Friday.

There’s quite simply no comparison between these two teams which lie at opposite ends of the A.L. West spectrum this season.

The A’s will hand the ball to struggling rookie Adam Oller on Friday. He checks in with a 7.15 FIP and 1.79 WHIP while allowing just north of 8.2 runs per nine innings.

His counterpart on Friday will be Luis Garcia of the Astros. While not an elite starter by any stretch, he’s been more than serviceable in the Astros starting rotation, posting a 4.03 FIP and 1.10 WHIP while allowing 4.33 runs per nine innings this season.

Houston’s bullpen has been lights out at home all season, recording a collective 2.01 ERA and 0.94 WHIP while converting 15 saves and blowing only five (entering yesterday’s action). Take Houston -1.5 runs (8*).

My selection is Los Angeles -1.5 runs over Kansas City at 8:10 pm et on Friday.

While the Royals are coming off a stunning series sweep of the division rival White Sox, I expect Friday’s result to be much more straightforward as they host the Dodgers.

Los Angeles will send All-Star Tony Gonsolin to the mound for the series opener. He checks in with a 3.47 FIP and 0.89 WHIP this season, yielding only 2.38 runs per nine innings. Behind Gonsolin is a Dodgers bullpen that has posted a collective 1.80 ERA and 0.72 WHIP over the last seven games.

The Royals will hand the ball to left-hander Daniel Lynch. He owns a 4.08 FIP and 1.52 WHIP while giving up just over 5.0 runs per nine innings on the campaign.

The Kansas City bullpen did its best to cough up yesterday’s game against the White Sox but ultimately held on to finish the series sweep. Note that the Royals ‘pen owned a 4.50 ERA and 1.50 WHIP at home this season, entering yesterday’s contest. Take Los Angeles -1.5 runs (8*).

My selection is on San Diego -1.5 runs over Washington at 7:05 pm et on Friday.

This one sets up exceptionally well for the Padres as they head to Washington to face the lowly Nationals on Friday.

Mike Clevinger will take the ball for San Diego. He’s having a fine season having posted a 3.98 FIP and 1.12 WHIP while allowing just 3.74 runs per nine innings. Behind Clevinger is a Padres bullpen that has recorded a collective 3.52 ERA and 1.39 WHIP over the last seven games.

Cory Abbott was awful in limited work for the Cubs last season and has been equally bad in 12 2/3 innings with the Nationals this year. Abbott checks in with an 8.88 FIP and 1.50 WHIP while allowing 5.68 runs per nine innings.

The Nationals bullpen has struggled for much of the campaign and has certainly had a tough time lately, posting a collective 6.29 ERA and 1.64 WHIP over its last seven contests. Take San Diego -1.5 runs (8*).

A.L. West Game of the Month. My selection is on Houston -1.5 runs over Texas at 8:10 pm et on Wednesday.

The Astros added to the Rangers misery with a 7-5 victory last night and I anticipate more of the same on Wednesday.

Texas will hand the ball to Glenn Otto. To say he's struggled this season would be an understatement. Otto checks in with a 5.19 FIP and 1.41 WHIP while allowing north of 5.5 runs per nine innings. He's given up 2.1 more hits, 0.5 more home runs and 2.9 more walks per nine innings compared to his counterpart on this night, Astros ace Justin Verlander.

Verlander is having another terrific campaign, having posted a 2.98 FIP and 0.85 WHIP while holding the opposition to just shy of 2.3 runs per nine innings. He's an A.L. Cy Young Award candidate once again to be sure.

Behind Verlander is an Astros bullpen that has been lights out lately and for much of the season, particularly at home. Over the last seven games, the Astros 'pen has recorded a collective 0.48 ERA and 0.75 WHIP. Take Houston -1.5 runs (10*).

My selection is on Miami +1.5 runs over Philadelphia at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday.

While we're being asked to lay a steep price to grab the insurance run with the Marlins here, the fact that we're able to get the +1.5 at all is a steal in my opinion. The case can certainly be made for the Marlins to be favored in this matchup but I will grab that insurance run as they've had a knack for finding ways to lose games lately.

Sandy Alcantara will take the ball for Miami. He is of course one of the top contenders for the N.L. Cy Young Award this season having posted a 2.86 FIP and 0.94 WHIP while allowing just 2.27 runs per nine innings. After a shaky outing in Pittsburgh, Alcantara bounced back in a big way last time out, tossing a complete game shutout against the Reds (we won with the Marlins in that game).

Noah Syndergaard will counter for the Phillies. He's having a fine season but certainly doesn't boast the same sort of numbers as Alcantara. The veteran right-hander sports a 3.85 FIP and 1.27 WHIP while giving up 4.24 runs per nine innings.

Behind Syndergaard is a struggling Phillies bullpen that has recorded a collective 6.75 ERA and 1.71 WHIP over the last seven games. In stark contrast, the Marlins 'pen has posted a 1.45 ERA and 1.07 WHIP over the same stretch. Take Miami +1.5 runs (8*).

My selection is on New York -0.5 runs first five innings over Cincinnati at 7:10 pm et on Tuesday.

While I realize the Reds don't have a wealth of starting pitching talent that's ready for the big league level right now, it's still hard to believe that they continue to trot out veteran left-hander Mike Minor every five days.

To say that Minor has struggled this season would be an understatement. He checks in sporting a 6.57 FIP and 1.57 WHIP while yielding north of 6.8 runs per nine innings. We can no longer blame it on a small sample size either as he's logged 11 starts covering a span of 56 2/3 innings.

The Mets will counter with Carlos Carrasco on Tuesday. He's pitched well lately, lowering his FIP to 3.44 and his WHIP to 1.28 and has given up just north of 3.8 runs per nine innings this season. Carrasco allows 1.0 fewer hits, 1.6 fewer walks and perhaps most importantly 1.6 fewer home runs per nine innings when compared to Minor this season.

The reason we're laying the half-run with the Mets in the first five innings only again tonight (we won with the same play last night) is the fact that their bullpen has been unsteady lately, recording a collective 5.48 ERA and 1.52 WHIP over the last seven games. Over that same stretch, the Reds 'pen has posted a terrific 2.42 ERA and 1.12 WHIP. Take New York -0.5 runs first five innings (8*).

My selection is on Arizona -0.5 runs first five innings over Pittsburgh at 9:40 pm et on Monday.

We have enough of a starting pitching advantage to support the D'Backs at an admittedly steep price point in the first five innings in Monday's series-opener against the Pirates.

Pittsburgh will hand the ball to Tyler Beede. He's logged 41 2/3 innings this season and hasn't fared particularly well, recording a 4.36 FIP and 1.49 WHIP while giving up 4.1 runs per nine innings. In comparison with his counterpart on Monday, Zac Gallen, he has allowed 2.5 more hits and 1.5 more walks per nine innings.

Gallen is having a fine season having posted a 3.68 FIP and 1.04 WHIP while allowing only 3.64 runs per nine innings.

The only reason I hesitate to back the D'Backs for the full game here is the fact that the Pirates bullpen has been lights out lately, recording a collective 1.99 ERA and 1.23 WHIP over the last seven games. The D'Backs meanwhile have converted just 10 saves while blowing eight at home this season. Take Arizona -0.5 runs first five innings (8*).

My selection is on New York -0.5 runs first five innings over Cincinnati at 7:10 pm et on Monday.

The Mets are rolling right now and there's little reason to expect the Reds to serve as anything more than a speedbump on Monday. With that being said, New York's bullpen has struggled to the tune of an ERA north of 6.00 and a 1.56 WHIP over the last seven games and I like the way the starting pitching matchup sets up so we'll back it in the first five innings only here.

Cincinnati will give Justin Dunn his first big league start of the season. He's struggled at the minor league level here in 2022, posting a 6.75 ERA and 1.82 WHIP in 28 innings of work. Of course, he hasn't found much success at the big league level in his career either, most recently posting a 4.74 FIP and 1.31 WHIP with the Mariners last season.

Chris Bassitt will counter for New York. He was terrific in his most recent start, tossing seven shutout innings against Washington. On the season he has recorded a 3.71 FIP and 1.12 WHIP while giving up just shy of 3.7 runs per nine innings. Take New York -0.5 runs first five innings (8*).

My selection is on San Francisco -0.5 runs over Oakland at 7:05 pm et on Saturday.

While Giants starter Carlos Rodon has struggled since the All-Star break, I’m anticipating a return to form against the A’s on Saturday.

Rodon still owns a terrific 2.28 FIP and 1.07 WHIP on the season, giving up just 3.07 runs per nine innings. Here, he’ll face an A’s offense that averages only 3.2 runs per game against left-handed starting pitching this season.

Adam Oller will take the ball for Oakland. He’s generally been awful this season, recording a 7.15 FIP and 1.73 WHIP while giving up a whopping 8.38 runs per nine innings.

With the Giants bullpen struggling over an extended period (not to mention just 11 saves converted and eight blown on the road this season - entering last night’s action), we’ll look to back them in the first five innings only on Saturday. Take San Francisco -0.5 runs first five innings (8*).

My selection is on Tampa Bay -0.5 runs first five innings over Detroit at 6:10 pm et on Saturday.

The Rays own a considerable starting pitching advantage in this matchup as they hand the ball to their ace Shane McClanahan against Tigers rookie Garrett Hill. With the bullpens virtually a wash, we’ll lay the half-run with Tampa Bay in the first five innings only here.

McClanahan is actually coming off one of his worst outings of the season, allowing five earned runs in just 4 1/3 innings of work against Cleveland. I’m confident he’ll bounce back against the light-hitting Tigers on Saturday, noting that the left-hander owns a terrific 2.63 FIP and 0.83 WHIP while allowing only 2.43 runs per nine innings this season.

Hill on the other hand has faded after a solid start, with his FIP rising to 5.65 and his WHIP to 1.35 while giving up an average of 5.88 runs per nine innings. Take Tampa Bay -0.5 runs first five innings (8*).

My selection is on Philadelphia -0.5 runs first five innings over Washington at 6:05 pm et on Saturday.

It’s not often we give the Phillies a decisive starting pitching advantage with Ranger Suarez on the mound but we will do so tonight as the left-hander takes the ball against fellow southpaw Patrick Corbin of the Nationals.

Suarez checks in with a 3.83 FIP and 1.35 WHIP while allowing 4.26 runs per nine innings this season. Not great numbers by any means but certainly superior to those of Corbin who sports an ugly 4.66 FIP and 1.77 WHIP while yielding just shy of 7.5 runs per nine innings.

Note that the Nationals have gone a woeful 11-24 against left-handed starting pitching this season.

Given the fact that the Phillies bullpen has been struggling, posting a collective 7.71 ERA and 1.57 WHIP over the last seven games (entering last night’s action), we’ll back them in the first five innings only on Saturday. Take Philadelphia -0.5 runs first five innings (8*).

My selection is on Houston -0.5 runs first five innings over Cleveland at 7:10 pm et on Thursday.

We'll back the Astros in the first five innings only on Thursday as their edge lies in the starting pitching matchup rather than in the later innings as the Guardians bullpen has been outstanding lately.

Justin Verlander will get the start for Houston. He owns a 3.04 FIP and an even more impressive 0.87 WHIP while holding opponents to just 2.4 runs per nine innings this season.

Zach Plesac, meanwhile, checks in with a 4.30 FIP and 1.29 WHIP on the campaign while giving up just north of 5.0 runs per nine frames. Take Houston -0.5 runs first five innings (8*).

N.L. West Game of the Month. My selection is on San Diego -1.5 runs over Colorado at 4:10 pm et on Thursday.

I'm comfortable laying the extra run with the Padres as they host the Rockies on Thursday afternoon in San Diego.

Kyle Freeland will get the start for the Rockies. Interestingly, this will be his fourth start against the Padres this season and the Rockies have won each of the first three. I look for that streak to end here. Note that Freeland has posted a less than impressive 4.28 FIP and 1.34 WHIP this season while allowing north of 5.0 runs per nine innings.

Behind Freeland is a Rockies bullpen that has hit the skids again, recording a collective 5.47 ERA and 1.64 WHIP over the last seven games, entering yesterday's action.

Newly-signed Joe Musgrove will be looking to prove he's worth the monster contract the Padres just gave him. He's well-positioned to do just that having posted a 3.26 FIP and 0.99 WHIP while holding opponents to only 2.97 runs per nine innings this season.

The Padres bullpen went through a recent rough stretch but has since turned it around again, recording a collective 3.86 ERA and 1.00 WHIP over the last seven games. Here at home this season, the Padres have converted 14 saves while blowing only five (entering yesterday's action). Take San Diego -1.5 runs (10*).

My selection is on Milwaukee -0.5 runs first five innings over Pittsburgh at 12:35 pm et on Thursday.

This is one of the biggest starting pitching mismatches you'll find on Thursday's MLB board.

Brandon Woodruff will get the call for the visiting Brewers. He has lowered his FIP to 2.73 and his WHIP to 1.14 while allowing just under 3.9 runs per nine innings this season. The issue with the Brewers is their bullpen which has labored lately and certainly didn't get any better dealing closer Josh Hader to the Padres prior to the trade deadline.

Zach Thompson will counter for the Pirates. He has posted a 5.22 FIP and 1.48 WHIP, yielding 5.64 runs per nine innings on the season. The Brewers have had little trouble against Thompson this season, already seeing him three times previously and plating 10 earned runs while chasing him before the end of the fifth inning in each of those three contests.

By playing the first five innings only we'll look to avoid a Pirates bullpen that has admittedly pitched well, recording a 2.25 ERA and 1.29 WHIP over the last seven games (entering yesterday's action). Take Milwaukee -0.5 runs first five innings (8*).

MLB Revenge Game of the Month. My selection is on Miami -0.5 runs first five innings over Cincinnati at 6:40 pm et on Wednesday.

The Reds have taken the first two games of this series but I look for the Marlins to bounce back with their ace on the hill on Wednesday.

Veteran left-hander Mike Minor gets another turn in the Reds rotation out of necessity only. He owns a 6.74 FIP and 1.58 WHIP while giving up north of 7.0 runs per nine innings this season. While the Marlins have struggled to put runs on the board against left-handed starting pitching, I'm confident they can get to Minor in this one.

Sandy Alcantara hasn't necessarily had his best stuff in his last couple of outings but his overall numbers tell the story as he has recorded a 2.87 FIP and 0.94 WHIP while holding opponents to just 2.41 runs per nine innings.

After dealing a pair of key bullpen arms to Toronto, I'm only interested in backing the Marlins in the first five innings in this one. We have a decisive enough edge in terms of the starting pitching matchup to lay the half-run with Miami in the first half here. Take Miami -0.5 runs first five innings (10*).

My selection is on New York -0.5 runs first five innings over Washington at 4:05 pm et on Wednesday.

The Mets have a considerable starting pitching advantage in Wednesday's series finale in Washington as they hand the ball to Chris Bassitt against journeyman right-hander Anibal Sanchez of the Nationals.

Bassitt is having another fine campaign having posted a 3.79 FIP and 1.13 WHIP while giving up only 3.91 runs per nine innings. He faced the Nats once back in April and tossed six shutout innings.

Sanchez owns a 6.75 FIP and 1.40 WHIP while yielding a whopping 7.47 runs per nine innings. Here, he'll be starting on just four days' rest after getting tagged for six earned runs over 5 2/3 innings against the Cardinals last time out.

There's no real edge in terms of the bullpens in this matchup, surprisingly enough. With that in mind, we'll lay the half-run with the Mets in the first five innings only. Take New York -0.5 runs first five innings (8*).

My selection is on Philadelphia +1.5 runs over Atlanta at 12:20 pm et on Wednesday.

I'll gladly grab the insurance run with the Phillies in the finale of this brief two-game series in Atlanta on Wednesday.

Zack Wheeler will get the start for Philadelphia. He checks in sporting a 2.84 FIP and 1.03 WHIP while giving up only 3.09 runs per nine innings this season. In 23 career outings against Atlanta, Wheeler owns a solid 3.19 ERA and 1.25 WHIP. 

Behind Wheeler is a Phillies bullpen that entered last night's action with a 3.52 ERA and 1.13 WHIP over its last seven games. On the road this season, the Phillies have converted 16 saves while blowing eight.

Charlie Morton will counter for Atlanta. He has recorded a 4.07 FIP and 1.25 WHIP while giving up 4.5 runs per nine innings. The Phillies have already seen Morton three times previously this season, reaching him for 10 earned runs in 15 innings. 

The Atlanta bullpen has posted a collective 4.22 ERA and 1.22 WHIP over the last seven contests and has blown 10 saves (while making good on 18) at home this season, again entering last night's action. Take Philadelphia +1.5 runs (8*).